Publications
Listed here are publications, reports and articles by the Land Change Science Program in the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area.
Filter Total Items: 1181
Simulating past and future refugia for temperate trees in northern Italy Simulating past and future refugia for temperate trees in northern Italy
During the Quaternary, trees responded to the climatic changes of glacial–interglacial cycles with large-scale range shifts. Over cold glacials, temperate tree species contracted their ranges and survived in areas known as refugia. Several studies point to the Euganean Hills (Colli Euganei), in Veneto, northern Italy, as one of the northernmost European refugia of temperate tree species...
Authors
Azzurra Pistone, Paul Henne, Petra Boltshauser-Kaltenrieder, Willy Tinner, Christoph Schworer
Initial condition uncertainty exerts a large and persistent influence on model simulations of ecosystem carbon dynamics in California Initial condition uncertainty exerts a large and persistent influence on model simulations of ecosystem carbon dynamics in California
Uncertainties in terrestrial ecosystem models limit their predictive power. Efforts to reduce projection error have rarely focused on constraining uncertainty in the initial state of the ecosystem, however, despite evidence that matching model initial conditions to real-world observations reduces overall model bias. Here we use an integrated land change and carbon gain-loss model to...
Authors
Paul C. Selmants, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Colin J. Daniel
The Python Energy Balance model for Snow and Ice (PEBSI): Application and tradeoff analysis on Gulkana Glacier, Alaska The Python Energy Balance model for Snow and Ice (PEBSI): Application and tradeoff analysis on Gulkana Glacier, Alaska
Glacier energy-balance models offer mechanistic insights into glacier mass balance under a changing climate, yet their considerable data requirements hinder large-scale applications. Here we present the open-source Python Energy Balance model for Snow and Ice (PEBSI), which includes physically based albedo evolution using the Snow, Ice and Aerosol Radiative (SNICAR) model. PEBSI is...
Authors
Claire V. Wilson, David R. Rounce, Louis Sass, Albin Wells, Emily H. Baker, Mark Flanner, S. Mackenzie Skiles
Millennial-scale climatic and cultural impacts on vegetation and fire at the southern edge of the Rocky Mountains, USA Millennial-scale climatic and cultural impacts on vegetation and fire at the southern edge of the Rocky Mountains, USA
Mountain forests and woodlands in semiarid regions of the world are threatened by climatic change and other human impacts. In the southwestern USA, climate and culturally driven changes to the structure and fire regimes of dry coniferous forests over recent centuries are well documented by tree-ring archives. However, the roles of climate and people as drivers of millennial-scale changes...
Authors
Paul D. Henne, Susann Stolze, Natalie Kehrwald, Rebecca Lynn Brice, Craig D. Allen
Extreme Potomac floods at Washington D.C. during the past 500 years Extreme Potomac floods at Washington D.C. during the past 500 years
Washington D.C. faces one of the highest 100-year flood risks of any major city along the U.S. East Coast. In addition to storm-surge inundation during hurricanes and nor'easters, water-level observations for Washington are strongly skewed by major floods on the Potomac River. Using geologic and historic records we find new evidence for ice-jam flooding at Georgetown during the Little...
Authors
Michael Toomey, Thomas M. Cronin, Jessica R. Rodysill, Julia Lynn Seidenstein, Debra A. Willard
Calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphy and floral response to environmental changes recorded in the Pliocene Yorktown Formation, southeastern Virginia, USA Calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphy and floral response to environmental changes recorded in the Pliocene Yorktown Formation, southeastern Virginia, USA
The Pliocene Yorktown Formation, deposited on the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, has played an important role in advancing our knowledge of Pliocene paleoclimate. To refine the age and paleoenvironment of the Yorktown Formation, we analyzed the calcareous nannofossil assemblage and compared it with variations in lithology and calculated sea surface temperature (SST) from previous...
Authors
Masayuki Utsunomiya, Harry J. Dowsett
Causal interpretations can be based on mechanistic knowledge Causal interpretations can be based on mechanistic knowledge
There exists a long-standing disconnect between statistical and mechanistic approaches to the development of causal understanding. Statistical approaches, which have dominated the literature, have focused on the need to obtain perfectly unbiased estimates of causal effects often using either experimental, quasi-experimental or other methods. Mechanistic approaches have instead focused on
Authors
James Grace, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Kevin J. Buffington, Justine Annaliese Neville, Karen M. Thorne, Michael J. Osland, Melinda Martinez, Joel A. Carr, Debra A. Willard
Contribution of traffic emissions to PM2.5 concentrations at bus stops in Denver, Colorado Contribution of traffic emissions to PM2.5 concentrations at bus stops in Denver, Colorado
Individuals are routinely exposed to traffic-related air pollution on their commutes, which has significant health impacts. Mitigating exposure to traffic-related pollution is a key urban sustainability concern. In Denver, Colorado, low-income Americans are more likely to rely on buses and spend time waiting at bus stops. Evaluating the contribution of traffic emissions at bus stops can...
Authors
Priyanka deSouza, Phillip Hopke, Christian L'Orange, Peter Christian Ibsen, Carl Green, Brady Graeber, Brendan Cicione, Ruth Mekonnen, Saadhana Purushothama, Patrick Kinney, John Volckens
High-resolution multi-pollutant mapping in Denver, Colorado High-resolution multi-pollutant mapping in Denver, Colorado
Characterizing traffic-related air pollutants (TRAPs), which significantly impact health, and greenhouse gases (GHGs) can be challenging in urban environments. Mobile monitoring has the potential to capture the spatial distribution of these pollutants. We present results from a campaign using the Denver Mobile Monitoring Laboratory (DMML) in the summer of 2023 when we measured ultrafine...
Authors
Priyanka deSouza, Benjamin Crawford, John L. Durant, Neelakshi Hudda, Peter Christian Ibsen, Christian L'Orange, Jose Jimenez, Brady Graeber, Brendan Cicione, Ruth Mekonnen, Saadhana Purushothama, Ralph Kahn, Patrick L. Kinney, John Volckens
Representing 3-dimensional fuels for physics-based fire behavior models: A general framework and case study in a type-converted post-fire shrubfield Representing 3-dimensional fuels for physics-based fire behavior models: A general framework and case study in a type-converted post-fire shrubfield
Background Physics-based three-dimensional (3D) fire behavior models improve planning for prescribed fire application and wildfire mitigation, but require high spatial resolution 3D fuel models as inputs. While multiple methods and data sources for realistically representing 3D, heterogeneous fuels are available, no unifying framework exists to guide the use of these tools to create 3D...
Authors
Niko J. Tutland, Andreas Paul Wion, Carolina Jasmine May, Grant C. Hutchings, Hope Nowak, James R. Gattiker, J. Kevin Hiers, Rodman R. Linn, Scott M. Pokswinski, Ellis Q. Margolis
The conundrum of taxonomic uniformitarianism in planktic foraminifera The conundrum of taxonomic uniformitarianism in planktic foraminifera
Planktic foraminiferal species distributions in the modern ocean track environmental features like sea surface temperature (SST). Species shift their distributions as the marine environment changes, providing an analogue for past behaviour. Stationarity of species' ecological tolerances is therefore a first-order assumption of all palaeoenvironmental reconstructions based upon modern...
Authors
Harry J. Dowsett, Marci M. Robinson, Kevin M. Foley, Whittney Spivey
A review of abrupt permafrost thaw: Definitions, usage, and a proposed conceptual framework A review of abrupt permafrost thaw: Definitions, usage, and a proposed conceptual framework
Purpose of Review
Authors
Hailey Webb, Matthias Fuchs, Benjamin W. Abbott, Thomas A. Douglas, Clayton D. Elder, Jessica G. Ernakovich, Eugenie Euskirchen, Mathias Göckede, Guido Grosse, Gustaf Hugelius, Miriam C. Jones, Charles Koven, Heather Kropp, Emma Lathrop, Wenwen Li, Michael M. Loranty, Susan M Natali, David Olefeldt, Christina Schädel, Edward A.G. Schuur, Oliver Sonnentag, Jens Strauss, Anna-Maria Virkkala, Merritt R. Turetsky