Publications

Predicting the consequences of alternative actions in terms of the objectives is central to decision making. Modeling in the broadest sense, from simple to complex and based on data or expert judgment, comprises the essential toolkit for making decision-relevant predictions. Gaps in knowledge and the resulting uncertainty can make predictive modeling challenging. Gathering information to

Many decisions are made in the face of uncertainty that either cannot or will not be reduced, and the challenge to the decision maker is how to manage the risk imposed by that uncertainty. This chapter will introduce the field of risk analysis, focusing on both the scientific tasks (estimating the probabilities and magnitudes of possible outcomes) and the policy-relevant value judgments...

Each year, the Director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service), with advice from a Fisheries Management Team, allocates funding to support the National Fish Habitat Action Plan. The Service distributes the funds to Fish Habitat Partnerships (FHPs), who, in turn, undertake projects that “protect, restore, or enhance fish and aquatic habitats or otherwise directly support habitat...

Often, a decision maker is faced with a series of linked decisions, rather than an isolated one-off decision. In natural resource management, it is common to make a similar type of decision on a regular basis (e.g., annually). Such linked decisions have two important properties: they are dynamic, that is, the actions taken early on affect immediate outcomes as well as the effects of...

With ongoing habitat loss and degradation, ever-increasing threats to biodiversity, and limited funding for conservation and management, nearly every natural resource manager routinely faces difficult resource allocation problems. Funding and capacity for natural resource management rarely meet the need, and informed resource allocations are increasingly important. These decision...

To be effective, managers of imperiled species must face the unavoidable tradeoff between conservation benefits and constrained budgets and must not be paralyzed by scientific uncertainty. Decision analysis can help meet these challenges when used to develop cost-effective strategies to recover or improve the status of species. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, along with state...

Coastal wetlands are rich and diverse ecosystems with a wide variety of birdlife and other natural resources. Decision making for coastal wetland management is difficult given the complex nature of these ecological systems and the frequent need to meet multiple objectives for varied resources. Management challenges in the coastal zone are exacerbated by uncertainty about sea level rise...

Data from 38,105 wells were used to characterize fluoride (F) occurrence in untreated United States (U.S.) groundwater. For domestic wells (n = 11,032), water from which is generally not purposely fluoridated or monitored for quality, 10.9% of the samples have F concentrations >0.7 mg/L (U.S. Public Health Service recommended optimal F concentration in drinking water for preventing tooth...

Byrnes et al. (Geo-Marine Letters 39:265–278, Byrnes et al. 2019) present subsidence data for Barataria Basin located south and west of New Orleans in coastal Louisiana to better inform wetland protection and restoration planning by the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority. They measured subsidence using geodetic GPS elevation surveys of rod benchmarks, similar to the...

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered efforts by multiple modeling groups to forecast disease trajectory, assess interventions, and improve understanding of the pathogen. Such models can often differ substantially in their projections and recommendations, reflecting different policy assumptions and objectives, as well as scientific, logistical, and other...

1.Life history theory predicts allocation of energy to reproduction varies with maternal age, but additional maternal features may be important to the allocation of energy to reproduction.We aimed to characterize age‐specific variation in maternal allocation and assess the relationship between maternal allocation and other static and dynamic maternal features.Mass measurements of 531...

Conserving species requires managing threats, including habitat loss. One approach to managing habitat loss is to identify and protect habitat in networks of reserves. Reserve network design is a type of resource allocation problem: how can we choose the most effective reserve network design given available resources? We undertook development and implementation of a patch dynamics model...