Adam Terando, Ph.D.
Adam Terando is a USGS Research Ecologist (Climate Impacts) with the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center. His work focuses on the impacts of global change on ecosystems in the Southeast and U.S. Caribbean, and the complex human-environment relationships that drive these processes.
Biography
A geographer and climatologist by training, Dr. Terando received his Ph.D. in Geography from Pennsylvania State University where he examined the relationship between climate extremes and future crop yields in the U.S. At the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, the overarching goal of his research is to gain insights that will benefit the public and natural resource managers in their efforts to understand and adapt to rapid global climate and land use changes. Currently, his work focuses on four research themes:
1. Uncertainty characterization and quantification for global change predictions
2. Global Climate Model Downscaling
3. Future urbanization and land use change
4. Wildfires, prescribed fire, and climate change
Projects include:
- Developing multi-model ensemble projections of ecologically relevant climate variables for Puerto Rico and the US Caribbean
- Vital Futures: Conservation adaptation planning for landscape and climate change
- Climate change & patch dynamics: Implications for the conservation of amphibians in tropical environments
- Developing long-term urbanization scenarios for the Appalachian and Gulf Coastal Plain and Ozarks LCCs
- Synthesis of climate model downscaling products for the southeastern United States
- Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern U.S.
- SERAP - Southeast Regional Assessment Project
In addition, Adam serves as the federal coordinating lead author for the Southeast chapter of the National Climate Assessment (NCA) and as a chapter author for the U.S. Caribbean regional chapter of the NCA. He is also a member of the Puerto Rico Climate Change Council (PRCCC) and an editor of the Puerto Rico State of the Climate report.
Highlighted Publications:
Costanza, J. and A. Terando, 2019. Landscape connectivity planning for adaptation to future climate and land-use change. Current Landscape Ecology Reports, 4, 1-13.
Carter, L., A. Terando, K. Dow, K. Hiers, K.E. Kunkel, A. Lascurain, D. Marcy, M. Osland, and P. Schramm, 2018. Southeast. In Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA.
Terando, A.J., E. Youngsteadt, E. Meineke, and S. Prado, 2017. Ad hoc instrumentation methods in ecological studies produce highly biased temperature measurements. Ecology and Evolution, 7, 9890-9904.
Terando, A.J., B. Reich, K. Pacifici, J. Costanza, A. McKerrow, and J. Collazo, 2016: Uncertainty quantification and propagation for projections of extremes in monthly area burned under climate change: A case study in the coastal plain of Georgia, USA. In, Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, American Geophysical Union. K. Riley et al., Eds., doi: 10.1002/9781119028116.ch16.
Van Beusekom, W.A. Gould, A.J. Terando, and J. Collazo, 2015: Climate change and water resources in a tropical island system: Propagation of uncertainty from statistically downscaled climate models to hydrologic models. International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.4560.
Terando, A.J., J. Costanza, C. Belyea, R.R. Dunn, A. McKerrow, and J. Collazo, 2014: The Southern Megalopolis: Using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S. PLoS ONE 9(7): e102261. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0102261
Recent Publications (last five years):
Clement, M., J. Nichols, J. Collazo, A. Terando, J. Hines, and S. Williams, 2019. Partitioning global change: assessing the relative importance of changes in climate and land cover for changes in avian distribution. Ecology and Evolution, https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4890.
Costanza, J. and A. Terando, 2019. Landscape connectivity planning for adaptation to future climate and land-use change. Current Landscape Ecology Reports, 4, 1-13.
Carter, L., A. Terando, K. Dow, K. Hiers, K.E. Kunkel, A. Lascurain, D. Marcy, M. Osland, and P. Schramm, 2018. Southeast. In Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA.
Gould, W.A., E.L. Díaz, (co-leads), N.L. Álvarez-Berríos, F. Aponte-González, W. Archibald, J.H. Bowden, L. Carrubba, W. Crespo, S.J. Fain, G. González, A. Goulbourne, E. Harmsen, E. Holupchinski, A.H. Khalyani, J. Kossin, A.J. Leinberger, V.I. Marrero-Santiago, O. Martínez-Sánchez, K. McGinley, P. Méndez-Lázaro, J. Morell, M.M. Oyola, I.K. Parés-Ramos, R. Pulwarty, W.V. Sweet, A. Terando, and S. Torres-González, 2018. U.S. Caribbean. In Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA.
Collazo, J.A., A.J. Terando, A. Engman, P.F. Fackler, and T.J. Kwak, 2018. Toward a resilience-based conservation strategy for wetlands in Puerto Rico: meeting challenges posed by environmental change. Wetlands, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-018-1080-z.
Terando, A.J., S. Prado, and E. Youngsteadt, 2018. Construction of a compact low-cost radiation shield for air temperature sensors in ecological field studies. Journal of Visualized Experiments, e58273.
Bhardwaj, A., V. Misra, A. Mishra, A. Wootten, R. Boyles, J.H. Bowden, and A.J. Terando, 2018. Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Climatic Change, 147, 133-147.
Sanchez, G.M., J.W. Smith, A. Terando, G. Sun, and R.K. Meentemeyer, 2018. Spatial patterns of development drive water use. Water Resources Research, 54, 1633-1649.
Terando, A.J., E. Youngsteadt, E. Meineke, and S. Prado, 2018: Accurate near surface air temperature measurements are necessary to gauge large-scale ecological responses to global climate change. Ecology and Evolution (Reply to Letter to the Editor), 8, 5233-5234.
Terando, A.J., E. Youngsteadt, E. Meineke, and S. Prado, 2017. Ad hoc instrumentation methods in ecological studies produce highly biased temperature measurements. Ecology and Evolution, 7, 9890-9904.
Dowdy, K.E., J.A. Collazo, K. Pacifici, B.J. Reich, A.R. Puente-Rolón, and A.J. Terando, 2017: Occupancy and abundance of Elutherodactylus wightmanae and E. brittoni along elevational gradients in west-central Puerto Rico. Caribbean Naturalist, 40, 1-18.
Dowdy, K.E., J.A. Collazo, K. Pacifici, B.J. Reich, A.R. Puente-Rolón, and A.J. Terando, 2017. Occupancy and abundance of Eleutherodactylus frogs in coffee plantations in Puerto Rico. Herpetologica, 73, 297-306.
Enquist, C., S. Jackson, G. Garfin, F. Davis, L. Gerber, J. Littell, J. Tank, A. Terando, et al., 2017. Foundations of Translational Ecology. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 15, 541-550.
Littell, J.S., A.J. Terando, and T.L. Morelli, 2017: Balancing research and service to decision makers. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 15, 598.
Schwartz, M., J.K. Hiers, F.W. Davis, G. Garfin, S.T. Jackson, A.J. Terando, et al., 2017. Developing a translational ecology workforce. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 15, 587-596.
Wootten, A., A. Terando, B. Reich, R. Boyles, F. Semazzi, 2017. Characterizing sources of uncertainty from global climate models and downscaling techniques. Journal of Applied Climatology and Meteorology, 56, 3245-3262.
Terando, A.J., B. Reich, K. Pacifici, J. Costanza, A. McKerrow, and J. Collazo, 2016: Uncertainty quantification and propagation for projections of extremes in monthly area burned under climate change: A case study in the coastal plain of Georgia, USA. In, Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, American Geophysical Union. K. Riley et al., Eds, doi: 10.1002/9781119028116.ch16.
Wootten, A., J.H. Bowden, R. Boyles, and A. Terando, 2016: The sensitivity of WRF downscaled precipitation in Puerto Rico in cumulus parameterization and interior grid nudging. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55, 2263-2281.
Khalyani, A.H., W.A. Gould, E. Harmsen, A.J. Terando, and J. Collazo, 2016: Climate change implications for tropical islands: Interpolating and interpreting statistically downscaled GCM projections for management and planning. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55, 265-282.
Van Beusekom, W.A. Gould, A.J. Terando, and J. Collazo, 2015: Climate change and water resources in a tropical island system: Propagation of uncertainty from statistically downscaled climate models to hydrologic models. International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.4560.
Costanza, J., A. Terando, A.J. McKerrow, and J. Collazo, 2015: Modeling climate change, urbanization, and fire effects on Pinus palustris ecosystems in the southeastern U.S. Journal of Environmental Management, 151, 186-199.
Youngsteadt, E., A.G. Dale, A.J. Terando, R.R. Dunn, and S.D. Frank, 2015: Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming. Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/gcb.12692.
Terando, A.J., J. Costanza, C. Belyea, R.R. Dunn, A. McKerrow, and J. Collazo, 2014: The Southern Megalopolis: Using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S. PLoS ONE 9(7): e102261. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0102261
Peer Reviewed Reports
Runkle, J., K. Kunkel, L. E. Stevens, S. Champion, D. Easterling, A. Terando, L. Sun, B.C. Stewart, and G. Landers, 2018: Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands State Climate Summary. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 149-PR, 4pp.
Jenni, K.E., Goldhaber, M.B., Betancourt, J.L., Baron, J.S., Bristol, R.S., Cantrill, Mary, Exter, P.E., Focazio, M.J., Haines, J.W., Hay, L.E., Hsu, Leslie, Labson, V.F., Lafferty, K.D., Ludwig, K.A., Milly, P.C., Morelli, T.L., Morman, S.A., Nassar, N.T., Newman, T.R., Ostroff, A.C., Read, J.S., Reed, S.C., Shapiro, C.D., Smith, R.A., Sanford, W.E., Sohl, T.L., Stets, E.G., Terando, A.J., Tillitt, D.E., Tischler, M.A., Toccalino, P.L., Wald, D.J., Waldrop, M.P., Wein, Anne, Weltzin, J.F., and Zimmerman, C.E., 2017: Grand challenges for integrated USGS science—A workshop report: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2017–1076, 94 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171076.
Costanza, J., S. Beck, M. Pyne, A. Terando, M. Rubino, R. White, and J. Collazo, 2016: Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern United States. USGS Open-File Report, 2016-1073.
Wootten, A., K. Smith, R. Boyles, A. Terando, L. Stefanova, V. Misra, T. Smith, D. Blodgett, and F. Semazzi, 2014: Downscaled climate projections for the Southeast U.S.: Evaluation and use for ecological applications. USGS Open File Report 2014-1190.
Terando, A., S. Traxler, and J. Collazo, 2014: Landscape and climate science and scenarios for Florida: A workshop sponsored by the Peninsular Florida Landscape Conservation Cooperative and North Carolina State University. USGS Open File Report 2014-1150.
Sun, G., P.V. Caldwell, A.P. Georgakakos, S. Arumugam, J. Cruise, R.T. McNider, A. Terando, P.A. Conrads, J. Feldt, V. Misra, L. Romolo, T.C. Rasmussen, S.G. McNulty, and D.A. Marion, 2013: Impacts of climate change and variability on water resources in the Southeast USA. In, Climate of the Southeast United States: Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability. Washington DC, Island Press. K.T. Ingram, K. Dow, and L. Carter, Eds.
Dow, K., L. Carter, A. Brosius, E. Diaz, R. Durbrow, R. Evans, S. Fauver, T. Hayden, B. Howard, K. Jacobs, g. Landers, S. McNulty, J. Nicholson, D. Quattrochi, L. Rimer, S. Shuford, S. Stiles, and A. Terando, 2013: Climate adaptations in the Southeast USA. In, Climate of the Southeast United States: Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability. NCA Regional Input Reports. K.T. Ingram et al., Eds. DOI 10.5822/978-1-61091-509-0_13.
Jacobs, K.R., A. Terando, and E.L. Diaz, 2012: Working Group 1: Geophysical and chemical scientific knowledge. In Puerto Rico’s State of the Climate: Assessing Puerto Rico’s Social-Ecological Vulnerabilities in a Changing Climate, E. Diaz and K. Jacobs, eds.
Terando, A. and A. McKerrow, 2010: Seeing the forest fire through the trees: Integrating multiple data streams to model the presettlement fire regime in the longleaf pine ecosystem. In Proceedings of the Second All-USGS Modeling Conference, February 11-14, 2008: Painting the Big Picture. USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2009-5013. S.R. Brady, eds.
Science and Products
Strategic Habitat Conservation and Adaptive Strategies for the Conservation of Coqui Frogs in Puerto Rico
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources need to develop a plan of action to help the recovery of two endangered species in the genus Eleutherodactylus (commonly known as “coqui”), while also reducing the risk that 14 other coqui species would be added to the Endangered Species list. Prior work by these researchers has identified...
Understanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review
Climate change represents one of the foremost drivers of ecological change, yet its documented impacts on biodiversity remain uncertain and complex. Although there have been many published studies on species shifting their geographic ranges in response to climate change, it is still challenging to identify the specific mechanisms and conditions that facilitate range shifts in some species and...
Climate Change Implications for the Conservation of Amphibians in Tropical Environments
Climate and land use change will strongly affect tropical island ecosystems and trust species (like migratory birds and threatened and endangered species). The risks of significant negative impacts are likely to be higher in these island systems than in many temperate regions of the world because of the limited size of their land masses, high numbers of species that only exist in narrowly...
Conservation Adaptation Planning for Landscape and Climate Change in the Southeast
The Southeast is currently undergoing high rates of population growth, urbanization, and land use change while also experiencing climatic changes. These changes are and will continue to threaten wildlife and their habitats. Most existing conservation programs and activities, however, focus on maintaining systems in their current condition, or returning them to a historic state, rather than...
Webinar: Geo Data Portal: Translating Climate Data for Geographic Analysis
View this webinar to learn about the Geo Data Portal
SERAP: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Terrestrial Species
Researchers from North Carolina State University and the USGS integrated models of urbanization and vegetation dynamics with the regional climate models to predict vegetation dynamics and assess how landscape change could impact priority species, including North American land birds. This integrated ensemble of models can be used to predict locations where responses to climate change are most...
SERAP: Comprehensive Web-based Climate Change Projections: Downscaled Maps and Data
A team of USGS and academic researchers developed a comprehensive web-based dataset of high-resolution (or ‘downscaled’) climate change projections, enabling scientists and decision-makers to better assess climate related ecosystem impacts. The research team implemented a three-part plan to provide high resolution climate data for the impact modeling community. First, a database was developed...
SERAP: Modeling of Global and Land Use Change Impacts
The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and...
Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP): Assessing Global Change Impacts on Natural and Human Systems in the Southeast
The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and...
Development of the Geo Data Portal to Make Climate Projections and Scientific Data More Accessible to Users
This project brought together a team of researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and universities to develop a comprehensive web-based dataset of high-resolution (or ‘downscaled’) climate change projections, to enable scientists and decision-makers to better assess climate related ecosystem impacts. Currently, scientists and resource managers often find it difficult to use downscaled...
Perspective: Developing flow policies to balance the water needs of humans and wetlands requires a landscape scale approach inclusive of future scenarios and multiple timescales
Maintenance of the natural flow regime is essential for continued wetland integrity; however, the flow regime is greatly influenced by both natural and anthropogenic forces. Wetlands may be particularly susceptible to altered flow regimes as they are directly impacted by water flows at a variety of time scales. In Puerto Rico, contemporary water...
Murry, Brent; Bowden, Jared; Branoff, Benjamin; Garcia-Bermudez, Miguel; Middleton, Beth; Ortiz-Zayas, Jorge; Restrepo, Carla; Terando, Adam Landscape connectivity planning for adaptation to future climate and land-use change
Purpose of ReviewWe examined recent literature on promoting habitat connectivity in the context of climate change (CC) and land-use change (LUC). These two global change forcings have wide-reaching ecological effects that are projected to worsen in the future. Improving connectivity is a common adaptation strategy, but CC and LUC can also degrade...
Costanza, Jennifer K.; Terando, Adam J. Southeast
The Southeast includes vast expanses of coastal and inland low-lying areas, the southern portion of the Appalachian Mountains, numerous high-growth metropolitan areas, and large rural expanses. These beaches and bayous, fields and forests, and cities and small towns are all at risk from a changing climate. While some climate change...
Reidmiller, D. R.; Avery, C. W.; Easterling, D. R.; Kunkel, K. E.; Lewis, K. L. M.; Maycock, T. K.; Stewart, B. C.; Carter, Lynne; Terando, Adam J.; Dow, Kirstin; Hiers, Kevin; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Lascurain, Aranzazu R.; Marcy, Doug; Osland, Michael J.; Schramm, Paul U.S. Caribbean
Historically, the U.S. Caribbean region has experienced relatively stable seasonal rainfall patterns, moderate annual temperature fluctuations, and a variety of extreme weather events, such as tropical storms, hurricanes, and drought. However, the Caribbean climate is changing and is projected to be increasingly variable as levels of...
Reidmiller, D. R.; Avery, C. W.; Easterling, D. R.; Kunkel, K. E.; Lewis, K. L. M.; Maycock, T. K.; Stewart, B. C.; Gould, William A.; Diaz, Ernesto L.; Álvarez-Berríos, Nora L.; Aponte-González, Felix; Archibald, Wayne; Bowden, Jared H.; Carrubba, Lisamarie; Crespo, Wanda; Fain, Stephen J.; González, Grizelle; Goulbourne, Annmarie; Harmsen, Eric; Holupchinski, Eva; Khalyani, Azad H.; Kossin, James P.; Leinberger, Amanda J.; Marrero-Santiago, Vanessa I.; Martínez-Sánchez, Odalys; McGinley, Kathleen; Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo; Morrell, Julio; Meléndez Oyola, Melissa; Parés-Ramos, Isabel K.; Pulwarty, Roger; Sweet, William V.; Terando, Adam J.; Torres-González, Sigfredo Construction of a compact low-cost radiation shield for air-temperature sensors in ecological field studies
With the advent of small, low-cost environmental sensors, it is now possible to deploy high-density networks of sensors to measure hyper localized temperature variation. Here, we provide a detailed methodology for constructing a compact version of a previously described custom-fabricated radiation shield for use with inexpensive thermochrons.
Terando, Adam J.; Prado, Sara G.; Youngsteadt, Elsa Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
Average annual temperature for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands has increased by more than 1.5°F since 1950. Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected by the end of the 21st century, including increases in extreme heat events. Future changes in total precipitation are uncertain, but extreme...
Champion, Sarah; Easterling, David; Terando, Adam J.; Sun, Liqiang; Stewart, Brooke C.; Landers, Glenn; Runkle, Jennifer; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Stevens, Laura E.; Champion, Sarah; Easterling, David; Terando, Adam; Sun, Liqiang; Stewart, Brooke C.; Landers, Glenn Spatial patterns of development drive water use
Water availability is becoming more uncertain as human populations grow, cities expand into rural regions and the climate changes. In this study, we examine the functional relationship between water use and the spatial patterns of developed land across the rapidly growing region of the southeastern United States. We quantified the spatial pattern...
Sanchez, G.M.; Smith, J.W.; Terando, Adam J.; Sun, G.; Meentemeyer, R.K. Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model
We present results from 20-year “high-resolution” regional climate model simulations of precipitation change for the sub-tropical island of Puerto Rico. The Japanese Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model (NHM) operating at a 2-km grid resolution is nested inside the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) at 10-km grid resolution, which in turn is...
Bhardwaj, Amit; Misra, Vasubandhu; Mishra, A.; Adrienne Wootten; Boyles, Ryan; Bowden, J.H.; Terando, Adam J. Occupancy and abundance of Eleutherodactylus wightmanae and E. brittoni along elevational gradients in west-central Puerto Rico
Populations of Eleutherodactylus species in Puerto Rico have declined in recent decades due to habitat loss and long-term climatic changes. The conservation of these habitat specialists requires an understanding of factors influencing their abundance and distribution, which at present is scant. We estimated occupancy probability and the...
Monroe, Kelen D. ; Collazo, Jaime A.; Pacifici, Krishna; Reich, Brian J.; Puente-Rolón, Alberto R.; Terando, Adam J. Balancing research and service to decision makers
No abstract available.
Littell, Jeremy; Terando, Adam J.; Morelli, Toni Lyn Ad hoc instrumentation methods in ecological studies produce highly biased temperature measurements
In light of global climate change, ecological studies increasingly address effects of temperature on organisms and ecosystems. To measure air temperature at biologically relevant scales in the field, ecologists often use small, portable temperature sensors. Sensors must be shielded from solar radiation to provide accurate temperature measurements...
Terando, Adam J.; Youngsteadt, Elsa; Meineke, Emily K.; Prado, Sara G. Developing a translational ecology workforce
We define a translational ecologist as a professional ecologist with diverse disciplinary expertise and skill sets, as well as a suitable personal disposition, who engages across social, professional, and disciplinary boundaries to partner with decision makers to achieve practical environmental solutions. Becoming a translational ecologist...
Schwartz, Mark W.; Hiers, J. Kevin; Davis, Frank W.; Garfin, Gregg; Jackson, Stephen T.; Terando, Adam J.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Morelli, Toni Lyn; Williamson, Matthew A.; Brunson, Mark W.
Scientists Predict Massive Urban Growth, Creation of ’Megalopolis’ in Southeast in Next 45 Years
Urban areas in the Southeastern United States will double in size by 2060 unless there are significant changes to land development, according to a new study by the Department of Interior’s Southeast Climate Science Center and North Carolina State University.