Adam Terando, Ph.D.
Adam Terando is a USGS Research Ecologist (Climate Impacts) with the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center. His work focuses on the impacts of global change on ecosystems in the Southeast and U.S. Caribbean, and the complex human-environment relationships that drive these processes.
Biography
A geographer and climatologist by training, Dr. Terando received his Ph.D. in Geography from Pennsylvania State University where he examined the relationship between climate extremes and future crop yields in the U.S. At the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, the overarching goal of his research is to gain insights that will benefit the public and natural resource managers in their efforts to understand and adapt to rapid global climate and land use changes. Currently, his work focuses on four research themes:
1. Uncertainty characterization and quantification for global change predictions
2. Global Climate Model Downscaling
3. Future urbanization and land use change
4. Wildfires, prescribed fire, and climate change
Projects include:
- Developing multi-model ensemble projections of ecologically relevant climate variables for Puerto Rico and the US Caribbean
- Vital Futures: Conservation adaptation planning for landscape and climate change
- Climate change & patch dynamics: Implications for the conservation of amphibians in tropical environments
- Developing long-term urbanization scenarios for the Appalachian and Gulf Coastal Plain and Ozarks LCCs
- Synthesis of climate model downscaling products for the southeastern United States
- Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern U.S.
- SERAP - Southeast Regional Assessment Project
Highlighted Publications:
Kupfer, J.A., A.J. Terando, P. Gao, C. Teske, and J.K. Hiers. Climate change projected to reduce prescribed burn opportunities in the Southeastern US. Accepted, International Journal of Wildland Fire.
Costanza, J. and A. Terando, 2019. Landscape connectivity planning for adaptation to future climate and land-use change. Current Landscape Ecology Reports, 4, 1-13.
Carter, L., A. Terando, K. Dow, K. Hiers, K.E. Kunkel, A. Lascurain, D. Marcy, M. Osland, and P. Schramm, 2018. Southeast. In Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA.
Terando, A.J., E. Youngsteadt, E. Meineke, and S. Prado, 2017. Ad hoc instrumentation methods in ecological studies produce highly biased temperature measurements. Ecology and Evolution, 7, 9890-9904.
Terando, A.J., B. Reich, K. Pacifici, J. Costanza, A. McKerrow, and J. Collazo, 2016: Uncertainty quantification and propagation for projections of extremes in monthly area burned under climate change: A case study in the coastal plain of Georgia, USA. In, Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, American Geophysical Union. K. Riley et al., Eds., doi: 10.1002/9781119028116.ch16.
Terando, A.J., J. Costanza, C. Belyea, R.R. Dunn, A. McKerrow, and J. Collazo, 2014: The Southern Megalopolis: Using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S. PLoS ONE 9(7): e102261. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0102261
Recent Publications (last five years):
Youngsteadt E. and A.J. Terando. Ecology of urban climates: The need for landscape biophysics in cities. Accepted, In, Urban Ecology: Its Nature and Challenges. [Barbosa, P. (ed.)]. CABI.
Kupfer, J.A., A.J. Terando, P. Gao, C. Teske, and J.K. Hiers. Climate change projected to reduce prescribed burn opportunities in the Southeastern US. Accepted, International Journal of Wildland Fire.
Sanchez, G.M., A. Terando, J.W. Smith, A.M. Garcia, C. Wagner, and R.K. Meentemeyer. Forecasting water demand in a rapidly urbanizing megaregion. Accepted, Science of the Total Environment.
Van Metre, P.C., I. Waite, S. Qi, B. Mahler, A. Terando, M. Wieczorek, M. Meador, P. Bradley, C. Journey, T. Schmidt, and D. Carlisle, 2019. Projected urban growth in the Southeastern USA puts small streams at risk. Plos One, e0222714.
Murry, B, J. Bowden, B. Branoff, M. García-Bermúdez, B.A. Middleton, J.R. Ortiz-Zayas, C. Restrepo, and A. Terando. Perspective: developing flow policies to balance the water needs of humans and wetlands requires a landscape scale approach inclusive of future scenarios and multiple timescales. Wetlands, 39, 1329-1341.
Clement, M., J. Nichols, J. Collazo, A. Terando, J. Hines, and S. Williams, 2019. Partitioning global change: assessing the relative importance of changes in climate and land cover for changes in avian distribution. Ecology and Evolution, https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4890.
Costanza, J. and A. Terando, 2019. Landscape connectivity planning for adaptation to future climate and land-use change. Current Landscape Ecology Reports, 4, 1-13.
Carter, L., A. Terando, K. Dow, K. Hiers, K.E. Kunkel, A. Lascurain, D. Marcy, M. Osland, and P. Schramm, 2018. Southeast. In Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA.
Gould, W.A., E.L. Díaz, (co-leads), N.L. Álvarez-Berríos, F. Aponte-González, W. Archibald, J.H. Bowden, L. Carrubba, W. Crespo, S.J. Fain, G. González, A. Goulbourne, E. Harmsen, E. Holupchinski, A.H. Khalyani, J. Kossin, A.J. Leinberger, V.I. Marrero-Santiago, O. Martínez-Sánchez, K. McGinley, P. Méndez-Lázaro, J. Morell, M.M. Oyola, I.K. Parés-Ramos, R. Pulwarty, W.V. Sweet, A. Terando, and S. Torres-González, 2018. U.S. Caribbean. In Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA.
Collazo, J.A., A.J. Terando, A. Engman, P.F. Fackler, and T.J. Kwak, 2018. Toward a resilience-based conservation strategy for wetlands in Puerto Rico: meeting challenges posed by environmental change. Wetlands, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-018-1080-z.
Terando, A.J., S. Prado, and E. Youngsteadt, 2018. Construction of a compact low-cost radiation shield for air temperature sensors in ecological field studies. Journal of Visualized Experiments, e58273.
Bhardwaj, A., V. Misra, A. Mishra, A. Wootten, R. Boyles, J.H. Bowden, and A.J. Terando, 2018. Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Climatic Change, 147, 133-147.
Sanchez, G.M., J.W. Smith, A. Terando, G. Sun, and R.K. Meentemeyer, 2018. Spatial patterns of development drive water use. Water Resources Research, 54, 1633-1649.
Terando, A.J., E. Youngsteadt, E. Meineke, and S. Prado, 2018: Accurate near surface air temperature measurements are necessary to gauge large-scale ecological responses to global climate change. Ecology and Evolution (Reply to Letter to the Editor), 8, 5233-5234.
Terando, A.J., E. Youngsteadt, E. Meineke, and S. Prado, 2017. Ad hoc instrumentation methods in ecological studies produce highly biased temperature measurements. Ecology and Evolution, 7, 9890-9904.
Dowdy, K.E., J.A. Collazo, K. Pacifici, B.J. Reich, A.R. Puente-Rolón, and A.J. Terando, 2017: Occupancy and abundance of Elutherodactylus wightmanae and E. brittoni along elevational gradients in west-central Puerto Rico. Caribbean Naturalist, 40, 1-18.
Dowdy, K.E., J.A. Collazo, K. Pacifici, B.J. Reich, A.R. Puente-Rolón, and A.J. Terando, 2017. Occupancy and abundance of Eleutherodactylus frogs in coffee plantations in Puerto Rico. Herpetologica, 73, 297-306.
Enquist, C., S. Jackson, G. Garfin, F. Davis, L. Gerber, J. Littell, J. Tank, A. Terando, et al., 2017. Foundations of Translational Ecology. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 15, 541-550.
Littell, J.S., A.J. Terando, and T.L. Morelli, 2017: Balancing research and service to decision makers. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 15, 598.
Schwartz, M., J.K. Hiers, F.W. Davis, G. Garfin, S.T. Jackson, A.J. Terando, et al., 2017. Developing a translational ecology workforce. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 15, 587-596.
Wootten, A., A. Terando, B. Reich, R. Boyles, F. Semazzi, 2017. Characterizing sources of uncertainty from global climate models and downscaling techniques. Journal of Applied Climatology and Meteorology, 56, 3245-3262.
Terando, A.J., B. Reich, K. Pacifici, J. Costanza, A. McKerrow, and J. Collazo, 2016: Uncertainty quantification and propagation for projections of extremes in monthly area burned under climate change: A case study in the coastal plain of Georgia, USA. In, Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, American Geophysical Union. K. Riley et al., Eds, doi: 10.1002/9781119028116.ch16.
Wootten, A., J.H. Bowden, R. Boyles, and A. Terando, 2016: The sensitivity of WRF downscaled precipitation in Puerto Rico in cumulus parameterization and interior grid nudging. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55, 2263-2281.
Khalyani, A.H., W.A. Gould, E. Harmsen, A.J. Terando, and J. Collazo, 2016: Climate change implications for tropical islands: Interpolating and interpreting statistically downscaled GCM projections for management and planning. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55, 265-282.
Van Beusekom, W.A. Gould, A.J. Terando, and J. Collazo, 2015: Climate change and water resources in a tropical island system: Propagation of uncertainty from statistically downscaled climate models to hydrologic models. International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.4560.
Costanza, J., A. Terando, A.J. McKerrow, and J. Collazo, 2015: Modeling climate change, urbanization, and fire effects on Pinus palustris ecosystems in the southeastern U.S. Journal of Environmental Management, 151, 186-199.
Youngsteadt, E., A.G. Dale, A.J. Terando, R.R. Dunn, and S.D. Frank, 2015: Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming. Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/gcb.12692.
Peer Reviewed Reports (last five years):
Kunkel, Kenneth E., David R Easterling, Andrew Ballinger, Solomon Bililign, Sarah M Champion, Reide D Corbett, Kathie Dello, Jenny Dissen, James Kossin, Gary Lackmann, Rick Luettich, Baker Perry, Walter Robinson, Laura Stevens, Brooke Stewart, Adam J. Terando, 2020. North Carolina Climate Science Report. North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, 233 pp. https://ncics.org/nccsr.
Runkle, J., K. Kunkel, L. E. Stevens, S. Champion, D. Easterling, A. Terando, L. Sun, B.C. Stewart, and G. Landers, 2018: Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands State Climate Summary. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 149-PR, 4pp.
Jenni, K.E., Goldhaber, M.B., Betancourt, J.L., Baron, J.S., Bristol, R.S., Cantrill, Mary, Exter, P.E., Focazio, M.J., Haines, J.W., Hay, L.E., Hsu, Leslie, Labson, V.F., Lafferty, K.D., Ludwig, K.A., Milly, P.C., Morelli, T.L., Morman, S.A., Nassar, N.T., Newman, T.R., Ostroff, A.C., Read, J.S., Reed, S.C., Shapiro, C.D., Smith, R.A., Sanford, W.E., Sohl, T.L., Stets, E.G., Terando, A.J., Tillitt, D.E., Tischler, M.A., Toccalino, P.L., Wald, D.J., Waldrop, M.P., Wein, Anne, Weltzin, J.F., and Zimmerman, C.E., 2017: Grand challenges for integrated USGS science—A workshop report: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2017–1076, 94 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171076.
Costanza, J., S. Beck, M. Pyne, A. Terando, M. Rubino, R. White, and J. Collazo, 2016: Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern United States. USGS Open-File Report, 2016-1073.
Science and Products
Strategic Habitat Conservation and Adaptive Strategies for the Conservation of Coqui Frogs in Puerto Rico
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources need to develop a plan of action to help the recovery of two endangered species in the genus Eleutherodactylus (commonly known as “coqui”), while also reducing the risk that 14 other coqui species would be added to the Endangered Species list. Prior work by these researchers has identified...
Understanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review
Climate change represents one of the foremost drivers of ecological change, yet its documented impacts on biodiversity remain uncertain and complex. Although there have been many published studies on species shifting their geographic ranges in response to climate change, it is still challenging to identify the specific mechanisms and conditions that facilitate range shifts in some species and...
Climate Change Implications for the Conservation of Amphibians in Tropical Environments
Climate and land use change will strongly affect tropical island ecosystems and trust species (like migratory birds and threatened and endangered species). The risks of significant negative impacts are likely to be higher in these island systems than in many temperate regions of the world because of the limited size of their land masses, high numbers of species that only exist in narrowly...
Conservation Adaptation Planning for Landscape and Climate Change in the Southeast
The Southeast is currently undergoing high rates of population growth, urbanization, and land use change while also experiencing climatic changes. These changes are and will continue to threaten wildlife and their habitats. Most existing conservation programs and activities, however, focus on maintaining systems in their current condition, or returning them to a historic state, rather than...
Webinar: Geo Data Portal: Translating Climate Data for Geographic Analysis
View this webinar to learn about the Geo Data Portal
SERAP: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Terrestrial Species
Researchers from North Carolina State University and the USGS integrated models of urbanization and vegetation dynamics with the regional climate models to predict vegetation dynamics and assess how landscape change could impact priority species, including North American land birds. This integrated ensemble of models can be used to predict locations where responses to climate change are most...
SERAP: Comprehensive Web-based Climate Change Projections: Downscaled Maps and Data
A team of USGS and academic researchers developed a comprehensive web-based dataset of high-resolution (or ‘downscaled’) climate change projections, enabling scientists and decision-makers to better assess climate related ecosystem impacts. The research team implemented a three-part plan to provide high resolution climate data for the impact modeling community. First, a database was developed...
SERAP: Modeling of Global and Land Use Change Impacts
The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and...
Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP): Assessing Global Change Impacts on Natural and Human Systems in the Southeast
The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and...
Development of the Geo Data Portal to Make Climate Projections and Scientific Data More Accessible to Users
This project brought together a team of researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and universities to develop a comprehensive web-based dataset of high-resolution (or ‘downscaled’) climate change projections, to enable scientists and decision-makers to better assess climate related ecosystem impacts. Currently, scientists and resource managers often find it difficult to use downscaled...
Do empirical observations support commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses? A systematic review protocol
Background Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions. In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher...
Rubenstein, Madeleine A.; Weiskopf, Sarah R.; Carter, Shawn; Eaton, Mitchell; Johnson, Ciara; Lynch, Abigail; Miller, Brian W.; Morelli, Toni Lyn; Rodriguez, Mari Angel; Terando, Adam; Thompson, Laura North Carolina State climate report
Our scientific understanding of the climate system strongly supports the conclusion that North Carolina’s climate has changed in recent decades and the expectation that large changes—much larger than at any time in the state’s history—will occur if current trends in greenhouse gas concentrations continue. Even under a scenario where emissions peak...
Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Easterling, David R; Ballinger, Andrew; Bililign, Solomon; Champion, Sarah M; Corbett, D Reide; Dello, Kathie; Dissen, Jenny; Kossin, James P.; Lackmann, Gary; Luettich, Rick; Perry, Baker; Robinson, Walter; Stevens, Laura E.; Stewart, Brooke C.; Terando, Adam Perspective: Developing flow policies to balance the water needs of humans and wetlands requires a landscape scale approach inclusive of future scenarios and multiple timescales
Maintenance of the natural flow regime is essential for continued wetland integrity; however, the flow regime is greatly influenced by both natural and anthropogenic forces. Wetlands may be particularly susceptible to altered flow regimes as they are directly impacted by water flows at a variety of time scales. In Puerto Rico, contemporary water...
Murry, Brent; Bowden, Jared; Branoff, Benjamin; Garcia-Bermudez, Miguel; Middleton, Beth; Ortiz-Zayas, Jorge; Restrepo, Carla; Terando, Adam Landscape connectivity planning for adaptation to future climate and land-use change
Purpose of ReviewWe examined recent literature on promoting habitat connectivity in the context of climate change (CC) and land-use change (LUC). These two global change forcings have wide-reaching ecological effects that are projected to worsen in the future. Improving connectivity is a common adaptation strategy, but CC and LUC can also degrade...
Costanza, Jennifer K.; Terando, Adam J. Southeast
The Southeast includes vast expanses of coastal and inland low-lying areas, the southern portion of the Appalachian Mountains, numerous high-growth metropolitan areas, and large rural expanses. These beaches and bayous, fields and forests, and cities and small towns are all at risk from a changing climate. While some climate change...
Reidmiller, David; Avery, C. W.; Easterling, D. R.; Kunkel, K. E.; Lewis, K. L. M.; Maycock, T. K.; Stewart, B. C.; Carter, Lynne; Terando, Adam J.; Dow, Kirstin; Hiers, Kevin; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Lascurain, Aranzazu R.; Marcy, Doug; Osland, Michael J.; Schramm, Paul U.S. Caribbean
Historically, the U.S. Caribbean region has experienced relatively stable seasonal rainfall patterns, moderate annual temperature fluctuations, and a variety of extreme weather events, such as tropical storms, hurricanes, and drought. However, the Caribbean climate is changing and is projected to be increasingly variable as levels of...
Reidmiller, David; Avery, C. W.; Easterling, D. R.; Kunkel, K. E.; Lewis, K. L. M.; Maycock, T. K.; Stewart, B. C.; Gould, William A.; Diaz, Ernesto L.; Álvarez-Berríos, Nora L.; Aponte-González, Felix; Archibald, Wayne; Bowden, Jared H.; Carrubba, Lisamarie; Crespo, Wanda; Fain, Stephen J.; González, Grizelle; Goulbourne, Annmarie; Harmsen, Eric; Holupchinski, Eva; Khalyani, Azad H.; Kossin, James P.; Leinberger, Amanda J.; Marrero-Santiago, Vanessa I.; Martínez-Sánchez, Odalys; McGinley, Kathleen; Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo; Morrell, Julio; Meléndez Oyola, Melissa; Parés-Ramos, Isabel K.; Pulwarty, Roger; Sweet, William V.; Terando, Adam J.; Torres-González, Sigfredo Construction of a compact low-cost radiation shield for air-temperature sensors in ecological field studies
With the advent of small, low-cost environmental sensors, it is now possible to deploy high-density networks of sensors to measure hyper localized temperature variation. Here, we provide a detailed methodology for constructing a compact version of a previously described custom-fabricated radiation shield for use with inexpensive thermochrons.
Terando, Adam J.; Prado, Sara G.; Youngsteadt, Elsa Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
Average annual temperature for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands has increased by more than 1.5°F since 1950. Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected by the end of the 21st century, including increases in extreme heat events. Future changes in total precipitation are uncertain, but extreme...
Champion, Sarah; Easterling, David; Terando, Adam J.; Sun, Liqiang; Stewart, Brooke C.; Landers, Glenn; Runkle, Jennifer; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Stevens, Laura E.; Champion, Sarah; Easterling, David; Terando, Adam; Sun, Liqiang; Stewart, Brooke C.; Landers, Glenn Spatial patterns of development drive water use
Water availability is becoming more uncertain as human populations grow, cities expand into rural regions and the climate changes. In this study, we examine the functional relationship between water use and the spatial patterns of developed land across the rapidly growing region of the southeastern United States. We quantified the spatial pattern...
Sanchez, G.M.; Smith, J.W.; Terando, Adam J.; Sun, G.; Meentemeyer, R.K. Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model
We present results from 20-year “high-resolution” regional climate model simulations of precipitation change for the sub-tropical island of Puerto Rico. The Japanese Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model (NHM) operating at a 2-km grid resolution is nested inside the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) at 10-km grid resolution, which in turn is...
Bhardwaj, Amit; Misra, Vasubandhu; Mishra, A.; Adrienne Wootten; Boyles, Ryan; Bowden, J.H.; Terando, Adam J. Occupancy and abundance of Eleutherodactylus wightmanae and E. brittoni along elevational gradients in west-central Puerto Rico
Populations of Eleutherodactylus species in Puerto Rico have declined in recent decades due to habitat loss and long-term climatic changes. The conservation of these habitat specialists requires an understanding of factors influencing their abundance and distribution, which at present is scant. We estimated occupancy probability and the...
Monroe, Kelen D. ; Collazo, Jaime A.; Pacifici, Krishna; Reich, Brian J.; Puente-Rolón, Alberto R.; Terando, Adam J. Balancing research and service to decision makers
No abstract available.
Littell, Jeremy S.; Terando, Adam J.; Morelli, Toni Lyn
Land-use and water demand projections (2012 to 2065) under different scenarios of environmental change for North Carolina, South Carolina, and coastal Georgia
Land change and water demand projections were generated as part of the stakeholder-driven assessments of water availability supported by the National Water Census Coastal Carolinas Focus Area Study
Scientists Predict Massive Urban Growth, Creation of ’Megalopolis’ in Southeast in Next 45 Years
Urban areas in the Southeastern United States will double in size by 2060 unless there are significant changes to land development, according to a new study by the Department of Interior’s Southeast Climate Science Center and North Carolina State University.