Adam Terando is a USGS Research Ecologist (Climate Impacts) with the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center. His work focuses on the impacts of global change on ecosystems in the Southeast and U.S. Caribbean, and the complex human-environment relationships that drive these processes.
A geographer and climatologist by training, Dr. Terando received his Ph.D. in Geography from Pennsylvania State University where he examined the relationship between climate extremes and future crop yields in the U.S. At the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, the overarching goal of his research is to gain insights that will benefit the public and natural resource managers in their efforts to understand and adapt to rapid global climate and land use changes. Currently, his work focuses on four research themes:
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Uncertainty characterization and quantification for global change predictions
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Global Climate Model Downscaling
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Future urbanization and land use change
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Wildfires, prescribed fire, and climate change
Education and Certifications
Ph.D. in Geography, Pennsylvania State University
Science and Products
"Climate-smart" fisheries and aquaculture to support resilient aquatic ecosystems in Vietnam
Assessing the Climate Vulnerability of Wild Turkeys Across the Southeastern U.S.
Webinar: Climate Adaptation Science to Support Amphibian Conservation in the U.S. Caribbean
Understanding Prescribed Fire Management in the Context of Climate Change and Landscape Transformation
Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate
Understanding Changing Climate Variables to Clarify Species’ Exposure and Responses to Changing Environments across North America
Strategic Habitat Conservation and Adaptive Strategies for the Conservation of Coqui Frogs in Puerto Rico
Understanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review
Improving Scenarios of Future Patterns of Urbanization, Climate Adaptation, and Landscape Change in the Southeast
Testing the Impacts of Sun Exposure and Impervious Surfaces on the Accuracy of Temperature Sensors
Conservation Adaptation Planning for Landscape and Climate Change in the Southeast
Climate Change Implications for the Conservation of Amphibians in Tropical Environments
Data and Code for Predicting Flood Damage Probability Across the Conterminous United States
Historical and Future Prescribed Burn Windows for the Southeast United States
Land-use and water demand projections (2012 to 2065) under different scenarios of environmental change for North Carolina, South Carolina, and coastal Georgia
Temperature observations from portable data loggers and remote environmental weather stations in North Carolina (2015)
Minimal shift of eastern wild turkey nesting phenology associated with projected climate change
Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: Substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts
Vulnerability of estuarine systems in the contiguous United States to water quality change under future climate and land-use
Compact or sprawling cities: Has the sparing-sharing framework yielded an ecological verdict?
Climate change weakens the impact of disturbance interval on the growth rate of natural populations of Venus flytrap
Visualizing climate change
Predicting flood damage probability across the conterminous United States
Shifting precipitation regimes alter the phenology and population dynamics of low latitude ectotherms
Shifting correlations among multiple aspects of weather complicate predicting future demography of a threatened species
Linking demographic rates to local environmental conditions: Empirical data to support climate adaptation strategies for Eleutherodactylus frogs
Climate change is creating a mismatch between protected areas and suitable habitats for frogs and birds in Puerto Rico
Robust projections of future fire probability for the conterminous United States
Science and Products
- Science
Filter Total Items: 21
"Climate-smart" fisheries and aquaculture to support resilient aquatic ecosystems in Vietnam
The Vietnamese government has committed to climate mitigation and adaptation in support of the Paris Agreement. Implementation of Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to adaptation involves a greater focus on the Mekong River Delta, which is poised to be impacted by sea level rise. Saline intrusion from sea level rise and droughts can affect aquatic ecosystems and the services they p...Assessing the Climate Vulnerability of Wild Turkeys Across the Southeastern U.S.
Wild turkey is a culturally and economically important game species that has shown dramatic population declines throughout much of the southeastern U.S. A possible explanation for these declines is that the timing of nesting has shifted to earlier in the year while hunting seasons have remained the same. Wild turkeys are the only gamebird in the contiguous United States that are hunted during theWebinar: Climate Adaptation Science to Support Amphibian Conservation in the U.S. Caribbean
View this webinar to learn more about a climate-informed adaptation strategy for vulnerable species in the Caribbean.Understanding Prescribed Fire Management in the Context of Climate Change and Landscape Transformation
Prescribed burning is a primary tool used to reduce wildfire risk and manage ecosystems to achieve a range of ecological, economic and societal goals. The ability of fire managers to use prescribed fire as a management tool is complicated in regions such as the Southeast because of rapid population growth, extensive suburban development, and a changing climate. Such change restricts prescribed bu...Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate
Abundant scientific research has characterized the relationships between climate and fire in ecosystems of the United States, and there is substantial evidence that the role of fire in ecosystems is likely to change with a changing climate. Changing fire patterns pose numerous natural resource management challenges and decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require informationUnderstanding Changing Climate Variables to Clarify Species’ Exposure and Responses to Changing Environments across North America
Species across North America are being impacted by changing climate conditions. Plants and animals can respond to these changes in a variety of ways, including by shifting their geographic distributions. Determining whether or not observed biological changes, such as range shifts, are indeed the result of climate change is a key challenge facing natural resource managers and requires clarifying whStrategic Habitat Conservation and Adaptive Strategies for the Conservation of Coqui Frogs in Puerto Rico
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources need to develop a plan of action to help the recovery of two endangered species in the genus Eleutherodactylus (commonly known as “coqui”), while also reducing the risk that 14 other coqui species would be added to the Endangered Species list. Prior work by these researchers has identified fact...Understanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review
Climate change represents one of the foremost drivers of ecological change, yet its documented impacts on biodiversity remain uncertain and complex. Although there have been many published studies on species shifting their geographic ranges in response to climate change, it is still challenging to identify the specific mechanisms and conditions that facilitate range shifts in some species and notImproving Scenarios of Future Patterns of Urbanization, Climate Adaptation, and Landscape Change in the Southeast
Arguably the most direct, intense, and long-lasting modification that humans can make to a landscape is converting rural lands to urbanized areas. As human populations grow, the demand for urbanized areas will increase, and scientists can help natural resource managers plan for these changes by creating models that predict potential patterns of future urbanization. The Southeast U.S. is experienciTesting the Impacts of Sun Exposure and Impervious Surfaces on the Accuracy of Temperature Sensors
To better understand the impacts of climate change, ecological studies are increasingly addressing the different effects of temperature on organisms and ecosystems. To measure air temperature at biologically relevant scales in the field, ecologists often use small, portable temperature sensors. These sensors must be shielded from solar radiation to provide accurate temperature measurements, but aConservation Adaptation Planning for Landscape and Climate Change in the Southeast
The Southeast is currently undergoing high rates of population growth, urbanization, and land use change while also experiencing climatic changes. These changes are and will continue to threaten wildlife and their habitats. Most existing conservation programs and activities, however, focus on maintaining systems in their current condition, or returning them to a historic state, rather than enablinClimate Change Implications for the Conservation of Amphibians in Tropical Environments
Climate and land use change will strongly affect tropical island ecosystems and trust species (like migratory birds and threatened and endangered species). The risks of significant negative impacts are likely to be higher in these island systems than in many temperate regions of the world because of the limited size of their land masses, high numbers of species that only exist in narrowly defined - Data
Data and Code for Predicting Flood Damage Probability Across the Conterminous United States
This data release contains the associated data described in the related primary publication, "Predicting Flood Damage Probability Across the Conterminous United States" (Collins et al. [2022], see Related External Resources section). Publicly available geospatial datasets and random forest algorithms were used to analyze the spatial distribution and underlying drivers of flood damage probability cHistorical and Future Prescribed Burn Windows for the Southeast United States
Prescribed burning is a critical tool for managing wildfire risks and meeting ecological objectives, but its safe and effective application requires that specific meteorological criteria are met. This dataset contains results from a study examining the potential impacts of projected climatic change on prescribed burning in the southeastern United States. A set of burn window criteria (suitable weaLand-use and water demand projections (2012 to 2065) under different scenarios of environmental change for North Carolina, South Carolina, and coastal Georgia
Urban growth and climate change together complicate planning efforts meant to adapt to increasingly scarce water supplies. Several studies have shown the impacts of urban planning and climate change separately, but little attention has been given to their combined impact on long-term urban water demand forecasting. Here we coupled land and climate change projections with empirically-derived coeffiTemperature observations from portable data loggers and remote environmental weather stations in North Carolina (2015)
Temperature data were collected from ~40 portable data (temperature) loggers and two weather stations located in central North Carolina, USA during August 2015. In addition to temperature, solar radiation and wind speed data were recorded at one of the sites to estimate the effects of these climate variables on sensor bias. - Multimedia
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 49
Minimal shift of eastern wild turkey nesting phenology associated with projected climate change
Climate change may induce mismatches between wildlife reproductive phenology and temporal occurrence of resources necessary for reproductive success. Verifying and elucidating the causal mechanisms behind potential mismatches requires large-scale, longer-duration data. We used eastern wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) nesting data collected across the southeastern U.S. over eight yearsAuthorsWesley W. Boone, Christopher E. Moorman, Adam Terando, David J. Moscicki, Bret A. Collier, Michael J. Chamberlain, Krishna PacificiClimate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: Substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts
BackgroundAmong the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depAuthorsMadeleine A. Rubenstein, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Romain Bertrand, Shawn Carter, Lise Comte, Mitchell Eaton, Ciara G. Johnson, Jonathan Lenoir, Abigail Lynch, Brian W. Miller, Toni Lyn Morelli, Mari Angel Rodriguez, Adam Terando, Laura ThompsonVulnerability of estuarine systems in the contiguous United States to water quality change under future climate and land-use
Changes in climate and land-use and land-cover (LULC) are expected to influence surface water runoff and nutrient characteristics of estuarine watersheds, but the extent to which estuaries are vulnerable to altered nutrient loading under future conditions is poorly understood. The present work aims to address this gap through the development of a new vulnerability assessment framework that accountAuthorsLise R. Montefiore, Natalie Nelson, Michelle Staudinger, Adam TerandoCompact or sprawling cities: Has the sparing-sharing framework yielded an ecological verdict?
Purpose of ReviewGlobal urban land area is growing faster than the urban population, raising concerns that sprawling, low-density development will reduce biodiversity and human wellbeing. The sparing-sharing framework, adapted from agroecology, provides one approach to assessing alternative urban growth patterns. It compares ecological outcomes in landscapes matched for total population and land aAuthorsElsa Youngsteadt, Adam Terando, Jennifer K. Costanza, Jelena VukomanovicClimate change weakens the impact of disturbance interval on the growth rate of natural populations of Venus flytrap
Disturbances elicit both positive and negative effects on organisms; these effects vary in their strength and their timing. Effects of disturbance interval (i.e., the length of time between disturbances) on population growth will depend on both the timing and strength of positive and negative effects of disturbances. Climate change can modify the relative strengths of these positive and negative eAuthorsAllison M Louthan, Melina Keighron, Elsita Kiekebusch, Heather Cayton, Adam Terando, William F. MorrisVisualizing climate change
Humans are profoundly affecting the planet, and human-caused, or anthropogenic, climate change is the most visible manifestation of this today. In the graph above, from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are shown from the present (at far right) back through several ice age cycles, to eight hundred thousand years ago (800 kyBCE, or thousAuthorsAdam TerandoPredicting flood damage probability across the conterminous United States
Floods are the leading cause of natural disaster damages in the United States, with billions of dollars incurred every year in the form of government payouts, property damages, and agricultural losses. The Federal Emergency Management Agency oversees the delineation of floodplains to mitigate damages, but disparities exist between locations designated as high risk and where flood damages occur dueAuthorsElyssa Collins, Georgina M. Sanchez, Adam Terando, Charles C. Stillwell, Helena Mitasova, Antonia Sebastian, Ross K. MeentemeyerShifting precipitation regimes alter the phenology and population dynamics of low latitude ectotherms
Predicting how species respond to changes in climate is critical to conserving biodiversity. Modeling efforts to date have largely centered on predicting the effects of warming temperatures on temperate species phenology. In and near the tropics, the effects of a warming planet on species phenology are more likely to be driven by changes in the seasonal precipitation cycle rather than temperature.AuthorsErica H Henry, Adam Terando, William F. Morris, Jaret C. Daniels, Nick M. HaddadShifting correlations among multiple aspects of weather complicate predicting future demography of a threatened species
Most studies of the ecological effects of climate change consider only a limited number of weather drivers that could affect populations, though we know that multiple weather drivers can simultaneously affect population growth rate. Multiple drivers could simultaneously increase/decrease one vital rate, or one may increase a vital rate while another decreases the same vital rate. Considering the iAuthorsAllison M Louthan, Jeffrey R. Walters, Adam Terando, Victoria Garcia, William F. MorrisLinking demographic rates to local environmental conditions: Empirical data to support climate adaptation strategies for Eleutherodactylus frogs
Conducting managed species translocations and establishing climate change refugia are adaptation strategies to cope with projected consequences of global warming, but successful implementation requires on-the-ground validation of demographic responses to transient climate conditions. Here we estimated the effect of nine abiotic and biotic factors on local occupancy and an index of abundance (few oAuthorsA.C. Rivera-Burgos, Jaime A. Collazo, Adam Terando, Krishna PacificiClimate change is creating a mismatch between protected areas and suitable habitats for frogs and birds in Puerto Rico
Climate change is altering the spatial distribution of many species around the world. In response, we need to identify and protect suitable areas for a large proportion of the fauna so that they persist through time. This exercise must also evaluate the ability of existing protected areas to provide safe havens for species in the context of climate change. Here, we combined passive acoustic monitoAuthorsMarconi Campos-Cerqueira, Adam Terando, Brent Murray, Jaime A. Collazo, Mitchell AideRobust projections of future fire probability for the conterminous United States
Globally increasing wildfires have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, providing decision makers with a clear understanding of how future planetary warming could affect fire regimes is complicated by confounding land use factors that influence wildfire and by uncertainty associated with model simulations of climate change. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled GlobalAuthorsPeng Gao, Adam Terando, John A Kupfer, J. Morgan Varner, Michael C. Stambaugh, Ting L Lei, J. Kevin Hiers - News