Adam Terando, Ph.D.
Adam Terando is a USGS Research Ecologist (Climate Impacts) with the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center. His work focuses on the impacts of global change on ecosystems in the Southeast and U.S. Caribbean, and the complex human-environment relationships that drive these processes.
Biography
A geographer and climatologist by training, Dr. Terando received his Ph.D. in Geography from Pennsylvania State University where he examined the relationship between climate extremes and future crop yields in the U.S. At the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, the overarching goal of his research is to gain insights that will benefit the public and natural resource managers in their efforts to understand and adapt to rapid global climate and land use changes. Currently, his work focuses on four research themes:
1. Uncertainty characterization and quantification for global change predictions
2. Global Climate Model Downscaling
3. Future urbanization and land use change
4. Wildfires, prescribed fire, and climate change
Highlighted Publications:
Terando, A., D. Reidmiller, S.W. Hostetler, J.S. Littell, T. D. Beard Jr., S.R. Weiskopf, J. Belnap, and G.S. Plumlee, 2020: Using information from global climate models to inform policymaking – The role of the US Geological Survey. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2020–1058, 32 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201058.
Kupfer, J.A., A.J. Terando, P. Gao, C. Teske, and J.K. Hiers, 2020: Climate change projected to reduce prescribed burn opportunities in the Southeastern US. International Journal of Wildland Fire, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF19198.
Bowden, J.H., A.J. Terando, V. Misra, A. Wootten, A. Bhardwaj, R. Boyles, W. Gould, J. Collazo, and T.L. Spero, 2020: High-resolution dynamically downscaled rainfall and temperature projections for ecological life zones within Puerto Rico and for the US Virgin Islands. International Journal of Climatology, doi.org/10.1002/joc.6810.
Terando, A.J., B. Reich, K. Pacifici, J. Costanza, A. McKerrow, and J. Collazo, 2017: Uncertainty quantification and propagation for projections of extremes in monthly area burned under climate change: A case study in the coastal plain of Georgia, USA. In, Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, American Geophysical Union. K. Riley et al., Eds.
Terando, A.J., J. Costanza, C. Belyea, R.R. Dunn, A. McKerrow, and J. Collazo, 2014: The Southern Megalopolis: Using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S. PLoS ONE 9(7): e102261. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0102261
Science and Products
Assessing direct and indirect effects of climate on wild turkeys across the Southeastern U.S.
Wild turkey is a culturally and economically important game species that has shown dramatic population declines throughout much of the southeastern U.S. A possible explanation for these declines is that the timing of nesting has shifted to earlier in the year while hunting seasons have remained the same. Wild turkeys are the only gamebird in the contiguous United States that are hunted during...
Webinar: Climate Adaptation Science to Support Amphibian Conservation in the U.S. Caribbean
View this webinar to learn more about a climate-informed adaptation strategy for vulnerable species in the Caribbean.
Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate
Abundant scientific research has characterized the relationships between climate and fire in ecosystems of the United States, and there is substantial evidence that the role of fire in ecosystems is likely to change with a changing climate. However, there is considerable local-to-regional heterogeneity in the observed and projected changes, driven by the historical and current patterns in fuel...
Strategic Habitat Conservation and Adaptive Strategies for the Conservation of Coqui Frogs in Puerto Rico
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources need to develop a plan of action to help the recovery of two endangered species in the genus Eleutherodactylus (commonly known as “coqui”), while also reducing the risk that 14 other coqui species would be added to the Endangered Species list. Prior work by these researchers has identified...
Understanding Changing Climate Variables to Clarify Species’ Exposure and Responses to Changing Environments across North America
Species across North America are being impacted by changing climate conditions. Plants and animals can respond to these changes in a variety of ways, including by shifting their geographic distributions. Determining whether or not observed biological changes, such as range shifts, are indeed the result of climate change is a key challenge facing natural resource managers and requires...
Understanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review
Climate change represents one of the foremost drivers of ecological change, yet its documented impacts on biodiversity remain uncertain and complex. Although there have been many published studies on species shifting their geographic ranges in response to climate change, it is still challenging to identify the specific mechanisms and conditions that facilitate range shifts in some species and...
Climate Change Implications for the Conservation of Amphibians in Tropical Environments
Climate and land use change will strongly affect tropical island ecosystems and trust species (like migratory birds and threatened and endangered species). The risks of significant negative impacts are likely to be higher in these island systems than in many temperate regions of the world because of the limited size of their land masses, high numbers of species that only exist in narrowly...
Conservation Adaptation Planning for Landscape and Climate Change in the Southeast
The Southeast is currently undergoing high rates of population growth, urbanization, and land use change while also experiencing climatic changes. These changes are and will continue to threaten wildlife and their habitats. Most existing conservation programs and activities, however, focus on maintaining systems in their current condition, or returning them to a historic state, rather than...
Testing the Impacts of Sun Exposure and Impervious Surfaces on the Accuracy of Temperature Sensors
To better understand the impacts of climate change, ecological studies are increasingly addressing the different effects of temperature on organisms and ecosystems. To measure air temperature at biologically relevant scales in the field, ecologists often use small, portable temperature sensors. These sensors must be shielded from solar radiation to provide accurate temperature measurements,...
Modeling Future Temperature and Precipitation for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Caribbean
While 21st century temperatures are projected to increase in Puerto Rico and the broader U.S. Caribbean (whose geography is contained within the Caribbean Landscape Conservation Cooperative, or CLCC), the low variability and already high annual average temperatures suggest that the largest climate-related impact on ecosystems and water resources is more likely to be through changes in the...
Webinar: Geo Data Portal: Translating Climate Data for Geographic Analysis
View this webinar to learn about the Geo Data Portal
Assessing Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems in the Southeastern U.S.
The southeastern U.S. contains a unique diversity of ecosystems that provide important benefits, including habitat for rare wildlife and plants, improved water quality, and recreation opportunities. Understanding how climate change will affect these ecosystems is vital for knowing how best to protect them and the services they supply. The goal of this project was to assess the climate change...
Shifting correlations among multiple aspects of weather complicate predicting future demography of a threatened species
Most studies of the ecological effects of climate change consider only a limited number of weather drivers that could affect populations, though we know that multiple weather drivers can simultaneously affect population growth rate. Multiple drivers could simultaneously increase/decrease one vital rate, or one may increase a vital rate while...
Louthan, Allison M; Walters, Jeffrey R.; Terando, Adam; Garcia, Victoria; Morris, William F Climate change is creating a mismatch between protected areas and suitable habitats for frogs and birds in Puerto Rico
Climate change is altering the spatial distribution of many species around the world. In response, we need to identify and protect suitable areas for a large proportion of the fauna so that they persist through time. This exercise must also evaluate the ability of existing protected areas to provide safe havens for species in the context of...
Campos-Cerqueira, Marconi; Terando, Adam; Murray, Brent; Collazo, Jaime; Aide, Mitchell Robust projections of future fire probability for the conterminous United States
Globally increasing wildfires have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, providing decision makers with a clear understanding of how future planetary warming could affect fire regimes is complicated by confounding land use factors that influence wildfire and by uncertainty associated with model simulations of climate change. We...
Gao, Peng; Terando, Adam; Kupfer, John A; Varner, J. Morgan; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Lei, Ting L; Hiers, J. Kevin Tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America: The northward range expansion of tropical organisms in response to warming winter temperatures
Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward‐moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold‐sensitive tropical organisms,...
Osland, Michael; Stevens, Philip; Lamont, Margaret; Brusca, Richard; Hart, Kristen; Waddle, Hardin; Langtimm, Catherine; Williams, Caroline; Keim, Barry; Terando, Adam; Reyier, Eric; Marshall, Katie; Loik, Michael E.; Boucek, Ross; Lewis, Amanda; Seminoff, Jeffrey A. High‐resolution dynamically downscaled rainfall and temperature projections for ecological life zones within Puerto Rico and for the U.S. Virgin Islands
The weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and a combination of the regional spectral model (RSM) and the Japanese Meteorological Agency Non‐Hydrostatic Model (NHM) were used to dynamically downscale selected CMIP5 global climate models to provide 2‐km projections with hourly model output for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Two 20‐...
Bowden, Jared H.; Terando, Adam; Misra, Vasu; Wootten, Adrienne; Bhardwaj, Amit; Boyles, Ryan; Gould, William A.; Collazo, Jaime; Spero, Tanya Ecology of urban climates: The need for landscape biophysics in cities
In this chapter we will review and evaluate the climatic and ecological parallels between urbanization and climate change, with an emphasis on temperature and its effects on terrestrial ectotherms, a group of organisms thought to be particularly sensitive to climate change. We will summarize patterns of urban warming and how they relate to global...
Youngsteadt, Elsa; Terando, Adam
Using information from global climate models to inform policymaking—The role of the U.S. Geological Survey
This report provides an overview of model-based climate science in a risk management context. In addition, it summarizes how the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will continue to follow best scientific practices and when and how the results of this research will be delivered to the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) and other stakeholders to...
Terando, Adam; Reidmiller, David; Hostetler, Steven W.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Beard, T. Douglas; Weiskopf, Sarah R.; Belnap, Jayne; Plumlee, Geoffrey S. Climate change projected to reduce prescribed burning opportunities in the south-eastern United States
Prescribed burning is a critical tool for managing wildfire risks and meeting ecological objectives, but its safe and effective application requires that specific meteorological criteria (a ‘burn window’) are met. Here, we evaluate the potential impacts of projected climatic change on prescribed burning in the south-eastern United States by...
Kupfer, John A; Terando, Adam; Gao, Peng; Teske, Casey; Hiers, J Kevin Do empirical observations support commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses? A systematic review protocol
Background Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions. In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher...
Rubenstein, Madeleine A.; Weiskopf, Sarah R.; Carter, Shawn; Eaton, Mitchell; Johnson, Ciara; Lynch, Abigail; Miller, Brian W.; Morelli, Toni Lyn; Rodriguez, Mari Angel; Terando, Adam; Thompson, Laura Forecasting water demand across a rapidly urbanizing region
Urban growth and climate change together complicate planning efforts meant to adapt to increasingly scarce water supplies. Several studies have independently examined the impacts of urban planning and climate change on water demand, but little attention has been given to their combined impact. Here we forecast urban water demand using a...
Sanchez, Georgina M; Terando, Adam; Smith, Jordan W.; Garcia, Ana M.; Wagner, Chad R.; Meentemeyer, Ross K. North Carolina State climate report
Our scientific understanding of the climate system strongly supports the conclusion that North Carolina’s climate has changed in recent decades and the expectation that large changes—much larger than at any time in the state’s history—will occur if current trends in greenhouse gas concentrations continue. Even under a scenario where emissions peak...
Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Easterling, David R; Ballinger, Andrew; Bililign, Solomon; Champion, Sarah M; Corbett, D Reide; Dello, Kathie; Dissen, Jenny; Kossin, James P.; Lackmann, Gary; Luettich, Rick; Perry, Baker; Robinson, Walter; Stevens, Laura E.; Stewart, Brooke C.; Terando, Adam Projected urban growth in the Southeastern USA puts small streams at risk
Future land-use development has the potential to profoundly affect the health of aquatic ecosystems in the coming decades. We developed regression models predicting the loss of sensitive fish (R2=0.39) and macroinvertebrate (R2=0.64) taxa as a function of urban and agricultural land uses and applied them to projected urbanization of the rapidly...
Van Metre, Peter C.; Waite, Ian R.; Qi, Sharon L.; Mahler, Barbara; Terando, Adam; Wieczorek, Michael; Meador, Michael R.; Bradley, Paul M.; Journey, Celeste A.; Schmidt, Travis S.; Carlisle, Daren
Friday's Findings - February 5 2021
Using Information from Global Climate Models to Inform Policymaking
Date: February 5, 2021 from 2-2:30 p.m. eastern time
Speaker: Adam Terando, Research Ecologist, Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center
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Land-use and water demand projections (2012 to 2065) under different scenarios of environmental change for North Carolina, South Carolina, and coastal Georgia
Land change and water demand projections were generated as part of the stakeholder-driven assessments of water availability supported by the National Water Census Coastal Carolinas Focus Area Study
Scientists Predict Massive Urban Growth, Creation of ’Megalopolis’ in Southeast in Next 45 Years
Urban areas in the Southeastern United States will double in size by 2060 unless there are significant changes to land development, according to a new study by the Department of Interior’s Southeast Climate Science Center and North Carolina State University.