My research interests include fire ecology, landscape ecology, restoration ecology, plant ecology and landscape modeling
Professional Experience
2009-present: Supervisory Research Fire Ecologist, USGS Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Boise, ID
2009: Post Doctoral Position, The Nature Conservatory/U.S. Forest Service Northern Research Station, Madison, WI
Education and Certifications
Ph.D., University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (2006)
M.A., University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (1996)
B.S., Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI (1989)
Science and Products
Fire Ecology in Dynamic Ecosystems Team (FRESC)
Wildland Fire Trends Tool
The Wildfire Trends Tool: A data visualization and analysis tool to meet land management needs and facilitate scientific inquiry
Contributions to the development of the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Sagebrush Conservation Strategy
Vulnerability of Lower-Elevation Aspen Forests to Altered Fire and Climate Dynamics: Assessing Risks and Developing Actionable Science
Cheatgrass and Medusahead
Assessing the Effectiveness of Fuel Breaks for Preserving Greater Sage-Grouse in the Great Basin
Role of Fire and Fuels in Ecological Restoration
Modeling Disturbance and Ecosystem Change at Landscape Scales
Disturbance History in Natural Communities
Greater Sage-Grouse Science (2015–17): Synthesis and Potential Management Implications
Projecting the Effects of Climate Change on Aspen in the Central and Northern Rocky Mountains
If you are unable to access or download a product, email fresc_outreach@usgs.gov a request, including the full citation, or call (541) 750-1030.
Vegetation data from burned and unburned sagebrush communities in eastern Washington (2016)
Northern Nevada aspen (Populus tremuloides) data (2010-2011)
Fuels Database for Intact and Invaded Big Sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) Ecological Sites
If you are unable to access or download a product, email fresc_outreach@usgs.gov a request, including the full citation, or call (541) 750-1030.
Future direction of fuels management in sagebrush rangelands
U.S. Geological Survey wildland fire science strategic plan, 2021–26
Fire frequency impacts soil properties and processes in sagebrush steppe ecosystems of the Columbia Basin
Performance of the ecosystem demography model (EDv2.2) in simulating gross primary production capacity and activity in a dryland study area
Disentangling the effects of multiple fires on spatially interspersed sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) communities
Long term persistence of aspen in snowdrift-dependent ecosystems
Understanding the effect of fire on vegetation composition and gross primary production in a semi-arid shrubland ecosystem using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) model
Developing and optimizing shrub parameters representing sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in the Northern Great Basin using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) model
Post-fire aspen (Populus tremuloides) regeneration varies in response to winter precipitation across a regional climate gradient
Modeling long-term effects of fuel treatments on fuel loads and fire regimes in the Great Basin
Climate and disturbance influence self-sustaining stand dynamics of aspen (Populus tremuloides) near its range margin
Integrating anthropogenic factors into regional-scale species distribution models — A novel application in the imperiled sagebrush biome
Non-USGS Publications**
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
To request an interview, contact fresc_outreach@usgs.gov or call (541) 750-1030.
Science and Products
- Science
Fire Ecology in Dynamic Ecosystems Team (FRESC)
Understanding how fire and other disturbances affect ecosystem health and resiliency is critically important for land managers and for society as a whole.Wildland Fire Trends Tool
The Wildland Fire Trends Tool (WFTT) is a data visualization and analysis tool that calculates and displays wildfire trends and patterns for the western U.S. based on user-defined regions of interest, time periods, and ecosystem types. Users can use the tool to easily generate a variety of maps, graphs, and tabular data products that are informative for all levels of expertise. The WFTT provides...The Wildfire Trends Tool: A data visualization and analysis tool to meet land management needs and facilitate scientific inquiry
Fighting wildfires and reducing their negative effects on natural resources costs billions of dollars annually in the U.S. We will develop the Wildfire Trends Tool (WTT), a data visualization and analysis tool that will calculate and display wildfire trends and patterns for the western U.S. based on user-defined regions of interest, time periods, and ecosystem types. The WTT will be publicly availContributions to the development of the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Sagebrush Conservation Strategy
USGS scientists are contributing to the development of the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Sagebrush Conservation Strategy, a strategy intended to provide guidance so that efforts to conserve the iconic greater sage-grouse can be expanded to the entire sagebrush biome to benefit the people and wildlife that depend on it.Vulnerability of Lower-Elevation Aspen Forests to Altered Fire and Climate Dynamics: Assessing Risks and Developing Actionable Science
Aspen forests are considered keystone ecosystems, meaning that loss of aspen habitat would result in negative impacts to numerous plant and animal species. Aspen also provide important economic and social benefits, including drawing tourists, serving as potential fire breaks, improving local economies, and providing forage for wildlife and livestock. Ecologically-valuable aspen forests are consideCheatgrass and Medusahead
Invasive annual grasses, such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae), are one of the most significant stressors to rangeland ecosystems in the western U.S. Their expansion and dominance across this area are the most damaging ecosystem agents on this iconic landscape.Assessing the Effectiveness of Fuel Breaks for Preserving Greater Sage-Grouse in the Great Basin
Fuel breaks have the potential to minimize catastrophic losses of sagebrush habitat and sage-grouse populations by altering fire behavior and facilitating fire suppression. However, they may carry risks to sage-grouse populations—of habitat loss, fragmentation, cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) invasion, and alteration of sage-grouse movements—that have not been quantified.Role of Fire and Fuels in Ecological Restoration
Fuel loads are important drivers of fire behavior, and fire is an important natural process that can also be used as a tool for ecological restoration purposes. Land managers and fire experts attempt to track and manipulate fuel loads in order to assess fire risk, control fire behavior, and restore ecosystems. Thus, understanding the relationships between fire, vegetation dynamics, and fuel loads...Modeling Disturbance and Ecosystem Change at Landscape Scales
Models can be used to investigate changes in ecosystems and disturbance regimes across large landscapes and over long periods of time, i.e., at spatial and temporal scales that are typically not possible or practical using field-based observational or experimental methods. These spatially explicit models can also be used to investigate complex relationships and interactions among various...Disturbance History in Natural Communities
Disturbance is an important process in most natural communities, shaping ecosystem composition, structure, and function. Studying and quantifying natural disturbance regimes (e.g., fire) often reveal complex relationships with climate, vegetation, and topography, as well as with other disturbance agents (e.g., insects and wind). Characterizing and quantifying past disturbances regimes is also key...Greater Sage-Grouse Science (2015–17): Synthesis and Potential Management Implications
USGS led an interagency team of Federal and State agency biologists to develop a report that synthesizes greater sage-grouse scientific literature.Projecting the Effects of Climate Change on Aspen in the Central and Northern Rocky Mountains
Aspen is an environmentally, economically, and socially important species in the western U.S. It is typically the most abundant deciduous tree species in mountainous landscapes of the western U.S., providing food and habitat for a variety of wildlife, including black bear, deer, elk, moose, and numerous bird species. Aspen woodlands also provide high quality forage for livestock and draw tourists - Data
If you are unable to access or download a product, email fresc_outreach@usgs.gov a request, including the full citation, or call (541) 750-1030.
Vegetation data from burned and unburned sagebrush communities in eastern Washington (2016)
The dataset includes several variables sampled across burned and unburned sagebrush communities located in an approximately 30 square kilometer portion of the Columbia Plateau Ecoregion in eastern Washington, USA. The study area is characterized by landforms interspersed at fine-scales, representative of the channeled scabland topography of the region (Baker 2009), including: "mounds,&Northern Nevada aspen (Populus tremuloides) data (2010-2011)
The dataset includes several variables that were sampled across aspen stands in the Santa Rosa, Ruby, and Jarbidge mountain ranges (Great Basin, Northern Nevada, USA) in 2010 and 2011. Across 101 aspen sites, several plot-level attributes were collected (e.g. elevation, slope, aspen stand type). For each plot, data describing live trees (both those less than 7.5 cm diameter and those greater than/Fuels Database for Intact and Invaded Big Sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) Ecological Sites
The Fuels Guide and Database for Big Sagebrush Ecological Sites was developed as part of the Joint Fire Sciences Program project "Quantifying and predicting fuels and the effects of reduction treatments along successional and invasion gradients in sagebrush habitats" (Shinneman and others, 2015). The research was carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Forest and Rangeland Ecosy - Multimedia
- Publications
If you are unable to access or download a product, email fresc_outreach@usgs.gov a request, including the full citation, or call (541) 750-1030.
Filter Total Items: 33Future direction of fuels management in sagebrush rangelands
Sagebrush ecosystems in the United States have been declining since EuroAmerican settlement, largely due to agricultural and urban development, invasive species, and altered fire regimes, resulting in loss of biodiversity and wildlife habitat. To combat continued conversion to undesirable ecological states and loss of habitat to invasive species fueled by frequent fire, a variety of fuel treatmentU.S. Geological Survey wildland fire science strategic plan, 2021–26
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Wildland Fire Science Strategic Plan defines critical, core fire science capabilities for understanding fire-related and fire-responsive earth system processes and patterns, and informing management decision making. Developed by USGS fire scientists and executive leadership, and informed by conversations with external stakeholders, the Strategic Plan is aligned wiByEcosystems, Natural Hazards, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS), Alaska Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Geology, Geophysics, and Geochemistry Science Center, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)Fire frequency impacts soil properties and processes in sagebrush steppe ecosystems of the Columbia Basin
Increased fire frequency in semi-arid ecosystems can alter biochemical soil properties and soil processes that underpin ecosystem structure and functioning, thus threatening native plant communities and the species that rely on them. However, there is much uncertainty about the magnitude of change as soils are exposed to more fires, because soil recovery and changes in fire severity following a fiPerformance of the ecosystem demography model (EDv2.2) in simulating gross primary production capacity and activity in a dryland study area
Dryland ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon cycle, including regulating the inter-annual global carbon sink. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are essential tools that can help us better understand carbon cycling in different ecosystems. Currently, there is limited knowledge of the performance of these models in drylands partly due to characterizing the heterogeneity of tDisentangling the effects of multiple fires on spatially interspersed sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) communities
QuestionsRelative to a landscape with a mosaic of two sagebrush community types and increasing fire frequency, we asked: (a) do vegetation characteristics vary significantly with number of times burned for each sagebrush community; (b) how do vegetation responses to different fire frequencies compare between the two sagebrush communities?LocationColumbia Plateau Ecoregion, Washington, USA.MethodsWLong term persistence of aspen in snowdrift-dependent ecosystems
Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) forests throughout the western United States have experienced significant mortality in recent decades, much of which has been influenced by climate variability, especially drought. In the western portion of its range, where most precipitation arrives during winter as snowfall and summers are dry, snowdrifts that persist into the growing season provide soil moistUnderstanding the effect of fire on vegetation composition and gross primary production in a semi-arid shrubland ecosystem using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) model
Wildfires in sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) dominated semi-arid ecosystems in the western United States have increased dramatically in frequency and severity in the last few decades. Severe wildfires often lead to the loss of native sagebrush communities and change the biogeochemical conditions which make it difficult for sagebrush to regenerate. Invasion of cheat- grass (Bromus tectorum) accentuatesDeveloping and optimizing shrub parameters representing sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in the Northern Great Basin using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) model
Ecosystem dynamic models are useful for understanding ecosystem characteristics over time and space because of their efficiency over direct field measurements and applicability to broad spatial extents. Their application, however, is challenging due to internal model uncertainties and complexities arising from distinct qualities of the ecosystems being analyzed. The sagebrush-steppe in western NorPost-fire aspen (Populus tremuloides) regeneration varies in response to winter precipitation across a regional climate gradient
Altered climate and changing fire regimes are synergistically impacting forest communities globally, resulting in deviations from historical norms and creation of novel successional dynamics. These changes are particularly important when considering the stability of a keystone species such as quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), which contributes critical ecosystem services across its broadModeling long-term effects of fuel treatments on fuel loads and fire regimes in the Great Basin
The principal motivation for this study is that sagebrush-steppe ecosystems are undergoing significant state changes, and land managers are challenged with optimizing their resources for both short- and long-term use. Yet, limited knowledge is available regarding how the sagebrush-steppe will respond to environmental changes related to precipitation and temperature regimes, and disturbance such asClimate and disturbance influence self-sustaining stand dynamics of aspen (Populus tremuloides) near its range margin
Species that are primarily seral may form stable (self-sustaining) communities under certain disturbance regimes or environmental conditions, yet such populations may also be particularly vulnerable to ecological change. Aspen (Populus spp.) are generally considered seral throughout the northern hemisphere, including P. tremuloides, the most widely distributed tree species in North America. RecentIntegrating anthropogenic factors into regional-scale species distribution models — A novel application in the imperiled sagebrush biome
Species distribution models (SDM) that rely on regional-scale environmental variables will play a key role in forecasting species occurrence in the face of climate change. However, in the Anthropocene, a number of local-scale anthropogenic variables, including wildfire history, land-use change, invasive species, and ecological restoration practices can override regional-scale variables to drive paNon-USGS Publications**
Shinneman, D.J., Palik, B.J., Cornett, M.W., 2012, Can landscape-level ecological restoration influence fire risk? A spatially-explicit assessment of a northern temperate-southern boreal forest landscape: Forest Ecology and Management, v. 274, p. 126-135.Rickenbach, M., Schulte, L.A., Kittredge, D.B., Labich, W.G., Shinneman, D.J., 2011, Cross-boundary cooperation- A mechanism for sustaining ecosystem services from private lands: Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, v. 66, no. 4, p. 91A-96A.Fraver, S., Jain, T.B., Bradford, J.B., D'Amato, A.W., Kastendick, D., Palik, B.J., Shinneman, D.J., Stanovick, J., 2011, The efficacy of salvage logging in reducing subsequent fire severity in conifer-dominated forests of Minnesota, USA: Ecological Applications, v. 21, no. 6, p. 1895-1901.Shinneman, D.J., Cornett, M.W., Palik, B.J., 2010, Simulating restoration strategies for a southern boreal forest landscape with complex land ownership patterns: Forest Ecology and Management, v. 259, p. 446-458.Bauer, M., Loeffelholz, B., Shinneman, D.J., 2009, Border Lakes Land-Cover Classification: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station Research Map NRS-1, p. 14.Shinneman, D.J., Baker, W.L., 2009, Environmental and climatic variables as potential drivers of post-fire cover of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) in seeded and unseeded semiarid ecosystems: International Journal of Wildland Fire, v. 18, p. 191-202.Shinneman, D.J., Baker, W.L., 2009, Historical fire and multidecadal drought as context for piñon–juniper woodland restoration in western Colorado: Ecological Applications, v. 19, no. 5, p. 1231-1245.Sturtevant, B.R., Scheller, R.M., Miranda, B.R., Shinneman, D.J., Syphard, A., 2009, Simulating dynamic and mixed-severity fire regimes- A process-based fire extension for LANDIS-II: Ecological Modelling, v. 220, p. 3380-3393.Shinneman, D.J., Baker, W.L., 2008, Ecological restoration needs derived from reference conditions for a semi-arid landscape in western Colorado, USA: Journal of Arid Environments, v. 72, p. 207-227.Baker, W.L., Shinneman, D.J., 2004, Fire and restoration of piñon–juniper woodlands in the western United States- A review: Forest Ecology and Management, v. 189, p. 1-21.Shinneman, D.J., Baker, W.L., 2000, Impact of logging and roads on a Black Hills ponderosa pine forest landscape In: Knight, R.L., Smith, F.W., Buskirk, S.W., Romme, W.H., Baker, W.L., eds., Forest Fragmentation in the Southern Rocky Mountains: Boulder, CO, University Press of Colorado, p. 311-335.Shinneman, D.J., Baker, W.L., 1997, Nonequilibrium dynamics between catastrophic disturbances and old-growth forests in ponderosa pine landscapes of the Black Hills: Conservation Biology, v. 11, no. 6, p. 1276-1288.**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
- News
To request an interview, contact fresc_outreach@usgs.gov or call (541) 750-1030.
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