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Jordan S Read, PhD (Former Employee)

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Curious smallmouth bass following behind scuba divers in Sparkling Lake, Vilas County, Wis. Photographer: Gretchen Hansen, Wisco

Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change on Fish Growth and Production to Enable Sustainable Management of Diverse Inland Fisheries

Fisheries managers in Midwestern lakes and reservoirs are tasked with balancing multiple management objectives to help maintain healthy fish populations across a landscape of diverse lakes. As part of this, managers monitor fish growth and survival. Growth rates in particular are indicators of population health, and directly influence the effectiveness of regulations designed to protect spawning f
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change on Fish Growth and Production to Enable Sustainable Management of Diverse Inland Fisheries

Fisheries managers in Midwestern lakes and reservoirs are tasked with balancing multiple management objectives to help maintain healthy fish populations across a landscape of diverse lakes. As part of this, managers monitor fish growth and survival. Growth rates in particular are indicators of population health, and directly influence the effectiveness of regulations designed to protect spawning f
Learn More
link
Overlooking the Manistee River

Scoping the Feasibility of Incorporating Climate Change into Risk Assessments of Aquatic Invasive Species in the Upper Midwest

Aquatic invasive species threaten our lakes, streams, and wetlands. These species not only change the biology within the waterbody, but they can change the way we use those waterbodies and the resources they produce. Those changes may have large economic impacts, such as direct management costs and indirect costs to fisheries, tourism and commerce. These species can be small like zebra mussels or
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Scoping the Feasibility of Incorporating Climate Change into Risk Assessments of Aquatic Invasive Species in the Upper Midwest

Aquatic invasive species threaten our lakes, streams, and wetlands. These species not only change the biology within the waterbody, but they can change the way we use those waterbodies and the resources they produce. Those changes may have large economic impacts, such as direct management costs and indirect costs to fisheries, tourism and commerce. These species can be small like zebra mussels or
Learn More
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Vizlab Logo

Water Data Visualizations

Water data visualizations are provocative visuals and captivating stories that inform, inspire, and empower people to address our Nation's most pressing water issues. USGS data science and visualization experts use visualizations to communicate water data in compelling and often interactive ways when static images or written narrative can’t effectively communicate the interconnectivity and...
By
Water Resources
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Water Data Visualizations

Water data visualizations are provocative visuals and captivating stories that inform, inspire, and empower people to address our Nation's most pressing water issues. USGS data science and visualization experts use visualizations to communicate water data in compelling and often interactive ways when static images or written narrative can’t effectively communicate the interconnectivity and...
Learn More
link
Lake Michigan near Grand Haven, Michigan

Webinar: Variable Warming in Lakes of the Upper Midwest and Implications for Sport Fish

Check out this webinar to learn more about how warming temperatures are affecting lakes in the Midwest and the fish they support.
By
Ecosystems, Climate Adaptation Science Centers
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Webinar: Variable Warming in Lakes of the Upper Midwest and Implications for Sport Fish

Check out this webinar to learn more about how warming temperatures are affecting lakes in the Midwest and the fish they support.
Learn More
link
Lake Huran

Fish Habitat Restoration to Promote Adaptation: Resilience of Sport Fish in Lakes of the Upper Midwest

Many Midwestern lakes are experiencing warming water temperatures as a result of climate change. In general, this change is causing coldwater fish species such as cisco and coolwater species such as walleye to decline. Meanwhile, warmer water species such as largemouth and smallmouth bass are increasing as temperatures warm. However, some fish populations are more vulnerable to these changes than
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Fish Habitat Restoration to Promote Adaptation: Resilience of Sport Fish in Lakes of the Upper Midwest

Many Midwestern lakes are experiencing warming water temperatures as a result of climate change. In general, this change is causing coldwater fish species such as cisco and coolwater species such as walleye to decline. Meanwhile, warmer water species such as largemouth and smallmouth bass are increasing as temperatures warm. However, some fish populations are more vulnerable to these changes than
Learn More
link
Image: Prairie Pothole Region

Understanding Historical and Predicting Future Lake Temperatures in North and South Dakota

Lakes, reservoirs, and ponds are central and integral features of the North Central U.S. These water bodies provide aesthetic, cultural, and ecosystem services to surrounding wildlife and human communities. External impacts – such as climate change – can have significant impacts to these important parts of the region’s landscape. Understanding the responses of lakes to these drivers is critical fo...
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Understanding Historical and Predicting Future Lake Temperatures in North and South Dakota

Lakes, reservoirs, and ponds are central and integral features of the North Central U.S. These water bodies provide aesthetic, cultural, and ecosystem services to surrounding wildlife and human communities. External impacts – such as climate change – can have significant impacts to these important parts of the region’s landscape. Understanding the responses of lakes to these drivers is critical fo...
Learn More
link
Lake Michigan with Storm Clouds

Developing Adaptation Strategies for Recreational and Tribal Fisheries in the Upper Midwest

Fisheries in the glacial lakes region of the upper Midwest are culturally, economically, and recreationally beneficial. Walleye, for instance, represent an important subsistence food source for some Wisconsin tribal nations and are also popular among recreational anglers. However, predicted ecological changes to these aquatic communities, such as an increase in invasive fish species, a decrease in
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Developing Adaptation Strategies for Recreational and Tribal Fisheries in the Upper Midwest

Fisheries in the glacial lakes region of the upper Midwest are culturally, economically, and recreationally beneficial. Walleye, for instance, represent an important subsistence food source for some Wisconsin tribal nations and are also popular among recreational anglers. However, predicted ecological changes to these aquatic communities, such as an increase in invasive fish species, a decrease in
Learn More
link
Clear blue lake with green trees in the background and blue sky with clouds reflected in the water

“Hyperscale” Modeling to Understand and Predict Temperature Changes in Midwest Lakes

Many inland waters across the United States are experiencing warming water temperatures. The impacts of this warming on aquatic ecosystems are significant in many areas, causing problems for fisheries management, as many economically and ecologically important fish species are experiencing range shifts and population declines. Fisheries and natural resource managers need timely and usable data and
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

“Hyperscale” Modeling to Understand and Predict Temperature Changes in Midwest Lakes

Many inland waters across the United States are experiencing warming water temperatures. The impacts of this warming on aquatic ecosystems are significant in many areas, causing problems for fisheries management, as many economically and ecologically important fish species are experiencing range shifts and population declines. Fisheries and natural resource managers need timely and usable data and
Learn More
link
USGS science for a changing world logo

sbtools: An R package for ScienceBase

Science is an increasingly collaborative endeavor. In an era of Web-enabled research, new tools reduce barriers to collaboration across traditional geographic and disciplinary divides and improve the quality and efficiency of science. Collaborative online code management has moved project collaboration from a manual process of email and thumb drives into a traceable, streamlined system where code
By
Community for Data Integration (CDI)
link

sbtools: An R package for ScienceBase

Science is an increasingly collaborative endeavor. In an era of Web-enabled research, new tools reduce barriers to collaboration across traditional geographic and disciplinary divides and improve the quality and efficiency of science. Collaborative online code management has moved project collaboration from a manual process of email and thumb drives into a traceable, streamlined system where code
Learn More
link
View from beach through beachgrass of Frankfort Lighthouse, Michigan in Lake Michigan

An Assessment of Midwestern Lake and Stream Temperatures under Climate Change

Water temperatures are warming in lakes and streams, resulting in the loss of many native fish. Given clear passage, coldwater stream fishes can take refuge upstream when larger streams become too warm. Likewise, many Midwestern lakes “thermally stratify” resulting in warmer waters on top of deeper, cooler waters. Many of these lakes are connected to threatened streams. To date, assessments of the...
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

An Assessment of Midwestern Lake and Stream Temperatures under Climate Change

Water temperatures are warming in lakes and streams, resulting in the loss of many native fish. Given clear passage, coldwater stream fishes can take refuge upstream when larger streams become too warm. Likewise, many Midwestern lakes “thermally stratify” resulting in warmer waters on top of deeper, cooler waters. Many of these lakes are connected to threatened streams. To date, assessments of the...
Learn More
link
USGS science for a changing world logo

Continental-scale overview of stream primary productivity, its links to water quality, and consequences for aquatic carbon biogeochemistry

Streams and rivers have a limited spatial extent, but are increasingly recognized as key components of regional biogeochemical cycles. The collective metabolic processing of organisms, known as ecosystem metabolism, is centrally important to nutrient cycling and carbon fluxes in these environments, but is poorly integrated into emerging biogeochemical concepts. This line of inquiry lags behind oth
By
John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
link

Continental-scale overview of stream primary productivity, its links to water quality, and consequences for aquatic carbon biogeochemistry

Streams and rivers have a limited spatial extent, but are increasingly recognized as key components of regional biogeochemical cycles. The collective metabolic processing of organisms, known as ecosystem metabolism, is centrally important to nutrient cycling and carbon fluxes in these environments, but is poorly integrated into emerging biogeochemical concepts. This line of inquiry lags behind oth
Learn More
Filter Total Items: 13

Model predictions for heterogeneous stream-reservoir graph networks with data assimilation

This data release provides the predictions from stream temperature models described in Chen et al. 2021. Briefly, various deep learning and process-guided deep learning models were built to test improved performance of stream temperature predictions below reservoirs in the Delaware River Basin. The spatial extent of predictions was restricted to streams above the Delaware River at Lordville, NY, a

Predictions of lake water temperatures for eight reservoirs in Missouri US, 1980-2021

Lake temperature is an important environmental metric for understanding habitat suitability for many freshwater species and is especially useful when temperatures are predicted throughout the water column (known as temperature profiles). This dataset provides estimates of water temperature at half meter depths for eight reservoirs in Missouri, USA using version 3 of the General Lake Model (Hipsey

Data release: Predicting Water Temperature Dynamics of Unmonitored Lakes with Meta Transfer Learning (Provisional Data Release)

These data are preliminary or provisional and are subject to revision. They are being provided to meet the need for timely best science. The data have not received final approval by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and are provided on the condition that neither the USGS nor the U.S. Government shall be held liable for any damages resulting from the authorized or unauthorized use of the data.

Daily surface temperature predictions for 185,549 U.S. lakes with associated observations and meteorological conditions (1980-2020)

Daily lake surface temperatures estimates for 185,549 lakes across the contiguous United States from 1980 to 2020 generated using an entity-aware long short-term memory deep learning model. In-situ measurements used for model training and evaluation are from 12,227 lakes and are included as well as daily meteorological conditions and lake properties. Median per-lake estimated error found through c

Multi-task Deep Learning for Water Temperature and Streamflow Prediction (ver. 1.1, June 2022)

This item contains data and code used in experiments that produced the results for Sadler et. al (2022) (see below for full reference). We ran five experiments for the analysis, Experiment A, Experiment B, Experiment C, Experiment D, and Experiment AuxIn. Experiment A tested multi-task learning for predicting streamflow with 25 years of training data and using a different model for each of 101 sit

Lake Biogeochemical Model Output for One Retrospective and 12 Future Climate Runs in Northern Wisconsin & Michigan, USA

This dataset contains modeled daily lake area, volume, constituent mass, and biogeochemical rates for 3,692 lakes in the Northern Highlands Lake District (NHLD) for one retrospective model run (1986-2010) and 12 model runs under future climate scenarios. This dataset was created using published tools developed to simulate detailed hydrological and biogeochemical fluxes for thousands of lakes and r

Table and accompanying photographs for biogeomorphic classification of shorebird nesting sites on the U.S. Atlantic coast from March to September, 2016

Atlantic coast piping plover (Charadrius melodus) nest sites are typically found on low-lying beach and dune systems, which respond rapidly to coastal processes like sediment overwash, inlet formation, and island migration that are sensitive to climate-related changes in storminess and the rate of sea-level rise. Data were obtained to understand piping plover habitat distribution and use along the
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

Predicting water temperature in the Delaware River Basin

Daily temperature predictions in the Delaware River Basin (DRB) can inform decision makers who can use cold-water reservoir releases to maintain thermal habitat for sensitive fish and mussel species. This data release supports a variety of flow and water temperature modeling efforts and provides the inputs and outputs of both machine learning and process-based modeling methods across 456 river rea
By
Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, Upper Midwest Water Science Center

Data release: Walleye Thermal Optical Habitat Area (TOHA) of selected Minnesota lakes

Climate change and land use change have been shown to influence lake temperatures and water clarity in different ways. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we focused on improving prediction accuracy for daily water temperature profiles and optical habitat in 881 lakes in Minnesota during 1980-2018. The data are

Data release: Process-based predictions of lake water temperature in the Midwest US

Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures in different ways. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we focused on improving prediction accuracy for daily water temperature profiles in 7,150 lakes in Minnesota and Wisconsin during 1980-2019. The data are organized into these items: Spatial data

Data release: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes

Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures globally. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers

Metabolism estimates for 356 U.S. rivers (2007-2017)

This data release provides modeled estimates of gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and gas exchange coefficients for 356 streams and rivers across the United States. The release also includes the model input data and alternative input data, model fit and diagnostic information, spatial data for the modeled sites (catchment boundaries and site point locations), and potential predict
By
Water Resources
Filter Total Items: 54

Connecting habitat to species abundance: The role of light and temperature on the abundance of walleye in lakes

Walleye (Sander vitreus) are an ecologically important species managed for recreational, tribal, and commercial harvest. Walleye prefer cool water and low light conditions, and therefore changing water temperature and clarity potentially impacts walleye habitat and populations across the landscape. Using survey data collected from 1993 to 2018 from 312 lakes in Minnesota, we evaluated the relation

Machine learning for understanding inland water quantity, quality, and ecology

This chapter provides an overview of machine learning models and their applications to the science of inland waters. Such models serve a wide range of purposes for science and management: predicting water quality, quantity, or ecological dynamics across space, time, or hypothetical scenarios; vetting and distilling raw data for further modeling or analysis; generating and exploring hypotheses; est
By
Water Resources, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, Upper Midwest Water Science Center

Physics-guided architecture (PGA) of LSTM models for uncertainty quantification in lake temperature modeling

This chapter focuses on meeting the need to produce neural network outputs that are physically consistent and also express uncertainties, a rare combination to date. It explains the effectiveness of physics-guided architecture - long-short-term-memory (PGA-LSTM) in achieving better generalizability and physical consistency over data collected from Lake Mendota in Wisconsin and Falling Creek Reserv

Heat budget of lakes

This article gives an overview of the heat fluxes between lakes and their environment. The heat budget of most lakes is dominated by heat fluxes at the lake surface, especially shortwave radiation, incoming and outgoing longwave radiation, and the latent heat flux. The seasonality of these fluxes is the most important driver for seasonal mixing processes in lakes. Changes in heat fluxes and the re

Physics-guided neural networks (PGNN): An application in lake temperature modeling

This chapter introduces a framework for combining scientific knowledge of physics-based models with neural networks to advance scientific discovery. It explains termed physics-guided neural networks (PGNN), leverages the output of physics-based model simulations along with observational features in a hybrid modeling setup to generate predictions using a neural network architecture. Data science ha

Physics-guided recurrent neural networks for predicting lake water temperature

This chapter presents a physics-guided recurrent neural network model (PGRNN) for predicting water temperature in lake systems. Standard machine learning (ML) methods, especially deep learning models, often require a large amount of labeled training samples, which are often not available in scientific problems due to the substantial human labor and material costs associated with data collection. M

Daily surface temperatures for 185,549 lakes in the conterminous United States estimated using deep learning (1980–2020)

The dataset described here includes estimates of historical (1980–2020) daily surface water temperature, lake metadata, and daily weather conditions for lakes bigger than 4 ha in the conterminous United States (n = 185,549), and also in situ temperature observations for a subset of lakes (n = 12,227). Estimates were generated using a long short-term memory deep learning model and compared to exist

Invertibility aware integration of static and time-series data: An application to lake temperature modeling

Accurate predictions of water temperature are the foundation for many decisions and regulations, with direct impacts on water quality, fishery yields, and power production. Building accurate broad-scale models for lake temperature prediction remains challenging in practice due to the variability in the data distribution across different lake systems monitored by static and time-series data. In thi

Multi-task deep learning of daily streamflow and water temperature

Deep learning (DL) models can accurately predict many hydrologic variables including streamflow and water temperature; however, these models have typically predicted hydrologic variables independently. This study explored the benefits of modeling two interdependent variables, daily average streamflow and daily average stream water temperature, together using multi-task DL. A multi-task scaling fac

Final report: Understanding historical and predicting future lake temperatures in North and South Dakota

Lakes, reservoirs, and ponds are central and integral features of the landscape of the North Central US. These water bodies provide aesthetic, cultural, and ecosystem services to surrounding wildlife and human communities. Lakes are warming, resulting in the loss of many native fish. In order to manage economically valuable fisheries and other ecosystem services provided by lakes, it is important

Physics-guided machine learning from simulation data: An application in modeling lake and river systems

This paper proposes a new physics-guided machine learning approach that incorporates the scientific knowledge in physics-based models into machine learning models. Physics-based models are widely used to study dynamical systems in a variety of scientific and engineering problems. Although they are built based on general physical laws that govern the relations from input to output variables, these

LakeEnsemblR: An R package that facilitates ensemble modelling of lakes

Model ensembles have several benefits compared to single-model applications but are not frequently used within the lake modelling community. Setting up and running multiple lake models can be challenging and time consuming, despite the many similarities between the existing models (forcing data, hypsograph, etc.). Here we present an R package, LakeEnsemblR, that facilitates running ensembles of fi

Non-USGS Publications**

Watras CJ, M Morrow, K Morrison, S Scannell, S Yaziciaglu, JS Read, YH Hu, PC Hanson, TK Kratz. 2013. Evaluation of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) for remote wetland monitoring: Design and initial results. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. doi:10.1007/s10661-013-3424-8
Read JS, KC Rose. 2013. Physical responses of small temperate lakes to variation in dissolved organic carbon concentrations. Limnology and Oceanography. 58: 921-931. doi:10.4319/lo.2013.58.3.0921[Link]
Youngblut ND, A Shade, JS Read, KD McMahon, RJ Whitaker. 2013. Lineage-specific responses to environmental change in microbial communities. Applied and Environmental Microbiology. 79: 39-47. doi:10.1128/AEM.02226-12
Read JS. Physical processes in small temperate lakes. 2012. PhD Dissertation, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Samal NR, DC Pierson, E Schneiderman, Y Huang, JS Read, A Anandhi, EM Owens. 2012. Impact of climate change on Cannonsville reservoir thermal structure in the New York City Water Supply. Water Quality Research Journal of Canada. 47: 389-405
Staehr PA, JPA Christensen, RD Batt, JS Read. 2012. Ecosystem metabolism in a stratified lake. Limnology and Oceanography. 57: 1317-133
Shade A, JS Read, ND Youngblut, N Fierer, R Knight, TK Kratz, NR Lottig, EE Roden, EH Stanley, J Stombaugh, RJ Whitaker, CH Wu, KD McMahon. 2012. Microbial communities are resilient after a whole-ecosystem disturbance. The ISME Journal. 6: 2153-2167. doi:10.1038/ismej.2012.66
Read JS, DP Hamilton, AR Desai, KC Rose, S MacIntyre, JD Lenters, R Smyth, PC Hanson, JJ Cole, PA Staehr, JA Rusak, DC Pierson, JD Brookes, A Laas, CH Wu. 2012. Lake-size dependency of wind shear and convection as controls on gas exchange. Geophysical Research Letters. 39: L09405. doi:10.1029/2012GL051886
Gaeta JW, JS Read, JF Kitchell, SR Carpenter. 2012. Eradication via destratification: Whole-lake mixing to selectively remove rainbow smelt, a cold-water invasive species. Ecological Applications. 22: 817-827
Kara EL, PC Hanson, DP Hamilton, M Hipsey, KD McMahon, JS Read, LA Winslow, J Dedrick, KC Rose, CC Carey, S Bertilsson, D Motta-Marques, L Beversdorf, T Miller, CH Wu, YF Hsieh, E Gaiser, TK Kratz. 2012. Time-scale dependence in numerical simulations: Assessment of physical, chemical, and biological predictions in a stratified lake from scales of hours to months. Environmental Modelling and Software. 35: 104-121
Read JS, DP Hamilton, ID Jones, K Muraoka, LA Winslow, R Kroiss, CH Wu, E Gaiser. 2011. Derivation of lake mixing and stratification indices from high-resolution lake buoy data. Environmental Modelling and Software. 26: 1325-1336
Shade A, JS Read, D Welkie, TK Kratz, CH Wu, KD McMahon. 2011. Resistance, resilience, and recovery: Aquatic bacterial dynamics after water column disturbance. Environmental Microbiology. 13: 2752-2767
Read JS, A Shade, CH Wu, A Gorzalski, KD McMahon. 2011. "Gradual Entrainment Lake Inverter" (GELI): A novel device for experimental lake mixing. Limnology and Oceanography: Methods. 9:14-25

**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.

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Warmer Waters From Climate Change Could Impact Sport Fish Communities in Midwestern Lakes

A recent study looks at the impact of climate change on certain fish in Wisconsin lakes. 

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Science and Products

  • Science
    link
    Curious smallmouth bass following behind scuba divers in Sparkling Lake, Vilas County, Wis. Photographer: Gretchen Hansen, Wisco

    Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change on Fish Growth and Production to Enable Sustainable Management of Diverse Inland Fisheries

    Fisheries managers in Midwestern lakes and reservoirs are tasked with balancing multiple management objectives to help maintain healthy fish populations across a landscape of diverse lakes. As part of this, managers monitor fish growth and survival. Growth rates in particular are indicators of population health, and directly influence the effectiveness of regulations designed to protect spawning f
    By
    Climate Adaptation Science Centers
    link

    Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change on Fish Growth and Production to Enable Sustainable Management of Diverse Inland Fisheries

    Fisheries managers in Midwestern lakes and reservoirs are tasked with balancing multiple management objectives to help maintain healthy fish populations across a landscape of diverse lakes. As part of this, managers monitor fish growth and survival. Growth rates in particular are indicators of population health, and directly influence the effectiveness of regulations designed to protect spawning f
    Learn More
    link
    Overlooking the Manistee River

    Scoping the Feasibility of Incorporating Climate Change into Risk Assessments of Aquatic Invasive Species in the Upper Midwest

    Aquatic invasive species threaten our lakes, streams, and wetlands. These species not only change the biology within the waterbody, but they can change the way we use those waterbodies and the resources they produce. Those changes may have large economic impacts, such as direct management costs and indirect costs to fisheries, tourism and commerce. These species can be small like zebra mussels or
    By
    Climate Adaptation Science Centers
    link

    Scoping the Feasibility of Incorporating Climate Change into Risk Assessments of Aquatic Invasive Species in the Upper Midwest

    Aquatic invasive species threaten our lakes, streams, and wetlands. These species not only change the biology within the waterbody, but they can change the way we use those waterbodies and the resources they produce. Those changes may have large economic impacts, such as direct management costs and indirect costs to fisheries, tourism and commerce. These species can be small like zebra mussels or
    Learn More
    link
    Vizlab Logo

    Water Data Visualizations

    Water data visualizations are provocative visuals and captivating stories that inform, inspire, and empower people to address our Nation's most pressing water issues. USGS data science and visualization experts use visualizations to communicate water data in compelling and often interactive ways when static images or written narrative can’t effectively communicate the interconnectivity and...
    By
    Water Resources
    link

    Water Data Visualizations

    Water data visualizations are provocative visuals and captivating stories that inform, inspire, and empower people to address our Nation's most pressing water issues. USGS data science and visualization experts use visualizations to communicate water data in compelling and often interactive ways when static images or written narrative can’t effectively communicate the interconnectivity and...
    Learn More
    link
    Lake Michigan near Grand Haven, Michigan

    Webinar: Variable Warming in Lakes of the Upper Midwest and Implications for Sport Fish

    Check out this webinar to learn more about how warming temperatures are affecting lakes in the Midwest and the fish they support.
    By
    Ecosystems, Climate Adaptation Science Centers
    link

    Webinar: Variable Warming in Lakes of the Upper Midwest and Implications for Sport Fish

    Check out this webinar to learn more about how warming temperatures are affecting lakes in the Midwest and the fish they support.
    Learn More
    link
    Lake Huran

    Fish Habitat Restoration to Promote Adaptation: Resilience of Sport Fish in Lakes of the Upper Midwest

    Many Midwestern lakes are experiencing warming water temperatures as a result of climate change. In general, this change is causing coldwater fish species such as cisco and coolwater species such as walleye to decline. Meanwhile, warmer water species such as largemouth and smallmouth bass are increasing as temperatures warm. However, some fish populations are more vulnerable to these changes than
    By
    Climate Adaptation Science Centers
    link

    Fish Habitat Restoration to Promote Adaptation: Resilience of Sport Fish in Lakes of the Upper Midwest

    Many Midwestern lakes are experiencing warming water temperatures as a result of climate change. In general, this change is causing coldwater fish species such as cisco and coolwater species such as walleye to decline. Meanwhile, warmer water species such as largemouth and smallmouth bass are increasing as temperatures warm. However, some fish populations are more vulnerable to these changes than
    Learn More
    link
    Image: Prairie Pothole Region

    Understanding Historical and Predicting Future Lake Temperatures in North and South Dakota

    Lakes, reservoirs, and ponds are central and integral features of the North Central U.S. These water bodies provide aesthetic, cultural, and ecosystem services to surrounding wildlife and human communities. External impacts – such as climate change – can have significant impacts to these important parts of the region’s landscape. Understanding the responses of lakes to these drivers is critical fo...
    By
    Climate Adaptation Science Centers
    link

    Understanding Historical and Predicting Future Lake Temperatures in North and South Dakota

    Lakes, reservoirs, and ponds are central and integral features of the North Central U.S. These water bodies provide aesthetic, cultural, and ecosystem services to surrounding wildlife and human communities. External impacts – such as climate change – can have significant impacts to these important parts of the region’s landscape. Understanding the responses of lakes to these drivers is critical fo...
    Learn More
    link
    Lake Michigan with Storm Clouds

    Developing Adaptation Strategies for Recreational and Tribal Fisheries in the Upper Midwest

    Fisheries in the glacial lakes region of the upper Midwest are culturally, economically, and recreationally beneficial. Walleye, for instance, represent an important subsistence food source for some Wisconsin tribal nations and are also popular among recreational anglers. However, predicted ecological changes to these aquatic communities, such as an increase in invasive fish species, a decrease in
    By
    Climate Adaptation Science Centers
    link

    Developing Adaptation Strategies for Recreational and Tribal Fisheries in the Upper Midwest

    Fisheries in the glacial lakes region of the upper Midwest are culturally, economically, and recreationally beneficial. Walleye, for instance, represent an important subsistence food source for some Wisconsin tribal nations and are also popular among recreational anglers. However, predicted ecological changes to these aquatic communities, such as an increase in invasive fish species, a decrease in
    Learn More
    link
    Clear blue lake with green trees in the background and blue sky with clouds reflected in the water

    “Hyperscale” Modeling to Understand and Predict Temperature Changes in Midwest Lakes

    Many inland waters across the United States are experiencing warming water temperatures. The impacts of this warming on aquatic ecosystems are significant in many areas, causing problems for fisheries management, as many economically and ecologically important fish species are experiencing range shifts and population declines. Fisheries and natural resource managers need timely and usable data and
    By
    Climate Adaptation Science Centers
    link

    “Hyperscale” Modeling to Understand and Predict Temperature Changes in Midwest Lakes

    Many inland waters across the United States are experiencing warming water temperatures. The impacts of this warming on aquatic ecosystems are significant in many areas, causing problems for fisheries management, as many economically and ecologically important fish species are experiencing range shifts and population declines. Fisheries and natural resource managers need timely and usable data and
    Learn More
    link
    USGS science for a changing world logo

    sbtools: An R package for ScienceBase

    Science is an increasingly collaborative endeavor. In an era of Web-enabled research, new tools reduce barriers to collaboration across traditional geographic and disciplinary divides and improve the quality and efficiency of science. Collaborative online code management has moved project collaboration from a manual process of email and thumb drives into a traceable, streamlined system where code
    By
    Community for Data Integration (CDI)
    link

    sbtools: An R package for ScienceBase

    Science is an increasingly collaborative endeavor. In an era of Web-enabled research, new tools reduce barriers to collaboration across traditional geographic and disciplinary divides and improve the quality and efficiency of science. Collaborative online code management has moved project collaboration from a manual process of email and thumb drives into a traceable, streamlined system where code
    Learn More
    link
    View from beach through beachgrass of Frankfort Lighthouse, Michigan in Lake Michigan

    An Assessment of Midwestern Lake and Stream Temperatures under Climate Change

    Water temperatures are warming in lakes and streams, resulting in the loss of many native fish. Given clear passage, coldwater stream fishes can take refuge upstream when larger streams become too warm. Likewise, many Midwestern lakes “thermally stratify” resulting in warmer waters on top of deeper, cooler waters. Many of these lakes are connected to threatened streams. To date, assessments of the...
    By
    Climate Adaptation Science Centers
    link

    An Assessment of Midwestern Lake and Stream Temperatures under Climate Change

    Water temperatures are warming in lakes and streams, resulting in the loss of many native fish. Given clear passage, coldwater stream fishes can take refuge upstream when larger streams become too warm. Likewise, many Midwestern lakes “thermally stratify” resulting in warmer waters on top of deeper, cooler waters. Many of these lakes are connected to threatened streams. To date, assessments of the...
    Learn More
    link
    USGS science for a changing world logo

    Continental-scale overview of stream primary productivity, its links to water quality, and consequences for aquatic carbon biogeochemistry

    Streams and rivers have a limited spatial extent, but are increasingly recognized as key components of regional biogeochemical cycles. The collective metabolic processing of organisms, known as ecosystem metabolism, is centrally important to nutrient cycling and carbon fluxes in these environments, but is poorly integrated into emerging biogeochemical concepts. This line of inquiry lags behind oth
    By
    John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
    link

    Continental-scale overview of stream primary productivity, its links to water quality, and consequences for aquatic carbon biogeochemistry

    Streams and rivers have a limited spatial extent, but are increasingly recognized as key components of regional biogeochemical cycles. The collective metabolic processing of organisms, known as ecosystem metabolism, is centrally important to nutrient cycling and carbon fluxes in these environments, but is poorly integrated into emerging biogeochemical concepts. This line of inquiry lags behind oth
    Learn More
  • Data
    Filter Total Items: 13

    Model predictions for heterogeneous stream-reservoir graph networks with data assimilation

    This data release provides the predictions from stream temperature models described in Chen et al. 2021. Briefly, various deep learning and process-guided deep learning models were built to test improved performance of stream temperature predictions below reservoirs in the Delaware River Basin. The spatial extent of predictions was restricted to streams above the Delaware River at Lordville, NY, a

    Predictions of lake water temperatures for eight reservoirs in Missouri US, 1980-2021

    Lake temperature is an important environmental metric for understanding habitat suitability for many freshwater species and is especially useful when temperatures are predicted throughout the water column (known as temperature profiles). This dataset provides estimates of water temperature at half meter depths for eight reservoirs in Missouri, USA using version 3 of the General Lake Model (Hipsey

    Data release: Predicting Water Temperature Dynamics of Unmonitored Lakes with Meta Transfer Learning (Provisional Data Release)

    These data are preliminary or provisional and are subject to revision. They are being provided to meet the need for timely best science. The data have not received final approval by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and are provided on the condition that neither the USGS nor the U.S. Government shall be held liable for any damages resulting from the authorized or unauthorized use of the data.

    Daily surface temperature predictions for 185,549 U.S. lakes with associated observations and meteorological conditions (1980-2020)

    Daily lake surface temperatures estimates for 185,549 lakes across the contiguous United States from 1980 to 2020 generated using an entity-aware long short-term memory deep learning model. In-situ measurements used for model training and evaluation are from 12,227 lakes and are included as well as daily meteorological conditions and lake properties. Median per-lake estimated error found through c

    Multi-task Deep Learning for Water Temperature and Streamflow Prediction (ver. 1.1, June 2022)

    This item contains data and code used in experiments that produced the results for Sadler et. al (2022) (see below for full reference). We ran five experiments for the analysis, Experiment A, Experiment B, Experiment C, Experiment D, and Experiment AuxIn. Experiment A tested multi-task learning for predicting streamflow with 25 years of training data and using a different model for each of 101 sit

    Lake Biogeochemical Model Output for One Retrospective and 12 Future Climate Runs in Northern Wisconsin & Michigan, USA

    This dataset contains modeled daily lake area, volume, constituent mass, and biogeochemical rates for 3,692 lakes in the Northern Highlands Lake District (NHLD) for one retrospective model run (1986-2010) and 12 model runs under future climate scenarios. This dataset was created using published tools developed to simulate detailed hydrological and biogeochemical fluxes for thousands of lakes and r

    Table and accompanying photographs for biogeomorphic classification of shorebird nesting sites on the U.S. Atlantic coast from March to September, 2016

    Atlantic coast piping plover (Charadrius melodus) nest sites are typically found on low-lying beach and dune systems, which respond rapidly to coastal processes like sediment overwash, inlet formation, and island migration that are sensitive to climate-related changes in storminess and the rate of sea-level rise. Data were obtained to understand piping plover habitat distribution and use along the
    By
    Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

    Predicting water temperature in the Delaware River Basin

    Daily temperature predictions in the Delaware River Basin (DRB) can inform decision makers who can use cold-water reservoir releases to maintain thermal habitat for sensitive fish and mussel species. This data release supports a variety of flow and water temperature modeling efforts and provides the inputs and outputs of both machine learning and process-based modeling methods across 456 river rea
    By
    Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, Upper Midwest Water Science Center

    Data release: Walleye Thermal Optical Habitat Area (TOHA) of selected Minnesota lakes

    Climate change and land use change have been shown to influence lake temperatures and water clarity in different ways. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we focused on improving prediction accuracy for daily water temperature profiles and optical habitat in 881 lakes in Minnesota during 1980-2018. The data are

    Data release: Process-based predictions of lake water temperature in the Midwest US

    Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures in different ways. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we focused on improving prediction accuracy for daily water temperature profiles in 7,150 lakes in Minnesota and Wisconsin during 1980-2019. The data are organized into these items: Spatial data

    Data release: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes

    Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures globally. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on
    By
    Climate Adaptation Science Centers

    Metabolism estimates for 356 U.S. rivers (2007-2017)

    This data release provides modeled estimates of gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and gas exchange coefficients for 356 streams and rivers across the United States. The release also includes the model input data and alternative input data, model fit and diagnostic information, spatial data for the modeled sites (catchment boundaries and site point locations), and potential predict
    By
    Water Resources
  • Publications
    Filter Total Items: 54

    Connecting habitat to species abundance: The role of light and temperature on the abundance of walleye in lakes

    Walleye (Sander vitreus) are an ecologically important species managed for recreational, tribal, and commercial harvest. Walleye prefer cool water and low light conditions, and therefore changing water temperature and clarity potentially impacts walleye habitat and populations across the landscape. Using survey data collected from 1993 to 2018 from 312 lakes in Minnesota, we evaluated the relation

    Machine learning for understanding inland water quantity, quality, and ecology

    This chapter provides an overview of machine learning models and their applications to the science of inland waters. Such models serve a wide range of purposes for science and management: predicting water quality, quantity, or ecological dynamics across space, time, or hypothetical scenarios; vetting and distilling raw data for further modeling or analysis; generating and exploring hypotheses; est
    By
    Water Resources, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, Upper Midwest Water Science Center

    Physics-guided architecture (PGA) of LSTM models for uncertainty quantification in lake temperature modeling

    This chapter focuses on meeting the need to produce neural network outputs that are physically consistent and also express uncertainties, a rare combination to date. It explains the effectiveness of physics-guided architecture - long-short-term-memory (PGA-LSTM) in achieving better generalizability and physical consistency over data collected from Lake Mendota in Wisconsin and Falling Creek Reserv

    Heat budget of lakes

    This article gives an overview of the heat fluxes between lakes and their environment. The heat budget of most lakes is dominated by heat fluxes at the lake surface, especially shortwave radiation, incoming and outgoing longwave radiation, and the latent heat flux. The seasonality of these fluxes is the most important driver for seasonal mixing processes in lakes. Changes in heat fluxes and the re

    Physics-guided neural networks (PGNN): An application in lake temperature modeling

    This chapter introduces a framework for combining scientific knowledge of physics-based models with neural networks to advance scientific discovery. It explains termed physics-guided neural networks (PGNN), leverages the output of physics-based model simulations along with observational features in a hybrid modeling setup to generate predictions using a neural network architecture. Data science ha

    Physics-guided recurrent neural networks for predicting lake water temperature

    This chapter presents a physics-guided recurrent neural network model (PGRNN) for predicting water temperature in lake systems. Standard machine learning (ML) methods, especially deep learning models, often require a large amount of labeled training samples, which are often not available in scientific problems due to the substantial human labor and material costs associated with data collection. M

    Daily surface temperatures for 185,549 lakes in the conterminous United States estimated using deep learning (1980–2020)

    The dataset described here includes estimates of historical (1980–2020) daily surface water temperature, lake metadata, and daily weather conditions for lakes bigger than 4 ha in the conterminous United States (n = 185,549), and also in situ temperature observations for a subset of lakes (n = 12,227). Estimates were generated using a long short-term memory deep learning model and compared to exist

    Invertibility aware integration of static and time-series data: An application to lake temperature modeling

    Accurate predictions of water temperature are the foundation for many decisions and regulations, with direct impacts on water quality, fishery yields, and power production. Building accurate broad-scale models for lake temperature prediction remains challenging in practice due to the variability in the data distribution across different lake systems monitored by static and time-series data. In thi

    Multi-task deep learning of daily streamflow and water temperature

    Deep learning (DL) models can accurately predict many hydrologic variables including streamflow and water temperature; however, these models have typically predicted hydrologic variables independently. This study explored the benefits of modeling two interdependent variables, daily average streamflow and daily average stream water temperature, together using multi-task DL. A multi-task scaling fac

    Final report: Understanding historical and predicting future lake temperatures in North and South Dakota

    Lakes, reservoirs, and ponds are central and integral features of the landscape of the North Central US. These water bodies provide aesthetic, cultural, and ecosystem services to surrounding wildlife and human communities. Lakes are warming, resulting in the loss of many native fish. In order to manage economically valuable fisheries and other ecosystem services provided by lakes, it is important

    Physics-guided machine learning from simulation data: An application in modeling lake and river systems

    This paper proposes a new physics-guided machine learning approach that incorporates the scientific knowledge in physics-based models into machine learning models. Physics-based models are widely used to study dynamical systems in a variety of scientific and engineering problems. Although they are built based on general physical laws that govern the relations from input to output variables, these

    LakeEnsemblR: An R package that facilitates ensemble modelling of lakes

    Model ensembles have several benefits compared to single-model applications but are not frequently used within the lake modelling community. Setting up and running multiple lake models can be challenging and time consuming, despite the many similarities between the existing models (forcing data, hypsograph, etc.). Here we present an R package, LakeEnsemblR, that facilitates running ensembles of fi

    Non-USGS Publications**

    Watras CJ, M Morrow, K Morrison, S Scannell, S Yaziciaglu, JS Read, YH Hu, PC Hanson, TK Kratz. 2013. Evaluation of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) for remote wetland monitoring: Design and initial results. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. doi:10.1007/s10661-013-3424-8
    Read JS, KC Rose. 2013. Physical responses of small temperate lakes to variation in dissolved organic carbon concentrations. Limnology and Oceanography. 58: 921-931. doi:10.4319/lo.2013.58.3.0921[Link]
    Youngblut ND, A Shade, JS Read, KD McMahon, RJ Whitaker. 2013. Lineage-specific responses to environmental change in microbial communities. Applied and Environmental Microbiology. 79: 39-47. doi:10.1128/AEM.02226-12
    Read JS. Physical processes in small temperate lakes. 2012. PhD Dissertation, University of Wisconsin-Madison
    Samal NR, DC Pierson, E Schneiderman, Y Huang, JS Read, A Anandhi, EM Owens. 2012. Impact of climate change on Cannonsville reservoir thermal structure in the New York City Water Supply. Water Quality Research Journal of Canada. 47: 389-405
    Staehr PA, JPA Christensen, RD Batt, JS Read. 2012. Ecosystem metabolism in a stratified lake. Limnology and Oceanography. 57: 1317-133
    Shade A, JS Read, ND Youngblut, N Fierer, R Knight, TK Kratz, NR Lottig, EE Roden, EH Stanley, J Stombaugh, RJ Whitaker, CH Wu, KD McMahon. 2012. Microbial communities are resilient after a whole-ecosystem disturbance. The ISME Journal. 6: 2153-2167. doi:10.1038/ismej.2012.66
    Read JS, DP Hamilton, AR Desai, KC Rose, S MacIntyre, JD Lenters, R Smyth, PC Hanson, JJ Cole, PA Staehr, JA Rusak, DC Pierson, JD Brookes, A Laas, CH Wu. 2012. Lake-size dependency of wind shear and convection as controls on gas exchange. Geophysical Research Letters. 39: L09405. doi:10.1029/2012GL051886
    Gaeta JW, JS Read, JF Kitchell, SR Carpenter. 2012. Eradication via destratification: Whole-lake mixing to selectively remove rainbow smelt, a cold-water invasive species. Ecological Applications. 22: 817-827
    Kara EL, PC Hanson, DP Hamilton, M Hipsey, KD McMahon, JS Read, LA Winslow, J Dedrick, KC Rose, CC Carey, S Bertilsson, D Motta-Marques, L Beversdorf, T Miller, CH Wu, YF Hsieh, E Gaiser, TK Kratz. 2012. Time-scale dependence in numerical simulations: Assessment of physical, chemical, and biological predictions in a stratified lake from scales of hours to months. Environmental Modelling and Software. 35: 104-121
    Read JS, DP Hamilton, ID Jones, K Muraoka, LA Winslow, R Kroiss, CH Wu, E Gaiser. 2011. Derivation of lake mixing and stratification indices from high-resolution lake buoy data. Environmental Modelling and Software. 26: 1325-1336
    Shade A, JS Read, D Welkie, TK Kratz, CH Wu, KD McMahon. 2011. Resistance, resilience, and recovery: Aquatic bacterial dynamics after water column disturbance. Environmental Microbiology. 13: 2752-2767
    Read JS, A Shade, CH Wu, A Gorzalski, KD McMahon. 2011. "Gradual Entrainment Lake Inverter" (GELI): A novel device for experimental lake mixing. Limnology and Oceanography: Methods. 9:14-25

    **Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.

  • News
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    Warmer Waters From Climate Change Could Impact Sport Fish Communities in Midwestern Lakes

    A recent study looks at the impact of climate change on certain fish in Wisconsin lakes. 

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