Ken Bagstad is a Research Economist working with the USGS’ Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center in Denver. He uses GIS and modeling to quantify, map, and value ecosystem service flows across the United States and internationally.
Ken co-leads work to develop natural capital accounts in the United States at national and regional scales and use this information to support resource management for federal government agencies. Ken has also co-led the development of content for the Artificial Intelligence for Environment & Sustainability (ARIES) project, which has developed software tools to deliver more timely and accurate information for environmental decision making. Through his work on ARIES, Ken has a long-standing interest in the use of artificial intelligence, particularly semantics and machine reasoning, to make scientific data and models interoperable and reusable by both people and computers.
From 2015-2016 Ken was seconded to the World Bank's Wealth Accounting and Valuation of Ecosystem Services (WAVES) Program as a Senior Environmental Specialist. He coordinated the development of ecosystem accounts and their application to national economic accounts in Colombia, Costa Rica, and Rwanda, and assisted with their development elsewhere. For the last several years he has co-taught an ecosystem services modeling course in Spain, and in 2015 he worked in Japan as a Japan Society for the Promotion of Science research fellow.
Professional Experience
Research Economist, USGS GECSC, 2013-present
Senior Environmental Specialist, Seconded to the Word Bank, 2015-2016
Mendenhall Postdoctoral Fellow, USGS, 2011-2013
Education and Certifications
Ph.D. (Natural Resources, certificate in ecological economics), University of Vermont
M.S. (Plant Biology, concentration in ecology), Arizona State University
B.A. (Botany and Environmental Studies), Ohio Wesleyan University
Science and Products
The future of ecosystem assessments is automation, collaboration, and artificial intelligence
Can we avert an Amazon tipping point? The economic and environmental costs
Opportunities for businesses to use and support development of SEEA-aligned natural capital accounts
Water-use data in the United States: Challenges and future directions
Spatial social value distributions for multiple user groups in a coastal national park
Urban landcover differentially drives day and nighttime air temperature across a semi-arid city
Assessing the accuracy and potential for improvement of the national land cover database’s tree canopy cover dataset in urban areas of the conterminous United States
The global environmental agenda urgently needs a semantic web of knowledge
Estimating the pelagic ocean’s benefits to humanity can enhance ocean governance
Lessons learned from development of natural capital accounts in the United States and European Union
Editorial special issue natural capital accounting: The content, the context, and the framework
Book review: "Replacing GDP by 2030: Towards a common language for the well-being and sustainability community" by Rutger Hoekstra
Non-USGS Publications**
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Reanalyzing and Predicting U.S. Water Use using Economic History and Forecast Data; an experiment in short-range national hydro-economic data synthesis
Accounting for natural capital: building the numbers to track and sustain the nation’s natural resources
Ecosystem Services Assessment and Valuation
Ecosystem Services Valuation Pilot Study
Accounting for U.S. ecosystem services at national and subnational scales
Animal Migration and Spatial Subsidies: Establishing a Framework for Conservation Markets
Urban landcover differentially drives day and nighttime air temperature across a semi-arid city
Spatial social value distributions for multiple user groups in a coastal national park
Data release for Piloting Urban Ecosystem Accounting for the United States
Data release for Accounting for Land in the United States: Integrating Physical Land Cover, Land Use, and Monetary Valuation
Data release for Integrating physical and economic data into experimental water accounts for the United States: lessons and opportunities
Data release for Linking land and sea through an ecological-economic model of coral reef recreation
Perceived Social Value of the Sonoita Creek Watershed using the Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) Tool, Arizona, U.S.A.
Data Release for Testing ecosystem accounting in the United States: A case study for the Southeast
Data Release for Toward ecosystem accounts for Rwanda: Tracking 25 years of change in ecosystem service potential and flows
A national dataset of rasterized building footprints for the U.S.
Data release for ecosystem service flows from a migratory species: spatial subsidies of the northern pintail
Science and Products
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 73
The future of ecosystem assessments is automation, collaboration, and artificial intelligence
Robust and routine ecosystem assessments will be fundamental to track progress towards achieving this decade’s global environmental and sustainability goals. Here we examine four needs that address common failure points of ecosystem assessments. These are (1) developing rapid, reproducible, and repeatable ecological data workflows, (2) harmonizing in situ and remotely sensed data, (3) integratingAuthorsCarmen Galaz-García, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Julien Brun, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Trevor Dhu, Nicholas J. Murray, Connor J. Nolan, Taylor H. Ricketts, Heidi M. Sosik, Daniel Sousa, Geoff Willard, Benjamin S HalpernCan we avert an Amazon tipping point? The economic and environmental costs
The Amazon biome is being pushed by unsustainable economic drivers towards an ecological tipping point where restoration to its previous state may no longer be possible. This degradation is the result of self-reinforcing interactions between deforestation, climate change and fire. We assess the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts and trade-offs of scenarios representing movemeAuthorsOnil Banerjee, Martin Cicowiez, Marcia N. Macedo, Ziga Malek, Peter H. Verburg, Sean Goodwin, Renato Vargas, Ludmila Rattis, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Paulo M. Brando, Michael T. Coe, Christopher Neill, Octavio Damiani Marti, Josue Avila MurilloOpportunities for businesses to use and support development of SEEA-aligned natural capital accounts
Global understanding of the interconnections between the environment and economy has increased, driving the development of frameworks and standards that support the measurement and valuation of natural capital and ecosystem services by both governments and businesses. This paper outlines how businesses can use natural capital accounts (NCA) aligned to the System of Environmental Economic AccountinAuthorsJane Carter Ingram, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Michael Vardon, Charles R. Rhodes, Stephen M. Posner, Clyde F. Casey, Pierre D. Glynn, Carl D. ShapiroWater-use data in the United States: Challenges and future directions
In the United States, greater attention has been given to developing water supplies and quantifying available waters than determining who uses water, how much they withdraw and consume, and how and where water use occurs. As water supplies are stressed due to an increasingly variable climate, changing land-use, and growing water needs, greater consideration of the demand side of the water balanceAuthorsLandon Marston, Abdel Abdallah, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Kerim Dickson, Pierre D. Glynn, Sara Larsen, Forrest Melton, Kyle Onda, Jaime A. Painter, James Prairie, Benjamin Ruddell, Richard Rushforth, Gabriel B. Senay, Kimberly ShafferSpatial social value distributions for multiple user groups in a coastal national park
Managing public lands to maximize societal benefits requires spatially explicit understanding of societal valuation, and public participation geographic information systems (PPGIS) are increasingly used in coastal settings to accomplish this task. Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES), a PPGIS tool that systematizes the mapping and modeling of social values and cultural ecosystem services,AuthorsZachary H. Ancona, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Lena Le, Darius J. Semmens, Benson C. Sherrouse, Grant Murray, Philip S. Cook, Eva DiDonatoUrban landcover differentially drives day and nighttime air temperature across a semi-arid city
Semi-arid urban environments are undergoing an increase in both average air temperatures and in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events. Within cities, different composition and densities of urban landcovers (ULC) influence local air temperatures, either mitigating or increasing heat. Currently, understanding how combinations of ULC influence air temperature at the block to neighborhoodAuthorsPeter Christian Ibsen, G. Darrel Jenerette, Tyler Dell, Kenneth J. Bagstad, James E. DiffendorferAssessing the accuracy and potential for improvement of the national land cover database’s tree canopy cover dataset in urban areas of the conterminous United States
The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) provides time-series data characterizing the land surface for the United States, including land cover and tree canopy cover (NLCD-TC). NLCD-TC was first published for 2001, followed by versions for 2011 (released in 2016) and 2011 and 2016 (released in 2019). As the only nationwide tree canopy layer, there is value in assessing NLCD-TC accuracy, given the neAuthorsMehdi Heris, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Austin Troy, Jarlath O’Neil-DunneThe global environmental agenda urgently needs a semantic web of knowledge
Progress in key social-ecological challenges of the global environmental agenda (e.g., climate change, biodiversity conservation, Sustainable Development Goals) is hampered by a lack of integration and synthesis of existing scientific evidence. Facing a fast-increasing volume of data, information remains compartmentalized to pre-defined scales and fields, rarely building its way up to collective kAuthorsStefano Balbi, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Ainhoa Magrach, Maria Jose Sanz, Naikoa Aguilar-Amuchastegui, Carlo Guipponi, Ferdinando VillaEstimating the pelagic ocean’s benefits to humanity can enhance ocean governance
The human footprint on the global ocean is ever-increasing, particularly with new ways to grow food in the ocean, new technologies in marine energy production as a way to resolve climate change, and transport and commerce expanding across the ocean. Yet, human activities in the ocean have long been managed using a sectoral approach (e.g., fisheries, biodiversity protection, energy production, shipAuthorsLida Teneva, Aaron L. Strong, Vera Agostini, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Evangelina G Drakou, Zachary H. Ancona, Kristina Gjerde, Andrew C Hume, Nicholas JicklingLessons learned from development of natural capital accounts in the United States and European Union
The United States and European Union (EU) face common challenges in managing natural capital and balancing conservation and resource use with consumption of other forms of capital. This paper synthesizes findings from 11 individual application papers from a special issue of Ecosystem Services on natural capital accounting (NCA) and their application to the public and private sectors in the EU andAuthorsKenneth J. Bagstad, Jane Carter Ingram, Carl D. Shapiro, Alessandra La Notte, Joachim Maes, Sara Vallecillo, Clyde F. Casey, Pierre D. Glynn, Mehdi Heris, Justin A. Johnson, Chris Lauer, John Matuszak, Kirsten L. L. Oleson, Stephen M. Posner, Charles R. Rhodes, Brian VoigtEditorial special issue natural capital accounting: The content, the context, and the framework
No abstract available.AuthorsAlessandra La Notte, Sara Vallecillo, Joachim Maes, Carl D. Shapiro, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Jane Carter Ingram, Pierre D. GlynnBook review: "Replacing GDP by 2030: Towards a common language for the well-being and sustainability community" by Rutger Hoekstra
No abstract available.AuthorsMairi-Jane Fox, Kenneth J. BagstadNon-USGS Publications**
Bagstad, K.J. and R. Shammin. 2012. Can the Genuine Progress Indicator better inform sustainable regional progress? - A case study for Northeast Ohio. Ecological Indicators 18:330-341.Johnson, G.W., K.J. Bagstad, R. Snapp, and F. Villa. 2012. Service Path Attribution Networks (SPANs): A network flow approach to ecosystem service assessment. International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information Systems 3(2):54-71.Johnson, G.W., R.R. Snapp, F. Villa, and K.J. Bagstad. 2012. Modelling ecosystem service flows under uncertainty with stochastic SPAN. Pp. 1021-1028 in: R. Seppelt, A.A. Voinov, S. Lange, and D. Bankamp, eds., Proceedings of the 2012 International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software. ISBN: 978-88-9035-742-8.Villa, F., K.J. Bagstad, G. Johnson, and B. Voigt. 2011. Scientific instruments for climate change adaptation: Estimating and optimizing the efficiency of ecosystem services provision. Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales 11(1):83-98.Batker, D., de la Torre, I., Costanza, R., Swedeen, P., Day, J., Boumans, R., and Bagstad, K.J. 2010. Gaining ground: Wetlands, hurricanes, and the economy: The value of restoring the Mississippi River Delta. Environmental Law Reporter 40 ELR 11106-11110.Daniels, A.E., Bagstad, K.J., Esposito, V., Moulaert, A., and Manuel Rodriguez, C. 2010. Understanding the impacts of Costa Rica’s PES: Are we asking the right questions?: Ecological Economics 69(11):2116-2126.Stromberg, J.C., K.J. Bagstad, and E. Makings. 2009. Floristic Diversity. In: Ecology and conservation of the San Pedro River. J.C. Stromberg and B. Tellman, eds. University of Arizona Press: Tucson.Bagstad, K.J. and M. Ceroni. 2008. The Genuine Progress Indicator: A new measure of economic development for the Northern Forest. Adirondack Journal of Environmental Studies 15(1):21-29.Bagstad, K.J. and M. Ceroni. 2007. Opportunities and challenges in applying the GPI/ISEW at local scales. International Journal of Environment, Workplace, and Employment 3(2):132-153.Bagstad, K.J., K. Stapleton, and J.R. D’Agostino. 2007. Taxes, subsidies, and insurance as drivers of United States coastal development. Ecological Economics 63:285-298.Bagstad, K.J. 2006. Valuing ecosystem services in the Chicago region. Chicago Wilderness Journal 4(2):18-26.Bagstad, K.J., S.J. Lite, and J.C. Stromberg. 2006. Vegetation and hydro-geomorphology of riparian patch types of a dryland river. Western North American Naturalist 66:23-44.Bagstad, K.J., J.C. Stromberg, and S.J. Lite. 2005. Response of herbaceous riparian plant functional groups to flooding of the San Pedro River, Arizona. Wetlands 25(1):210-223.Lite, S.J., K.J. Bagstad, and J.C. Stromberg. 2005. Riparian plant richness and abundance across gradients of water stress and flood disturbance, San Pedro River, Arizona, USA. Journal of Arid Environments 63(4):785-813.Stromberg, J.C., K.J. Bagstad, E. Makings, S.J. Lite, and J. Leenhouts. 2005. Effect of decline in stream flow duration on channel vegetation of a semi-arid region river (San Pedro River, Arizona). River Research & Application 21(8):925-938.Roberts, B.R., H.F. Decker, K.J. Bagstad, and K.A. Peterson. 2001. Bio-solid residues as soilless media for growing wildflower sod. HortTechnology 11(2):194-199.Bagstad, K.J. and D.M. Johnson. 1999. Taxonomy of Xylopia barbata (Annonaceae) and related species from the Amazon/Orinoco region. Contributions of the University of Michigan Herbarium 22:21-29.Bagstad, K.J., F. Villa, D. Batker, J. Harrison-Cox, B. Voigt, and G. Johnson. 2014. From theoretical to actual ecosystem services: Accounting for beneficiaries and spatial flows in ecosystem service assessments. Ecology and Society 19(2):64.Batker, D., I. de la Torre, R. Costanza, J.W. Day, P. Swedeen, R. Boumans, and K.J. Bagstad. 2014. The threats to the value of ecosystem goods and services of the Mississippi Delta. Pp. 155-173 in: Perspectives on the restoration of the Mississippi Delta: The once and future delta. J. Day, G.P. Kemp, A. Freeman, and D.P. Muth, eds. Springer: New York.**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
- Science
Reanalyzing and Predicting U.S. Water Use using Economic History and Forecast Data; an experiment in short-range national hydro-economic data synthesis
Water in the United States is used for myriad activities on a daily basis, such as for food (irrigation, aquaculture, livestock), energy (thermoelectric power or hydropower generation), and public water supply for domestic, commercial or industrial purposes. Yet, we lack an national accounting of how and where water is used on a temporal scale more frequent than every 5 years, and a spatial scaleAccounting for natural capital: building the numbers to track and sustain the nation’s natural resources
Accounting for ecosystem services - the benefits that nature provides to society and the economy - is gaining increasing traction worldwide as governments and the private sector use them to monitor integrated environmental and economic trends. When they are well understood and managed, ecosystems can provide these long-term benefits to people - such as clean air and water, flood control, crop...Ecosystem Services Assessment and Valuation
Ecosystem services are the benefits that nature provides to human well-being: clean air and water, protection from natural disasters, fisheries, crop pollination and control of pests and disease, and outdoor places for recreation, solitude, and renewal. Ecosystem services underlie the functioning of our entire economy. They are neither worthless nor priceless, and by integrating the physical...Ecosystem Services Valuation Pilot Study
This project will use newly-collected data on human use and values, paired with existing ecological data and open source software tools to map what, where, and how people value the Cape Lookout National Seashore, North Carolina (CALO) landscape for a variety of different social value types. In addition, we will model and map biophysical features, the provision and use of key ecosystem services...Accounting for U.S. ecosystem services at national and subnational scales
Ecosystem services - the benefits that nature provides to society and the economy - are gaining increasing traction worldwide as governments and the private sector use them to monitor integrated environmental and economic trends. When they are well understood and managed, ecosystems can provide these long-term benefits to people - such as clean air and water, flood control, crop pollination, and rAnimal Migration and Spatial Subsidies: Establishing a Framework for Conservation Markets
Migratory species may provide more ecosystem goods and services to humans in certain parts of their range than others. These areas may or may not coincide with the locations of habitat on which the species is most dependent for its continued population viability. This situation can present significant policy challenges, as locations that most support a given species may be in effect subsidizing th - Data
Urban landcover differentially drives day and nighttime air temperature across a semi-arid city
Semi-arid urban environments are undergoing an increase in air temperatures, both in average temperatures and in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events. Within cities, different varieties of urban landcovers (ULC) and their densities influence local air temperatures, either mitigating or increasing heat. Currently, understanding how various combinations of ULCs influence air temperaturSpatial social value distributions for multiple user groups in a coastal national park
Public participation geographic information systems (PPGIS) is increasingly used in coastal settings to inform natural resource management and spatial planning. Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES), a PPGIS tool that systematizes the mapping and modeling of social values and cultural ecosystem services, is promising for use in coastal settings but has seen relatively limited applicationsData release for Piloting Urban Ecosystem Accounting for the United States
In this study, we develop urban ecosystem accounts in the U.S., using the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Experimental Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA EEA) framework. Most ecosystem accounts focus on regional and national scales, which are appropriate for many ecosystem services. However, ecosystems provide substantial services in cities, improving quality of life and contributing to resiliData release for Accounting for Land in the United States: Integrating Physical Land Cover, Land Use, and Monetary Valuation
Land plays a critical role in both economic and environmental accounting. As an asset, it occupies a unique position at the intersection of the System of National Accounts (SNA), the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Central Framework (SEEA-CF), and (as a spatial unit) SEEA Experimental Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA-EEA), making land a natural starting point for developing natural capital aData release for Integrating physical and economic data into experimental water accounts for the United States: lessons and opportunities
Water provides society with economic benefits that increasingly involve tradeoffs, making accounting for water quality, quantity, and their corresponding economic productivity more relevant in our interconnected world. In the past, physical and economic data about water have been fragmented, but integration is becoming more widely adopted internationally through application of the System of EnviroData release for Linking land and sea through an ecological-economic model of coral reef recreation
Coastal zones are popular recreational areas that substantially contribute to social welfare. Managers can use information about specific environmental features that people appreciate, and how these might change under different management scenarios, to spatially target actions to areas of high current or potential value. We explored how snorkelers' experience would be affected by separate and combPerceived Social Value of the Sonoita Creek Watershed using the Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) Tool, Arizona, U.S.A.
Mapping the spatial dynamics of perceived social value across the landscape can help develop a restoration economy that can support ecosystem services in the region. Many different methods have been used to map perceived social value. We used the Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) GIS tool, version 3.0, which uses social survey responses and various environmental variables to map socialData Release for Testing ecosystem accounting in the United States: A case study for the Southeast
Ecosystems benefit people in many ways, but these contributions do not appear in traditional national or corporate accounts so are often left out of policy- and decision-making. Ecosystem accounts, as formalized by the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Experimental Ecosystem Accounts (SEEA EEA), track the extent and condition of ecosystem assets and the flows of ecosystem services they pData Release for Toward ecosystem accounts for Rwanda: Tracking 25 years of change in ecosystem service potential and flows
Ecosystem accounts link national-scale environmental and economic trends, offering an internationally standardized approach to tracking sustainability. We compile ecosystem accounts for Rwanda over a 25-year period, and demonstrate that despite strong economic growth, social development, and high-level commitment to environmental goals, ecosystem services fundamental to Rwanda's well-being have deA national dataset of rasterized building footprints for the U.S.
The Bing Maps team at Microsoft released a U.S.-wide vector building dataset in 2018, which includes over 125 million building footprints for all 50 states in GeoJSON format. This dataset is extracted from aerial images using deep learning object classification methods. Large-extent modelling (e.g., urban morphological analysis or ecosystem assessment models) or accuracy assessment with vector layData release for ecosystem service flows from a migratory species: spatial subsidies of the northern pintail
Migratory species provide important benefits to society, but their cross-border conservation poses serious challenges. By quantifying the economic value of ecosystem services (ES) provided across a species range and ecological data on a species habitat dependence, we estimate spatial subsidieshow different regions support ES provided by a species across its range. We illustrate this method for mig - News