Kenneth J Bagstad, Ph.D.


Ken Bagstad is a Research Economist and former Mendenhall Postdoctoral Fellow working with the USGS’ Geosciences & Environmental Change Science Center in Denver. He uses GIS and modeling to quantify, map, and value ecosystem service flows across the United States and internationally. Ken is co-leading work to construct natural capital accounts in the United States at national and regional scales. He is also interested in the integration of biophysically models of ecosystem services, primarily using the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) tool with cultural ecosystem services obtained using the Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) tool in support of resource management for the National Park Service, USDA Forest Service, and Bureau of Land Management. He has previously worked with the USGS and Bureau of Land Management to test alternative ecosystem services tools, including ARIES and InVEST, for use in decision-making for public land management. Ken has led the development of data and models for the ARIES project, which is building web-accessible and stand-alone software tools to assess ecosystem services for environmental decision-making.

From 2015-2016 Ken was seconded to the World Bank's Wealth Accounting and Valuation of Ecosystem Services (WAVES) Program as a Senior Environmental Specialist. He coordinated the development of ecosystem accounts and their application to national economic accounts in Colombia, Costa Rica, and Rwanda, and assisted with their development elsewhere. For the last several years he has co-taught an ecosystem services modeling course in Spain, and in 2015 he worked in Japan as a Japan Society for the Promotion of Science research fellow.

Ken received his Ph.D. (Natural Resources, certificate in ecological economics) from the University of Vermont, studying ecosystem services mapping and valuation, measures of economic progress, and the effects of taxes and subsidies on coastal development. For his M.S. research at from Arizona State University (Plant Biology, concentration in ecology), he studied the effects of water management on riverine plant communities of the San Pedro River in southeastern Arizona. Ken holds a B.A. from Ohio Wesleyan University (Botany and Environmental Studies).



Bagstad, K.J., D. Semmens, J. Diffendorfer, B. Mattsson, J. Dubovsky, W. Thogmartin, R. Wiederholt, J. Loomis, J. Bieri, C. Sample, J. Goldstein, and L. López –Hoffman. In press. Ecosystem service flows from a migratory species: Spatial subsidies of the northern pintail. Forthcoming in: Ambio.

Schröter, M., T. Koellner, R. Alkemade, S. Arnhold, K.J. Bagstad, K. Erb, K. Frank,. Kastner, M. Kissinger, J. Liu, L. López –Hoffman, J. Maes, A. Marques, B. Martin-López, C. Meyer, C.J.E. Schulp, J. Thober, S. Wolff, and A. Bonn. In press. Interregional flows of ecosystem services: Concepts, typology, and four cases. Forthcoming in: Ecosystem Services.

Semmens, D.J., J.E. Diffendorfer, K.J. Bagstad, R. Wiederholt, K. Oberhauser, L. Ries, B.X. Semmens, J. Goldstein, J. Loomis, W. Thogmartin, B. Mattsson, and L. López-Hoffman. In press. Quantifying ecosystem service flows at multiple scales across the range of a long-distance migratory species. Forthcoming in: Ecosystem Services.

Willcock, S., J. Martínez-López, D.A.P. Hooftman, K.J. Bagstad, S. Balbi, A. Marzo, C. Prato, S. Sciandrello, G. Signorello, B. Voigt, F. Villa, J.M. Bullock, and I.N. Athanasiadis. In press. Machine-learning for ecosystem services. Forthcoming in: Ecosystem Services.

Bagstad, K.J., E. Cohen, Z.H. Ancona, S. McNulty, and G. Sun. 2018. The sensitivity of ecosystem service models to choices of input data and spatial resolution. Applied Geography 93:25-36.

Bagstad, K.J., S. Willcock, and G. Lange. 2018. Remote sensing and modeling to fill the “gap” in missing natural capital. Pp. 199-210 in: Lange, G., Q. Wodon, and K. Carey (eds.). The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018. The World Bank: Washington, DC.

Mattsson, B., J. Dubovsky, W. Thogmartin, K.J. Bagstad, J. Goldstein, J. Loomis, J. Diffendorfer, D. Semmens, R Wiederholt, and L. López -Hoffman.  2018. Recreation economics to inform migratory species conservation: Case study of the Northern Pintail. Journal of Environmental Management 206:971-979.

Bagstad, K.J., D.J. Semmens, Z.H. Ancona, and B.C. Sherrouse. 2017. Evaluating alternative methods for biophysical and cultural ecosystem services hotspot mapping in natural resource planning. Landscape Ecology 32(1):77-97.

Dorning, M.A., S.L. Garman, J.E. Diffendorfer, D.J. Semmens, T.J. Hawbaker, and K.J. Bagstad. 2017. Oil and gas development influence big game hunting in Wyoming. Journal of Wildlife Management 81(3):379-392.

Dunford, R., P. Harrison, and K.J. Bagstad. Computer modeling for ecosystem service assessment. 2017. Pp 124-135 in: Mapping ecosystem services. B. Burkhard and J. Maes, eds. Pensoft Publishers: Sofia, Bulgaria.

López-Hoffman, L., J. Diffendorfer, R. Wiederholt, K.J. Bagstad, W. Thogmartin, G. McCracken, R.A. Medellín, A. Russell, and D.J. Semmens. 2017. Operationalizing the telecoupling framework for migratory species using the spatial subsidies approach to examine ecosystem services provided by Mexican free-tailed bats. Ecology and Society 22(4):23.

Olander, L., K.J. Bagstad, G. Characklis, P. Comer, M. Effron, J. Gunn, T. Holmes, R. Johnston, J. Kagan, W. Lehman, E. Lonsdorf, J. Loomis, T. McPhearson, A. Neale, L. Patterson, L. Richardson, T. Ricketts, M. Ross, D. Saah, S. Sifleet, K. Stockmann, D. Urban, L. Wainger, R. Winthrop, and D. Yoskowitz. 2017. Data and modeling infrastructure for national integration of ecosystem services into decision making: expert summaries. National Ecosystem Services Partnership Working Paper 16-02. Nicholas School of the Environment: Durham, NC.

Palomo, I., C.M. Adamescu, K.J. Bagstad, C. Constantin, H. Klug, and S. Nedkov. 2017. Tools for mapping ecosystem services. Pp. 70-74 in: Mapping ecosystem services. B. Burkhard and J. Maes, eds. Pensoft Publishers: Sofia, Bulgaria.

Van Riper, C.J., G.T. Kyle, B.C. Sherrouse, K.J. Bagstad, and S.G. Sutton. 2017. Toward an integrated understanding of perceived biodiversity values and environmental conditions in a national park. Ecological Indicators 72:278-287.

Wiederholt, R., K.J. Bagstad, G.F. McCracken, J.E. Diffendorfer, J. Loomis, D. Semmens, A. Russell, C. Sansone, K. LaSharr, P. Cryan, C. Reynoso, R.A. Medellin, and L. Lopez-Hoffman. 2017. Improving benefit transfers for pest control by generalist predators in cotton in the southwestern U.S. International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Services, and Management 13(1):27-39.

Bagstad, K.J., J. Reed, D. Semmens, B. Sherrouse, and A.R. Troy. 2016. Linking biophysical models and public preferences for ecosystem service assessments: A case study for the Southern Rocky Mountains. Forthcoming in: Regional Environmental Change 16(7):2005-2018.

Christin, Z.L., K.J. Bagstad, and M.A. Verdone. 2016. A decision framework for identifying models to estimate forest ecosystem services gains from restoration. Forest Ecosystems 3:3. 

Hein, L., K.J. Bagstad, B. Edens, C. Obst, R. de Jong, and J.P. Lesschen. 2016. Defining ecosystem assets for natural capital accounting. PLOS ONE 11(11):e0164460.

Zank, B., K.J. Bagstad, B. Voigt, and F. Villa. 2016. Modeling the effects of urban expansion on natural capital stocks and ecosystem service flows: A case study in the Puget Sound, Washington, USA. Landscape and Urban Planning 149:31-42.

Le, L., K.J. Bagstad, P. Cook, K. Leong, and E. DiDonato. 2015. Determinants of public support for endangered and threatened species management: A case study of Cape Lookout National Seashore. Journal of Park and Recreation Administration 33(4):16-31.

Wiederholt, R., L. López-Hoffman, C. Svancara, G. McCracken, W. Thogmartin, J. Diffendorfer, B. Mattson, K.J. Bagstad, P. Cryan, A. Russell, D. Semmens, and R.A. Medellín. 2015. Optimizing conservation strategies for Mexican free-tailed bats: A population viability and ecosystem services approach. Biodiversity and Conservation 24:63-82.

Bagstad, K.J., G. Berik, and E. Gaddis. 2014. Methodological improvements in U.S. state-level Genuine Progress Indicators: Toward GPI 2.0. Ecological Indicators 45:474-485.

Bagstad, K.J., D. Semmens, F. Villa, and G.W. Johnson. 2014. Quantifying and valuing ecosystem services: An application of ARIES to the San Pedro River basin, USA. Pp. 169-192 in: Nunes, P.A.L.D., P. Kumar, and T. Dedeurwaerdere, eds., Handbook on the Economics of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, UK.

Bagstad, K.J., F. Villa, D. Batker, J. Harrison-Cox, B. Voigt, and G. Johnson. 2014. From theoretical to actual ecosystem services: Accounting for beneficiaries and spatial flows in ecosystem service assessments. Ecology and Society 19(2):64.

Batker, D., I. de la Torre, R. Costanza, J.W. Day, P. Swedeen, R. Boumans, and K.J. Bagstad. 2014. The threats to the value of ecosystem goods and services of the Mississippi Delta. Pp. 155-173 in: Perspectives on the restoration of the Mississippi Delta: The once and future delta. J. Day, G.P. Kemp, A. Freeman, and D.P. Muth, eds. Springer: New York.

Diffendorfer, J.E., J.B. Loomis, L. Ries, K. Oberhauser, L. López-Hoffman, D. Semmens, B. Semmens, B. Butterfield, K.J. Bagstad, J. Goldstein, R. Wiederholt, B. Mattsson, and W.E. Thogmartin. 2014. National valuation of monarch butterflies indicates an untapped potential for incentive-based conservation. Conservation Letters 7(3):253-262.

Goldstein, J.H., W.E. Thogmartin, K.J. Bagstad, J. Dubovsky, B.J. Mattsson, D.J. Semmens, L. López-Hoffman, and J.E. Diffendorfer. 2014. Replacement cost valuation of Northern Pintail (Anas acuta) subsistence harvest in Arctic and sub-Arctic North America. Human Dimensions of Wildlife 19:347-354.

Grȇt-Regamey, A., B. Weibel, K.J. Bagstad, M. Ferrari, D. Geneletti, H. Klug, U. Schirpke, and U. Tappeiner. 2014. On the effects of scale for ecosystem services mapping. PLoS ONE 9(12):112601. 

López-Hoffman, L., R. Wiederholt, C. Sansone, K.J. Bagstad, P. Cryan, J.E. Diffendorfer, J. Goldstein, K. LaSharr, J. Loomis, G. McCracken, R.A. Medellín, A. Russell, and D. Semmens. 2014. Market forces and technological substitutes cause fluctuations in the value of bat pest-control services for cotton. PLoS ONE 9(2):e87912.

Villa, F., K.J. Bagstad, B. Voigt, G.W. Johnson, I.N. Athanasiadis, and S. Balbi. 2014. The misconception of ecosystem disservices: How a catchy term may yield the wrong message for science and society. Ecosystem Services 10:52-53.

Villa, F., K.J. Bagstad, B. Voigt, G.W. Johnson, R. Portela, M. Honzak, and D. Batker. 2014. A methodology for adaptable and robust ecosystem services assessment. PLoS ONE 9(3):e91001.

Wainger, L.A., R.A. Johnston, K.J. Bagstad, C.F. Casey, and T. Veigh. 2014. Social impact analysis: Monetary valuation. In: Federal Resource Management and Ecosystem Services Guidebook. National Ecosystem Services Partnership: Durham, NC.

Bagstad, K.J., G.W. Johnson, B. Voigt, and F. Villa. 2013. Spatial dynamics of ecosystem service flows: A comprehensive approach to quantifying actual services. Ecosystem Services 4:117-125.

Bagstad, K.J., D. Semmens, S. Waage, and R. Winthrop. 2013. A comparative assessment of tools for ecosystem services quantification and valuation. Ecosystem Services 5:27-39.

Bagstad, K.J., D. Semmens, and R. Winthrop. 2013. Comparing approaches to spatially explicit ecosystem service modeling: A case study from the San Pedro River, Arizona. Ecosystem Services 5:40-50.

Bagstad, K.J. and R. Wiederholt. 2013. Tourism values for Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana) viewing. Human Dimensions of Wildlife 18(4):307-311.

Bagstad, K.J., D.J. Semmens, and C. van Riper, III. 2012. Ecosystem services science and policy in arid and semiarid environments: Opportunities and challenges for the Colorado Plateau. Pp. 61-79 in: The Colorado Plateau V: Research, environmental planning, and management for effective conservation. C. van Riper, III, M.L. Villarreal, C.J. van Riper, and M.J. Johnson, eds. University of Arizona Press: Tucson.

Bagstad, K.J., D. Semmens, R. Winthrop, D. Jaworski, and J. Larson. 2012. Ecosystem services valuation to support decision making on public lands: A case study for the San Pedro River, Arizona. USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2012-5251.

Bagstad, K.J. and R. Shammin. 2012. Can the Genuine Progress Indicator better inform sustainable regional progress? - A case study for Northeast Ohio. Ecological Indicators 18:330-341.

Johnson, G.W., K.J. Bagstad, R. Snapp, and F. Villa. 2012. Service Path Attribution Networks (SPANs): A network flow approach to ecosystem service assessment. International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information Systems 3(2):54-71.

Johnson, G.W., R.R. Snapp, F. Villa, and K.J. Bagstad. 2012. Modelling ecosystem service flows under uncertainty with stochastic SPAN. Pp. 1021-1028 in: R. Seppelt, A.A. Voinov, S. Lange, and D. Bankamp, eds., Proceedings of the 2012 International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software. ISBN: 978-88-9035-742-8.

Villa, F., K.J. Bagstad, G. Johnson, and B. Voigt. 2011. Scientific instruments for climate change adaptation: Estimating and optimizing the efficiency of ecosystem services provision. Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales 11(1):83-98.

Batker, D., de la Torre, I., Costanza, R., Swedeen, P., Day, J., Boumans, R., and Bagstad, K.J. 2010. Gaining ground: Wetlands, hurricanes, and the economy: The value of restoring the Mississippi River Delta. Environmental Law Reporter 40 ELR 11106-11110.

Daniels, A.E., Bagstad, K.J., Esposito, V., Moulaert, A., and Manuel Rodriguez, C. 2010. Understanding the impacts of Costa Rica’s PES: Are we asking the right questions? Ecological Economics 69(11):2116-2126.

Johnson, G.W., K.J. Bagstad, R. Snapp, and F. Villa. 2010. Service Path Attribution Networks (SPANs): Spatially quantifying the flow of ecosystem services from landscapes to people. Lecture Notes in Computer Science 6016:238-253.

Stromberg, J.C., K.J. Bagstad, and E. Makings. 2009. Floristic Diversity. In: Ecology and conservation of the San Pedro River. J.C. Stromberg and B. Tellman, eds. University of Arizona Press: Tucson.

Bagstad, K.J. and M. Ceroni. 2008. The Genuine Progress Indicator: A new measure of economic development for the Northern Forest. Adirondack Journal of Environmental Studies 15(1):21-29.

Bagstad, K.J. and M. Ceroni. 2007. Opportunities and challenges in applying the GPI/ISEW at local scales. International Journal of Environment, Workplace, and Employment 3(2):132-153.

Bagstad, K.J., K. Stapleton, and J.R. D’Agostino. 2007. Taxes, subsidies, and insurance as drivers of United States coastal development. Ecological Economics 63:285-298.

Bagstad, K.J. 2006. Valuing ecosystem services in the Chicago region. Chicago Wilderness Journal 4(2):18-26.

Bagstad, K.J., S.J. Lite, and J.C. Stromberg. 2006. Vegetation and hydro-geomorphology of riparian patch types of a dryland river. Western North American Naturalist 66:23-44.

Bagstad, K.J., J.C. Stromberg, and S.J. Lite. 2005. Response of herbaceous riparian plant functional groups to flooding of the San Pedro River, Arizona. Wetlands 25(1):210-223.

Lite, S.J., K.J. Bagstad, and J.C. Stromberg. 2005. Riparian plant richness and abundance across gradients of water stress and flood disturbance, San Pedro River, Arizona, USA. Journal of Arid Environments 63(4):785-813.

Stromberg, J.C., K.J. Bagstad, E. Makings, S.J. Lite, and J. Leenhouts. 2005. Effect of decline in stream flow duration on channel vegetation of a semi-arid region river (San Pedro River, Arizona). River Research & Application 21(8):925-938.

Roberts, B.R., H.F. Decker, K.J. Bagstad, and K.A. Peterson. 2001. Bio-solid residues as soilless media for growing wildflower sod. HortTechnology 11(2):194-199.

Bagstad, K.J. and D.M. Johnson. 1999. Taxonomy of Xylopia barbata (Annonaceae) and related species from the Amazon/Orinoco region. Contributions of the University of Michigan Herbarium 22:21-29.