Publications
Filter Total Items: 167
A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed s
Authors
Edward H. Field, Thomas H. Jordan, Morgan T. Page, Kevin R. Milner, Bruce E. Shaw, Timothy E. Dawson, Glenn Biasi, Thomas E. Parsons, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrew J. Michael, Ray J. Weldon, Peter M. Powers, Kaj M. Johnson, Yuehua Zeng, Peter Bird, Karen Felzer, Nicholas van der Elst, Christopher Madden, Ramon Arrowsmith, Maximillan J. Werner, Wayne R. Thatcher
Dam removal: Listening in
Dam removal is widely used as an approach for river restoration in the United States. The increase in dam removals—particularly large dams—and associated dam-removal studies over the last few decades motivated a working group at the USGS John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis to review and synthesize available studies of dam removals and their findings. Based on dam removals thus far
Authors
Melissa M. Foley, James Bellmore, James E. O'Connor, Jeffrey J. Duda, Amy E. East, Gordon G. Grant, Chauncey W. Anderson, Jennifer A. Bountry, Mathias J. Collins, Patrick J. Connolly, Laura S. Craig, James E. Evans, Samantha Greene, Francis J. Magilligan, Christopher S. Magirl, Jon J. Major, George R. Pess, Timothy J. Randle, Patrick B. Shafroth, Christian E. Torgersen, Desiree D. Tullos, Andrew C. Wilcox
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Natural Hazards Mission Area, Water Resources Mission Area, Volcano Hazards Program, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, Oregon Water Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Volcano Science Center, Western Fisheries Research Center, Columbia River Research Laboratory (CRRL)
Integrating geographically isolated wetlands into land management decisions
Wetlands across the globe provide extensive ecosystem services. However, many wetlands – especially those surrounded by uplands, often referred to as geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs) – remain poorly protected. Protection and restoration of wetlands frequently requires information on their hydrologic connectivity to other surface waters, and their cumulative watershed‐scale effects. The inte
Authors
Heather E. Golden, Irena F. Creed, Genevieve Ali, Nandita Basu, Brian Neff, Mark C. Rains, Daniel L. McLaughlin, Laurie C. Alexander, Ali A. Ameli, Jay R. Christensen, Grey R. Evenson, Charles N. Jones, Charles R. Lane, Megan Lang
A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era
Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records
Authors
Julian Emile-Geay, Nicholas P. McKay, Darrell S. Kaufman, Lucien von Gunten, Jianghao Wang, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Nerilie J. Abram, Jason A. Addison, Mark A.J. Curran, Michael N. Evans, Benjamin J. Henley, Zhixin Hao, Belen Martrat, Helen V. McGregor, Raphael Neukom, Gregory T. Pederson, Barbara Stenni, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Johannes P. Werner, Chenxi Xu, Dmitry V. Divine, Bronwyn C. Dixon, Joelle Gergis, Ignacio A. Mundo, T. Nakatsuka, Steven J. Phipps, Cody C. Routson, Eric J. Steig, Jessica E. Tierney, Jonathan J. Tyler, Kathryn J. Allen, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Jesper Bjorklund, Brian M. Chase, Min-Te Chen, Ed Cook, Rixt de Jong, Kristine L. DeLong, Daniel A. Dixon, Alexey A. Ekaykin, Vasile Ersek, Helena L. Filipsson, Pierre Francus, Mandy B. Freund, M. Frezzotti, Narayan P. Gaire, Konrad Gajewski, Quansheng Ge, Hugues Goosse, Anastasia Gornostaeva, Martin Grosjean, Kazuho Horiuchi, Anne Hormes, Katrine Husum, Elisabeth Isaksson, Selvaraj Kandasamy, Kenji Kawamura, Nalan Koc, Guillaume Leduc, Hans W. Linderholm, Andrew M. Lorrey, Vladimir Mikhalenko, P. Graham Mortyn, Hideaki Motoyama, Andrew D. Moy, Robert Mulvaney, Philipp M. Munz, David J. Nash, Hans Oerter, Thomas Opel, Anais J. Orsi, Dmitriy V. Ovchinnikov, Trevor J. Porter, Heidi Roop, Casey Saenger, Masaki Sano, David Sauchyn, K.M. Saunders, Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz, Mirko Severi, X. Shao, Marie-Alexandrine Sicre, Michael Sigl, Kate Sinclair, Scott St. George, Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques, Meloth Thamban, Udya Kuwar Thapa, E. Thomas, Chris Turney, Ryu Uemura, A.E. Viau, Diana O. Vladimirova, Eugene Wahl, James W. C. White, Z. Yu, Jens Zinke
Landscape context and the biophysical response of rivers to dam removal in the United States
Dams have been a fundamental part of the U.S. national agenda over the past two hundred years. Recently, however, dam removal has emerged as a strategy for addressing aging, obsolete infrastructure and more than 1,100 dams have been removed since the 1970s. However, only 130 of these removals had any ecological or geomorphic assessments, and fewer than half of those included before- and after-remo
Authors
Melissa M. Foley, Francis J. Magilligan, Christian E. Torgersen, Jon J. Major, Chauncey W. Anderson, Patrick J. Connolly, Daniel J. Wieferich, Patrick B. Shafroth, James E. Evans, Dana M. Infante, Laura Craig
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Water Resources Mission Area, Science Synthesis, Analysis and Research Program, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Program, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, Oregon Water Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
A spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an operational earthquake forecast
We, the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, present a spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type aftershock sequ
Authors
Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Thomas H. Jordan, Andrew J. Michael, Bruce E. Shaw, Maximillan J. Werner
Synthesis centers as critical research infrastructure
Demand for the opportunity to participate in a synthesis-center activity has increased in the years since the US National Science Foundation (NSF)–funded National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) opened its doors in 1995 and as more scientists across a diversity of scientific disciplines have become aware of what synthesis centers provide. The NSF has funded four synthesis cent
Authors
Jill Baron, Alison Specht, Eric Garnier, Pamela Bishop, C. Andrew Campbell, Frank W. Davis, Bruno Fady, Dawn Field, Louis J. Gross, Siddeswara M. Guru, Benjamin S Halpern, Stephanie E. Hampton, Peter R. Leavitt, Thomas R. Meagher, Jean Ometto, John N. Parker, Richard Price, Casey H. Rawson, Allen Rodrigo, Laura A. Sheble, Marten Winter
Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands
Drylands occur world-wide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change since dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability, and also change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect clim
Authors
Britta Tietjen, Daniel R. Schlaepfer, John B. Bradford, William K. Laurenroth, Sonia A. Hall, Michael C. Duniway, Tamara Hochstrasser, Gensuo Jia, Seth M. Munson, David A. Pyke, Scott D. Wilson
Density estimates of monarch butterflies overwintering in central Mexico
Given the rapid population decline and recent petition for listing of the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus L.) under the Endangered Species Act, an accurate estimate of the Eastern, migratory population size is needed. Because of difficulty in counting individual monarchs, the number of hectares occupied by monarchs in the overwintering area is commonly used as a proxy for population size, whic
Authors
Wayne E. Thogmartin, James E. Diffendorfer, Laura Lopez-Hoffman, Karen Oberhauser, John M. Pleasants, Brice X. Semmens, Darius J. Semmens, Orley R. Taylor, Ruscena Wiederholt
Status and trends of dam removal research in the United States
Aging infrastructure coupled with growing interest in river restoration has driven a dramatic increase in the practice of dam removal. With this increase, there has been a proliferation of studies that assess the physical and ecological responses of rivers to these removals. As more dams are considered for removal, scientific information from these dam-removal studies will increasingly be called u
Authors
James Bellmore, Jeffrey J. Duda, Laura Craig, Samantha L. Greene, Christian E. Torgersen, Mathias J. Collins, Katherine Vittum
Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils
Drylands cover 40% of the global terrestrial surface and provide important ecosystem services. While drylands as a whole are expected to increase in extent and aridity in coming decades, temperature and precipitation forecasts vary by latitude and geographic region suggesting different trajectories for tropical, subtropical, and temperate drylands. Uncertainty in the future of tropical and subtrop
Authors
Daniel R. Schlaepfer, John B. Bradford, William K. Lauenroth, Seth M. Munson, Britta Tietjen, Sonia A. Hall, Scott D. Wilson, Michael C. Duniway, Gensuo Jia, David A. Pyke, Ariuntsetseg Lkhagva, Khishigbayar Jamiyansharav
Best practices for virtual participation in meetings: Experiences from synthesis centers
The earth environment is a complex system, in which collaborative scientific approaches can provide major benefits by bringing together diverse perspectives, methods, and data, to achieve robust, synthetic understanding (Fig. 1). Face-to-face scientific meetings remain extremely valuable because of the opportunity to build deep mutual trust and understanding, and develop new collaborations and som
Authors
Stephanie E. Hampton, Benjamin S. Halpern, Marten Winter, Jennifer K. Balch, John N. Parker, Jill Baron, Margaret Palmer, Mark P. Schildhauer, Pamela Bishop, Thomas R. Meagher, Alison Specht