Probabilistic Forecasting of Earthquakes, Tsunamis, and Earthquake Effects in the Coastal Zone
The nation's coastlines are vulnerable to the interrelated hazards posed by earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. In the marine environment these events often occur in concert, and distant triggers can cause severe local effects, making the issue global in scope. As the population continues to migrate toward the coastlines, the social impacts of these hazards are expected to grow.
Products are aimed for use in regional multi-hazard assessments, and might range from complete assessments to analysis tools, interpreted data, or models. We are interacting with groups tasked with making formal hazard assessments and have provided products needed by them in a timely manner (e.g., Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)). These collaborations will continue to be a major guiding influence, and we plan to maintain research flexibility needed for proper response as necessary. As such, the task is defined thematically. The larger community will help to establish guidelines on regions in which we will we work.
Research Web Sites
Tsunami and Earthquake Research
This site provides general information about how earthquakes generate tsunamis, as well as descriptions and animations of historical tsunamis, virtual reality models showing how tsunamis change as they approach and bounce off coastlines, and summaries of past fieldwork in areas struck by major tsunamis.
Earthquake Hazards Program
We work closely with scientists in the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with the goal of providing relevant scientific information to reduce deaths, injuries, and property damage from earthquakes.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)
We collaborate with groups that make formal hazard assessments, such as the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), providing and evaluating the latest scientific information. This site presents the most recent collaborative earthquake forecasts for all of California.
Global Geoengineering Research
The Coastal and Marine Geology geoengineering group investigates the causes of ground deformation and ground failures—such as landslides and liquefaction—that result from earthquakes, storms, and wave action.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Global Geoengineering Research
Tsunami Hazards, Modeling, and the Sedimentary Record
Tsunami and Earthquake Research
Below are FAQ associated with this project.
Could a large tsunami happen in the United States?
Large tsunamis have occurred in the United States and will undoubtedly occur again. Significant earthquakes around the Pacific rim have generated tsunamis that struck Hawaii, Alaska, and the U.S. west coast. One of the largest and most devastating tsunamis that Hawaii has experienced was in 1946 from an earthquake along the Aleutian subduction zone. Runup heights reached a maximum of 33 to 55 feet...
Is there a system to warn populations of an imminent occurrence of a tsunami?
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) maintains the U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers , and work in conjunction with USGS seismic networks to help determine when and where to issue tsunami warnings. Also, if an earthquake meets certain criteria for potentially generating a tsunami, the pop-up window and the event page for that earthquake on the USGS Latest Earthquakes Map will include...
What are tsunamis?
Tsunamis are ocean waves triggered by: Large earthquakes that occur near or under the ocean Volcanic eruptions Submarine landslides Onshore landslides in which large volumes of debris fall into the water Scientists do not use the term "tidal wave" because these waves are not caused by tides. Tsunami waves are unlike typical ocean waves generated by wind and storms, and most tsunamis do not "break"...
What is it about an earthquake that causes a tsunami?
Although earthquake magnitude is one factor that affects tsunami generation, there are other important factors to consider. The earthquake must be a shallow marine event that displaces the seafloor. Thrust earthquakes (as opposed to strike slip) are far more likely to generate tsunamis, but small tsunamis have occurred in a few cases from large (i.e., > M8) strike-slip earthquakes. Note the...
What is the difference between a tsunami and a tidal wave?
Although both are sea waves, a tsunami and a tidal wave are two different and unrelated phenomena. A tidal wave is a shallow water wave caused by the gravitational interactions between the Sun, Moon, and Earth ("tidal wave" was used in earlier times to describe what we now call a tsunami.) A tsunami is an ocean wave triggered by large earthquakes that occur near or under the ocean, volcanic...
Can you predict earthquakes?
No. Neither the USGS nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. We do not know how, and we do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. USGS scientists can only calculate the probability that a significant earthquake will occur ( shown on our hazard mapping ) in a specific area within a certain number of years. An earthquake prediction must define 3 elements...
What is the difference between earthquake early warning, earthquake forecasts, earthquake probabilities, and earthquake prediction?
The USGS uses these four terms to refer to four different things . Early warning is a notification that is issued after an earthquake starts. Probabilities and forecasts are comparable to climate probabilities and weather forecasts, while predictions are more like statements of when, where, and how large, which is not yet possible for earthquakes. Here are more detailed descriptions of each...
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Global Geoengineering Research
Tsunami Hazards, Modeling, and the Sedimentary Record
Tsunami and Earthquake Research
Below are FAQ associated with this project.
Could a large tsunami happen in the United States?
Large tsunamis have occurred in the United States and will undoubtedly occur again. Significant earthquakes around the Pacific rim have generated tsunamis that struck Hawaii, Alaska, and the U.S. west coast. One of the largest and most devastating tsunamis that Hawaii has experienced was in 1946 from an earthquake along the Aleutian subduction zone. Runup heights reached a maximum of 33 to 55 feet...
Is there a system to warn populations of an imminent occurrence of a tsunami?
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) maintains the U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers , and work in conjunction with USGS seismic networks to help determine when and where to issue tsunami warnings. Also, if an earthquake meets certain criteria for potentially generating a tsunami, the pop-up window and the event page for that earthquake on the USGS Latest Earthquakes Map will include...
What are tsunamis?
Tsunamis are ocean waves triggered by: Large earthquakes that occur near or under the ocean Volcanic eruptions Submarine landslides Onshore landslides in which large volumes of debris fall into the water Scientists do not use the term "tidal wave" because these waves are not caused by tides. Tsunami waves are unlike typical ocean waves generated by wind and storms, and most tsunamis do not "break"...
What is it about an earthquake that causes a tsunami?
Although earthquake magnitude is one factor that affects tsunami generation, there are other important factors to consider. The earthquake must be a shallow marine event that displaces the seafloor. Thrust earthquakes (as opposed to strike slip) are far more likely to generate tsunamis, but small tsunamis have occurred in a few cases from large (i.e., > M8) strike-slip earthquakes. Note the...
What is the difference between a tsunami and a tidal wave?
Although both are sea waves, a tsunami and a tidal wave are two different and unrelated phenomena. A tidal wave is a shallow water wave caused by the gravitational interactions between the Sun, Moon, and Earth ("tidal wave" was used in earlier times to describe what we now call a tsunami.) A tsunami is an ocean wave triggered by large earthquakes that occur near or under the ocean, volcanic...
Can you predict earthquakes?
No. Neither the USGS nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. We do not know how, and we do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. USGS scientists can only calculate the probability that a significant earthquake will occur ( shown on our hazard mapping ) in a specific area within a certain number of years. An earthquake prediction must define 3 elements...
What is the difference between earthquake early warning, earthquake forecasts, earthquake probabilities, and earthquake prediction?
The USGS uses these four terms to refer to four different things . Early warning is a notification that is issued after an earthquake starts. Probabilities and forecasts are comparable to climate probabilities and weather forecasts, while predictions are more like statements of when, where, and how large, which is not yet possible for earthquakes. Here are more detailed descriptions of each...