The Hazards Societal Consequences and Risk Communication project is led by Anne Wein at the Western Geographic Science Center (WGSC).
The umbrella project is Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR), which estimates consequences of natural hazard disaster scenarios as a strategy to engage decision-makers in increasing a community’s ability to cope with the effects of a disaster. Scenarios for earthquakes (ShakeOut, HayWired), a winter storm (ARkStorm), and a tsunami have been developed with partners and stakeholders to apply scientific information to community decision making and emergency management. The scenarios are constructed from a foundation of earth science describing the hazard events that are translated into physical and environmental damages, and social and economic consequences. WGSC's role has been geographical analyses, the coordination of societal consequences, and contracting of project evaluations. Experience with SAFRR scenarios has inspired and enabled other research in related areas of risk analysis and risk communication. One example is research about the communication of aftershock information during the Canterbury New Zealand earthquake sequence.
WGSC’s researchers - in cooperation with other USGS science centers and external subject experts - engage in the following analyses:
Geographical Analyses — The center has conducted GIS analyses across the science, engineering, environmental, and societal consequence aspects of the scenarios. Spatial analyses are used to map multiple hazards and estimate the exposure or damages to populations, land uses, infrastructures, and buildings to these hazards.
Economic Consequence Analyses — Economic consequence analysis pertains to business interruption (productivity) losses due to physical damages, lifeline service outages, and ripple effects along supply chains. In catastrophic events when recovery languishes for many years business interruption losses can exceed physical repair and replacement costs (e.g., Hurricane Katrina). The economic consequence analysis includes an investigation of economic resilience at the levels of firms, sectors, and the regional economy. In collaboration with the University of Southern Californian and Boston University and the Association of Bay Area Governments, economic forecasting and policy analysis tools (e.g., Input-output, REMI, and computable general equilibrium models) are applied to estimate potential business interruption losses and economic resilience.
Recovery Analyses and Community Studies — Just as police and fire fighters need exercises to prepare for emergency response, so must the "second wave" of responders — city managers, planners, building officials, engineers, and other staff who will have local recovery responsibilities. Thus, the recovery phase of a disaster also deserves attention in scenario-based emergency management exercises. In collaboration with Laurie Johnson Consulting, Inc. the ShakeOut scenario was extended by populating a recovery model in consultation with communities, and the HayWired scenario includes an integrated analysis of communites at risk.
Qualitative Analyses — Surveys and qualitative analyses are used to evaluate the effectiveness of the SAFRR scenario development process, project outputs, and communication of results. WGSC has managed evaluation contracts for the Tsunami and HayWired scenario with the Natural Hazards Center Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder. In collaboration with GNS Science, WGSC studied the communication of aftershock information during the Canterbury earthquake sequence.
Below are research projects focusing on Hazards Societal Consequences and Risk Communication
HayWired
Aftershock Forecast Communication for Risk Reduction
SAFRR Tsunami Scenario
ARkStorm
Serious Games for Science
ShakeOut
Below are reports and journal articles published under the Hazards Societal Consequences and Risk Communication project.
The HayWired earthquake scenario—Engineering implications
The HayWired earthquake scenario—Earthquake hazards
Economic impacts of a California tsunami
Aftershock communication during the Canterbury Earthquakes, New Zealand: Implications for response and recovery in the built environment
Agricultural damages and losses from ARkStorm scenario flooding in California
Regional analysis of social characteristics for evacuation resource planning: ARkStorm scenario
SAFRR tsunami scenario: Impacts on California ecosystems, species, marine natural resources, and fisheries
Population vulnerability and evacuation challenges in California for the SAFRR tsunami scenario
Economic impacts of the SAFRR tsunami scenario in California: Chapter H in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario
SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario
Serious games experiment toward agent-based simulation
Overview of the ARkStorm scenario
The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Scientists gather at USGS to discuss findings from Napa quake
MENLO PARK, Calif. (KGO) --
Five months after the South Napa earthquake, scientists gathered on Wednesday at the U.S. Geological Survey to talk about what they're learning from it and what it means for the next big one here in the Bay Area.
Below are partners associated with this project.
- Overview
The Hazards Societal Consequences and Risk Communication project is led by Anne Wein at the Western Geographic Science Center (WGSC).
The umbrella project is Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR), which estimates consequences of natural hazard disaster scenarios as a strategy to engage decision-makers in increasing a community’s ability to cope with the effects of a disaster. Scenarios for earthquakes (ShakeOut, HayWired), a winter storm (ARkStorm), and a tsunami have been developed with partners and stakeholders to apply scientific information to community decision making and emergency management. The scenarios are constructed from a foundation of earth science describing the hazard events that are translated into physical and environmental damages, and social and economic consequences. WGSC's role has been geographical analyses, the coordination of societal consequences, and contracting of project evaluations. Experience with SAFRR scenarios has inspired and enabled other research in related areas of risk analysis and risk communication. One example is research about the communication of aftershock information during the Canterbury New Zealand earthquake sequence.
WGSC’s researchers - in cooperation with other USGS science centers and external subject experts - engage in the following analyses:
Geographical Analyses — The center has conducted GIS analyses across the science, engineering, environmental, and societal consequence aspects of the scenarios. Spatial analyses are used to map multiple hazards and estimate the exposure or damages to populations, land uses, infrastructures, and buildings to these hazards.
Economic Consequence Analyses — Economic consequence analysis pertains to business interruption (productivity) losses due to physical damages, lifeline service outages, and ripple effects along supply chains. In catastrophic events when recovery languishes for many years business interruption losses can exceed physical repair and replacement costs (e.g., Hurricane Katrina). The economic consequence analysis includes an investigation of economic resilience at the levels of firms, sectors, and the regional economy. In collaboration with the University of Southern Californian and Boston University and the Association of Bay Area Governments, economic forecasting and policy analysis tools (e.g., Input-output, REMI, and computable general equilibrium models) are applied to estimate potential business interruption losses and economic resilience.
Recovery Analyses and Community Studies — Just as police and fire fighters need exercises to prepare for emergency response, so must the "second wave" of responders — city managers, planners, building officials, engineers, and other staff who will have local recovery responsibilities. Thus, the recovery phase of a disaster also deserves attention in scenario-based emergency management exercises. In collaboration with Laurie Johnson Consulting, Inc. the ShakeOut scenario was extended by populating a recovery model in consultation with communities, and the HayWired scenario includes an integrated analysis of communites at risk.
Qualitative Analyses — Surveys and qualitative analyses are used to evaluate the effectiveness of the SAFRR scenario development process, project outputs, and communication of results. WGSC has managed evaluation contracts for the Tsunami and HayWired scenario with the Natural Hazards Center Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder. In collaboration with GNS Science, WGSC studied the communication of aftershock information during the Canterbury earthquake sequence.
- Science
Below are research projects focusing on Hazards Societal Consequences and Risk Communication
HayWired
The HayWired scenario examines a hypothetical earthquake (mainshock) with a moment magnitude of 7.0 occurring on April 18, 2018, at 4:18 p.m. on the Hayward Fault in the east bay part of California’s San Francisco Bay area. Most economic, cultural, and personal elements of society have grown entwined with the Internet since the last time California experienced a large urban earthquake. What will...Aftershock Forecast Communication for Risk Reduction
Studies of the communication of aftershock information during the Canterbury, New Zealand earthquake sequence conducted by Hazards Societal Consequences and Risk Communication team members and collaborators in New Zealand are examining the use of risk communication products, risk communication strategies, and risk-based decision-making. Focus groups and interviews were conducted with a range of...SAFRR Tsunami Scenario
The third SAFRR scenario is initiated by a magnitude 9.0 megathrust earthquake in the eastern Aleutian Islands, an event presenting a hypothetical but plausible distant-tsunami threat to southern and central California. USGS and other federal and state agencies entities developed the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. The scenario describes wave heights, current velocities and inundation for the coast of...ARkStorm
The SAFRR project’s second scenario, called ARkStorm, addresses massive U.S. West Coast storms analogous to those that devastated California in 1861–62. Storms of this magnitude are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. The SAFRR project assembled experts from scientific research agencies to design the large, but scientifically plausible, hypothetical storm...Serious Games for Science
Serious or pedagogical games are an engaging way to educate decisionmakers and stakeholders about environmental challenges that are usefully informed by natural and social scientific information and knowledge. USGS designed two serious games intended to promote interactive learning and exploration in the face of large uncertainties, divergent values, and complex situations. Delta Skelta is a game...ShakeOut
The ShakeOut Scenario was located in southern California where earthquake risk is high compared to the rest of the country. This scenario is a hypothetical, but plausible 7.8 magnitude earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. This scenario was completed in May 2008. The ShakeOut Scenario is described in two publications: The Scenario (Jones and others) and The Narrative (Perry and others)... - Publications
Below are reports and journal articles published under the Hazards Societal Consequences and Risk Communication project.
Filter Total Items: 18The HayWired earthquake scenario—Engineering implications
The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Engineering Implications is the second volume of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013, which describes the HayWired scenario, developed by USGS and its partners. The scenario is a hypothetical yet scientifically realistic earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during aThe HayWired earthquake scenario—Earthquake hazards
The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward FaultEconomic impacts of a California tsunami
The economic consequences of a tsunami scenario for Southern California are estimated using computable general equilibrium analysis. The economy is modeled as a set of interconnected supply chains interacting through markets but with explicit constraints stemming from property damage and business downtime. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction of Gross Domestic Product for Southern CalifoAftershock communication during the Canterbury Earthquakes, New Zealand: Implications for response and recovery in the built environment
On 4 September 2010, a Mw7.1 earthquake occurred in Canterbury, New Zealand. Following the initial earthquake, an aftershock sequence was initiated, with the most significant aftershock being a Mw6.3 earthquake occurring on 22 February 2011. This aftershock caused severe damage to the city of Christchurch and building failures that killed 185 people. During the aftershock sequence it became evidenAgricultural damages and losses from ARkStorm scenario flooding in California
Scientists designed the ARkStorm scenario to challenge the preparedness of California communities for widespread flooding with a historical precedence and increased likelihood under climate change. California is an important provider of vegetables, fruits, nuts, and other agricultural products to the nation. This study analyzes the agricultural damages and losses pertaining to annual crops, perennRegional analysis of social characteristics for evacuation resource planning: ARkStorm scenario
Local planning is insufficient for regional catastrophes; regional exercises are needed to test emergency plans and decision-making structures. The ARkStorm scenario would trigger a mass evacuation that would be complicated by the social characteristics of populations [e.g., vehicle ownership, age, poverty, English language limitation (ELL), and shelter needs]. Land cover data and dasymetric mappiSAFRR tsunami scenario: Impacts on California ecosystems, species, marine natural resources, and fisheries
We evaluate the effects of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario on California’s ecosystems, species, natural resources, and fisheries. We discuss mitigation and preparedness approaches that can be useful in Tsunami planning. The chapter provides an introduction to the role of ecosystems and natural resources in tsunami events (Section 1). A separate section focuses on specific impacts of the SAFRR Tsunami SPopulation vulnerability and evacuation challenges in California for the SAFRR tsunami scenario
The SAFRR tsunami scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical yet plausible tsunami associated with a magnitude 9.1 megathrust earthquake east of the Alaska Peninsula. This report summarizes community variations in population vulnerability and potential evacuation challenges to the tsunami. The most significant public-health concern for California coastal communities during a distant-source tsunEconomic impacts of the SAFRR tsunami scenario in California: Chapter H in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario
This study evaluates the hypothetical economic impacts of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario to the California economy. The SAFRR scenario simulates a tsunami generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake that occurs offshore of the Alaska Peninsula (Kirby and others, 2013). Economic impacts are measured by the estimated reduction in California’s gross domesSAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario
The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), theSerious games experiment toward agent-based simulation
We evaluate the potential for serious games to be used as a scientifically based decision-support product that supports the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission--to provide integrated, unbiased scientific information that can make a substantial contribution to societal well-being for a wide variety of complex environmental challenges. Serious or pedagogical games are an engaging way toOverview of the ARkStorm scenario
The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to
- News
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Scientists gather at USGS to discuss findings from Napa quake
MENLO PARK, Calif. (KGO) --
Five months after the South Napa earthquake, scientists gathered on Wednesday at the U.S. Geological Survey to talk about what they're learning from it and what it means for the next big one here in the Bay Area.
- Partners
Below are partners associated with this project.