The term "100-year flood" is used to describe the recurrence interval of floods. The 100-year recurrence interval means that a flood of that magnitude has a one percent chance of occurring in any given year. In other words, the chances that a river will flow as high as the 100-year flood stage this year is 1 in 100. Statistically, each year begins with the same 1-percent chance that a 100-year event will occur.
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Does an increase in the 100-year flood estimate originate from climate or land-use change?
Climate variability (dry cycles to wet cycles) and land-use change play a significant role, but there is a large amount of uncertainty around the flood quantile estimates (the value of discharge corresponding to the 100-year flood), particularly if there isn’t a long record of observed data at a stream location. Learn more: The 100-Year Flood The 100-Year Flood--It's All About Chance
How are floods predicted?
Flood predictions require several types of data: The amount of rainfall occurring on a real-time basis. The rate of change in river stage on a real-time basis, which can help indicate the severity and immediacy of the threat. Knowledge about the type of storm producing the moisture, such as duration, intensity and areal extent, which can be valuable for determining possible severity of the...
How can a 1,000-year rainfall not result in a 1,000-year flood?
It comes down to a number of factors, including the pattern of movement of the rainstorm in each particular watershed, the conditions of the soil and plant matter in the watershed, and the timing of the rainstorm in one watershed versus other watersheds. For example, if the ground is already saturated before a rainstorm, much of the rain will run off into streams, but if the ground is dry, it will...
What are the two types of floods?
There are two basic types of floods: flash floods and the more widespread river floods. Flash floods generally cause greater loss of life and river floods generally cause greater loss of property. A flash flood occurs when runoff from excessive rainfall causes a rapid rise in the water height (stage) of a stream or normally-dry channel. Flash floods are more common in areas with a dry climate and...
What is a 1,000-year flood?
The term “1,000-year flood” means that, statistically speaking, a flood of that magnitude (or greater) has a 1 in 1,000 chance of occurring in any given year. In terms of probability, the 1,000-year flood has a 0.1% chance of happening in any given year. These statistical values are based on observed data.
Where can I find flood maps?
FEMA is the official public source for flood maps for insurance purposes: FEMA’s Flood Map Service Center FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer NOAA is responsible for producing flood forecast maps that combine precipitation data with USGS streamflow data: National Weather Service - Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service River Forecasts Long-Range River Flood Risk Coastal Inundation Dashboard: Real...
Why do the values for the 100-year flood seem to change with every flood?
The amount of water corresponding to a 100-year flood, a 500-year flood, or a 1,000-year flood is known as a "flood quantile". For instance, on a given river, the flood quantile corresponding to the 50-year flood might be 10,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) and the flood quantile corresponding to the 100-year flood might be 15,000 cfs. The estimates of the flood quantiles are calculated using...
How USGS gages are used in flood forecasting
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operates an extensive nationwide network of stream, rain, and groundwater gages. These instruments are used to monitor how much water there is across the Nation at any given moment. Stream data are collected at streamgages every 15 minutes, transmitted to USGS servers, and updated online in real time. To improve awareness of current water conditions and possible f
Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency — Bulletin 17C
Popular myths about flooding in Western Washington
100-Year flood–it's all about chance
The world's largest floods, past and present: Their causes and magnitudes
Large floods in the United States: where they happen and why
Water-quantity and water-quality aspects of a 500-year flood - Nishnabotna River, southwest Iowa, June 1998
Technique for estimating the 2- to 500-year flood discharges on unregulated streams in rural Missouri
The flood of December 1982 and the 100- and 500-year flood on the Buffalo River, Arkansas
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- FAQ
Does an increase in the 100-year flood estimate originate from climate or land-use change?
Climate variability (dry cycles to wet cycles) and land-use change play a significant role, but there is a large amount of uncertainty around the flood quantile estimates (the value of discharge corresponding to the 100-year flood), particularly if there isn’t a long record of observed data at a stream location. Learn more: The 100-Year Flood The 100-Year Flood--It's All About Chance
How are floods predicted?
Flood predictions require several types of data: The amount of rainfall occurring on a real-time basis. The rate of change in river stage on a real-time basis, which can help indicate the severity and immediacy of the threat. Knowledge about the type of storm producing the moisture, such as duration, intensity and areal extent, which can be valuable for determining possible severity of the...
How can a 1,000-year rainfall not result in a 1,000-year flood?
It comes down to a number of factors, including the pattern of movement of the rainstorm in each particular watershed, the conditions of the soil and plant matter in the watershed, and the timing of the rainstorm in one watershed versus other watersheds. For example, if the ground is already saturated before a rainstorm, much of the rain will run off into streams, but if the ground is dry, it will...
What are the two types of floods?
There are two basic types of floods: flash floods and the more widespread river floods. Flash floods generally cause greater loss of life and river floods generally cause greater loss of property. A flash flood occurs when runoff from excessive rainfall causes a rapid rise in the water height (stage) of a stream or normally-dry channel. Flash floods are more common in areas with a dry climate and...
What is a 1,000-year flood?
The term “1,000-year flood” means that, statistically speaking, a flood of that magnitude (or greater) has a 1 in 1,000 chance of occurring in any given year. In terms of probability, the 1,000-year flood has a 0.1% chance of happening in any given year. These statistical values are based on observed data.
Where can I find flood maps?
FEMA is the official public source for flood maps for insurance purposes: FEMA’s Flood Map Service Center FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer NOAA is responsible for producing flood forecast maps that combine precipitation data with USGS streamflow data: National Weather Service - Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service River Forecasts Long-Range River Flood Risk Coastal Inundation Dashboard: Real...
Why do the values for the 100-year flood seem to change with every flood?
The amount of water corresponding to a 100-year flood, a 500-year flood, or a 1,000-year flood is known as a "flood quantile". For instance, on a given river, the flood quantile corresponding to the 50-year flood might be 10,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) and the flood quantile corresponding to the 100-year flood might be 15,000 cfs. The estimates of the flood quantiles are calculated using...
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How USGS gages are used in flood forecasting
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operates an extensive nationwide network of stream, rain, and groundwater gages. These instruments are used to monitor how much water there is across the Nation at any given moment. Stream data are collected at streamgages every 15 minutes, transmitted to USGS servers, and updated online in real time. To improve awareness of current water conditions and possible f
AuthorsSteven SobieszczykGuidelines for determining flood flow frequency — Bulletin 17C
Accurate estimates of flood frequency and magnitude are a key component of any effective nationwide flood risk management and flood damage abatement program. In addition to accuracy, methods for estimating flood risk must be uniformly and consistently applied because management of the Nation’s water and related land resources is a collaborative effort involving multiple actors including most levelAuthorsJohn F. England, Timothy A. Cohn, Beth A. Faber, Jery R. Stedinger, Wilbert O. Thomas, Andrea G. Veilleux, Julie E. Kiang, Robert R. Mason,Popular myths about flooding in Western Washington
Floods are the most destructive natural hazard in the Nation, causing more deaths and financial loss in the 20th century than any other natural disaster. The most significant 20 riverine floods of the 20th century for which data are available have killed more than 1,843 people and caused more than $50 billion (uninflated) in damages (Perry, 2000). One of the most common means of describing the sevAuthorsJoseph L. Jones100-Year flood–it's all about chance
In the 1960's, the United States government decided to use the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flood as the basis for the National Flood Insurance Program. The 1-percent AEP flood was thought to be a fair balance between protecting the public and overly stringent regulation. Because the 1-percent AEP flood has a 1 in 100 chance of being equaled or exceeded in any 1 year, and it has aAuthorsRobert R. Holmes, Karen DinicolaThe world's largest floods, past and present: Their causes and magnitudes
Floods are among the most powerful forces on earth. Human societies worldwide have lived and died with floods from the very beginning, spawning a prominent role for floods within legends, religions, and history. Inspired by such accounts, geologists, hydrologists, and historians have studied the role of floods on humanity and its supporting ecosystems, resulting in new appreciation for the many-faAuthorsJim E. O'Connor, John E. CostaLarge floods in the United States: where they happen and why
The spatial distribution of large gaged floods throughout the United States shows that the locations of most of the largest flows are related to specific combinations of regional climatology, topography, and basin size. Key factors include the general northward trend of decreasing atmospheric moisture, proximity to oceanic moisture sources such as the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, and orieAuthorsJim E. O'Connor, John E. CostaWater-quantity and water-quality aspects of a 500-year flood - Nishnabotna River, southwest Iowa, June 1998
Flooding that occurred in southwest Iowa during June 15–17, 1998, was the worst flood ever recorded on the Nishnabotna River, exceeding the theoretical 500-year flood calculated from peak-flow records (1922 to present). This flood was a direct consequence of severe thunderstorm activity that caused more than 4 inches of rain to fall over a large part of the Nishnabotna River Basin. In fact, a newAuthorsDana W. Kolpin, Edward E. Fischer, Douglas J. SchnoebelenTechnique for estimating the 2- to 500-year flood discharges on unregulated streams in rural Missouri
A generalized least-squares regression technique was used to relate the 2- to 500-year flood discharges from 278 selected streamflow-gaging stations to statistically significant basin characteristics. The regression relations (estimating equations) were defined for three hydrologic regions (I, II, and III) in rural Missouri. Ordinary least-squares regression analyses indicate that drainage area (RAuthorsTerry W. Alexander, Gary L. WilsonThe flood of December 1982 and the 100- and 500-year flood on the Buffalo River, Arkansas
Flood profiles, peak discharges, and stages were determined for the December 1982, the 100-year, and the 500-year floods at 17 sites along the Buffalo River, Arkansas. Typical synthetic stage hydrographs for the 100- and 500-year floods were determined for each site. Flow duration data for gaging stations at St. Joe and Rush are shown. The average velocity of the water for the 100- and 500-year flAuthorsB.L. Neely - News