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Publications

Publications, scientific literature, and information products from the Land Change Science Program.

Filter Total Items: 565

Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise

Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of...
Authors
Nathan G. McDowell, A.P. Williams, C. Xu, W. T. Pockman, L. T. Dickman, Sanna Sevanto, R. Pangle, J. Limousin, J.J. Plaut, D.S. Mackay, J. Ogee, Jean-Christophe Domec, Craig Allen, Rosie Fisher, X. Jiang, J.D. Muss, D.D. Breshears, Sara Rauscher, C. Koven

Soil moisture response to experimentally altered snowmelt timing is mediated by soil, vegetation, and regional climate patterns Soil moisture response to experimentally altered snowmelt timing is mediated by soil, vegetation, and regional climate patterns

Soil moisture in seasonally snow-covered environments fluctuates seasonally between wet and dry states. Climate warming is advancing the onset of spring snowmelt and may lengthen the summer-dry state and ultimately cause drier soil conditions. The magnitude of either response may vary across elevation and vegetation types. We situated our study at the lower boundary of persistent snow...
Authors
Lafe Conner, Richard Gill, Jayne Belnap

Status and trends of land change in the Midwest–South Central United States—1973 to 2000 Status and trends of land change in the Midwest–South Central United States—1973 to 2000

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794–C is the third in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation’s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Midwest–South Central United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes A, B, and D provide similar analyses for the Western United States, the...
Authors
Roger Auch, Krista Karstensen

Uranium-series ages of fossil corals from Mallorca, Spain: The "Neotyrrhenian" high stand of the Mediterranean Sea revisited Uranium-series ages of fossil corals from Mallorca, Spain: The "Neotyrrhenian" high stand of the Mediterranean Sea revisited

The emergent marine deposits of the Mediterranean basin have been recognized as an important record of Quaternary sea level history for more than a century. Previous workers identified what have been interpreted to be two separate high stands of sea in the late Quaternary, namely the “Eutyrrhenian” (thought to be ~ 120 ka) and the “Neotyrrhenian” (thought to be either ~ 100 ka or ~ 80 ka...
Authors
Daniel R. Muhs, Kathleen R. Simmons, Naomi Porat

Observations of net soil exchange of CO2 in a dryland show experimental warming increases carbon losses in biocrust soils Observations of net soil exchange of CO2 in a dryland show experimental warming increases carbon losses in biocrust soils

Many arid and semiarid ecosystems have soils covered with well-developed biological soil crust communities (biocrusts) made up of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface. These communities are a fundamental component of dryland ecosystems, and are critical to dryland carbon (C) cycling. To examine the effects of warming temperatures on soil C balance...
Authors
Anthony N. Darrouzet-Nardi, Sasha Reed, Edmund Grote, Jayne Belnap

Moisture and temperature controls on nitrification differ among ammonia oxidizer communities from three alpine soil habitats Moisture and temperature controls on nitrification differ among ammonia oxidizer communities from three alpine soil habitats

Climate change is altering the timing and magnitude of biogeochemical fluxes in many high elevation ecosystems. The consequent changes in alpine nitrification rates have the potential to influence ecosystem scale responses. In order to better understand how changing temperature and moisture conditions may influence ammonia oxidizers and nitrification activity, we conducted laboratory...
Authors
Brooke B. Osborne, Jill Baron, Matthew Wallenstein

Flushing of distal hillslopes as an alternative source of stream dissolved organic carbon in a headwater catchment Flushing of distal hillslopes as an alternative source of stream dissolved organic carbon in a headwater catchment

We investigated potential source areas of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in headwater streams by examining DOC concentrations in lysimeter, shallow well, and stream water samples from a reference catchment at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest. These observations were then compared to high-frequency temporal variations in fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) at the catchment...
Authors
John Gannon, Scott Bailey, Kevin McGuire, James Shanley

Tidal and seasonal variations in calving flux observed with passive seismology Tidal and seasonal variations in calving flux observed with passive seismology

The seismic signatures of calving events, i.e., calving icequakes, offer an opportunity to examine calving variability with greater precision than is available with other methods. Here using observations from Yahtse Glacier, Alaska, we describe methods to detect, locate, and characterize calving icequakes. We combine these icequake records with a coincident, manually generated record of...
Authors
T.C. Bartholomaus, Christopher Larsen, Michael West, Shad O’Neel, Erin Pettit, Martin Truffer

Predictions of future ephemeral springtime waterbird stopover habitat availability under global change Predictions of future ephemeral springtime waterbird stopover habitat availability under global change

In the present period of rapid, worldwide change in climate and landuse (i.e., global change), successful biodiversity conservation warrants proactive management responses, especially for long-distance migratory species. However, the development and implementation of management strategies can be impeded by high levels of uncertainty and low levels of control over potentially impactful...
Authors
Daniel Uden, Craig Allen, Andrew Bishop, Roger Grosse, Christopher Jorgensen, Theodore LaGrange, Randy Stutheit, Mark Vrtiska

Growth responses of five desert plants as influenced by biological soil crusts from a temperate desert, China Growth responses of five desert plants as influenced by biological soil crusts from a temperate desert, China

In almost all dryland systems, biological soil crusts (biocrusts) coexist alongside herbaceous and woody vegetation, creating landscape mosaics of vegetated and biocrusted patches. Results from past studies on the interaction between biocrusts and vascular plants have been contradictory. In the Gurbantunggut desert, a large temperate desert in northwestern China, well-developed lichen...
Authors
Yuanming Zhang, Jayne Belnap

Mercury in stream water at five Czech catchments across a Hg and S deposition gradient Mercury in stream water at five Czech catchments across a Hg and S deposition gradient

The Czech Republic was heavily industrialized in the second half of the 20th century but the associated emissions of Hg and S from coal burning were significantly reduced since the 1990s. We studied dissolved (filtered) stream water mercury (Hg) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations at five catchments with contrasting Hg and S deposition histories in the Bohemian part of the...
Authors
Tomáš Navrátil, James Shanley, Jan Rohovec, Filip Oulehle, Pavel Kram, Sarka Matouskova, Miroslav Tesar, Maria Hojdová

Engagement with indigenous peoples and honoring traditional knowledge systems Engagement with indigenous peoples and honoring traditional knowledge systems

The organizers of the 2014 US National Climate Assessment (NCA) made a concerted effort to reach out to and collaborate with Indigenous peoples, resulting in the most comprehensive information to date on climate change impacts to Indigenous peoples in a US national assessment. Yet, there is still much room for improvement in assessment processes to ensure adequate recognition of...
Authors
Julie Maldonado, Bull Bennett, Karletta Chief, Patricia Cochran, Karen Cozetto, Bob Gough, Margaret Hiza-Redsteer, Kathy Lynn, Nancy Maynard, Garrit Voggesser
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