Publications
Publications, scientific literature, and information products from the Land Change Science Program.
Filter Total Items: 565
Soil data for a vegetation gradient located at Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research Site, interior Alaska Soil data for a vegetation gradient located at Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research Site, interior Alaska
Boreal soils play an important role in the global carbon cycle owing to the large amount of carbon stored within this northern region. To understand how carbon and nitrogen storage varied among different ecosystems, a vegetation gradient was established in the Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site, located in interior Alaska. The ecosystems represented are a black...
Authors
Kristen Manies, Jennifer Harden, Christopher Fuller, Xiaomei Xu, John McGeehin
State-and-transition simulation models: a framework for forecasting landscape change State-and-transition simulation models: a framework for forecasting landscape change
SummaryA wide range of spatially explicit simulation models have been developed to forecast landscape dynamics, including models for projecting changes in both vegetation and land use. While these models have generally been developed as separate applications, each with a separate purpose and audience, they share many common features.We present a general framework, called a state-and...
Authors
Colin Daniel, Leonardo Frid, Benjamin Sleeter, Marie-Josee Fortin
The PRISM4 (mid-Piacenzian) paleoenvironmental reconstruction The PRISM4 (mid-Piacenzian) paleoenvironmental reconstruction
The mid-Piacenzian is known as a period of relative warmth when compared to the present day. A comprehensive understanding of conditions during the Piacenzian serves as both a conceptual model and a source for boundary conditions as well as means of verification of global climate model experiments. In this paper we present the PRISM4 reconstruction, a paleoenvironmental reconstruction of...
Authors
Harry Dowsett, Aisling Dolan, David Rowley, Robert Moucha, Alessandro Forte, Jerry Mitrovica, Matthew Pound, Ulrich Salzmann, Marci Robinson, Mark Chandler, Kevin Foley, Alan Haywood
Processes contributing to resilience of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise Processes contributing to resilience of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise
The objectives of this study were to identify processes that contribute to resilience of coastal wetlands subject to rising sea levels and to determine whether the relative contribution of these processes varies across different wetland community types. We assessed the resilience of wetlands to sea-level rise along a transitional gradient from tidal freshwater forested wetland (TFFW) to...
Authors
Camille Stagg, Ken Krauss, Donald Cahoon, Nicole Cormier, William Conner, Christopher Swarzenski
The intertropical convergence zone modulates intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin The intertropical convergence zone modulates intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin
Most Atlantic hurricanes form in the Main Development Region between 9°N to 20°N along the northern edge of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Previous research has suggested that meridional shifts in the ITCZ position on geologic timescales can modulate hurricane activity, but continuous and long-term storm records are needed from multiple sites to assess this hypothesis. Here...
Authors
Peter van Hengstrum, Jeffrey Donnelly, Patricia Fall, Michael Toomey, Nancy Albury, Brian Kakuk
Regional differences in upland forest to developed (urban) land cover conversions in the conterminous U.S., 1973–2011 Regional differences in upland forest to developed (urban) land cover conversions in the conterminous U.S., 1973–2011
In this U.S. Geological Survey study of forest land cover across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS), specific proportions and rates of forest conversion to developed (urban) land were assessed on an ecoregional basis. The study period was divided into six time intervals between 1973 and 2011. Forest land cover was the source of 40% or more of the new urban land in 35 of the 84 ecoregions...
Authors
Roger Auch, Mark Drummond, George Xian, Kristi Sayler, William Acevedo, Janis Taylor
A synthesis of the basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet A synthesis of the basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet
The basal thermal state of an ice sheet (frozen or thawed) is an important control upon its evolution, dynamics and response to external forcings. However, this state can only be observed directly within sparse boreholes or inferred conclusively from the presence of subglacial lakes. Here we synthesize spatially extensive inferences of the basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet...
Authors
Joseph MacGregor, Mark Fahnestock, Ginny Catania, Andy Aschwanden, Gary Clow, William Colgan, Prasad Gogineni, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, John Paden, Stephen F. Price, Helene Seroussi
Historical baselines and the future of shell calcification for a foundation species in a changing ocean Historical baselines and the future of shell calcification for a foundation species in a changing ocean
Seawater pH and the availability of carbonate ions are decreasing due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, posing challenges for calcifying marine species. Marine mussels are of particular concern given their role as foundation species worldwide. Here, we document shell growth and calcification patterns in Mytilus californianus, the California mussel, over millennial and decadal...
Authors
Catherine Pfister, Kaustuv Roy, Timothy Wootton, Sophie McCoy, Robert Paine, Tom Suchanek, Eric Sanford
Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of Alaska Baseline and projected future carbon storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of Alaska
This assessment was conducted to fulfill the requirements of section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 and to contribute to knowledge of the storage, fluxes, and balance of carbon and methane gas in ecosystems of Alaska. The carbon and methane variables were examined for major terrestrial ecosystems (uplands and wetlands) and inland aquatic ecosystems in Alaska in...
One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data
The current fires raging across Indonesia are emitting more carbon than the annual fossil fuel emissions of Germany or Japan, and the fires are still consuming vast tracts of rainforest and peatlands. The National Interagency Fire Center (www.nifc.gov) notes that 2015 is one worst fire years on record in the U.S., where more than 9 million acres burned -- equivalent to the combined size...
Authors
Natalie Kehrwald, Julie Aleman, Michael Coughlan, Colin Courtney Mustaphi, Esther Githumbi, Brian Magi, Jennifer Marlon, Mitchell Power
Cenozoic sea level and the rise of modern rimmed atolls Cenozoic sea level and the rise of modern rimmed atolls
Sea-level records from atolls, potentially spanning the Cenozoic, have been largely overlooked, in part because the processes that control atoll form (reef accretion, carbonate dissolution, sediment transport, vertical motion) are complex and, for many islands, unconstrained on million-year timescales. Here we combine existing observations of atoll morphology and corelog stratigraphy...
Authors
Michael Toomey, Andrew Ashton, Maureen Raymo, J. Perron
Methane and sulfate dynamics in sediments from mangrove-dominated tropical coastal lagoons, Yucatan, Mexico Methane and sulfate dynamics in sediments from mangrove-dominated tropical coastal lagoons, Yucatan, Mexico
Porewater profiles in sediment cores from mangrove-dominated coastal lagoons (Celestún and Chelem) on the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico, reveal the widespread coexistence of dissolved methane and sulfate. This observation is interesting since dissolved methane in porewaters is typically oxidized anaerobically by sulfate. To explain the observations we used a numerical transport-reaction...
Authors
P. Chuang, Megan Young, Andrew Dale, Laurence G. Miller, Jorge Herrera-Silveira, Adina Paytan