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Publications

Publications, scientific literature, and information products from the Land Change Science Program.

Filter Total Items: 562

Analyzing cloud base at local and regional scales to understand tropical montane cloud forest vulnerability to climate change

The degree to which cloud immersion provides water in addition to rainfall, suppresses transpiration, and sustains tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs) during rainless periods is not well understood. Climate and land use changes represent a threat to these forests if cloud base altitude rises as a result of regional warming or deforestation. To establish a baseline for quantifying future changes
Authors
Ashley E. Van Beusekom, Grizelle González, Martha A. Scholl

Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents
Authors
Benjamin M. Sleeter, Nathan J. Wood, Christopher E. Soulard, Tamara S. Wilson

Evaluating species-specific changes in hydrologic regimes: an iterative approach for salmonids in the Greater Yellowstone Area (USA)

Despite the importance of hydrologic regimes to the phenology, demography, and abundance of fishes such as salmonids, there have been surprisingly few syntheses that holistically assess regional, species-specific trends in hydrologic regimes within a framework of climate change. Here, we consider hydrologic regimes within the Greater Yellowstone Area in the Rocky Mountains of western North America
Authors
Robert K. Al-Chokhachy, Adam J. Sepulveda, Andrew M. Ray, David P. Thoma, Michael T. Tercek

Distance and environmental difference in alpine plant communities

Differences in plant communities are a response to the abiotic environment, species interactions, and dispersal. The role of geographic distance relative to the abiotic environment is explored for alpine tundra vegetation from 319 plots of four regions along the Rocky Mountain cordillera in the USA. The site by species data were ordinated using nonmetric multidimensional scaling to produce depende
Authors
George P. Malanson, Dale L. Zimmerman, Daniel B. Fagre

Drought, multi-seasonal climate, and wildfire in northern New Mexico

Wildfire is increasingly a concern in the USA, where 10 million acres burned in 2015. Climate is a primary driver of wildfire, and understanding fire-climate relationships is crucial for informing fire management and modeling the effects of climate change on fire. In the southwestern USA, fire-climate relationships have been informed by tree-ring data that extend centuries prior to the onset of fi
Authors
Ellis Margolis, Connie A. Woodhouse, Thomas W. Swetnam

Baseline and projected future carbon storage and carbon fluxes in ecosystems of Hawai‘i

This assessment was conducted to fulfill the requirements of section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 and to improve understanding of factors influencing carbon balance in ecosystems of Hawai‘i. Ecosystem carbon storage, carbon fluxes, and carbon balance were examined for major terrestrial ecosystems on the seven main Hawaiian islands in two time periods: baseline (from 2007

Tropical river suspended sediment and solute dynamics in storms during an extreme drought

Droughts, which can strongly affect both hydrologic and biogeochemical systems, are projected to become more prevalent in the tropics in the future. We assessed the effects of an extreme drought during 2015 on stream water composition in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico. We demonstrated that drought base flow in the months leading up to the study was sourced from trade-wind orographic rainfal
Authors
Kathryn E. Clark, James B. Shanley, Martha A. Scholl, Nicolas Perdrial, Julia N. Perdrial, Alain F. Plante, William H. McDowell

The history of mercury pollution near the Spolana chlor-alkali plant (Neratovice, Czech Republic) as recorded by Scots pine tree rings and other bioindicators

We assessed > 100 years of mercury (Hg) pollution recorded in the tree rings of Scots Pine near a Czech chlor-alkali plant operating since 1941. Hg concentrations in tree rings increased with the launching of plant operations and decreased when Hg emissions decreased in 1975 due to an upgrade in production technology. Similar to traditional bioindicators of pollution such as pine needles, bark and
Authors
Tomáš Navrátil, Martin Šimeček, James B. Shanley, Jan Rohovec, Maria Hojdová, Jakub Houška

Temporal variability of foliar nutrients: responses to nitrogen deposition and prescribed fire in a temperate steppe

Plant nutrient concentrations and stoichiometry drive fundamental ecosystem processes, with important implications for primary production, diversity, and ecosystem sustainability. While a range of evidence exists regarding how plant nutrients vary across spatial scales, our understanding of their temporal variation remains less well understood. Nevertheless, we know nutrients regulate plant functi
Authors
Xiao-Tao Lü, Sasha C. Reed, Shuang-Li Hou, Yan-Yu Hu, Hai-Wei Wei, Fu-Mei Lü, Qiang Cui, Xing Guo Han

Climate legacy and lag effects on dryland plant communities in the southwestern U.S.

Climate change effects on vegetation will likely be strong in the southwestern U.S., which is projected to experience large increases in temperature and changes in precipitation. Plant communities in the southwestern U.S. may be particularly vulnerable to climate change as the productivity of many plant species is strongly water-limited. This study examines the relationship between climate and veg
Authors
Erin Bunting, Seth M. Munson, Miguel L. Villarreal

High sensitivity of gross primary production in the Rocky Mountains to summer rain

In the catchments of the Rocky Mountains, peak snowpack is declining in response to warmer spring temperatures. To understand how this will influence terrestrial gross primary production (GPP), we compared precipitation data across the intermountain west with satellite retrievals of solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), a proxy for GPP. Annual precipitation patterns explained most of the spatial and t
Authors
M. Berkelhammer, I.C. Stefanescu, J. Joiner, Lesleigh Anderson

Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise

Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential soluti
Authors
Ken W. Krauss, Nicole Cormier, Michael J. Osland, Matthew L. Kirwan, Camille L. Stagg, Janet A. Nestlerode, Marc J. Russell, Andrew From, Amanda C. Spivak, Darrin D. Dantin, James E. Harvey, Alejandro E. Almario