Natural Hazards

Publications

Filter Total Items: 6,462
Publication Thumbnail
Year Published: 2021

A geology and geodesy based model of dynamic earthquake rupture on the Rodgers Creek‐Hayward‐Calaveras Fault System, California

The Hayward fault in California's San Francisco Bay area produces large earthquakes, with the last occurring in 1868. We examine how physics‐based dynamic rupture modeling can be used to numerically simulate large earthquakes on not only the Hayward fault, but also its connected companions to the north and south, the Rodgers Creek and Calaveras...

Harris, Ruth A.; Barall, Michael; Lockner, David A.; Moore, Diane E.; Ponce, David A.; Graymer, Russell; Funning, Gareth J.; Morrow, Carolyn A.; Kyriakopoulos, Christodoulos; Eberhart-Phillips, Donna

Publication Thumbnail
Year Published: 2021

The weight of cities: Urbanization effects on Earth’s subsurface

Across the world, people increasingly choose to live in cities. By 2050, 70% of Earth's population will live in large urban areas. Upon considering a large city, questions arise such as, how much does that weigh? What are its effects on the landscape? Does it cause measurable subsidence? Here I calculate the weight of San Francisco Bay region...

Parsons, Thomas E.

Publication Thumbnail
Year Published: 2021

Geochemistry of coastal permafrost and erosion-driven organic matter fluxes to the Beaufort Sea near Drew Point, Alaska

Accelerating erosion of the Alaska Beaufort Sea coast is increasing inputs of organic matter from land to the Arctic Ocean, and improved estimates of organic matter stocks in eroding coastal permafrost are needed to assess their mobilization rates under contemporary conditions. We collected three permafrost cores (4.5–7.5 m long) along a...

Bristol, Emily M.; Connolly, Craig T.; Lorenson, Thomas; Richmond, Bruce M.; Ilgen, Anastasia G.; Choens, Charles R.; Bull, Diana L.; Kanevskiy, Mikhail Z.; Iwahana, Go; Jones, Benjamin M.; McClelland, James M.

Publication Thumbnail
Year Published: 2021

Editorial: Flooding on coral reef-lined coasts: Current state of knowledge and future challenges

No abstract available.

Skirving, William; Pomeroy, Andrew; McCall, Robert T.; Marra, John ; Storlazzi, Curt

Publication Thumbnail
Year Published: 2021

Modeling hydrologic processes associated with soil saturation and debris flow initiation during the September 2013 storm, Colorado Front Range

Seven days of extreme rainfall during September 2013 produced more than 1100 debris flows in the Colorado Front Range, about 78% of which occurred on south-facing slopes (SFS). Previously published soil moisture (volumetric water content) observations suggest that SFS were wetter than north-facing slopes (NFS) during the event, which contrasts...

Timilsina, Sujana; Niemann, Jeffrey D.; Rathburn, Sara L.; Rengers, Francis K.; Nelson, Peter A.

Publication Thumbnail
Year Published: 2021

Toward physics-based nonergodic PSHA: A prototype fully-deterministic seismic hazard model for southern California

We present a nonergodic framework for probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA) that is constructed entirely of deterministic, physical models. The use of deterministic ground‐motion simulations in PSHA calculations is not new (e.g., CyberShake), but prior studies relied on kinematic rupture generators to extend empirical earthquake rupture...

Milner, Kevin R.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Goulet, Christine A.; Richards-Dinger, Keith B.; Callaghan, Scott; Jordan, Thomas H.; Dieterich, James H.; Field, Edward H.

Publication Thumbnail
Year Published: 2021

A subset of CyberShake ground-motion time series for response-history analysis

This manuscript describes a subset of CyberShake numerically simulated ground motions that were selected and vetted for use in engineering response-history analyses. Ground motions were selected that have seismological properties and response spectra representative of conditions in the Los Angeles area, based on disaggregation of seismic hazard....

Baker, Jack W.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Goulet, Christine A.; Luco, Nicolas; Teng, Ganyu

Publication Thumbnail
Year Published: 2021

Toward an integrative geological and geophysical view of Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes

The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) is an exceptional geologic environment for recording evidence of land level changes, tsunamis, and ground motion that reveals at least 19 great megathrust earthquakes over the past 10 kyr. Such earthquakes are among the most impactful natural hazards on Earth, transcend national boundaries, and can have global...

Walton, Maureen A. L.; Staisch, Lydia M.; Dura, Tina; Pearl, Jessie Kathleen; Sherrod, Brian; Gomberg, Joan S.; Engelhart, Simon E.; Trehu, Anne; Watt, Janet; Perkins, Jonathan P; Witter, Robert C.; Bartlow, Noel; Goldfinger, Chris; Kelsey, Harvey; Morey, Ann; Sahakian, Valerie J.; Tobin, Harold; Wang, Kelin; Wells, Ray; Wirth, Erin

Publication Thumbnail
Year Published: 2021

Evaluation of simulated ground motions using probabilistic seismic demand analysis: CyberShake (ver. 15.12) simulations for Ordinary Standard Bridges

There is a need for benchmarking and validating simulated ground motions in order for them to be utilized by the engineering community. Such validation may be geared towards a specific ground motion simulation method, a target engineering application, and a specific location; the validation presented herein focuses on a bridge engineering...

Fayaz, Jawad; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Zareian, Farzin

Publication Thumbnail
Year Published: 2021

Apparent earthquake rupture predictability

To what extent can the future evolution of an ongoing earthquake rupture be predicted? This question of fundamental scientific and practical importance has recently been addressed by studies of teleseismic source time functions (STFs) but reaching contrasting conclusions. One study concludes that the initial portion of STFs is the same regardless...

Meier, M.-A.; Ampuero, P.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Page, Morgan T.

Publication Thumbnail
Year Published: 2021

A unified model of crustal stress heterogeneity from borehole breakouts and earthquake focal mechanisms

Observations of crustal stress orientation from the regional inversion of earthquake focal mechanisms often conflict with those from borehole breakouts, possibly indicating local stress heterogeneity, either laterally or with depth. To investigate this heterogeneity, we compiled SHmax estimates from previous studies for 57 near‐vertical boreholes...

Luttrell, Karen; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

Publication Thumbnail
Year Published: 2021

The impacts of the 2015/2016 El Niño on California's sandy beaches

The El Niño Southern Oscillation is the most dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the Pacific. The 2015/2016 El Niño event was one of the strongest of the last 145 years, resulting in anomalously high wave energy across the U.S. West Coast, and record coastal erosion for many California beaches. To better manage coastal resources,...

Smith, Schuyler A; Barnard, Patrick L.