Natural Hazards

Publications

Filter Total Items: 6,090
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Year Published: 2019

Impact of down-dip rupture limit and high stress drop subevents on coseismic land-level change during Cascadia megathrust earthquakes

Seismic hazard associated with Cascadia megathrust earthquakes is strongly dependent on the landward rupture extent and heterogeneous fault properties. We use 3-D numerical simulations and a seismic velocity model for Cascadia to estimate coseismic deformation due to ~M9 earthquake scenarios. Our earthquake source model is based on observations of...

Wirth, Erin A.; Frankel, Arthur

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Year Published: 2019

Improvements in seismic resolution and current limitations in the Global Seismographic Network

Station noise levels play a fundamental limitation in our ability to detect seismic signals. These noise levels are frequency-dependent and arise from a number of physically different drivers. At periods greater than 100 s, station noise levels are often limited by the self-noise of the instrument as well as the sensitivity of the instrument to...

Ringler, Adam T.; Steim, J.; Wilson, David C.; Widmer-Schnidrig, R.; Anthony, Robert E.

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Year Published: 2019

The HayWired earthquake scenario—Societal consequences

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Societal Consequences is the third volume of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013, which describes the HayWired scenario, developed by USGS and its partners. The scenario is a hypothetical yet scientifically realistic earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand...

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.
Detweiler, S.T., and Wein, A.M., eds., The HayWired earthquake scenario—Societal consequences: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013–R–W, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013V3.

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Year Published: 2019

The 30 November 2018 Mw7.1 Anchorage Earthquake

The Mw">Mw 7.1 47 km deep earthquake that occurred on 30 November 2018 had deep societal impacts across southcentral Alaska and exhibited phenomena of broad scientific interest. We document observations that point to future directions of research and hazard mitigation. The rupture mechanism, aftershocks, and deformation of the...

West, Michael E.; Bender, Adrian; Gardine, Matthew; Gardine, Lea; Gately, Kara; Haeussler, Peter; Hassan, Wael; Meyer, Franz; Richards, Cole; Ruppert, Natalia; Tape, Carl; Thornley, John; Witter, Robert

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Year Published: 2019

Stormquakes

Seismic signals from ocean-solid Earth interactions are ubiquitously recorded on our planet. However, these wavefields are typically incoherent in most frequency bands limiting their utilization for understanding ocean dynamics or solid Earth properties. In contrast, we find that during large storms such as hurricanes and Nor’easters the...

Fan, Wenyuan; McGuire, Jeffrey; de Groot-Hedlin, C. D.; Hedlin, M. A. H.; Coats, S.; Fiedler, J. W.

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Year Published: 2019

Assessing the feasibility of satellite-based thresholds for hydrologically driven landsliding

Elevated soil moisture and heavy precipitation contribute to landslides worldwide. These environmental variables are now being resolved with satellites at spatiotemporal scales that could offer new perspectives on the development of landslide warning systems. However, the application of these data to hydro-meteorological thresholds (which account...

Thomas, Matthew A.; Collins, Brian D.; Mirus, Benjamin B.

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Year Published: 2019

A multidisciplinary coastal vulnerability assessment for local government focused on ecosystems, Santa Barbara area, California

Incorporating coastal ecosystems in climate adaptation planning is needed to maintain the well-being of both natural and human systems. Our vulnerability study uses a multidisciplinary approach to evaluate climate change vulnerability of an urbanized coastal community that could serve as a model approach for communities worldwide, particularly in...

Myers, Monique; Barnard, Patrick L.; Beighley, Edward; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dugan, Jenifer E.; Feng, Dongmei; Iacobellis, Samuel F.; Melack, John M.; Page, Henry M.

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Year Published: 2019

Modeling sediment bypassing around idealized rocky headlands

Alongshore sediment bypassing rocky headlands remains understudied despite the importance of characterizing littoral processes for erosion abatement, beach management, and climate change adaptation. To address this gap, a numerical model sediment transport study was developed to identify controlling factors and mechanisms for sediment headland...

Douglas A. George; John L. Largier; Greg B. Pasternack; Barnard, Patrick L.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Erikson, Li H.

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Year Published: 2019

Permeability anisotropy and relative permeability in sediments from the National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02, offshore India

Gas and water permeability through hydrate-bearing sediments essentially governs the economic feasibility of gas production from gas hydrate deposits. Characterizing a reservoir’s permeability can be difficult because even collocated permeability measurements can vary by 4-5 orders of magnitude, due partly to differences between how various...

Dai, Sheng; Kim, J.; Xu, Yue; Waite, William F.; Jang, Junbong; Yoneda, J.; Collett, Timothy S.; Kumar, Pushpendra

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Year Published: 2019

Physical property characteristics of gas hydrate-bearing reservoir and associated seal sediments collected during NGHP-02 in the Krishna-Godavari Basin, in the offshore of India

India’s National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02), was conducted to better understand geologic controls on gas hydrate occurrence and morphology, targeting potentially coarse-grained sediments near the base of the continental slope offshore eastern India. This study combines seismic, logging-while-drilling data, and a petroleum systems...

Jang, Junbong; Waite, William F.; Stern, Laura A.; Collett, Timothy S.; Kumar, Pushpendra

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Year Published: 2019

Compressibility and particle crushing of Krishna-Godavari Basin sediments from offshore India: Implications for gas production from deep-water gas hydrate deposits

Depressurizing a gas hydrate reservoir to extract methane induces high effective stresses that act to compress the reservoir. Predicting whether a gas hydrate reservoir is viable as an energy resource requires enhanced understanding of the reservoir’s compressibility and susceptibility to particle crushing in response to elevated effective stress...

Kim, J.; Dai, Sheng; Jang, Junbong; Waite, William F.; Collett, Timothy S.; Kumar, Pushpendra

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Year Published: 2019

Ensembles of ETAS models provide optimal operational earthquake forecasting during swarms: Insights from the 2015 San Ramon, California swarm

Earthquake swarms, typically modeled as time-varying changes in background seismicity that are driven by external processes such as fluid flow or aseismic creep, present challenges for operational earthquake forecasting. While the time decay of aftershock sequences can be estimated with the modified Omori law, it is difficult to forecast the...

Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.