Articles

Spatial machine learning models can be developed from observations with substantial unexplainable variability, sometimes called ‘noise’. Traditional point-scale metrics (e.g., R2) alone can be misleading when evaluating these models. We present a multi-scale performance evaluation (MPE) using two additional scales (distributional and geostatistical). We apply the MPE framework to...

Evaluating the status and trends of natural-origin anadromous fish populations over time requires robust estimates of out-migrating juvenile abundance. Information on abundance is typically acquired by capturing actively migrating fish as they pass stationary monitoring platforms. Challenges to estimation include protracted migration timing, temporally varying capture probabilities and...

The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (MPWP, ~ 3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent example of a persistently warmer climate in equilibrium with atmospheric CO2 concentrations similar to today. Towards studying patterns and dynamics of a warming climate the MPWP is often compared to today. Following the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) protocol we prepare a water isotope...

Plateau spot-tailed earless lizards, Holbrookia lacerata, are a species of ground lizard in central Texas that are under review for listing as endangered under the US Endangered Species Act, but heretofore no predictive models of population dynamics or viability have been developed. We used limited available data and published demographic rates in a PVA model to predict future status of...

This work evaluates glacial dust as a source of sediment, and associated iron (Fe), to the Fe-limited Gulf of Alaska (GoA). A reanalysis of GoA sediment data, using rare earth elements and thorium as provenance tracers, suggests a flux to the ocean surface of Copper River (AK) glacial dust, and associated Fe, that is comparable to the flux of dust from Asia, at least 1,000 km from the...

The recently discovered Fåvne vent field, located at 3,040 m depth on the slow-spreading Mohns mid-ocean ridge between Greenland and Norway, is a high-temperature (≥250°C) vent field that is characterized by Fe oxyhydroxide-rich and S-poor chimneys and mounds. The vent field is located on both the hanging wall and footwall of a normal fault with a ∼1.5 km throw that forms the western...

To estimate predicted ground motion from a teleseismic slip model, we use a low‐ and high‐frequency hybrid method to simulate the regional, strong ground motions observed following the 18 April 2014 moment magnitude (⁠Mw⁠) 7.3 Papanoa, Mexico, earthquake. To generate the regional ground motion at low frequencies (1 Hz) are added using a 1D full‐wave propagation code that estimates...

Reintroduction efforts are increasingly used to mitigate biodiversity losses, but are frequently challenged by inadequate planning and uncertainty. High quality information about population status and threats can be used to prioritize reintroduction and restoration efforts and can transform ad hoc approaches into opportunities for improving conservation outcomes at a landscape scale. We...

Ocean acidification can affect the immune responses of fish, but effects on pathogen susceptibility remain uncertain. Pacific herring Clupea pallasii were reared from hatch under 3 CO2 partial pressure ( pCO2) treatments (ambient, ∼650 µatm; intermediate, ∼1500 µatm; high, ∼3000 µatm) through metamorphosis (98 d) to evaluate the effects of ocean acidification on bioenergetics and...

The wild to domestic bird interface is an important nexus for emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. Although the recent incursion of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b into North America calls for emergency response and planning given the unprecedented scale, readily available data-driven models are lacking. Here, we provide high resolution spatial and...

Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under...

Groundwater seepage from underlying permeable glacial sedimentary structures, such as eskers, has been hypothesized to directly feed pools in northern peat bogs. These hypotheses directly contradict classical peat bog models for ombrogenous systems, wherein meteoric water is the sole water input to these systems. Variations in the underlying mineral sediment in contact with the peat...