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Preprints

Browse preprint publications authored by USGS scientists.

Filter Total Items: 57

Local water use and climate drive water stress over the conterminous United States with substantial impacts to fish species of conservation concern Local water use and climate drive water stress over the conterminous United States with substantial impacts to fish species of conservation concern

There is a growing need for consistent, large-scale estimates of water availability to identify and avoid potential conflicts among human and ecosystem uses of water. We present an assessment of water limitation, defined as the monthly balance (difference) between water supply (ws) and human consumptive water use (wc), for the conterminous United States (CONUS) during water years 2010...
Authors
Edward G. Stets, Olivia L. Miller, Matthew J. Cashman, Kathryn Powlen, Anthony J. Martinez, Althea A. Archer, Julie Padilla

Diverging trends in nitrate and phosphorus loads and yields across Illinois watersheds, 1997–2022 Diverging trends in nitrate and phosphorus loads and yields across Illinois watersheds, 1997–2022

Illinois is a major contributor of nutrients to the northern Gulf of Mexico. As such, the State of Illinois initiated efforts to curb nutrient runoff over the last several decades. To evaluate progress towards these reductions, water-quality data were used to estimate incremental loads and yields of nitrate plus nitrite (NO3) and total phosphorus (TP) from 1997–2022 for 49 Illinois...
Authors
Brock J.W. Kamrath, Jennifer C. Murphy, Lindsey Ayn Schafer, Hannah Lee Podzorski, Gregory F. McIsaac

Rare habitats, rare species, and invasive predators highlight management complexities in the Colorado River system Rare habitats, rare species, and invasive predators highlight management complexities in the Colorado River system

Long-term drought caused Lake Powell, a reservoir on the Colorado River (USA), to decline to its lowest elevation in >50 years during 2022–2023, allowing warm water to pass through intakes of Glen Canyon Dam and facilitating invasion by non-native Smallmouth Bass (Micropterus dolomieu). Establishment of bass downstream of the dam could threaten persistence of several native fishes...
Authors
Blake Hossack, Kenzi Marie Stemp, Caren S Goldberg, Alexandra C. Duke, Taryn Preston, J. Andrew Arnold, Adam R Ray

Ungulate personality and the human shield contribute to long-distance migration loss Ungulate personality and the human shield contribute to long-distance migration loss

Long-distance ungulate migrations are declining and past research has focused on preserving migration paths where habitat fragmentation and loss disrupts movement corridors. However, changing residency-migration tradeoffs are the stronger driver of long-distance migration loss in some populations. The human shield effect relative to predation risk and anthropogenic food resources likely...
Authors
Gavin G. Cotterill, Paul C. Cross, Eric K Cole, Sarah R. Dewey, Benjamin L. Wise, Tabitha A. Graves

Rock sample photogrammetry Rock sample photogrammetry

This step-by-step protocol describes the photogrammetry process used by the U.S. Geological Survey Spokane Imaging Lab (SPIMG) lab to create 3D models of geologic samples. Steps related to photographing small objects are applicable to photogrammetry in general, however, SPIMG-specific steps involving lab hardware and software may not be.
Authors
Lucas Leonidus Evart

New technology for an ancient fish: A lamprey life cycle modeling tool with an R Shiny application New technology for an ancient fish: A lamprey life cycle modeling tool with an R Shiny application

Lampreys (Petromyzontiformes) are an ancient group of fishes with complex life histories. We created a life cycle model that includes an R Shiny interactive web application interface to simulate abundance by life stage. This will allow scientists and managers to connect available demographic information in a framework that can be applied to questions regarding lamprey biology and...
Authors
Dylan Gerald-Everett Gomes, Joseph R. Benjamin, Benjamin J. Clemens, Ralph Lampman, Jason Dunham

Examining inter-regional and intra-seasonal differences in wintering waterfowl landscape associations among Pacific and Atlantic flyways Examining inter-regional and intra-seasonal differences in wintering waterfowl landscape associations among Pacific and Atlantic flyways

The Central Valley of California (CVC) and Mid-Atlantic (MA) in the U.S. are both critical sites for nationwide food security (California Poultry Federation 2016, Prosser et al. 2017), and many waterfowl species annually, especially during the winter, providing feeding and roosting locations for a variety of species. Mapping waterfowl distributions, using NEXRAD, may aid in the adaptive...
Authors
Matthew J. Hardy, Christopher K. Williams, Brian S. Ladman, Maurice E. Pitesky, Cory T. Overton, Michael L. Casazza, Elliott Matchett, Diann J. Prosser, Jeffrey J. Buler

A habitat suitability model for testing and refining the range of Zuni fleabane, a threatened plant species A habitat suitability model for testing and refining the range of Zuni fleabane, a threatened plant species

Land managers and conservation practitioners need practical tools to protect rare species in light of rapidly changing climate and land use patterns. Habitat suitability models are tools that can inform multiple-use land management decisions and target conservation actions. The narrow endemic Zuni fleabane, Erigeron rhizomatus, occurs on lands managed for multiple uses and was listed as...
Authors
Catherine S. Jarnevich, Sarah K. Carter, Andrea N. Chavez, Paige E. Handley, Brandon Hayes, Charles L. Hayes, Cameron Joseph Reimer, Samantha L. Reiss, Erika R. Rowe, Katie L. Sandbom, Sarah E. Whipple

Managing water for birds— A tool for the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge Managing water for birds— A tool for the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge

The “Water for Birds Tool” is an Excel-based model designed for resource managers to assess the spatial extent and types of bird habitats in the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge. The model quantifies the area of open water, partial water, and water depths on a monthly timescale during the irrigation season (April–July) from 2021–2024. This model combines previously published datasets and
Authors
Cassandra Smith

Ten quick tips to get you started with Bayesian statistics Ten quick tips to get you started with Bayesian statistics

Bayesian statistics is a framework in which our knowledge about unknown quantities of interest (especially parameters) is updated with the information in observed data, though it can also be viewed as simply another method to fit a statistical model. It has become popular in many branches of biology. For context, five of the ten most cited papers in Web of Science with keywords 'Bayesian
Authors
Olivier Gimenez, J. Andrew Royle, Marc Kery, Chloe Nater

Evidence for recruitment-mediated decline in an Eastern box turtle (Terrapene carolina carolina) population based on a 30-year capture-recapture data set from Maryland Evidence for recruitment-mediated decline in an Eastern box turtle (Terrapene carolina carolina) population based on a 30-year capture-recapture data set from Maryland

The Eastern box turtle (Terrapene carolina carolina) population at the Jug Bay Wetlands Sanctuary, Lothian, MD has been monitored continuously for 29 years (1995-2023). We used open population capture-recapture models (Jolly-Seber) to estimate annual population size, survival probability, and recruitment rate. The model allows for unknown sex of individuals and includes information on...
Authors
J. Andrew Royle, Mike Quinlan, Christopher Swarth
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