Publications
Listed here are publications, reports and articles by the Land Change Science Program in the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area.
Filter Total Items: 1145
Spatial extent of forested avalanche terrain impacted by wildfire across the Sawtooth National Forest Spatial extent of forested avalanche terrain impacted by wildfire across the Sawtooth National Forest
Forest structure is a major driver of mountain snowpacks and avalanche occurrence. Healthy forests can reduce the incidence of dangerous slab avalanches, slow avalanches when in motion, shorten their runout distances, and act as a safety buffer for backcountry users, infrastructure, and transportation corridors. Since 1984, wildfire area in the seasonal snow zone of the western United...
Authors
Zachary Miller, John Sykes, Megan Guinn, Benjamin VandenBos, Scott Savage, Erich Peitzsch
Big avalanches in a changing climate: Using tree-ring derived avalanche chronologies to examine avalanche frequency across multiple climate types Big avalanches in a changing climate: Using tree-ring derived avalanche chronologies to examine avalanche frequency across multiple climate types
Large-magnitude snow avalanches pose a hazard to humans and infrastructure worldwide. Analyzing the spatiotemporal behavior of avalanches and the contributory climate factors is important for understanding historical variability in climate-avalanche relationships as well as improving avalanche forecasting. This study uses established dendrochronological methods to develop long-term...
Authors
Erich Peitzsch, Gregory Pederson, Justin Martin, Eran Hood, Ethan Greene, Karl Birkeland, Kelly Elder, Gabriel Wolken, Nickolas Kichas, Daniel Stahle, John Harley
Using tree rings to compare Colorado’s 2019 avalanche cycle to previous large avalanche cycles Using tree rings to compare Colorado’s 2019 avalanche cycle to previous large avalanche cycles
Large magnitude avalanches (size ≥D3) impact settlements, transportation corridors, and public safety worldwide. In Colorado, United States, avalanches have killed more people than any other natural hazard since 1950. In March 2019, a historically large magnitude avalanche cycle occurred throughout the entire mountainous portion of Colorado resulting in more than 1000 reported avalanches...
Authors
Erich Peitzsch, Ethan Greene, Jason Konigsberg, Gregory Pederson, Justin Martin, Nickolas Kichas, Daniel Stahle, Adrien Favillier, Nicolas Eckert, Karl Birkeland, Kelly Elder
Independent age estimates resolve the controversy of ancient human footprints at White Sands Independent age estimates resolve the controversy of ancient human footprints at White Sands
Human footprints at White Sands National Park, New Mexico, USA, reportedly date to between ~23,000 and 21,000 years ago according to radiocarbon dating of seeds from the aquatic plant Ruppia cirrhosa. These ages remain controversial because of potential old carbon reservoir effects that could compromise their accuracy. We present new calibrated 14C ages of terrestrial pollen collected...
Authors
Jeffrey Pigati, Kathleen Springer, Jeffrey Honke, David Wahl, Marie Champagne, Susan Zimmerman, Harrison J. Gray, Vincent Santucci, Daniel Odess, David Bustos, Matthew Bennett
Vegetation change over 140 years in a sagebrush landscape of the Rio Grande del Norte National Monument, New Mexico, USA Vegetation change over 140 years in a sagebrush landscape of the Rio Grande del Norte National Monument, New Mexico, USA
Questions Big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) ecosystems across the western United States have experienced many changes in ecosystem dynamics and vegetation composition over the last century due to livestock grazing, non-native species, and changing climate and fire regimes. We conducted the first systematic investigation of historical vegetation composition and vegetation change in a...
Authors
Kara Fox, Ellis Margolis, Manuel Lopez, Ella Kasten, J.T. Stevens
Spatial distribution of elevation change monitoring in coastal wetlands across protected lands of the lower 48 United States Spatial distribution of elevation change monitoring in coastal wetlands across protected lands of the lower 48 United States
Introduction Tidally influenced coastal wetlands, both saline and fresh, appear where terrestrial and marine environments meet and are considered important ecosystems for identifying the impacts of climate change. Coastal wetlands provide valuable benefits to society and the environment in the form of flood protection, water-quality improvements, and shoreline erosion reduction, making...
Authors
Justine Neville, Glenn Guntenspergen
Early Pliocene (Zanclean) stratigraphic framework for PRISM5/PlioMIP3 time slices Early Pliocene (Zanclean) stratigraphic framework for PRISM5/PlioMIP3 time slices
Global reconstructions of Pliocene climate provide important insights into how the climate system operates under elevated temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels. These reconstructions have been used extensively in paleoclimate modeling experiments for comparison to simulated conditions, and as boundary conditions.Most previous work focused on the Late Pliocene interval known as the mid...
Authors
Harry J. Dowsett, Marci M. Robinson, Kevin Foley, Steve Hunter, Aisling Dolan, Julia Tindall
Inventory of glaciers and perennial snowfields of the conterminous USA Inventory of glaciers and perennial snowfields of the conterminous USA
This report summarizes an updated inventory of glaciers and perennial snowfields of the conterminous United States. The inventory is based on interpretation of mostly aerial imagery provided by the National Agricultural I magery Program, US Department of Agriculture, with some satellite imagery in places where aerial imagery was not suitable. The inventory includes all perennial snow and...
Authors
Andrew Fountain, Bryce Glenn, Christopher J. McNeil
Polar bear's range dynamics and survival in the Holocene Polar bear's range dynamics and survival in the Holocene
Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) is the apex predator of the Arctic, largely dependent on sea-ice. The expected disappearance of the ice cover of the Arctic seas by the mid 21st century is predicted to cause a dramatic decrease in the global range and population size of the species. To place this scenario against the backdrop of past distribution changes and their causes, we use a fossil...
Authors
Heikki Seppa, Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz, Beth Caissie, Marc Fauria
Upscaling wetland methane emissions from the FLUXNET-CH4 Eddy Covariance Network (UpCH4 v1.0): Model development, network assessment, and budget comparison Upscaling wetland methane emissions from the FLUXNET-CH4 Eddy Covariance Network (UpCH4 v1.0): Model development, network assessment, and budget comparison
Wetlands are responsible for 20%–31% of global methane (CH4) emissions and account for a large source of uncertainty in the global CH4 budget. Data-driven upscaling of CH4 fluxes from eddy covariance measurements can provide new and independent bottom-up estimates of wetland CH4 emissions. Here, we develop a six-predictor random forest upscaling model (UpCH4), trained on 119 site-years...
Authors
Gavin McNicol, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Zutao Ouyang, Sarah Knox, Zhang Zhen, Tuula Aalto, Sheel Bansal, Kuang-Yu Chang, Min Chen, Kyle Delwiche, Sarah Feron, Mathias Goeckede, Jinxun Liu, Avni Malhotra, Joe Melton, William Riley, Rodrigo Vargas, Kunxiaojia Yuan, Qing Yang, Qing Zhu, Pavel Alekseychik, Mika Aurela, David P. Billesbach, David Campbell, Jiquan Chen, Housen Chu, Ankur Desai, Eugenie Euskirchen, Jordan Goodrich, Timothy Griffis, Manuel Helbig, Takashi Hirano, Hiroki Iwata, Gerald Jurasinski, John King, Franziska Koebsch, Randall Kolka, Ken Krauss, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Mats Nilson, Asko Noormets, Walter Oechel, Matthias Peichl, Torsten Sachs, Ayaka Sakabe, Christopher Schulze, Oliver Sonnentag, Ryan C. Sullivan, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Masahito Ueyama, Timo Vesala, Eric Ward, Christian Wille, Guan Wong, Donatella Zona, Lisamarie Windham-Myers, Benjamin Poulter, Robert B. Jackson
Nonlinear patterns of surface elevation change in coastal wetlands: The value of generalized additive models for quantifying rates of change Nonlinear patterns of surface elevation change in coastal wetlands: The value of generalized additive models for quantifying rates of change
In the face of accelerating climate change and rising sea levels, quantifying surface elevation change dynamics in coastal wetlands can help to develop a more complete understanding of the implications of sea-level rise on coastal wetland stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach has been widely used to quantify and characterize surface elevation change...
Authors
Laura Feher, Michael Osland, Darren Johnson, James Grace, Glenn Guntenspergen, David R. Stewart, Carlos Coronado-Molina, Fred Sklar
Comparing wetland elevation change using a surface elevation table, digital level, and total station Comparing wetland elevation change using a surface elevation table, digital level, and total station
The surface elevation table (SET) approach and two survey instruments, a digital level (DL) and a total station (TS), were used to evaluate elevation change at a 1-ha, micro-tidal, back-barrier salt marsh at Assateague Island National Seashore (Berlin, MD, USA) from 2016 to 2022. SET data were collected at 3 sampling stations along the perimeter of the plot, 36 pins per station, and the...
Authors
James Lynch, Neil Winn, Katya Kovalenko, Glenn Guntenspergen