Publications
Listed here are publications, reports and articles by the Land Change Science Program in the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area.
Filter Total Items: 1145
Multi-decadal vegetation transformations of a New Mexico ponderosa pine landscape after severe fires and aerial seeding Multi-decadal vegetation transformations of a New Mexico ponderosa pine landscape after severe fires and aerial seeding
Wildfires and climate change are having transformative effects on vegetation composition and structure, and post-fire management may have long-lasting impacts on ecosystem reorganization. Post-fire aerial seeding treatments are commonly used to reduce runoff and soil erosion, but little is known about how seeding treatments affect native vegetation recovery over long periods of time...
Authors
Andreas Paul Wion, Jens T. Stevens, Kay Beeley, Rebecca Oertel, Ellis Margolis, Craig D. Allen
Rising seas could cross thresholds for initiating coastal wetland drowning within decades across much of the United States Rising seas could cross thresholds for initiating coastal wetland drowning within decades across much of the United States
Accelerated sea-level rise is an existential threat to coastal wetlands, but the timing and extent of wetland drowning are debated. Recent data syntheses have clarified future relative sea-level rise exposure and sensitivity thresholds for drowning. Here, we integrate these advances to estimate when and where rising sea levels could cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across...
Authors
Michael Osland, Bogdan Chivoiu, James Grace, Nicholas Enwright, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Kevin Buffington, Karen M. Thorne, Joel A. Carr, William V. Sweet, Brady Couvillion
Drought as an emergent driver of ecological transformation in the twenty-first century Drought as an emergent driver of ecological transformation in the twenty-first century
Under climate change, ecosystems are experiencing novel drought regimes, often in combination with stressors that reduce resilience and amplify drought’s impacts. Consequently, drought appears increasingly likely to push systems beyond important physiological and ecological thresholds, resulting in substantial changes in ecosystem characteristics persisting long after drought ends (i.e
Authors
Wynne Emily Moss, Shelley Crausbay, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jay Wason, Clay Trauernicht, Camille S. Stevens-Rumann, Anna Sala, Caitlin M. Rottler, Gregory T. Pederson, Brian W. Miller, Dawn Magness, Jeremy Littell, Lee Frelich, Abby G. Frazier, Kimberly R. Davis, Jonathan Coop, Jennifer M. Cartwright, Robert K Booth
Four decades of data indicate that planted mangroves stored up to 75% of the carbon stocks found in intact mature stands Four decades of data indicate that planted mangroves stored up to 75% of the carbon stocks found in intact mature stands
Mangroves’ ability to store carbon (C) has long been recognized, but little is known about whether planted mangroves can store C as efficiently as naturally established (i.e., intact) stands and in which time frame. Through Bayesian logistic models compiled from 40 years of data and built from 684 planted mangrove stands worldwide, we found that biomass C stock culminated at 71 to 73% to...
Authors
Carine F. Bourgeois, Richard A. MacKenzie, Sahadev Sharma, Rupesh K. Bhomia, Nels G. Johnson, Andre S. Rovai, Thomas A. Worthington, Ken Krauss, Kangkuso Analuddin, Jacob J. Bukoski, Jose Alan Castillo, Angie Elwin, Leah Glass, Tim C. Jennerjahn, Mwita M. Mangora, Cyril Marchand, Michael Osland, Ismael A. Ratefinjanahary, Raghab Ray, Severino G. Salmo, Sigit D. Sasmito, Rempei Suwa, Pham Hong Tinh, Carl C. Trettin
Accelerating glacier volume loss on Juneau Icefield driven by hypsometry and melt-accelerating feedbacks Accelerating glacier volume loss on Juneau Icefield driven by hypsometry and melt-accelerating feedbacks
Globally, glaciers and icefields contribute significantly to sea level rise. Here we show that ice loss from Juneau Icefield, a plateau icefield in Alaska, accelerated after 2005 AD. Rates of area shrinkage were 5 times faster from 2015–2019 than from 1979–1990. Glacier volume loss remained fairly consistent (0.65–1.01 km3 a−1) from 1770–1979 AD, rising to 3.08–3.72 km3 a−1 from 1979...
Authors
Bethan Davies, Robert McNabb, Jacob Bendle, Jonathan Carrivick, Jeremy Ely, Tom Holt, Bradley Markle, Christopher J. McNeil, Lindsey Nicholson, Mauri Pelto
Modeling the mid-Piacenzian warm climate using the water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM1.2-ITPCAS) Modeling the mid-Piacenzian warm climate using the water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM1.2-ITPCAS)
The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (MPWP, ~ 3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent example of a persistently warmer climate in equilibrium with atmospheric CO2 concentrations similar to today. Towards studying patterns and dynamics of a warming climate the MPWP is often compared to today. Following the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) protocol we prepare a water isotope...
Authors
Yong Sun, Baohuang Su, Harry J. Dowsett, Haibin Wu, Jun Hu, Christian Stepanek, Zhongyu Xiong, Xiayu Yuan, Gilles Ramstein
Thermal and hydrological limitations on modeling carbon dynamics at wetland sites of discontinuous and continuous permafrost extent Thermal and hydrological limitations on modeling carbon dynamics at wetland sites of discontinuous and continuous permafrost extent
Accurate representation of cryohydrological processes is fundamental for biosphere models, particularly at high-latitudes, given their influence on carbon and permafrost dynamics in carbon-rich peatlands and wetlands. This study analyzes site-level simulations in moist and wet drainage conditions in continuous or discontinuous permafrost regions, using a terrestrial ecosystem model DVM...
Authors
Benjamin C. Maglio, Ruth Rutter, Tobey Carman, Colin W. Edgar, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Hélène Genet, Andrew Mullen, Valeria Briones, Elchin Jafarov, Kristen L. Manies
Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at De Soto National Memorial, Florida Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at De Soto National Memorial, Florida
Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a...
Authors
Hana R. Thurman, Nicholas M. Enwright, Michael J. Osland, Davina L. Passeri, Richard H. Day, Bethanie M. Simons
Climate driven trends in historical extreme low streamflows on four continents Climate driven trends in historical extreme low streamflows on four continents
Understanding temporal trends in low streamflows is important for water management and ecosystems. This work focuses on trends in the occurrence rate of extreme low-flow events (5- to 100-year return periods) for pooled groups of stations. We use data from 1,184 minimally altered catchments in Europe, North and South America, and Australia to discern historical climate-driven trends in...
Authors
Glenn A. Hodgkins, Benjamin Renard, Paul H. Whitfield, Gregor Laaha, Kerstin Stahl, Jamie Hannaford, Donald H. Burn, Seth Westra, Anne K. Fleig, Walsczon Terllizzie Araujo Lopes, Conor Murphy, Luis Mediero, Martin Hanel
Decomposition of physical processes controlling EASM precipitation changes during the mid-Piacenzian: New insights into data–model integration Decomposition of physical processes controlling EASM precipitation changes during the mid-Piacenzian: New insights into data–model integration
The mid-Piacenzian warm period (MPWP, ~3.264–3.025 Ma) has gained widespread interest due to its partial analogy with future climate. However, quantitative data–model comparison of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) precipitation during the MPWP is relatively rare, especially due to problems in decoding the imprint of physical processes to climate signals in the records. In this study...
Authors
Yong Sun, Haibin Wu, Lixin Chen, Christian Stepanek, Yan Zhao, Ning Tan, Baohuang Su, Xiayu Yuan, Wenchao Zhang, Bo Liu, Stephen Hunter, Alan M Haywood, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Camille Contoux, Daniel J. Lunt, Aisling M Dolan, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Harry J. Dowsett, Julia C. Tindall, Michiel Baatsen, W. Richard Peltier, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Ulrich Salzmann, Wing-Le Chan, Zhongshi Zhang, Charles J. R. Williams, Gilles Ramstein
Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve, Florida Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve, Florida
Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a...
Authors
Hana R. Thurman, Nicholas M. Enwright, Michael J. Osland, Davina L. Passeri, Richard H. Day, Bethanie M. Simons
Microtopographic variation as a potential early indicator of ecosystem state change and vulnerability in salt marshes Microtopographic variation as a potential early indicator of ecosystem state change and vulnerability in salt marshes
As global climate change alters the magnitude and rates of environmental stressors, predicting the extent of ecosystem degradation driven by these rapidly changing conditions becomes increasingly urgent. At the landscape scale, disturbances and stressors can increase spatial variability and heterogeneity — indicators that can serve as potential early warnings of declining ecosystem...
Authors
Alexander J. Smith, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Joel A. Carr, David C Walters, Matthew Kirwan