Publications
Listed here are publications, reports and articles by the Land Change Science Program in the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area.
Filter Total Items: 1145
Snowpack signals in North American tree rings Snowpack signals in North American tree rings
Climate change has contributed to recent declines in mountain snowpack and earlier runoff, which in turn has intensified hydrological droughts in western North America. Climate model projections suggest that continued and severe snowpack reductions are expected over the 21st century, with profound consequences for ecosystems and human welfare. Yet the current understanding of trends and
Authors
Bethany Coulthard, Kevin Anchukaitis, Gregory Pederson, Edward Cook, Jeremy Littell, Dan Smith
Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment
The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic...
Authors
Sara Sayedi, B.F. Thornton, Benjamin Abbott, Jennifer Frederick, Jorien Vonk, Paul Overduin, Christina Schadel, E.A.G. Schuur, A. Bourbonnais, N. Demidova, Anatoly Gavrilov, Shengping He, Gustaf Gustaf Hugelius, Martin Jakobsson, Miriam Jones, DoongJoo Joung, Gleb Kraev, Robie Macdonald, A. McGuire, Cuicui Mu, M. O’Regan, Kathryn Schreiner, Christian Stranne, Elena Pizhankova, A. Vasiliev, S. Westermann, Jay Zarnetske, Tingjun Zhang, M Ghandehari, Sarah Baeumler, Brian Brown, Rebecca Frei
Upper Colorado River Basin 20th century droughts under 21st century warming: Plausible scenarios for the future Upper Colorado River Basin 20th century droughts under 21st century warming: Plausible scenarios for the future
This study builds on a collaboration with a water resource management community of practice in the Upper Colorado River Basin to develop scenarios of future drought and assess impacts on water supply reliability. Water managers are concerned with the impacts of warming on water year streamflow, but uncertainties in projections of climate make the application of these projections to...
Authors
Connie Woodhouse, Rebecca Smith, Stephanie A. McAfee, Gregory Pederson, Gregory McCabe, W. Miller, Adam Csank
Effects of postfire climate and seed availability on postfire conifer regeneration Effects of postfire climate and seed availability on postfire conifer regeneration
Large, severe fires are becoming more frequent in many forest types across the western United States and have resulted in tree mortality across tens of thousands of hectares. Conifer regeneration in these areas is limited because seeds must travel long distances to reach the interior of large burned patches and establishment is jeopardized by increasingly hot and dry conditions. To...
Authors
Joseph Stewart, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Derek J N Young, Kristen Shive, Haiganoush Preisler, Adrian Das, Nathan Stephenson, Jon Keeley, Hugh Safford, Micah Wright, Kevin Welch, James Thorne
High elevation ice patch documents Holocene climate variability in the northern Rocky Mountains High elevation ice patch documents Holocene climate variability in the northern Rocky Mountains
Paleoclimate records from ice cores generally are considered to be the most direct indicators of environmental change, but are rare from mid-latitude, continental regions such as the western United States. High-elevation ice patches are known to be important archaeological archives in alpine regions and potentially could provide records important for Earth System Model evaluation and to...
Authors
Nathan Chellman, Gregory Pederson, Craig Lee, Dave McWethy, Kathryn Pusman, Jeffery Stone, Sabrina R. Brown, Joseph McConnell
Tidal wetland resilience to increased rates of sea level rise in the Chesapeake Bay: Introduction to the special feature Tidal wetland resilience to increased rates of sea level rise in the Chesapeake Bay: Introduction to the special feature
The papers in this Special Feature are the result of the first Marsh Resilience Summit in the Chesapeake Bay region, which occurred in February 2019. The Chesapeake Bay region has one of the highest rates of relative sea level rise in the U.S., jeopardizing over 1000 km2 of tidal wetlands along with other coastal lands. The goal of the Summit and this collection of articles is to analyze...
Authors
Taryn Sudol, Gregory Noe, Denise Reed
Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink
The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an...
Authors
Julie Loisel, A.V. Gallego-Sala, M.J. Amesbury, G. Magnan, G. Anshari, D. W. Beilman, J. Blewett, J. Benevides, P. Camill, D. J. Charman, S. Chawchai, A. Hedgpeth, T. Kleinen, A. Korhola, D. Large, J. Muller, C. A. Mansilla, S. van Bellen, J. West, Z. Yu, J. L. Bubier, M. Garneau, T. Moore, A. Sannel, M. Väliranta, S. Page, M. Bechtold, V. Brovkin, L. Cole, J. P. Chanton, T. Christensen, M. Davies, F. De Vleeschouwer, S.A. Finkelstein, S. Frolking, M. Galka, L. Gandois, N. Girkin, .L.I. Harris, A. Heinemeyer, A.M. Hoyt, Miriam Jones, F. Joos, S. Juutinen, K. Kaiser, M. Lamentowicz, T. Larmola, M. Leifeld, A. Lohila, A.M. Milner, Kari Minkkinen, P. Moss, B.D.A. Naafs, J. Nichols, J. O'Donnell, R. Payne, M. Philben, S. Pilo, A. Quillet, A.S. Ratnayake, T.P. Roland, S. Sjogersten, O. Sonnentag, G.T. Swindles, W. Swinnen, J. Talbott, C. C. Treat, A.C. Valach, J. Wu
Soils and paleosols Soils and paleosols
Soils are naturally occurring bodies that form in the interface between the geosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. They are the medium for much of the Earth's plant and animal growth. Soil morphology and how it evolves are functions of the soil-forming factors of climate, organisms, relief, parent material, and time. The expression of soil morphology takes the form of layers...
Authors
Daniel Muhs
Forest restoration and fuels reduction: Convergent or divergent? Forest restoration and fuels reduction: Convergent or divergent?
For over 20 years, forest fuel reduction has been the dominant management action in western US forests. These same actions have also been associated with the restoration of highly altered frequent-fire forests. Perhaps the vital element in the compatibility of these treatments is that both need to incorporate the salient characteristics that frequent fire produced—variability in...
Authors
Scott Stephens, Mike Battaglia, Derek J. Churchill, Brandon Collins, Michelle Coppoletta, Chad Hoffman, Jamie Lydersen, Malcolm North, Russell Parsons, Scott Ritter, Jens Stevens
Climate and Ecological Disturbance Analysis of Engelmann spruce and Douglas fir in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Climate and Ecological Disturbance Analysis of Engelmann spruce and Douglas fir in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
The effects of anthropogenic climate change are apparent in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), USA, with forest die-off, insect outbreaks, and wildfires impacting forest ecosystems. A long-term perspective would enable assessment of the historical range of variability in forest ecosystems and better determination of recent forest dynamics and historical thresholds. The objectives...
Authors
Brittany Rinaldi, R. Maxwell, Thomas Callahan, Rebecca Brice, Karen Heeter, Grant Harley
Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations
Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2)...
Authors
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim Nisancioglu, Alan Haywood, Julia Tindall, Harry Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohman, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E Sohl, Mark Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel Baatsen, Anna von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Peltier, A. Abe-Ouchi, W-L Chan, Youichi Kamae, Chris Brierley
A comparison of plant communities in restored, old field, and remnant coastal prairies A comparison of plant communities in restored, old field, and remnant coastal prairies
Temperate grasslands are experiencing worldwide declines due to habitat conversion. Grassland restoration efforts are employed to compensate for these losses. However, there is a need to better understand the ecological effects of grassland restoration and management practices. We investigated the effects of three different grassland management regimes on plant communities of coastal...
Authors
Laura Feher, Larry Allain, Michael Osland, Elisabeth Pigott, Christopher Reid, Nicholas Latiolais