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The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Societal Consequences

The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical moment magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The fault runs along the east side of California’s San Francisco Bay and is among the most active and dangerous in the United States, passing through a densely urbanized and interconnected region. A scientifically realistic scen
Anne M. Wein, Joseph L. Jones, Laurie A. Johnson, Cynthia Kroll, Jennifer A. Strauss, David Witkowski, Dale A. Cox

The HayWired earthquake scenario—Earthquake hazards

The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replac

Get your science used—Six guidelines to improve your products

Introduction Natural scientists, like many other experts, face challenges when communicating to people outside their fields of expertise. This is especially true when they try to communicate to those whose background, knowledge, and experience are far distant from that field of expertise. At a recent workshop, experts in risk communication offered insights into the communication challenges of prob
Suzanne C. Perry, Michael L. Blanpied, Erin R. Burkett, Nnenia M. Campbell, Anders Carlson, Dale A. Cox, Carolyn L. Driedger, David P. Eisenman, Katherine T. Fox-Glassman, Sherry Hoffman, Susanna M. Hoffman, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Lucile M. Jones, Nicolas Luco, Sabine M. Marx, Sean M. McGowan, Dennis S. Mileti, Morgan P. Moschetti, David Ozman, Elizabeth Pastor, Mark D. Petersen, Keith A. Porter, David W. Ramsey, Liesel A. Ritchie, Jessica K. Fitzpatrick, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Timothy L. Sellnow, Wendy L. Vaughon, David J. Wald, Lisa A. Wald, Anne Wein, Christina Zarcadoolas

Regional analysis of social characteristics for evacuation resource planning: ARkStorm scenario

Local planning is insufficient for regional catastrophes; regional exercises are needed to test emergency plans and decision-making structures. The ARkStorm scenario would trigger a mass evacuation that would be complicated by the social characteristics of populations [e.g., vehicle ownership, age, poverty, English language limitation (ELL), and shelter needs]. Land cover data and dasymetric mappi
Anne Wein, Jamie L. Ratliff, Allan Baez, Rachel Sleeter

Anticipating environmental and environmental-health implications of extreme storms: ARkStorm scenario

The ARkStorm Scenario predicts that a prolonged winter storm event across California would cause extreme precipitation, flooding, winds, physical damages, and economic impacts. This study uses a literature review and geographic information system-based analysis of national and state databases to infer how and where ARkStorm could cause environmental damages, release contamination from diverse natu
Geoffrey S. Plumlee, Charles N. Alpers, Suzette A. Morman, Carma A. San Juan

Agricultural damages and losses from ARkStorm scenario flooding in California

Scientists designed the ARkStorm scenario to challenge the preparedness of California communities for widespread flooding with a historical precedence and increased likelihood under climate change. California is an important provider of vegetables, fruits, nuts, and other agricultural products to the nation. This study analyzes the agricultural damages and losses pertaining to annual crops, perenn
Anne Wein, David Mitchell, Jeff Peters, John Rowden, Johnny Tran, Alessandra Corsi, Laura B. Dinitz

SAFRR tsunami scenario: Impacts on California ecosystems, species, marine natural resources, and fisheries

We evaluate the effects of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario on California’s ecosystems, species, natural resources, and fisheries. We discuss mitigation and preparedness approaches that can be useful in Tsunami planning. The chapter provides an introduction to the role of ecosystems and natural resources in tsunami events (Section 1). A separate section focuses on specific impacts of the SAFRR Tsunami S
Deborah Brosnan, Anne Wein, Rick Wilson

The search for geologic evidence of distant-source tsunamis using new field data in California

A statewide assessment for geological evidence of tsunamis, primarily from distant-source events, found tsunami deposits at several locations, though evidence was absent at most locations evaluated. Several historical distant-source tsunamis, including the 1946 Aleutian, 1960 Chile, and 1964 Alaska events, caused inundation along portions of the northern and central California coast. Recent numeri
Rick Wilson, Eileen Hemphill-Haley, Bruce Jaffe, Bruce Richmond, Robert Peters, Nick Graehl, Harvey Kelsey, Robert Leeper, Steve Watt, Mary McGann, Don F. Hoirup, Catherine Chagué-Goff, James Goff, Dylan Caldwell, Casey Loofbourrow

ARkStorm@Tahoe: Stakeholder perspectives on vulnerabilities and preparedness for an extreme storm event in the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno, and Carson City region

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are strongly linked to extreme winter precipitation events in the Western U.S., accounting for 80 percent of extreme floods in the Sierra Nevada and surrounding lowlands. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme storm scenario for California to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to better explore and mitigate poten
Christine M. Albano, Dale A. Cox, Michael D. Dettinger, Kevin Shaller, Toby L. Welborn, Maureen McCarthy

Population vulnerability and evacuation challenges in California for the SAFRR tsunami scenario

The SAFRR tsunami scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical yet plausible tsunami associated with a magnitude 9.1 megathrust earthquake east of the Alaska Peninsula. This report summarizes community variations in population vulnerability and potential evacuation challenges to the tsunami. The most significant public-health concern for California coastal communities during a distant-source tsun
Nathan Wood, Jamie Ratliff, Jeff Peters, Kimberley Shoaf

Public-policy issues associated with the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario simulates a tsunami generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake that occurs offshore of the Alaska Peninsula (Kirby and others, 2013). In addition to the work performed by the authors on public-policy issues associated with the SAFRR tsunami scenario, this section of the scenario also reflects the policy discussions of th
Laurie Johnson, Chuck Real