Weather and Climate

Climate forecasts provide a unique tool to researchers and wildlife managers, allowing for a look into potential future climate conditions. Climate models provide multiple scenarios that assume different mitigation polices implemented by governments. By using these data in a statistical model to estimate soil-climate conditions, we can investigate the connection between future climate and...

We are investigating ecosystem transitions and thresholds in the sagebrush steppe, studying factors influencing the shift from native to invaded plant communities after disturbances like fire. Our research tests region-wide resistance and resilience models, focusing on real-world recovery patterns, pre-fire conditions, plant succession, and land management treatments.

We are using existing datasets that span broad spatial and temporal extents to model the efficacy of invasive annual grass treatments across the sagebrush biome and the influence of environmental factors on their success. The models we develop will be used to generate maps of predicted treatment efficacy across the biome, which will be integrated into the Land Treatment Exploration Tool for land...

USGS researchers are conducting a comprehensive study of wild horse and livestock records across the greater sage-grouse range to investigate impacts on vegetation and wildlife (specifically, sage-grouse and songbirds). Researchers will use these results to evaluate Appropriate Management Levels for wild horse and burros, and projections of vegetation productivity under changing conditions.

Researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey are reviewing, summarizing, and analyzing what is currently known about changes happening in pinyon-juniper ecosystems in the western U.S. in response to tree removal treatments. Although tree removal can help restore sagebrush ecosystems, these treatments also impact wildlife, wildfire fuels, and invasive plants. This project will help identify key...

Researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey are developing a strategic framework for assessing and monitoring the impacts of fuel breaks in sagebrush ecosystems of the western U.S. Fuel breaks are increasingly being used to reduce the threat of wildfire, but more information on their efficacy and impacts on wildlife habitat and exotic annual grass invasion is needed.

Management partners have identified a major need to understand the short and long-term consequences of altered wildfire patterns, vegetation change, climate, and management actions for the carbon cycle. This project aims to quantify carbon storage and greenhouse gas emissions in sagebrush rangelands. Researchers will link findings to the Sagebrush Conservation Design Framework and provide...

The Southeastern U.S. experiences recurring hydrologic droughts, which can reduce water availability for human consumption and ecosystem services, leading to plant stress and reduced plant growth. This project examines relationships between drought and the water cycle in the Southeast with data from the Panola Mountain Research Watershed (PMRW) near Atlanta, Georgia and other Southeastern sites...

USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS), in conjunction with the US Forest Service Pacific Southwest (PSW) Region, has developed several new products for understanding and forecasting the probability of large wildland fires on all land in the conterminous U.S.

How will increased drought affect forest fire severity? WERC’s Dr. Phil van Mantgem is testing the idea increased drought stress may affect forest fire severity independent of fire intensity. Drought stress prior to fire can affect tree health, potentially resulting in a higher sensitivity to fire-induced damage. Thus, with drought there may be ongoing increases in fire severity (the number of...

Large wildfires have raged across the western Americas in the past decade including the Las Conchas, New Mexico fire that burned 44,000 acres in a single day in 2011 (Orem and Pelletier, 2015, Geomorphology 232: 224-238, and references therein), the 2016 Fort McMurray, Alberta fire that required evacuating an entire city, and the 2015 Alaskan fire season that burned more than 5 million acres...