Mathematical Modeling

Ongoing global outbreaks demonstrate the capacity of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) to impact poultry, wild birds, and even human health. USGS research is advancing the understanding of the spatial and temporal interface between wild and domestic bird populations from which these viruses emerge to aid biosecurity planning and outbreak response.

The USGS Eastern Ecological Science Center (EESC) is rooted in a proud tradition of service to the nation—advancing science that informs the conservation and management of fish, wildlife, and habitats across the eastern United States and beyond. Our mission is clear: deliver reliable, partner-driven science that supports natural resource decisions today, while ensuring these resources remain...

Decision analysis is widely used in business applications to improve cost saving and increase efficiency under uncertainty. Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center (EESC) include world-renowned experts who use data, mathematics, statistics, and computer science to help frame and solve decision problems to support U.S. national security, public health, wildlife...

USGS researchers are collaborating with partners around the globe to leverage new and existing telemetry data to answer broad scale questions about factors influencing avian movement and migration.

USGS researchers seek to understand the factors influencing the spread and persistence of avian influenza viruses on the landscape. This research also addresses how novel strains of highly pathogenic avian influenza are impacting a larger number and diversity of host species, including waterfowl, shorebirds, raptors and other birds.

USGS researchers are at the forefront of building and maintaining datasets that represent the spatial and temporal patterns in avian influenza virus prevalence in wild birds, which is critical information used to estimate transmission risk to domestic poultry.

USGS is creating spatially and temporally explicit inputs to improve avian influenza transmission risk modeling. This project places special emphasis on wild bird distribution and abundance models as well as avian influenza prevalence models.

USGS researchers are developing novel methods to improve our understanding of waterfowl distributions and abundance across the United States to inform a variety of ongoing disease studies. Understanding the distribution of wild waterfowl is a critical component to assessing avian influenza transmission risks across the landscape.

USGS is helping with the design of a population survey and developing mathematical models to assess potential activities to manage the population of invasive blue catfish ( Ictalurus furcatus) in the Chesapeake Bay. This research will help managers determine the cost and feasibility of approaches to control this invasive species.

USGS is conducting research to better understand biology, behavior, and survival of juvenile fishes that travel between fresh and saltwater to complete their lifecycles. Migratory fishes as such as herring and shad are vital components in riverine and coastal ecosystems, transporting food and nutrients between fresh rivers and the ocean. They are also an important forage fish for predators in...

USGS is developing predictive models to inform sustainable harvest of horseshoe crabs ( Limulus polyphemus) in Delaware Bay to help managers make decisions to support needs of people and shorebirds including rufa red knot ( Calidris canutus rufa).

The Eastern Ecological Science Center is working closely with federal, state, and tribal partners to help inform decisions that reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from humans to North American wildlife, including bats.