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Mathematical Modeling

Filter Total Items: 19

Red Knot Migration and Population Ecology

Eastern Ecological Science Center biologists are studying migration and population ecology of the rufa red knot, a bird species that is dependent on horseshoe crab eggs to complete its trans-hemispheric migration. The birds' spring migration is timed with spawning of horseshoe crabs because the eggs are the perfect food for a migrating red knot.
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Red Knot Migration and Population Ecology

Eastern Ecological Science Center biologists are studying migration and population ecology of the rufa red knot, a bird species that is dependent on horseshoe crab eggs to complete its trans-hemispheric migration. The birds' spring migration is timed with spawning of horseshoe crabs because the eggs are the perfect food for a migrating red knot.
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Northeast Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative

The USGS Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is designed to determine where populations of amphibians are present, to monitor specific apex populations, and to investigate potential causes of amphibian declines, diseases, and malformations. The Northeast Region of ARMI encompasses thirteen states (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New...
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Northeast Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative

The USGS Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is designed to determine where populations of amphibians are present, to monitor specific apex populations, and to investigate potential causes of amphibian declines, diseases, and malformations. The Northeast Region of ARMI encompasses thirteen states (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New...
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Decision Science Support for SARS-CoV-2 Risk to North American Bats

The Eastern Ecological Science Center is working closely with federal, state, and tribal partners to help inform decisions that reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from humans to North American wildlife, including bats.
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Decision Science Support for SARS-CoV-2 Risk to North American Bats

The Eastern Ecological Science Center is working closely with federal, state, and tribal partners to help inform decisions that reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from humans to North American wildlife, including bats.
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The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise: Understanding how macroscale drivers influence local processes and feedbacks

The purpose of this work is to advance our understanding of how coastal wetland responses to SLR within the conterminous United States are likely to vary as a function of local, regional, and macroscale drivers, including climate. Based on our interactions with managers and decision makers, as well as our knowledge of the current state of the science, we propose to (a) conduct a national synoptic...
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The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise: Understanding how macroscale drivers influence local processes and feedbacks

The purpose of this work is to advance our understanding of how coastal wetland responses to SLR within the conterminous United States are likely to vary as a function of local, regional, and macroscale drivers, including climate. Based on our interactions with managers and decision makers, as well as our knowledge of the current state of the science, we propose to (a) conduct a national synoptic...
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Seagrass Vulnerability to Environmental Conditions Under Changing Temperature Regimes

Seagrasses are among the most productive ecosystems on the planet. Water quality degradation and direct human disturbance have caused loss of nearly a third of the seagrass habitat worldwide. These threats are exacerbated by stresses associated with a changing global climate. Predicting how seagrass distribution, abundance, and species composition will change in response to increased temperature...
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Seagrass Vulnerability to Environmental Conditions Under Changing Temperature Regimes

Seagrasses are among the most productive ecosystems on the planet. Water quality degradation and direct human disturbance have caused loss of nearly a third of the seagrass habitat worldwide. These threats are exacerbated by stresses associated with a changing global climate. Predicting how seagrass distribution, abundance, and species composition will change in response to increased temperature...
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Spatio-Temporal Statistical Models for Forecasting Climate Change Effects on Bird Distribution

Ecological indicators of climate change are needed to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and forecast the consequences of climate change. We seek to develop robust bird-based, climate-change indicators using North American Breeding Bird Survey data.
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Spatio-Temporal Statistical Models for Forecasting Climate Change Effects on Bird Distribution

Ecological indicators of climate change are needed to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and forecast the consequences of climate change. We seek to develop robust bird-based, climate-change indicators using North American Breeding Bird Survey data.
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Environmental Management of Vector-borne Diseases

Effective management programs for vector-borne pathogens, such as West Nile Virus and the Lyme disease spirochete, are necessary to protect public health. However, some vector control methods, such as landscape manipulations and pesticide applications, can also adversely affect nontarget species and environmentally sensitive natural systems. Efficient targeting and integration of vector control...
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Environmental Management of Vector-borne Diseases

Effective management programs for vector-borne pathogens, such as West Nile Virus and the Lyme disease spirochete, are necessary to protect public health. However, some vector control methods, such as landscape manipulations and pesticide applications, can also adversely affect nontarget species and environmentally sensitive natural systems. Efficient targeting and integration of vector control...
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Assessing Amphibian Disease Risk in the Northeast

Disease in amphibian populations can have a range of effects, from devastating declines following introduction of a novel pathogen to recurring breakout events on a landscape. Elucidating mechanisms underlying the effects of diseases on amphibian populations is crucial to help managers make appropriate decisions to achieve management goals for amphibians.
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Assessing Amphibian Disease Risk in the Northeast

Disease in amphibian populations can have a range of effects, from devastating declines following introduction of a novel pathogen to recurring breakout events on a landscape. Elucidating mechanisms underlying the effects of diseases on amphibian populations is crucial to help managers make appropriate decisions to achieve management goals for amphibians.
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Conservation of Rare Vegetation Communities of the Atlantic Coastal Barrier Islands

The Challenge: A synthesis of the role of disturbance, in all of its manifestations, on the establishment and development of the American Holly forest is required to guide future conservation measures. Because many forest fragments have already endured >30 years of chronic deer herbivory, a legitimate question of how much more impact by deer can be tolerated and still conserve the essential type...
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Conservation of Rare Vegetation Communities of the Atlantic Coastal Barrier Islands

The Challenge: A synthesis of the role of disturbance, in all of its manifestations, on the establishment and development of the American Holly forest is required to guide future conservation measures. Because many forest fragments have already endured >30 years of chronic deer herbivory, a legitimate question of how much more impact by deer can be tolerated and still conserve the essential type...
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Post-Hurricane Sandy Vegetation Recovery in the Presence of a Hyper-abundant Deer Population

The Challenge: The primary dune along barrier island beaches protects leeward vegetation from tidal fluctuation, salt spray and storm surge. However, storm surges like those experienced during Hurricane Sandy can obliterate the primary dune, transporting sand inland and burying existing vegetation. The dune rebuilds naturally as recovering vegetation traps wind-blown and waterborne sand. The rate...
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Post-Hurricane Sandy Vegetation Recovery in the Presence of a Hyper-abundant Deer Population

The Challenge: The primary dune along barrier island beaches protects leeward vegetation from tidal fluctuation, salt spray and storm surge. However, storm surges like those experienced during Hurricane Sandy can obliterate the primary dune, transporting sand inland and burying existing vegetation. The dune rebuilds naturally as recovering vegetation traps wind-blown and waterborne sand. The rate...
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Estimation of Density and Abundance of Biological Populations on National Parks and Wildlife Refuges Through Distance Sampling

The Challenge: Assessing the status and trends of populations of biological organisms is an important management goal and a recurrent theme in USGS research. Often, the most basic question of “how many are there?” remains elusive, thus making management decisions more difficult. This study continues a long-term commitment of technical support for the use of distance sampling for wildlife...
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Estimation of Density and Abundance of Biological Populations on National Parks and Wildlife Refuges Through Distance Sampling

The Challenge: Assessing the status and trends of populations of biological organisms is an important management goal and a recurrent theme in USGS research. Often, the most basic question of “how many are there?” remains elusive, thus making management decisions more difficult. This study continues a long-term commitment of technical support for the use of distance sampling for wildlife...
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Hierarchical Models of Animal Abundance and Occurrence

The Challenge: Research goals of this project are to develop models, statistical methods, sampling strategies and tools for inference about animal population status from survey data. Survey data are always subject to a number of observation processes that induce bias and error. In particular, inferences are based on spatial sampling – we can only ever sample a subset of locations where species...
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Hierarchical Models of Animal Abundance and Occurrence

The Challenge: Research goals of this project are to develop models, statistical methods, sampling strategies and tools for inference about animal population status from survey data. Survey data are always subject to a number of observation processes that induce bias and error. In particular, inferences are based on spatial sampling – we can only ever sample a subset of locations where species...
Learn More