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Land Cover Projections Active

By Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center May 16, 2018
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Scientists at EROS look at local and global drivers of land-use change to project how different scenarios will impact and change landscapes. Using the FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) modeling framework provides spatially explicit projections of future land-use and land-cover change. 

An animated gif of land cover change in the Washington, D.C. area under a high-growth scenario
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.
An animation of land cover change in the Washington, D.C. area under a high-growth scenario, as projected by researchers at the USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center. The model was built based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2's scenario. The A2 scenario emphasizes economic growth and fragmented, heterogeneous socioeconomic conditions. The A2 scenario has extremely high population growth, with global population reaching 15 billion by 2100. 

USGS scientists have a long tradition of providing high-quality, consistent, and relevant land-cover data for the United States, using our archive of current and historical remote sensing data. The National Land Cover Database (NLCD)provides consistent, spatially explicit, periodically updated maps of land cover for the United States, with mapped dates for 1992, 2001, 2006, and 2011 (in progress). The USGS Land Cover Trends project has mapped and analyzed historical land-cover change from 1973 to 2000 using the Landsat satellite image archive. The Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Project (LANDFIRE) provides multiple landscape attributes to support land managers and modelers. Together, these data provide a suite of data and information on current and recent historical land-cover change for the United States.

Scientists at EROS are using their experience in mapping land cover and their knowledge of land-cover change processes to temporally extend these databases beyond the dates of available remote sensing data. Using the EROS FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-Cover (FORE-SCE) model, EROS scientists are modeling land-cover change both into the future, using scenario-based modeling approaches, and for "backcasting" land cover for historical periods. In combination with USGS remote sensing based land-cover data, EROS' modeling efforts result in consistent, annual land-cover maps from 1938 through 2100, with multiple scenarios of potential land cover for future periods.

Modeling Examples

For more on Land Cover Modeling, visit the full site.

 

Below are publications associated with this project.

Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from
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Climate Research and Development Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Land Change Science Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Modeled historical land use and land cover for the conterminous United States

The landscape of the conterminous United States has changed dramatically over the last 200 years, with agricultural land use, urban expansion, forestry, and other anthropogenic activities altering land cover across vast swaths of the country. While land use and land cover (LULC) models have been developed to model potential future LULC change, few efforts have focused on recreating historical land
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Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Climate change and wildfire risk in an expanding wildland–urban interface: a case study from the Colorado Front Range Corridor

Context Wildfire is a particular concern in the wildland–urban interface (WUI) of the western United States where human development occurs close to flammable natural vegetation. Objectives (1) Assess the relative influences of WUI expansion versus climate-driven fire regime change on spatial and temporal patterns of burned WUI, and (2) determine whether WUI developed in the future will have hig
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Climate Research and Development Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Land Change Science Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a de
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Climate Research and Development Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Land Change Science Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Projection of corn production and stover-harvesting impacts on soil organic carbon dynamics in the U.S. Temperate Prairies

Terrestrial carbon sequestration potential is widely considered as a realistic option for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. However, this potential may be threatened by global changes including climate, land use, and management changes such as increased corn stover harvesting for rising production of cellulosic biofuel. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the dynamics of soil organic carbo
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Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Using Landsat imagery to detect, monitor, and project net landscape change

Detailed landscape information is a necessary component to bird habitat conservation planning. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center has been providing information on the Earth’s surface for over 40 years via the continuous series of Landsat satellites. In addition to operating, processing, and disseminating satellite images, EROS is the home to na
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Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply

Context In addition to biodiversity conservation, California rangelands generate multiple ecosystem services including livestock production, drinking and irrigation water, and carbon sequestration. California rangeland ecosystems have experienced substantial conversion to residential land use and more intensive agriculture. Objectives To understand the potential impacts to rangeland ecosystem serv
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Water Resources Mission Area, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, California Water Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Western Geographic Science Center

Projecting the spatiotemporal carbon dynamics of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem from 2006 to 2050

BackgroundClimate change and the concurrent change in wildfire events and land use comprehensively affect carbon dynamics in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The purpose of this study was to project the spatial and temporal aspects of carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) under these changes from 2006 to 2050. We selected three emission scenarios and produced simulations w
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Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Quantifying climate change mitigation potential in Great Plains wetlands for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios

We examined opportunities for avoided loss of wetland carbon stocks in the Great Plains of the United States in the context of future agricultural expansion through analysis of land-use land-cover (LULC) change scenarios, baseline carbon datasets and biogeochemical model outputs. A wetland map that classifies wetlands according to carbon pools was created to describe future patterns of carbon loss
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Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Western Geographic Science Center