Northern high-latitude regions are experiencing climate warming at rates nearly double that of lower latitudes, leading to warming and thawing of permafrost-affected soils, decomposition of previously frozen organic matter and increases in the number of large fire years, which can substantially impact social and environmental systems. Monitoring Arctic and boreal ecosystems of northern latitudes is challenging because of the high costs of conducting remote field work across these vast and heterogenous landscapes. Researchers at the Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, in collaboration with academic and federal partners, conduct studies that leverage field research, remote sensing, and modelling to better characterize Arctic and boreal ecosystem conditions and properties (e.g. permafrost, vegetation productivity, structure and composition, Earth surface dynamics), thereby improving our knowledge and understanding of how and why permafrost-affected landscapes are changing.

Neal Pastick (KBRwyle) documenting coastal erosion along Alaska’s Arctic coastline near the village of Kaktovik. (Credit: M. Torre Jorgenson)
Media Highlights
Our team’s research has been featured in a number of public media venues, including Scientific America, the Guardian, the New York Times, the Washington Post, and others. Below are a few recent examples.
The following is a brief overview of focal areas of EROS’ research on Arctic and boreal landscapes in Alaska:
Permafrost characterization:
Permafrost – permanently frozen ground – is estimated to underly nearly a quarter of the northern circumpolar and is vulnerable to thaw with continued climate warming. Changes in permafrost distribution can impact ecological, hydrological and topographical conditions, thereby disrupting communities, infrastructure, and fish and wildlife populations. Permafrost is difficult to monitor and map, however, because it is a subsurface phenomenon that is typically covered by surface organic material (e.g. vegetation). To address ecological and spatial complexities inherent when characterizing permafrost-affected soils, our team leverages state-of-the-art modelling tools and remote sensing data to extend geophysical surveys to the larger landscape. Our quantitative modeling approaches have enabled a new generation of permafrost maps and techniques needed by land resource managers and modelers to better understand Alaska’s changing landscape.
Land and surface-water dynamics:
Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem modelling provides a means for documenting and understanding historical and potential ecosystem changes in the face of climate warming. Our studies on land and surface waters range in scope from modelling and mapping of terrestrial biomass, which is a key biophysical parameter in the studies of Alaska's ecosystems, to the quantification of ecological, hydrological, and geomorphological change using remote sensing and process-based models. By incorporating field and geospatial data into modeling frameworks, we continue to investigate the interconnected responses in vegetation productivity, composition, surface-water dynamics and disturbances to climate warming. Current work addresses the characterization and implications of earth-surface dynamics on permafrost-affected landscapes and communities, including thermokarst, lacustrine dynamics, wildfire, and erosion and deposition.
Funding
This research has been funded by the U.S. Geological Survey Land Change Science, Biological Sequestration (LandCarbon), National Research, and Climate Land Use Research and Development Programs, as well as NASA’s Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) and the Fish & Wildlife Service.
Below are publications associated with this project.
The role of driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of upland ecosystems in Alaska
Spatiotemporal remote sensing of ecosystem change and causation across Alaska
Geospatial data mining for digital raster mapping
Assessing historical and projected carbon balance of Alaska: A synthesis of results and policy/management implications
The role of driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of upland ecosystems in Alaska
Historical and projected trends in landscape drivers affecting carbon dynamics in Alaska
The interacting roles of climate, soils, and plant production on soil microbial communities at a continental scale
In situ nuclear magnetic resonance response of permafrost and active layer soil in boreal and tundra ecosystems
Evidence for nonuniform permafrost degradation after fire in boreal landscapes
Distribution of near-surface permafrost in Alaska: estimates of present and future conditions
Spatially explicit estimation of aboveground boreal forest biomass in the Yukon River Basin, Alaska
Effects of disturbance and climate change on ecosystem performance in the Yukon River Basin boreal forest
Spatial variability and landscape controls of near-surface permafrost within the Alaskan Yukon River Basin
Below are news stories associated with this project.
New Study Provides the First Comprehensive, Long-term Look at Alaska’s Changing Ecosystems
New research has revealed significant changes to Alaska’s landscape in recent decades
- Overview
Northern high-latitude regions are experiencing climate warming at rates nearly double that of lower latitudes, leading to warming and thawing of permafrost-affected soils, decomposition of previously frozen organic matter and increases in the number of large fire years, which can substantially impact social and environmental systems. Monitoring Arctic and boreal ecosystems of northern latitudes is challenging because of the high costs of conducting remote field work across these vast and heterogenous landscapes. Researchers at the Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, in collaboration with academic and federal partners, conduct studies that leverage field research, remote sensing, and modelling to better characterize Arctic and boreal ecosystem conditions and properties (e.g. permafrost, vegetation productivity, structure and composition, Earth surface dynamics), thereby improving our knowledge and understanding of how and why permafrost-affected landscapes are changing.
Neal Pastick (KBRwyle) documenting coastal erosion along Alaska’s Arctic coastline near the village of Kaktovik. (Credit: M. Torre Jorgenson)
Media HighlightsOur team’s research has been featured in a number of public media venues, including Scientific America, the Guardian, the New York Times, the Washington Post, and others. Below are a few recent examples.
Trends in mean annual temperature anomalies from the long-term mean (1950 to 2015) in Alaska; (b) plots of annual temperature anomalies and trends for all of Alaska overlain by annual anomalies of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Index (http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/) as represented by a dashed line, and; (c) plots of anomalies and trends in Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) Region (Pastick, 2018) The following is a brief overview of focal areas of EROS’ research on Arctic and boreal landscapes in Alaska:
Permafrost characterization:
Permafrost – permanently frozen ground – is estimated to underly nearly a quarter of the northern circumpolar and is vulnerable to thaw with continued climate warming. Changes in permafrost distribution can impact ecological, hydrological and topographical conditions, thereby disrupting communities, infrastructure, and fish and wildlife populations. Permafrost is difficult to monitor and map, however, because it is a subsurface phenomenon that is typically covered by surface organic material (e.g. vegetation). To address ecological and spatial complexities inherent when characterizing permafrost-affected soils, our team leverages state-of-the-art modelling tools and remote sensing data to extend geophysical surveys to the larger landscape. Our quantitative modeling approaches have enabled a new generation of permafrost maps and techniques needed by land resource managers and modelers to better understand Alaska’s changing landscape.
Projected near-surface (within 1 m) permafrost probabilities for Alaska, using downscaled climate forcing data from an average of five general circulation model outputs with an A1B emission scenario for the 21st century (Pastick et al. 2015). Deploying geophysical equipment in interior Alaska to assess the effect of wildfire on permafrost. Small electrical signals are injected into the ground through metal stakes connected to the orange cable in the foreground. The measured response is used to detect belowground permafrost conditions. Land and surface-water dynamics:
Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem modelling provides a means for documenting and understanding historical and potential ecosystem changes in the face of climate warming. Our studies on land and surface waters range in scope from modelling and mapping of terrestrial biomass, which is a key biophysical parameter in the studies of Alaska's ecosystems, to the quantification of ecological, hydrological, and geomorphological change using remote sensing and process-based models. By incorporating field and geospatial data into modeling frameworks, we continue to investigate the interconnected responses in vegetation productivity, composition, surface-water dynamics and disturbances to climate warming. Current work addresses the characterization and implications of earth-surface dynamics on permafrost-affected landscapes and communities, including thermokarst, lacustrine dynamics, wildfire, and erosion and deposition.
Time series imagery of the Ninglick River encroaching on Newtok, a village of 350 located in south western Alaska. (Credit: Neal J. Pastick) Map of Alaska showing probability (%) of change occurrence from 1984 to 2015. Insets show fire boundaries from the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Large Fire Database and Landsat 8 imagery (bottom right; 2016) north of Fairbanks, Alaska (Pastick et al. 2018) Funding
This research has been funded by the U.S. Geological Survey Land Change Science, Biological Sequestration (LandCarbon), National Research, and Climate Land Use Research and Development Programs, as well as NASA’s Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) and the Fish & Wildlife Service.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
The role of driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of upland ecosystems in Alaska
It is important to understand how upland ecosystems of Alaska, which are estimated to occupy 84% of the state (i.e., 1,237,774 km2), are influencing and will influence state‐wide carbon (C) dynamics in the face of ongoing climate change. We coupled fire disturbance and biogeochemical models to assess the relative effects of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), climate, logging and fire regimFilter Total Items: 22Spatiotemporal remote sensing of ecosystem change and causation across Alaska
Contemporary climate change in Alaska has resulted in amplified rates of press and pulse disturbances that drive ecosystem change with significant consequences for socio‐environmental systems. Despite the vulnerability of Arctic and boreal landscapes to change, little has been done to characterize landscape change and associated drivers across northern high‐latitude ecosystems. Here we characterizGeospatial data mining for digital raster mapping
We performed an in-depth literature survey to identify the most popular data mining approaches that have been applied for raster mapping of ecological parameters through the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remotely sensed data. Popular data mining approaches included decision trees or “data mining” trees which consist of regression and classification trees, random forests, neural nAssessing historical and projected carbon balance of Alaska: A synthesis of results and policy/management implications
We summarize the results of a recent interagency assessment of land carbon dynamics in Alaska, in which carbon dynamics were estimated for all major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems for the historical period (1950–2009) and a projection period (2010–2099). Between 1950 and 2009, upland and wetland (i.e., terrestrial) ecosystems of the state gained 0.4 Tg C/yr (0.1% of net primary production, NPPThe role of driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of upland ecosystems in Alaska
It is important to understand how upland ecosystems of Alaska, which are estimated to occupy 84% of the state (i.e., 1,237,774 km2), are influencing and will influence state‐wide carbon (C) dynamics in the face of ongoing climate change. We coupled fire disturbance and biogeochemical models to assess the relative effects of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), climate, logging and fire regimHistorical and projected trends in landscape drivers affecting carbon dynamics in Alaska
Modern climate change in Alaska has resulted in widespread thawing of permafrost, increased fire activity, and extensive changes in vegetation characteristics that have significant consequences for socioecological systems. Despite observations of the heightened sensitivity of these systems to change, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of factors that drive ecosystem changes throughout AThe interacting roles of climate, soils, and plant production on soil microbial communities at a continental scale
Soil microbial communities control critical ecosystem processes such as decomposition, nutrient cycling, and soil organic matter formation. Continental scale patterns in the composition and functioning of microbial communities are related to climatic, biotic, and edaphic factors such as temperature and precipitation, plant community composition, and soil carbon, nitrogen, and pH. Although these reByEcosystems, Energy and Minerals, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Climate Research and Development Program, Energy Resources Program, Land Change Science Program, Mineral Resources Program, National Laboratories Program, Science and Decisions Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research CenterIn situ nuclear magnetic resonance response of permafrost and active layer soil in boreal and tundra ecosystems
Characterization of permafrost, particularly warm and near-surface permafrost which can contain significant liquid water, is critical to understanding complex interrelationships with climate change, ecosystems, and disturbances such as wildfires. Understanding the vulnerability and resilience of permafrost requires an interdisciplinary approach, relying on (for example) geophysical investigations,Evidence for nonuniform permafrost degradation after fire in boreal landscapes
Fire can be a significant driver of permafrost change in boreal landscapes, altering the availability of soil carbon and nutrients that have important implications for future climate and ecological succession. However, not all landscapes are equally susceptible to fire-induced change. As fire frequency is expected to increase in the high latitudes, methods to understand the vulnerability and resilDistribution of near-surface permafrost in Alaska: estimates of present and future conditions
High-latitude regions are experiencing rapid and extensive changes in ecosystem composition and function as the result of increases in average air temperature. Increasing air temperatures have led to widespread thawing and degradation of permafrost, which in turn has affected ecosystems, socioeconomics, and the carbon cycle of high latitudes. Here we overcome complex interactions among surface andSpatially explicit estimation of aboveground boreal forest biomass in the Yukon River Basin, Alaska
Quantification of aboveground biomass (AGB) in Alaska’s boreal forest is essential to the accurate evaluation of terrestrial carbon stocks and dynamics in northern high-latitude ecosystems. Our goal was to map AGB at 30 m resolution for the boreal forest in the Yukon River Basin of Alaska using Landsat data and ground measurements. We acquired Landsat images to generate a 3-year (2008–2010) composEffects of disturbance and climate change on ecosystem performance in the Yukon River Basin boreal forest
A warming climate influences boreal forest productivity, dynamics, and disturbance regimes. We used ecosystem models and 250 m satellite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data averaged over the growing season (GSN) to model current, and estimate future, ecosystem performance. We modeled Expected Ecosystem Performance (EEP), or anticipated productivity, in undisturbed stands over the 20Spatial variability and landscape controls of near-surface permafrost within the Alaskan Yukon River Basin
The distribution of permafrost is important to understand because of permafrost's influence on high-latitude ecosystem structure and functions. Moreover, near-surface (defined here as within 1 m of the Earth's surface) permafrost is particularly susceptible to a warming climate and is generally poorly mapped at regional scales. Subsequently, our objectives were to (1) develop the first-known binar - News
Below are news stories associated with this project.
New Study Provides the First Comprehensive, Long-term Look at Alaska’s Changing Ecosystems
New research has revealed significant changes to Alaska’s landscape in recent decades