Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted and Measured Hurricane Milton Beach Impacts
As Hurricane Milton approached the U.S. Gulf of America coast, the USGS Coastal Change Hazards team produced a series of forecasts for impacts on the beach. Forecasts were updated daily based on wave and storm surge forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Sensors were installed along the coast to measure the storm-induced water levels and waves.
Prior to landfall on the Florida coast on October 9, 2024, the Coastal Change Hazards Team predicted that 86 percent of beaches along the west coast of the Florida peninsula were very likely to erode at the dunes’ base, 82 percent of dunes were very likely to be overwashed by storm waves, and 75 percent of dunes were expected to be very likely to be inundated (completely submerged) by surge, tide, and waves given worst-case scenario surge and timing of the storm. In addition to special forecasts focused on impacts at the peak of the storm, real-time forecasts were being updated in the Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer. In coordination with the USGS Florida-Caribbean Water Science Center, sensors were installed along the coast from Naples to Crystal River to measure the storm-induced water levels and waves. After landfall of a storm, the Coastal Change Hazards team uses NOAA imagery, USGS CoastCams, other beach cams, Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) constructed from post-storm aerial imagery and lidar data, and observations from USGS sensors to validate the predictions. The USGS Coastal Change Forecast model is used to estimate the impacts of elevated waves and storm surge along the coast due to extreme storms. This model has been in use since 2011 and is continually updated and improved.
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