Publications
Publications, scientific literature, and information products from the Land Change Science Program.
Filter Total Items: 565
Case studies of capacity building for biodiversity monitoring Case studies of capacity building for biodiversity monitoring
Monitoring the status and trends of species is critical to their conservation and management. However, the current state of biodiversity monitoring is insufficient to detect such for most species and habitats, other than in a few localised areas. One of the biggest obstacles to adequate monitoring is the lack of local capacity to carry out such programs. Thus, building the capacity to do...
Authors
Dirk Schmeller, Christos Arvanitidis, Monika Bohm, Neil Brummitt, Eva Chatzinikolaou, Mark Costello, Hui Ding, Michael Gill, Peter Haase, Romain Juillard, Jaime Garcia-Moreno, Nathalie Pettorelli, Cui Peng, Corinna Riginos, Ute Schmiedel, John Simaika, Carly Waterman, Jun Wu, Haigen Xu, Jayne Belnap
Integrating continuous stocks and flows into state-and-transition simulation models of landscape change Integrating continuous stocks and flows into state-and-transition simulation models of landscape change
State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) provide a general framework for forecasting landscape dynamics, including projections of both vegetation and land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The STSM method divides a landscape into spatially-referenced cells and then simulates the state of each cell forward in time, as a discrete-time stochastic process using a Monte Carlo approach, in...
Authors
Colin Daniel, Benjamin Sleeter, Leonardo Frid, Marie-Josée Fortin
Landscape-scale variation in canopy water content of giant sequoias during drought Landscape-scale variation in canopy water content of giant sequoias during drought
Recent drought (2012–2016) caused unprecedented foliage dieback in giant sequoias (Sequoiadendron giganteum), a species endemic to the western slope of the southern Sierra Nevada in central California. As part of an effort to understand and map sequoia response to droughts, we studied the patterns of remotely sensed canopy water content (CWC), both within and among sequoia groves in two...
Authors
Tarin Paz-Kagan, Nicolas Vaughn, Roberta Martin, Philip Brodrick, Nathan Stephenson, Adrian Das, Koren Nydick, Gregory Asner
Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin
Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we use a very large suite of synthetic climate scenarios in a statistical modeling framework to simultaneously evaluate how (1) average temperature and precipitation changes, (2) initial basin conditions, and (3) temporal
Authors
Stephanie A. McAfee, Gregory Pederson, Connie Woodhouse, Gregory McCabe
Organic carbon burial in global lakes and reservoirs Organic carbon burial in global lakes and reservoirs
Burial in sediments removes organic carbon (OC) from the short-term biosphere-atmosphere carbon (C) cycle, and therefore prevents greenhouse gas production in natural systems. Although OC burial in lakes and reservoirs is faster than in the ocean, the magnitude of inland water OC burial is not well constrained. Here we generate the first global-scale and regionally resolved estimate of...
Authors
Raquel Mendonca, Roger Muller, David Clow, Charles Verpoorter, Peter Raymond, Lars Tranvik, Sebastian Sobek
Comparing catchment hydrologic response to a regional storm using specific conductivity sensors Comparing catchment hydrologic response to a regional storm using specific conductivity sensors
A better understanding of stormwater generation and solute sources is needed to improve the protection of aquatic ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health from large runoff events. Much of our understanding of water and solutes produced during stormflow comes from studies of individual, small headwater catchments. This study compared many different types of catchments during a single...
Authors
Ashley Inserillo, Mark B. Green, James Shanley, Joseph Boyer
Patterns and correlates of giant sequoia foliage dieback during California’s 2012–2016 hotter drought Patterns and correlates of giant sequoia foliage dieback during California’s 2012–2016 hotter drought
Hotter droughts – droughts in which unusually high temperatures exacerbate the effects of low precipitation – are expected to increase in frequency and severity in coming decades, challenging scientists and managers to identify which parts of forested landscapes may be most vulnerable. In 2014, in the middle of California’s historically unprecedented 2012–2016 hotter drought, we noticed...
Authors
Nathan Stephenson, Adrian Das, Nicholas Ampersee, Kathleen Cahill, Anthony Caprio, John Sanders, A. Williams
Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change
With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially...
Authors
Tamara Wilson, Benjamin Sleeter, D. Cameron
Perspectives on chemical oceanography in the 21st century: Participants of the COME ABOARD Meeting examine aspects of the field in the context of 40 years of DISCO Perspectives on chemical oceanography in the 21st century: Participants of the COME ABOARD Meeting examine aspects of the field in the context of 40 years of DISCO
The questions that chemical oceanographers prioritize over the coming decades, and the methods we use to address these questions, will define our field's contribution to 21st century science. In recognition of this, the U.S. National Science Foundation and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration galvanized a community effort (the Chemical Oceanography MEeting: A BOttom-up...
Authors
Andrea Fassbender, Hilary Palevsky, Todd Martz, Anitra Ingalls, Martha Gledhill, Sarah Fawcett, Jay Brandes, Lihini Aluwihare, Robert M. Anderson, Sara Bender, Ed Boyle, Debbie Bronk, Ken Buesseler, David Burdige, Karen Casciotti, Hilary Close, Maureen Conte, Greg Cutter, Meg Estapa, Katja Fennel, Sara Ferron, Brian Glazer, Miguel Goni, Max Grand, Chris Guay, Mariko Hatta, Chris Hayes, Tristan Horner, Ellery Ingall, Kenneth Johnson, Laurie Juranek, Angela Knapp, Phoebe Lam, George Luther, Paty Matrai, David Nicholson, Adina Paytan, Robert Pellenbarg, Kim Popendorf, Christopher Reddy, Kathleen Ruttenberg, Chris Sabine, Frank Sansone, Nayrah Shaltout, Liz Sikes, Eric Sundquist, David Valentine, Zhao Wang, Sam Wilson, Pamela Barrett, Melanie Behrens, Anna Belcher, Lauren Biermann, Rene Boiteau, Jennifer Clarke, Jamie Collins, Alysha Coppola, Alina Ebling, Fenix Garcia-Tigreros, Johanna Goldman, Elisa Guallart, William Haskell, Sarah Hurley, David Janssen, Winn Johnson, Sinikka Lennhartz, Shuting Liu, Shaily Rahman, Daisy Ray, Amit Sarkar, Zvika Steiner, Brittany Widner, Bo Yang
Evidence for a climate-induced ecohydrological state shift in wetland ecosystems of the southern Prairie Pothole Region Evidence for a climate-induced ecohydrological state shift in wetland ecosystems of the southern Prairie Pothole Region
Changing magnitude, frequency, and timing of precipitation can influence aquatic-system hydrological, geochemical, and biological processes, in some cases resulting in system-wide shifts to an alternate state. Since the early 1990s, the southern Prairie Pothole Region has been subjected to an extended period of increased wetness resulting in marked changes to aquatic systems defining...
Authors
Owen McKenna, David Mushet, Donald Rosenberry, James LaBaugh
Long-term persistence and fire resilience of oak shrubfields in dry conifer forests of northern New Mexico Long-term persistence and fire resilience of oak shrubfields in dry conifer forests of northern New Mexico
Extensive high-severity fires are creating large shrubfields in many dry conifer forests of the interior western USA, raising concerns about forest-to-shrub conversion. This study evaluates the role of disturbance in shrubfield formation, maintenance and succession in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico. We compared the environmental conditions of extant Gambel oak (Quercus gambelii)...
Authors
Christopher Guiterman, Ellis Margolis, Craig Allen, Donald Falk, Thomas Swetnam
Characterizing interactions between fire and other disturbances and their impacts on tree mortality in western U.S. Forests Characterizing interactions between fire and other disturbances and their impacts on tree mortality in western U.S. Forests
Increasing evidence that pervasive warming trends are altering disturbance regimes and their interactions with fire has generated substantial interest and debate over the implications of these changes. Previous work has primarily focused on conditions that promote non-additive interactions of linked and compounded disturbances, but the spectrum of potential interaction patterns has not...
Authors
Jeffrey Kane, J. Varner, Margaret Metz, Phillip van Mantgem