Publications
Listed here are publications, reports and articles by the Land Change Science Program in the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area.
Filter Total Items: 1284
Regional streamflow drought forecasting in the Colorado River Basin using Deep Neural Network models Regional streamflow drought forecasting in the Colorado River Basin using Deep Neural Network models
Process-based, large-scale (e.g., conterminous United States [CONUS]) hydrologic models have struggled to achieve reliable streamflow drought performance in arid regions and for low-flow periods. Deep learning has recently seen broad implementation in streamflow prediction and forecasting research projects throughout the world with performance often equaling or exceeding that of process...
Authors
Scott Douglas Hamshaw, Phillip J. Goodling, Konrad Hafen, John C. Hammond, Ryan R. McShane, Roy Sando, Apoorva Ramesh Shastry, Caelan E. Simeone, David Watkins, Elaheh White, Michael Wieczorek
Synthesis of climate and ecological science to support grassland management priorities in the North Central Region Synthesis of climate and ecological science to support grassland management priorities in the North Central Region
Grasslands in the Great Plains are of ecological, economic, and cultural importance in the United States. In response to a need to understand how climate change and variability will impact grassland ecosystems and their management in the 21st century, the U.S. Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center led a synthesis of peer-reviewed climate and ecology literature...
Authors
Christine D. Miller Hesed, Heather M. Yocum, Imtiaz Rangwala, Amy Symstad, Jeff M. Martin, Kevin Ellison, David J. A. Wood, Marissa Ahlering, Katherine J. Chase, Shelley Crausbay, Ana D. Davidson, Julie L. Elliott, Jim Giocomo, David Hoover, Toni Klemm, David A. Lightfoot, Owen P. McKenna, Brian W. Miller, Danika Mosher, R. Chelsea Nagy, Jesse B. Nippert, Jeremy Pittman, Lauren M. Porensky, Jilmarie Stephens, Alexander V. Zale
Planktic foraminifera Planktic foraminifera
Planktic foraminifera are single-celled marine organisms that secrete calcium carbonate tests. They live in the ocean's photic zone, and when they die, their tests, each about the size of a grain of sand, collect on the ocean floor. The geographic distribution of planktic foraminifera is mostly governed by the temperature and salinity of the ocean surface, and species assemblages are...
Authors
Harry J. Dowsett, Marci M. Robinson
Holocene vegetation dynamics of circum-Arctic permafrost peatlands Holocene vegetation dynamics of circum-Arctic permafrost peatlands
Vegetation shifts in circum-Arctic permafrost peatlands drive feedbacks with important consequences for peatland carbon budgets and the extent of permafrost thaw under changing climate. Recent shrub expansion across Arctic tundra environments has led to an increase in above-ground biomass, but the long-term spatiotemporal dynamics of shrub and tree growth in circum-Arctic peatlands...
Authors
Richard Fewster, Paul J. Morris, Graeme T. Swindles, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Claire C. Treat, Miriam C. Jones
Foraging behavior of Raramuri Criollo vs. Angus cattle grazing California Chaparral and Colorado Plateau shrublands Foraging behavior of Raramuri Criollo vs. Angus cattle grazing California Chaparral and Colorado Plateau shrublands
Selecting livestock genetics adapted to arid environments, such as Criollo cattle, is one of several strategies recommended for decreasing the vulnerability to climate change of ranching in the southwestern USA. Our objective was to determine whether desirable foraging traits of Criollo cattle previously documented in the Chihuahuan Desert, held true in two of the most climate-vulnerable
Authors
Danielle M. Duni, Matthew M. McIntosh, Shelemia Nyamuryekung’e, Andres F. Cibils, Michael C. Duniway, Richard E. Estell, Sheri A. Spiegal, Alfredo L. Gonzalez, Melakeneh G. Gedefaw, Matthew Redd, Robert Paulin, Caitriana M. Steele, Santiago A. Utsumi, Andres R. Perea
Droughting a megadrought: Ecological consequences of a decade of experimental drought atop aridification on the Colorado Plateau Droughting a megadrought: Ecological consequences of a decade of experimental drought atop aridification on the Colorado Plateau
Global dryland vegetation communities will likely change as ongoing drought conditions shift regional climates towards a more arid future. Additional aridification of drylands can impact plant and ground cover, biogeochemical cycles, and plant-soil feedbacks, yet how and when these crucial ecosystem components will respond to drought intensification requires further investigation. Using...
Authors
Rebecca A Finger-Higgens, Tara Boyce Belnap Bishop, Jayne Belnap, Erika L. Geiger, Edmund E. Grote, David Hoover, Sasha C. Reed, Michael C. Duniway
Variable effects of long-term livestock grazing across the western United States suggest diverse approaches are needed to meet global change challenges Variable effects of long-term livestock grazing across the western United States suggest diverse approaches are needed to meet global change challenges
Aims Livestock production is the most widespread land use globally and occurs across a diverse set of ecosystems. Variability in long-term livestock grazing impacts across ecosystems is poorly characterized, particularly at larger spatial scales, despite strong relationships with various ecosystem services related to soil fertility and stabilization and vegetation productivity. Here we...
Authors
Stella M. Copeland, David L. Hoover, David J. Augustine, Jonathan D Bates, Chad S. Boyd, Kirk W. Davies, Justin D. Derner, Michael C. Duniway, Lauren M. Porensky, Lance T Vermeire
Climate-driven tradeoffs between landscape connectivity and the maintenance of the coastal carbon sink Climate-driven tradeoffs between landscape connectivity and the maintenance of the coastal carbon sink
Ecosystem connectivity tends to increase the resilience and function of ecosystems responding to stressors. Coastal ecosystems sequester disproportionately large amounts of carbon, but rapid exchange of water, nutrients, and sediment makes them vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. Individual components of the coastal landscape (i.e., marsh, forest, bay) have contrasting...
Authors
Kendall Valentine, Ellen R. Herbert, David Walters, Yaping Chen, Alexander J. Smith, Matthew L. Kirwan
Regional variability in peatland burning at mid-to high-latitudes during the Holocene Regional variability in peatland burning at mid-to high-latitudes during the Holocene
Northern peatlands store globally-important amounts of carbon in the form of partly decomposed plant detritus. Drying associated with climate and land-use change may lead to increased fire frequency and severity in peatlands and the rapid loss of carbon to the atmosphere. However, our understanding of the patterns and drivers of peatland burning on an appropriate decadal to millennial...
Authors
Thomas G. Sim, Graeme T. Swindles, Paul J. Morris, Andy J. Baird, Angela V. Gallego-Sala, Yuwan Wang, Maarten Blaauw, Philip Camill, Michelle Garneau, Mark Hardiman, Julie Loisel, Minna Valiranta, Lysanna Anderson, Karina Apolinarska, Femke Augustijns, Liene Aunina, Joannie Beaulne, Premysl Bobek, Werner Borken, Nils Broothaerts, Qiao-Yu Cui, Marissa A. Davies, Ana Ejarque, Michelle Farrell, Ingo Feeser, Angelica Feurdean, Richard Fewster, Sarah A. Finkelstein, Marie-Jose Gaillard, Mariusz Gałka, Annica Greisman, Liam Heffernan, Renske Hoevers, Miriam C. Jones, Teemu Juselius, Edgar Karofeld, Klaus Holger Knorr, Atte Korhola, Dmitri Kupriyanov, Malin Kylander, Terri Lacourse, Mariusz Lamentowicz, Martin Lavoie, Geoffrey Lemdahl, Dominika Lucow, Gabriel Magnan, Alekss Maksims, Claudia A. Mansilla, Katarzyna Marcisz, Elena Marinova, Paul J.H. Mathijssen, Dmitri Mauquoy, Yuri Mazei, Natalia Mazei, Julia McCarroll, Robert McCulloch, Alice Milner, Yannick Miras, Fraser J.G. Mitchell, Elena Novenko, Nicolas Pelletier, Matthew Peros, Sanna Pillo, Louis-Martin Pilote, Guillaume Primeau, Damien Rius, Vincent Robin, Mylene Robitaille, Thomas P. Roland, Eleonor Ryberg, A. Britta K. Sannel, Karsten Schittek, Gabriel Servera-Vives, William Shotyk, Michal Slowinski, Normunds Stivrins, Ward Swinnen, Gareth Thompson, Alexei Tiunov, Andrey N. Tsyganov, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Gert Verstraeten, Tuomo Wallenius, Julia Webb, Debra A. Willard, Zicheng Yu, Claudio Zaccone, Hui Zhang
Linking seed size and number to trait syndromes in trees Linking seed size and number to trait syndromes in trees
Aim Our understanding of the mechanisms that maintain forest diversity under changing climate can benefit from knowledge about traits that are closely linked to fitness. We tested whether the link between traits and seed number and seed size is consistent with two hypotheses, termed the leaf economics spectrum and the plant size syndrome, or whether reproduction represents an independent...
Authors
Michal Bogdziewicz, Marie-Claire Aravena Acuña, Robert A. Andrus, Davide Ascoli, Yves Bergeron, Daniel Brveiller, Thomas Boivin, Raul Bonal, Thomas Caignard, Maxime Cailleret, Rafael Calama, Sergio Donoso Calderon, J. Julio Camarero, Chia-Hao Chang-Yang, Jerome Chave, Francesco Chianucci, Natalie L. Cleavitt, Benoit Courbaud, Andrea Cutini, Thomas Curt, Adrian J. Das, Hendrik Davi, Nicolas Delpiere, Sylvain Delzon, Michael Dietze, Laurent Dormont, William Farfan-Rios, Catherine A. Gehring, Gregory S. Gilbert, Georg Gratzer, Cathryn H. Greenberg, Arthur Guignabert, Qinfeng Guo, Andrew Hacket-Pain, Arndt Hampe, Qingmin Han, Kazuhiko Hoshizaki, Ines Ibanez, Jill F. Johnstone, Valentin Journe, Thomas Kitzberger, Johannes M.H. Knops, Georges Kunstler, Richard Kobe, Jonathan G. A. Lageard, Jalene M. LaMontagne, Mateusz Ledwon, Theodor Leininger, Jean-Marc Limousin, James A. Lutz, Diana Macias, Anders Marell, Eliot J.B. McIntire, Emily V. Moran, Renzo Motta, Jonathan A. Myers, Thomas A. Nagel, Shoji Naoe, Kyotaro Noguchi, Michio Oguro, Hiroko Kurokawa, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Robert Parmenter, Ignacio M. Perez-Ramos, Lukasz Piechnik, Tomasz Podgorski, John Poulsen, Tong Qiu, Miranda D. Redmond, Chantal D. Reid, Kyle C. Rodman, Pavel Šamonil, Jan Holik, C. Lane Scher, Harald Schmidt Van Marle, Barbara Seget, Mitsue Shibata, Shubhi Sharma, Miles Silman, Michael A. Steele, Jacob N. Straub, I-Fang Sun, Samantha Sutton, Jennifer J. Swenson, Peter A. Thomas, Maria Uriarte, Giorgio Vacchiano, Thomas T. Veblen, Boyd Wright, S. Joseph Wright, Thomas G. Whitham, Kai Zhu, Jess K. Zimmerman, Magdalna Zywiec, James S. Clark
The relative stability of planktic foraminifer thermal preferences over the past 3 million years The relative stability of planktic foraminifer thermal preferences over the past 3 million years
Stationarity of species’ ecological tolerances is a first-order assumption of paleoenvironmental reconstruction based upon analog methods. To test this and other assumptions used in quantitative analysis of foraminiferal faunas for paleoceanographic reconstruction, we analyzed paired alkenone unsaturation ratio (UK′37) 37′) sea surface temperature (SST) estimates and relative abundances...
Authors
Harry J. Dowsett, Marci M. Robinson, Kevin M. Foley, Timothy D. Herbert, Steve Hunter, Carin Andersson, Whittney Spivey
Increased whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) growth and defense under a warmer and regionally drier climate Increased whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) growth and defense under a warmer and regionally drier climate
Introduction: Tree defense characteristics play a crucial role in modulating conifer bark beetle interactions, and there is a growing body of literature investigating factors mediating tree growth and resin-based defenses in conifers. A subset of studies have looked at relationships between tree growth, resin duct morphology and climate; however, these studies are almost exclusively from...
Authors
Nicholas E. Kichas, Gregory T. Pederson, Sharon M. Hood, Richard G. Everett, David B. McWethy