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Publications

Listed here are publications, reports and articles by the Land Change Science Program in the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area.

Filter Total Items: 1145

Land before water: The relative temporal sequence of human alteration of freshwater ecosystems in the conterminous United States Land before water: The relative temporal sequence of human alteration of freshwater ecosystems in the conterminous United States

Human alteration of ecosystems prior to Euro-American contact in the area that became the conterminous United States disproportionately affected terrestrial systems compared to freshwater ecosystems, primarily through the use of fire and agriculture in some regions of the United States. After circa 1600 AD, trapping of beaver, along with intensive modification of rivers and wetlands for...
Authors
Ellen Wohl, Katherine Lininger, Jill Baron

Parcels versus pixels: modeling agricultural land use across broad geographic regions using parcel-based field boundaries Parcels versus pixels: modeling agricultural land use across broad geographic regions using parcel-based field boundaries

Land use and land cover (LULC) change occurs at a local level within contiguous ownership and management units (parcels), yet LULC models primarily use pixel-based spatial frameworks. The few parcel-based models being used overwhelmingly focus on small geographic areas, limiting the ability to assess LULC change impacts at regional to national scales. We developed a modified version of...
Authors
Terry Sohl, Jordan Dornbierer, Steve Wika, Kristi Sayler, Robert Quenzer

The recent warming trend in North Greenland The recent warming trend in North Greenland

The Arctic is among the fastest warming regions on Earth, but it is also one with limited spatial coverage of multidecadal instrumental surface air temperature measurements. Consequently, atmospheric reanalyses are relatively unconstrained in this region, resulting in a large spread of estimated 30 year recent warming trends, which limits their use to investigate the mechanisms...
Authors
Anais Orsi, Kenji Kawamura, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Xavier Fettweis, Jason Box, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Gary Clow, Amaelle Landais, Jeffrey Severinghaus

Analyzing cloud base at local and regional scales to understand tropical montane cloud forest vulnerability to climate change Analyzing cloud base at local and regional scales to understand tropical montane cloud forest vulnerability to climate change

The degree to which cloud immersion provides water in addition to rainfall, suppresses transpiration, and sustains tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs) during rainless periods is not well understood. Climate and land use changes represent a threat to these forests if cloud base altitude rises as a result of regional warming or deforestation. To establish a baseline for quantifying...
Authors
Ashley Van Beusekom, Grizelle Gonzalez, Martha Scholl

Evaluating species-specific changes in hydrologic regimes: an iterative approach for salmonids in the Greater Yellowstone Area (USA) Evaluating species-specific changes in hydrologic regimes: an iterative approach for salmonids in the Greater Yellowstone Area (USA)

Despite the importance of hydrologic regimes to the phenology, demography, and abundance of fishes such as salmonids, there have been surprisingly few syntheses that holistically assess regional, species-specific trends in hydrologic regimes within a framework of climate change. Here, we consider hydrologic regimes within the Greater Yellowstone Area in the Rocky Mountains of western...
Authors
Robert Al-Chokhachy, Adam Sepulveda, Andrew Ray, David Thoma, Michael Tercek

Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and...
Authors
Benjamin Sleeter, Nathan Wood, Christopher Soulard, Tamara Wilson

Distance and environmental difference in alpine plant communities Distance and environmental difference in alpine plant communities

Differences in plant communities are a response to the abiotic environment, species interactions, and dispersal. The role of geographic distance relative to the abiotic environment is explored for alpine tundra vegetation from 319 plots of four regions along the Rocky Mountain cordillera in the USA. The site by species data were ordinated using nonmetric multidimensional scaling to...
Authors
George Malanson, Dale Zimmerman, Daniel Fagre

Drought, multi-seasonal climate, and wildfire in northern New Mexico Drought, multi-seasonal climate, and wildfire in northern New Mexico

Wildfire is increasingly a concern in the USA, where 10 million acres burned in 2015. Climate is a primary driver of wildfire, and understanding fire-climate relationships is crucial for informing fire management and modeling the effects of climate change on fire. In the southwestern USA, fire-climate relationships have been informed by tree-ring data that extend centuries prior to the...
Authors
Ellis Margolis, Connie Woodhouse, Thomas Swetnam

Temporal variability of foliar nutrients: responses to nitrogen deposition and prescribed fire in a temperate steppe Temporal variability of foliar nutrients: responses to nitrogen deposition and prescribed fire in a temperate steppe

Plant nutrient concentrations and stoichiometry drive fundamental ecosystem processes, with important implications for primary production, diversity, and ecosystem sustainability. While a range of evidence exists regarding how plant nutrients vary across spatial scales, our understanding of their temporal variation remains less well understood. Nevertheless, we know nutrients regulate...
Authors
Xiao-Tao Lu, Sasha Reed, Shuang-Li Hou, Yan-Yu Hu, Hai-Wei Wei, Fu-Mei Lu, Qiang Cui, Xing Guo Han

Climate legacy and lag effects on dryland plant communities in the southwestern U.S. Climate legacy and lag effects on dryland plant communities in the southwestern U.S.

Climate change effects on vegetation will likely be strong in the southwestern U.S., which is projected to experience large increases in temperature and changes in precipitation. Plant communities in the southwestern U.S. may be particularly vulnerable to climate change as the productivity of many plant species is strongly water-limited. This study examines the relationship between...
Authors
Erin Bunting, Seth Munson, Miguel Villarreal

Tropical river suspended sediment and solute dynamics in storms during an extreme drought Tropical river suspended sediment and solute dynamics in storms during an extreme drought

Droughts, which can strongly affect both hydrologic and biogeochemical systems, are projected to become more prevalent in the tropics in the future. We assessed the effects of an extreme drought during 2015 on stream water composition in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico. We demonstrated that drought base flow in the months leading up to the study was sourced from trade-wind...
Authors
Kathryn Clark, James Shanley, Martha Scholl, Nicolas Perdrial, Julia Perdrial, Alain Plante, William McDowell
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