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Publications

Listed here are publications, reports and articles by the Land Change Science Program in the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area.

Filter Total Items: 1145

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broad-scale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—“hotter drought”, an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene—are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to...
Authors
Craig Allen, David Breshears, Nathan G. McDowell

Response of plant productivity to experimental flooding in a stable and a submerging marsh Response of plant productivity to experimental flooding in a stable and a submerging marsh

Recent models of tidal marsh evolution rely largely on the premise that plants are most productive at an optimal flooding regime that occurs when soil elevations are somewhere between mean sea level and mean high tide. Here, we use 4 years of manipulative “marsh organ” flooding experiments to test the generality of this conceptual framework and to examine how the optimal flooding...
Authors
Matthew L. Kirwan, Glenn Guntenspergen

Compact development and VMT: environmental determinism, self-selection, or some of both? Compact development and VMT: environmental determinism, self-selection, or some of both?

There is a long-running debate in the planning literature about the effects of the built environment on travel behavior and the degree to which apparent effects are due to the tendency of households to self-select into neighborhoods that reinforce their travel preferences. Those who want to walk will choose walkable neighborhoods, and those who want to use transit will choose transit...
Authors
Reid Ewing, Shima Hamidi, James Grace

Spatial scaling patterns and functional redundancies in a changing boreal lake landscape Spatial scaling patterns and functional redundancies in a changing boreal lake landscape

Global transformations extend beyond local habitats; therefore, larger-scale approaches are needed to assess community-level responses and resilience to unfolding environmental changes. Using longterm data (1996–2011), we evaluated spatial patterns and functional redundancies in the littoral invertebrate communities of 85 Swedish lakes, with the objective of assessing their potential...
Authors
David G. Angeler, Craig Allen, Daniel Uden, Richard Johnson

Accommodation space, relative sea level, and the archiving of paleo-earthquakes along subduction zones Accommodation space, relative sea level, and the archiving of paleo-earthquakes along subduction zones

The spatial variability of Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) change influences the capacities of coastal environments to accommodate a sedimentary record of paleoenvironmental change. In this study we couch a specific investigation in more general terms in order to demonstrate the applicability of the relative sea-level history approach to paleoseismic investigations. Using subsidence...
Authors
Harvey Kelsey, Simon Engelhart, Jessica Pilarczyk, Benjamin Horton, Charles Rubin, Mudrik Daryono, Nazli Ismail, Andrea D. Hawkes, Christopher Bernhardt, Niamh Cahill

Evaluation of habitat suitability index models by global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: a case study for submerged aquatic vegetation Evaluation of habitat suitability index models by global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: a case study for submerged aquatic vegetation

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models are commonly used to predict habitat quality and species distributions and are used to develop biological surveys, assess reserve and management priorities, and anticipate possible change under different management or climate change scenarios. Important management decisions may be based on model results, often without a clear understanding of the...
Authors
Zuzanna Zajac, Bradley Stith, Andrea Bowling, Catherine Langtimm, Eric Swain

Surface melt dominates Alaska glacier mass balance Surface melt dominates Alaska glacier mass balance

Mountain glaciers comprise a small and widely distributed fraction of the world's terrestrial ice, yet their rapid losses presently drive a large percentage of the cryosphere's contribution to sea level rise. Regional mass balance assessments are challenging over large glacier populations due to remote and rugged geography, variable response of individual glaciers to climate change, and...
Authors
Larsen F, E Burgess, A.A. Arendt, Shad O’Neel, A. Johnson, C. Kienholz

Coastal and wetland ecosystems of the Chesapeake Bay watershed: Applying palynology to understand impacts of changing climate, sea level, and land use Coastal and wetland ecosystems of the Chesapeake Bay watershed: Applying palynology to understand impacts of changing climate, sea level, and land use

The mid-Atlantic region and Chesapeake Bay watershed have been influenced by fluctuations in climate and sea level since the Cretaceous, and human alteration of the landscape began ~12,000 years ago, with greatest impacts since colonial times. Efforts to devise sustainable management strategies that maximize ecosystem services are integrating data from a range of scientific disciplines...
Authors
Debra Willard, Christopher Bernhardt, Cliff Hupp, Wayne Newell

Regional variability in dust-on-snow processes and impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin Regional variability in dust-on-snow processes and impacts in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Dust deposition onto mountain snow cover in the Upper Colorado River Basin frequently occurs in the spring when wind speeds and dust emission peaks on the nearby Colorado Plateau. Dust loading has increased since the intensive settlement in the western USA in the mid 1880s. The effects of dust-on-snow have been well studied at Senator Beck Basin Study Area (SBBSA) in the San Juan...
Authors
S. Skiles, Thomas Painter, Jayne Belnap, Lacey Holland, Richard Reynolds, Harland Goldstein, J. Lin

Summer declines in activity and body temperature offer polar bears limited energy savings Summer declines in activity and body temperature offer polar bears limited energy savings

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) summer on the sea ice or, where it melts, on shore. Although the physiology of “ice” bears in summer is unknown, “shore” bears purportedly minimize energy losses by entering a hibernation-like state when deprived of food. Such a strategy could partially compensate for the loss of on-ice foraging opportunities caused by climate change. However, here we report...
Authors
J.P. Whiteman, H.J. Harlow, George Durner, R. Anderson-Sprecher, Shannon Albeke, Eric Regehr, Steven Amstrup, M. Ben-David

Evidence of a higher late-Holocene treeline along the Continental Divide in central Colorado Evidence of a higher late-Holocene treeline along the Continental Divide in central Colorado

Using a combination of 23 radiocarbon ages and annual ring counts from 18 Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine (Pinus aristata) remnants above the local present-day limits, a period of higher treeline has been determined for two sites near the Continental Divide in central Colorado. The highest remnants were found about 30 m above live bristlecone pines of similar size. The majority of the...
Authors
Paul Carrara, John McGeehin

Water's Way at Sleepers River watershed – revisiting flow generation in a post-glacial landscape, Vermont USA Water's Way at Sleepers River watershed – revisiting flow generation in a post-glacial landscape, Vermont USA

The Sleepers River Research Watershed (SRRW) in Vermont, USA, has been the site of active hydrologic research since 1959 and was the setting where Dunne and Black demonstrated the importance and controls of saturation-excess overland flow (SOF) on streamflow generation. Here, we review the early studies from the SRRW and show how they guided our conceptual approach to hydrologic research...
Authors
James Shanley, Stephen Sebestyen, Jeffrey McDonnell, Brian McGlynn, Thomas Dunne
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