Publications
Publications, scientific literature, and information products from the Land Change Science Program.
Filter Total Items: 562
Structural equation modeling: Building and evaluating causal models
Scientists frequently wish to study hypotheses about causal relationships, rather than just statistical associations. This chapter addresses the question of how scientists might approach this ambitious task. Here we describe structural equation modeling (SEM), a general modeling framework for the study of causal hypotheses. Our goals are to (a) concisely describe the methodology, (b) illustrate it
Authors
James B. Grace, Samuel M. Scheiner, Donald R. Schoolmaster
A spatial individual-based model predicting a great impact of copious sugar sources and resting sites on survival of Anopheles gambiae and malaria parasite transmission
BackgroundAgent-based modelling (ABM) has been used to simulate mosquito life cycles and to evaluate vector control applications. However, most models lack sugar-feeding and resting behaviours or are based on mathematical equations lacking individual level randomness and spatial components of mosquito life. Here, a spatial individual-based model (IBM) incorporating sugar-feeding and resting behavi
Authors
Lin Zhu, Whitney A. Qualls, John M Marshall, Kris L. Arheart, Donald L. DeAngelis, John W. McManus, Sekou F. Traore, Seydou Doumbia, Yosef Schlein, Gunter C. Muller, John C. Beier
Adaptive management
Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive management has explicit structure, including a careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objective
Authors
Craig R. Allen, Ahjond S. Garmestani
Climate change and wildfire risk in an expanding wildland–urban interface: a case study from the Colorado Front Range Corridor
Context
Wildfire is a particular concern in the wildland–urban interface (WUI) of the western United States where human development occurs close to flammable natural vegetation.
Objectives
(1) Assess the relative influences of WUI expansion versus climate-driven fire regime change on spatial and temporal patterns of burned WUI, and (2) determine whether WUI developed in the future will have hig
Authors
Zhihua Liu, Michael C. Wimberly, Aashis Lamsal, Terry L. Sohl, Todd Hawbaker
An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California
Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization), often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address thi
Authors
Benjamin M. Sleeter, Jinxun Liu, Colin Daniel, Leonardo Frid, Zhiliang Zhu
Understanding protected area resilience: a multi-scale, social-ecological approach
Protected areas (PAs) remain central to the conservation of biodiversity. Classical PAs were conceived as areas that would be set aside to maintain a natural state with minimal human influence. However, global environmental change and growing cross-scale anthropogenic influences mean that PAs can no longer be thought of as ecological islands that function independently of the broader social-ecolog
Authors
Graeme S. Cumming, Craig R. Allen, Natalie C. Ban, Duan Biggs, Harry C. Biggs, David H.M Cumming, Alta De Vos, Graham Epstein, Michel Etienne, Kristine Maciejewski, Raphael Mathevet, Christine Moore, Mateja Nenadovic, Michael Schoon
Thermokarst lake methanogenesis along a complete talik profile
Thermokarst (thaw) lakes emit methane (CH4) to the atmosphere formed from thawed permafrost organic matter (OM), but the relative magnitude of CH4 production in surface lake sediments vs. deeper thawed permafrost horizons is not well understood. We assessed anaerobic CH4 production potentials from various depths along a 590 cm long lake sediment core that captured the entire sediment package of th
Authors
J.K. Heslop, K.M. Walter Anthony, A. Sepulveda-Jauregui, K. Martinez-Cruz, A. Bondurant, G. Grosse, Miriam C. Jones
The Southern Piedmont’s continued land-use evolution, 1973–2011
The southern Piedmont in the U.S. was an important farming region during the 19th century, but by the end of the 20th century, agricultural land use had decreased substantially with forest becoming the majority land cover by the 1970s. Geographical literature has documented this change but has not concentrated on the region’s contemporary land uses. The Piedmont currently has three main types of l
Authors
Roger F. Auch, Darrell E. Napton, Kristi Sayler, Mark A. Drummond, Steven Kambly, Daniel G. Sorenson
Effects of rapid urbanization on streamflow, erosion, and sedimentation in a desert stream in the American Southwest
Rapid urbanization has resulted in a series of sequential effects on a desert stream in the American Southwest. Lower Las Vegas Wash was a dry wash characterized by infrequent flood deposition when Las Vegas, Nevada was established in 1905. Wastewater effluent was discharged into the wash in low volumes for over 3 decades. Wastewater volumes increased commensurably with accelerated population grow
Authors
John W. Whitney, Patrick A. Glancy, Susan E. Buckingham, Arthur C. Ehrenberg
Management applications of discontinuity theory
Human impacts on the environment are multifaceted and can occur across distinct spatiotemporal scales. Ecological responses to environmental change are therefore difficult to predict, and entail large degrees of uncertainty. Such uncertainty requires robust tools for management to sustain ecosystem goods and services and maintain resilient ecosystems.We propose an approach based on discontinuity t
Authors
David G. Angeler, Craig R. Allen, Chris Barichievy, Tarsha Eason, Ahjond S. Garmestani, Nicholas A.J. Graham, Dean Granholm, Lance H. Gunderson, Melinda Knutson, Kirsty L. Nash, R. John Nelson, Magnus Nystrom, Trisha Spanbauer, Craig A. Stow, Shana M. Sundstrom
Relationships between protein-encoding gene abundance and corresponding process are commonly assumed yet rarely observed
For any enzyme-catalyzed reaction to occur, the corresponding protein-encoding genes and transcripts are necessary prerequisites. Thus, a positive relationship between the abundance of gene or transcripts and corresponding process rates is often assumed. To test this assumption, we conducted a meta-analysis of the relationships between gene and/or transcript abundances and corresponding process ra
Authors
Jennifer D. Rocca, Edward K. Hall, Jay T. Lennon, Sarah E. Evans, Mark P. Waldrop, James B. Cotner, Diana R. Nemergut, Emily B. Graham, Matthew D. Wallenstein
By
Energy and Minerals Mission Area, Climate Research and Development Program, Energy Resources Program, Land Change Science Program, Mineral Resources Program, National Laboratories Program, Science and Decisions Center, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
Making the transition to the third era of natural resources management
We are entering the third era of National Park Service (NPS) natural resources management— an era defined by rapid and unprecedented global changes. This third era promises to overturn not only some of our most fundamental assumptions about parks and protected areas, but also many of the ideals we currently hold dear. A common initial reaction to the diverse challenges of this transition is to fee
Authors
Nathan L. Stephenson