Adrian Monroe is a biologist at the Fort Collins Science Center who broadly studies wildlife and ecosystems in working landscapes.
I work to meet science needs of natural resource managers and agencies by studying effects of disturbance and management on avian population trends, demographics, and distribution, as well as restoration and ecosystem recovery. I also am interested in using simulation and hierarchical models to understand observation processes, and projecting changes in distribution of species and habitat under a changing climate.
Professional Experience
Biologist, U.S. Geological Survey, 2023-Present
Ecologist, U.S. Geological Survey, 2020-2023
Research Scientist, Colorado State University, 2016-2020
Postdoctoral Fellow, Colorado State University, 2014-2016
Education and Certifications
Ph.D., Forest Resources, Mississippi State University 2014
M.S., Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University 2010
B.S., Biology, College of William and Mary 2008
Science and Products
Gunnison Sage-grouse Prioritizing Restoration of Sagebrush Ecosystems Tool (PReSET)
Understanding How Vehicular Traffic Impacts Sage-Grouse Populations In Wyoming
Road Ecology
Prioritizing restoration and conservation of sagebrush ecosystems in northwestern Colorado
Prioritizing sagebrush protection and restoration within the upper Colorado River Basin
Prioritizing restoration and conservation of Wyoming’s sagebrush ecosystems for wildlife and sagebrush connectivity
Assessing invasive annual grass treatment efficacy across the sagebrush biome
Understanding Population Trends for the Gunnison Sage-Grouse to Inform Adaptive Management
Predicting Recovery of Sagebrush Ecosystems Across the Sage-grouse Range from Remotely Sensed Vegetation Data
Wild horse and livestock influences on vegetation and wildlife in sagebrush ecosystems: Implications for refining and validating Appropriate Management Level (AML)
Data Harmonization for Greater Sage-Grouse Populations
Modeling Songbird Density-Habitat Relationships to Predict Population Responses to Environmental Change Within Pinyon-juniper and Sagebrush Ecosystems
Data and analytical code assessing eleven songbird species' responses to environmental change during summertime (2008 - 2020) in the InterMountain West, USA
Bibliography of hydrological and ecological research in the Great Basin terminal lakes, USA
Predicted 2020 densities for 11 songbird species across the western United States
Sagebrush projections for greater sage-grouse core areas in Wyoming, USA, 2018-2100
A neutral landscape approach to evaluating the umbrella species concept for greater sage-grouse in northeast Wyoming, USA
Predicted Pinyon Jay (Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus) densities across the western United States, 2008-2020
Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) scale of effect for Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population trends in southwest Wyoming, USA 2003-2019
Trends and a Targeted Annual Warning System for Greater Sage-Grouse in the Western United States (ver. 2.0, May 2023)
U.S. range-wide spatial prediction layers of lek persistence probabilities for greater sage-grouse
Hierarchically nested and biologically relevant range-wide monitoring frameworks for greater sage-grouse, western United States
Greater sage-grouse population structure and connectivity data to inform the development of hierarchical population units (western United States)
Sagebrush recovery analyzed with a dynamic reference approach in southwestern Wyoming, USA 1985-2018
Living on the edge: Predicting songbird response to management and environmental changes across an ecotone
Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology (ASIST) pilot project progress toward an information management and technology plan
Sage-grouse
Dynamic spatiotemporal modeling of a habitat-defining plant species to support wildlife management at regional scales
Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2022
Using neutral landscape models to evaluate the umbrella species concept in an ecotone
A targeted annual warning system developed for the conservation of a sagebrush indicator species
A hidden cost of single species management: Habitat-relationships reveal potential negative effects of conifer removal on a non-target species
Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology Project—Science strategy
Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2021
Spatial scale selection for informing species conservation in a changing landscape
A regionally varying habitat model to inform management for greater sage-grouse persistence across their range
grsg_lekdb: Compiling and standardizing greater sage-grouse lek databases, version 1.2.0
popcluster: hierarchical population monitoring frameworks, Version 2.0.0
Spatial scale selection for greater sage-grouse population trends, Version 1.0.0
grsg_lekdb: Compiling and standardizing greater sage-grouse lek databases, version 1.1.0
lcp_centrality: Defining least-cost paths and graph theory centrality measures
grsg_lekdb: Compiling and standardizing greater sage-grouse lek databases
Science and Products
- Science
Filter Total Items: 25
Gunnison Sage-grouse Prioritizing Restoration of Sagebrush Ecosystems Tool (PReSET)
In partnership with the United States Fish and Wildlife Service, and other partners, scientists from USGS Fort Collins Science Center are working to create a suite of prioritization scenarios that will inform adaptive management for Gunnison sage-grouse.Understanding How Vehicular Traffic Impacts Sage-Grouse Populations In Wyoming
In 2021, the Fort Collins Science Center initiated a research effort to 1) assess how traffic in Wyoming has impacted sage-grouse population growth rates, 2) identify the spatial scales at which these effects are most evident, and 3) identify what levels of traffic result in sage-grouse population declines.Road Ecology
Roads and their associated infrastructure can cause substantial and pervasive effects on adjacent ecosystems but are necessary for the movement and redistribution of goods, people, wealth, and natural resources in modern societies. The Fort Collins Science Center has initiated research looking at how roads and traffic may be impacting sagebrush ecosystems and the wildlife inhabiting them. This...Prioritizing restoration and conservation of sagebrush ecosystems in northwestern Colorado
We are working with Colorado Parks and Wildlife (CPW) to pilot an expansion of the Prioritizing Restoration of Sagebrush Ecosystems Tool (PReSET; Duchardt et al. 2021) across northwestern Colorado. We are in the initial phase of a two-phase project where we are leveraging existing data resources to provide customized scenarios that directly guide landscape-scale conservation delivery by CPW. This...Prioritizing sagebrush protection and restoration within the upper Colorado River Basin
Arid shrublands of western North America face growing threats from disturbances such as wildfire, drought, and invasive species. These threats are increasingly altering the sagebrush (Artemisia species) biome and degrading habitat for species of conservation concern such as greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Effective management and restoration are needed to slow or reverse these...Prioritizing restoration and conservation of Wyoming’s sagebrush ecosystems for wildlife and sagebrush connectivity
To support strategic ecosystem management across the imperiled sagebrush steppe in Wyoming, USA, we developed an extension of the Prioritizing Restoration of Sagebrush Ecosystems Tool (PReSET). Our expanded tool leverages emerging spatial data resources to provide a structured but customizable set of scenarios that can guide landscape-scale planning efforts by prioritizing conservation and...Assessing invasive annual grass treatment efficacy across the sagebrush biome
We are using existing datasets that span broad spatial and temporal extents to model the efficacy of invasive annual grass treatments across the sagebrush biome and the influence of environmental factors on their success. The models we develop will be used to generate maps of predicted treatment efficacy across the biome, which will be integrated into the Land Treatment Exploration Tool for land...Understanding Population Trends for the Gunnison Sage-Grouse to Inform Adaptive Management
In partnership with the Bureau of Land Management and Colorado Parks and Wildlife, scientists from USGS Fort Collins Science Center and Western Ecological Research Center are applying a hierarchical monitoring framework to Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) to evaluate population trends and inform adaptive management.Predicting Recovery of Sagebrush Ecosystems Across the Sage-grouse Range from Remotely Sensed Vegetation Data
USGS researchers are using remote-sensing and other broadscale datasets to study and predict recovery of sagebrush across the sage-grouse range, assessing influence of disturbance, restoration treatments, soil moisture, and other ecological conditions on trends in sagebrush cover. The results will be used to inform conservation prioritization models, economic analyses, climate change projections...Wild horse and livestock influences on vegetation and wildlife in sagebrush ecosystems: Implications for refining and validating Appropriate Management Level (AML)
USGS researchers are conducting a comprehensive study of wild horse and livestock records across the greater sage-grouse range to investigate impacts on vegetation and wildlife (specifically, sage-grouse and songbirds). Researchers will use these results to evaluate Appropriate Management Levels for wild horse and burros, and projections of vegetation productivity under a changing climate.Data Harmonization for Greater Sage-Grouse Populations
Long-term wildlife monitoring is imperative for understanding population changes that can inform managers. However, working with population data collected by different organizations, across multiple jurisdictions, and over long time periods can be challenging due to different data management approaches and organizational priorities. Through this project, we aimed to collaborate with eleven state...Modeling Songbird Density-Habitat Relationships to Predict Population Responses to Environmental Change Within Pinyon-juniper and Sagebrush Ecosystems
Within areas of overlapping sagebrush and pinyon-juniper ecosystems, wildlife populations are declining due to habitat fragmentation and degradation, changing climate, and human development. However, management to bolster species associated with one ecosystem may result in negative consequences for species associated with the other. Thus, land managers are challenged with balancing which system to... - Data
Filter Total Items: 17
Data and analytical code assessing eleven songbird species' responses to environmental change during summertime (2008 - 2020) in the InterMountain West, USA
This data release provides avian data for 11 songbird species (Bewick’s wren [Thryomanes bewickii], black-throated gray warbler [Setophaga nigrescens], Brewer’s sparrow [Spizella breweri], gray flycatcher [Empidonax wrightii], gray vireo [Vireo vicinior], green-tailed towhee [Pipilo chlorurus], juniper titmouse [Baeolophus ridgwayi], loggerhead shrike [Lanius ludovicianus], sagebrush sparrow [ArteBibliography of hydrological and ecological research in the Great Basin terminal lakes, USA
This database contains literature citations and associated abstracts pertaining to the ecology and hydrology of terminal lakes in the Great Basin region of the western United States. This is not meant to be an exhaustive list, nor did we perform a systematic meta-analysis; rather, literature records were included based on topical relevance.Predicted 2020 densities for 11 songbird species across the western United States
Informed wildlife management requires robust information regarding population status, habitat requirements, and likely responses to changing resource conditions. Growing evidence indicates single species management may inadequately conserve communities and result in undesired effects to non-target species. Thus, management can benefit from habitat relationship information for multiple species withSagebrush projections for greater sage-grouse core areas in Wyoming, USA, 2018-2100
Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems provide critical habitat for the near-threatened Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), and future loss of sagebrush habitat because of land use change and global climate change is of concern. We used a dynamic additive spatio-temporal model to estimate effects of climate (spring-summer temperatures and precipitation) on sagebrush cover dynamics at 3A neutral landscape approach to evaluating the umbrella species concept for greater sage-grouse in northeast Wyoming, USA
Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) has been identified as a potential umbrella species with the assumption that conservation of their habitats in sagebrush ecosystems may benefit multiple other wildlife species, but co-occurrence with an umbrella species does not necessarily guarantee species will respond positively to management for sage-grouse. This may be particularly true for ecotPredicted Pinyon Jay (Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus) densities across the western United States, 2008-2020
Management intended to benefit a target species may also affect non-target species that co-occur over space and time. Pinyon jay (Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus) populations experienced long-term declines and rely on habitat that could be lost to conifer removal programs for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Using 13 years of point count data (2008-2020) collected across the western UnitSagebrush (Artemisia spp.) scale of effect for Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population trends in southwest Wyoming, USA 2003-2019
The distance within which populations respond to features in a landscape (scale of effect) can indicate how disturbance and management may affect wildlife. Using annual counts of male Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) attending 584 leks in southwest Wyoming (2003-2019) and estimates of sagebrush cover from the Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection (RCMAP), we usedTrends and a Targeted Annual Warning System for Greater Sage-Grouse in the Western United States (ver. 2.0, May 2023)
Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are at the center of state and national land use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. These data represent an updated population trend analysis and Targeted Annual Warning System (TAWS) for state and federal land and wildlife managers to use best-available scienceU.S. range-wide spatial prediction layers of lek persistence probabilities for greater sage-grouse
This dataset contains two predictive lek (breeding site) persistence raster layers covering the U.S. greater sage-grouse distribution. In the United States, locations where males display and breed with females (i.e., leks) are often monitored annually by state wildlife agencies, providing valuable information on the persistence of birds in the surrounding areas. A U.S. range-wide lek database wasHierarchically nested and biologically relevant range-wide monitoring frameworks for greater sage-grouse, western United States
We produced 13 hierarchically nested cluster levels that reflect the results from developing a hierarchical monitoring framework for greater sage-grouse across the western United States. Polygons (clusters) within each cluster level group a population of sage-grouse leks (sage-grouse breeding grounds) and each level increasingly groups lek clusters from previous levels. We developed the hierarchicGreater sage-grouse population structure and connectivity data to inform the development of hierarchical population units (western United States)
We present five hierarchical demarcations of greater sage-grouse population structure, representing the spatial structure of populations which can exist due to differences in dispersal abilities, landscape configurations, and mating behavior. These demarcations represent Thiessen polygons of graph constructs (least-cost path [LCP] minimum spanning trees [MST; LCP-MST]) representing greater sage-grSagebrush recovery analyzed with a dynamic reference approach in southwestern Wyoming, USA 1985-2018
Identifying ecologically relevant reference sites is important for evaluating ecosystem recovery, but the relevance of references that are temporally static is unclear in the context of vast landscapes with disturbance and environmental contexts varying over space and time. This question is pertinent for landscapes dominated by sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) which face a suite of threats from disturba - Publications
Filter Total Items: 32
Living on the edge: Predicting songbird response to management and environmental changes across an ecotone
Effective wildlife management requires robust information regarding population status, habitat requirements, and likely responses to changing resource conditions. Single-species management may inadequately conserve communities and result in undesired effects to non-target species. Thus, management can benefit from understanding habitat relationships for multiple species. Pinyon pine and juniper (PAuthorsNicholas J. Van Lanen, Adrian P. Monroe, Cameron L. AldridgeColorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology (ASIST) pilot project progress toward an information management and technology plan
Executive SummaryThe U.S. Geological Survey carries out a wide variety of multidisciplinary science projects through the Bureau’s regions, mission areas, programs, and science centers. However, this structure can limit interactions among individual scientists, segregate data holdings, and make it difficult to apply holistic, interdisciplinary science. In addition, technological advances in sensorsAuthorsEric D. Anderson, Jennifer R. Erxleben, Sharon L. Qi, Adrian P. Monroe, Katharine G. DahmSage-grouse
In this chapter, we summarize the ecology and conservation issues affecting greater (Centrocercus urophasianus) and Gunnison (C. minimus) sage-grouse, iconic and obligate species of rangelands in the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) biome in western North America. Greater sage-grouse are noted for their ability to migrate, whereas Gunnison sage-grouse localize near leks year-round. Seasonal habitats incAuthorsJeffrey L. Beck, Thomas J Christiansen, Kirk W. Davies, Jonathan B. Dinkins, Adrian P. Monroe, David E. Naugle, Michael A SchroederDynamic spatiotemporal modeling of a habitat-defining plant species to support wildlife management at regional scales
Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems provide critical habitat for the Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a species of conservation concern. Thus, future loss of sagebrush habitat because of land use change and global climate change is of concern. Here, we use a dynamic additive spatiotemporal model to estimate the effects of climate on sagebrush cover dynamics at 32 sage-grouse manaAuthorsAndrew T. Tredennick, Adrian P. Monroe, Thomas J. Prebyl, John Lombardi, Cameron L. AldridgeRange-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2022
Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are at the center of state and national land-use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides state and federal land and wildlife managers with best-available science to help guide current management and conservation plans aiAuthorsPeter S. Coates, Brian G. Prochazka, Cameron L. Aldridge, Michael S. O'Donnell, David R. Edmunds, Adrian P. Monroe, Steve E. Hanser, Lief A. Wiechman, Michael P. ChenailleUsing neutral landscape models to evaluate the umbrella species concept in an ecotone
ContextSteep declines in North American rangeland biodiversity have prompted researchers and managers to use umbrella species as a tool to manage diverse suites of co-occurring wildlife, but efficacy of this method has been variable. Evaluation of prairie and shrubland grouse as umbrellas is typically restricted to observed overlap between umbrella and background species, but this approach does noAuthorsCourtney Duchardt, Adrian P. Monroe, David R. Edmunds, Matthew James Holloran, Alison G. Holloran, Cameron L. AldridgeA targeted annual warning system developed for the conservation of a sagebrush indicator species
A fundamental goal of population ecologists is to identify drivers responsible for temporal variation in abundance. Understanding whether variation is associated with environmental stochasticity or anthropogenic disturbances, which are more amenable to management action, is crucial yet difficult to achieve. Here, we present a hierarchical monitoring framework that models rates of change in abundanAuthorsBrian G. Prochazka, Peter S. Coates, Michael O'Donnell, David R. Edmunds, Adrian P. Monroe, Mark A. Ricca, Gregory T. Wann, Steve E. Hanser, Lief A. Wiechman, Kevin E. Doherty, Michael P. Chenaille, Cameron L. AldridgeA hidden cost of single species management: Habitat-relationships reveal potential negative effects of conifer removal on a non-target species
Land management priorities and decisions may result in population declines for non-target wildlife species. In the western United States, large-scale removal of conifer from sagebrush ecosystems (Artemisia spp.) is occurring to recover greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations and may result in pinyon jay (Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus) habitat loss. Jay populations have experiencedAuthorsNicholas J. Van Lanen, Adrian P. Monroe, Cameron L. AldridgeColorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology Project—Science strategy
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts a wide variety of science that improves understanding of droughts and their effects on ecosystems and society. This work includes data collection and monitoring of aquatic and terrestrial systems; assessment and analysis of patterns, trends, drivers, and impacts of drought; development and application of predictive models; and delivery of information andAuthorsKatharine G. Dahm, Todd Hawbaker, Rebecca J. Frus, Adrian P. Monroe, John B. Bradford, William J. Andrews, Alicia Torregrosa, Eric D. Anderson, David Dean, Sharon L. QiRange-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2021
Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are at the center of state and national land use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides state and federal land and wildlife managers with best-available science to help guide current management and conservation plans aiAuthorsPeter S. Coates, Brian G. Prochazka, Cameron L. Aldridge, Michael S. O'Donnell, David R. Edmunds, Adrian P. Monroe, Steve E. Hanser, Lief A. Wiechman, Michael P. ChenailleSpatial scale selection for informing species conservation in a changing landscape
Identifying the relevant spatial scale at which species respond to features in a landscape (scale of effect) is a pressing research need as managers work to reduce biodiversity loss amid a variety of environmental challenges. Until recently, researchers often evaluated a subset of potential scales of effect inferred from previous studies in other locations, often based on different biological respAuthorsAdrian P. Monroe, Julie A. Heinrichs, Ashley Lorraine Whipple, Michael O'Donnell, David R. Edmunds, Cameron L. AldridgeA regionally varying habitat model to inform management for greater sage-grouse persistence across their range
Identifying habitat needs for species with large distributions is challenging because species-habitat associations may vary across scales and regions (spatial nonstationarity). Furthermore, management efforts often cross jurisdictional boundaries, complicating the development of cohesive conservation strategies among management entities. The greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a rapAuthorsGregory T. Wann, Nathan D. Van Schmidt, Jessica E. Shyvers, Bryan C. Tarbox, Megan M. McLachlan, Michael O'Donnell, Anthony J Titolo, Peter S. Coates, David R. Edmunds, Julie A. Heinrichs, Adrian P. Monroe, Cameron L. Aldridge - Software
grsg_lekdb: Compiling and standardizing greater sage-grouse lek databases, version 1.2.0
Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter referred to as sage-grouse) are landscape-scale sagebrush obligate species and an important gamebird and iconic species of the West (Hanser & Knick, 2011; Rowland et al., 2006). They occupy the sagebrush biome in western North America, extending east of the Sierra Nevada/Cascade Mountain ranges to the western regions of the Great Plains ofpopcluster: hierarchical population monitoring frameworks, Version 2.0.0
We developed a method to construct hierarchically nested and biologically relevant groupings of similar habitats associated with field surveys while considering structure/connectedness (movements between habitats). This approach can support mobile species using high fidelity sites where monitoring during surveys occurs, such as birthing grounds, breeding grounds, or stopovers/seasonal habitats forSpatial scale selection for greater sage-grouse population trends, Version 1.0.0
The distance within which populations respond to features in a landscape (scale of effect) can indicate how disturbance and management may affect wildlife. Using annual counts of male greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) attending 584 leks in southwest Wyoming (2003-2019) and estimates of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) cover from a remote sensing product (Rigge et al., 2021; Monroe et al.,grsg_lekdb: Compiling and standardizing greater sage-grouse lek databases, version 1.1.0
Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are landscape-scale sagebrush obligate species and an important gamebird and iconic species of the western United States. They occupy the sagebrush biome in western North America, extending east of the Sierra Nevada/Cascade Mountain ranges to the western regions of the Great Plains of the United States. Sage-grouse are one of the most closely monitorlcp_centrality: Defining least-cost paths and graph theory centrality measures
We present software that creates least-cost path spanning trees, a least-cost path minimum spanning tree, and graph theory centrality measures. The software was developed to support identification of population structures--specifically, greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), but also support other species or graph theory applications where least-cost paths are desired. We used habitat pagrsg_lekdb: Compiling and standardizing greater sage-grouse lek databases
Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are landscape-scale sagebrush obligate species and an important gamebird and iconic species of the western United States. They occupy the sagebrush biome in western North America, extending east of the Sierra Nevada/Cascade Mountain ranges to the western regions of the Great Plains of the United States. Sage-grouse are one of the most closely monitor - News