Jason Kean
My research focuses on the processes controlling debris-flow initiation and growth, particularly after wildfire, but also in unburned areas.
This research includes a field component that obtains direct measurements of debris flows in natural settings, a modeling component that seeks to explain the observations, and an applied component that focuses on assessment of debris-flow hazards. My previous research at the USGS focused on river mechanics, including bank erosion and the development of model-based approaches to gage streams and rivers.
Education and Certifications
University of Colorado, Ph.D., 2003, Civil Engineering
University of Colorado, M.S., 1998, Civil Engineering
Cornell University, B.S., 1994, Civil Engineering
Science and Products
Postfire debris-flow hazards
Wildfires can significantly alter the way water interacts with the landscape to the extent that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. Recent fires in the western U.S. have impacted hundreds of thousands of acres of steep land, much of it public, making it susceptible to increased erosion and debris-flow activity. With the risk of severe wildfires continuing to...
2009 Station Fire, Dunsmore Canyon, Glendale, California
In 2009, the Station Fire burned 160,000 acres in the San Gabriel Mountains. Vegetation has started to return, but it can take many years for a basin to fully recover from the effects of fire.
Reconstruction of an Avalanche: The West Salt Creek Rock Avalanche
Release Date: MAY 25, 2016 The West Salt Creek Rock Avalanche, Colorado, May 25, 2014
Rainfall and Landslides in Southern California
A summary of recent and past landslides and debris flows caused by rainfall in Southern California.
Filter Total Items: 29
Rainfall, Video, and Geophone Data from the Hermit's Peak/ Calf Canyon Fire Burn Area, New Mexico, June 2022 to June 2024 Rainfall, Video, and Geophone Data from the Hermit's Peak/ Calf Canyon Fire Burn Area, New Mexico, June 2022 to June 2024
Precipitation, volumetric soil-water content, videos, and geophone data characterizing postfire debris flows were collected at the 2022 Hermit’s Peak Calf-Canyon Fire in New Mexico. This dataset contains data from June 22, 2022, to June 26, 2024. The data were obtained from a station located at 35° 42’ 28.86” N, 105° 27’ 18.03” W (geographic coordinate system). Each data type is...
Inventory of debris flows in burned (2020-2022) and unburned (1995-2020) areas in the western Cascade Range of Oregon Inventory of debris flows in burned (2020-2022) and unburned (1995-2020) areas in the western Cascade Range of Oregon
This data release contains two debris-flow inventories summarizing observations from burned and unburned areas in the western Cascade Range of Oregon (OR). The burned inventory focuses on debris flows that occurred during the first two years after the 2020 Archie Creek, Holiday Farm, Beachie Creek/Lionshead, and Riverside fires (OR_field_observations.csv). The unburned inventory (1995...
Postfire erosion estimates for large California wildfires that occurred between 1984 and 2021 Postfire erosion estimates for large California wildfires that occurred between 1984 and 2021
This data release presents a compilation of postfire sediment mobilization data from wildfires greater than 100 km2 that occurred in California or regions of southern Oregon that drain to the California coast between 1984 and 2021. This compilation includes three sources of sediment mobilization data: hillslope erosion modeled using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) postfire...
International compilation of peak discharge estimates of floods and runoff-generated debris flows, 1931-2023 International compilation of peak discharge estimates of floods and runoff-generated debris flows, 1931-2023
This data release contains an international compilation of 656 peak discharge estimates of floods and runoff-generated debris flows. The data (“DimensionlessDischarge.csv” and “CrossSections.csv”) were obtained from the literature and measured in the study Cavagnaro and others (2024). The dataset also includes information about flow depth, flow type (flood or debris flow), flow cross...
Debris Flow, Precipitation, and Volume Measurements in the Grizzly Creek Burn Perimeter June 2021-September 2022, Glenwood Canyon, Colorado (ver. 1.1, October 2023) Debris Flow, Precipitation, and Volume Measurements in the Grizzly Creek Burn Perimeter June 2021-September 2022, Glenwood Canyon, Colorado (ver. 1.1, October 2023)
This data release contains data summarizing observations within and adjacent to the Grizzly Creek Fire, which burned from 10 August to 18 December 2020. This monitoring data summarizes precipitation, observations of debris flows, and the volume of sediment eroded during debris flows triggered during the summer monsoonal period in 2021 and 2022. Summary rainfall data 2021 (1a_Storm_matrix...
Modeling data for burn severity of the East Troublesome and Grizzly Creek for integration with post-fire debris flow in the upper Colorado River basin, USA Modeling data for burn severity of the East Troublesome and Grizzly Creek for integration with post-fire debris flow in the upper Colorado River basin, USA
These data were compiled for/to provide an example and assess methods and results of pre-fire estimation of predicted differenced normalized burn ration (dNBR) for predicting post-fire debris flow hazard classification. Objective(s) of our study were to develop predictive models for burn severity, using variables of pre-fire conditions, for two large wildfires from 2020 in Colorado, USA...
Filter Total Items: 97
A robust quantitative method to distinguish runoff-generated debris flows from floods A robust quantitative method to distinguish runoff-generated debris flows from floods
Debris flows and floods generated by rainfall runoff occur in rocky mountainous landscapes and burned steeplands. Flow type is commonly identified post-event through interpretation of depositional structures, but these may be poorly preserved or misinterpreted. Prior research indicates that discharge magnitude is commonly amplified in debris flows relative to floods due to volumetric...
Authors
David B. Cavagnaro, Scott W. McCoy, Jason W. Kean, Matthew A. Thomas, Donald N. Lindsay, Brian W. McArdell, Jacob Hirschberg
Evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow rainfall thresholds and volume models at the 2020 Grizzly Creek Fire in Glenwood Canyon, Colorado, USA Evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow rainfall thresholds and volume models at the 2020 Grizzly Creek Fire in Glenwood Canyon, Colorado, USA
As wildfire increases in the western United States, so do postfire debris-flow hazards. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed two separate models to estimate (1) rainfall intensity thresholds for postfire debris-flow initiation and (2) debris-flow volumes. However, the information necessary to test the accuracy of these models is seldom available. Here, we studied how well...
Authors
Francis K. Rengers, Samuel Bower, Andrew Knapp, Jason W. Kean, Danielle W. vonLembke, Matthew A. Thomas, Jaime Kostelnik, Katherine R. Barnhart, Matthew Bethel, Joseph E. Gartner, Madeline Hille, Dennis M. Staley, Justin K. Anderson, Elizabeth K. Roberts, Stephen B. DeLong, Belize Lane, Paxton Ridgeway, Brendan Murphy
Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows
Short-duration, high-intensity rainfall can initiate deadly and destructive debris flows after wildfire. Methods to estimate the conditions that can trigger debris flows exist and guidance to determine how often those thresholds will be exceeded under the present climate are available. However, the limited spatiotemporal resolution of climate models has hampered efforts to characterize...
Authors
Matthew A. Thomas, Allison C. Michaelis, Nina S. Oakley, Jason W. Kean, Victor A. Gensini, Walker S. Ashley
Evaluation of debris-flow building damage forecasts Evaluation of debris-flow building damage forecasts
Reliable forecasts of building damage due to debris flows may provide situational awareness and guide land and emergency management decisions. Application of debris-flow runout models to generate such forecasts requires combining hazard intensity predictions with fragility functions that link hazard intensity with building damage. In this study, we evaluated the performance of building...
Authors
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, Jason W. Kean
Post-wildfire debris flows Post-wildfire debris flows
Post-wildfire debris flows pose severe hazards to communities and infrastructure near and within recently burned mountainous terrain. Intense heat of wildfires changes the runoff characteristics of a watershed by combusting the vegetative canopy, litter, and duff, introducing ash into the soil and creating water repellant soils. Following wildfire, rainfall on bare ground is less able to
Authors
Joseph Gartner, Jason W. Kean, Francis K. Rengers, Scott W. McCoy, Nina S. Oakley, Gary J. Sheridan
How long do runoff-generated debris-flow hazards persist after wildfire? How long do runoff-generated debris-flow hazards persist after wildfire?
Runoff-generated debris flows are a potentially destructive and deadly response to wildfire until sufficient vegetation and soil-hydraulic recovery have reduced susceptibility to the hazard. Elevated debris-flow susceptibility may persist for several years, but the controls on the timespan of the susceptible period are poorly understood. To evaluate the connection between vegetation...
Authors
Andrew Paul Graber, Matthew A. Thomas, Jason W. Kean
Science and Products
Postfire debris-flow hazards
Wildfires can significantly alter the way water interacts with the landscape to the extent that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. Recent fires in the western U.S. have impacted hundreds of thousands of acres of steep land, much of it public, making it susceptible to increased erosion and debris-flow activity. With the risk of severe wildfires continuing to...
2009 Station Fire, Dunsmore Canyon, Glendale, California
In 2009, the Station Fire burned 160,000 acres in the San Gabriel Mountains. Vegetation has started to return, but it can take many years for a basin to fully recover from the effects of fire.
Reconstruction of an Avalanche: The West Salt Creek Rock Avalanche
Release Date: MAY 25, 2016 The West Salt Creek Rock Avalanche, Colorado, May 25, 2014
Rainfall and Landslides in Southern California
A summary of recent and past landslides and debris flows caused by rainfall in Southern California.
Filter Total Items: 29
Rainfall, Video, and Geophone Data from the Hermit's Peak/ Calf Canyon Fire Burn Area, New Mexico, June 2022 to June 2024 Rainfall, Video, and Geophone Data from the Hermit's Peak/ Calf Canyon Fire Burn Area, New Mexico, June 2022 to June 2024
Precipitation, volumetric soil-water content, videos, and geophone data characterizing postfire debris flows were collected at the 2022 Hermit’s Peak Calf-Canyon Fire in New Mexico. This dataset contains data from June 22, 2022, to June 26, 2024. The data were obtained from a station located at 35° 42’ 28.86” N, 105° 27’ 18.03” W (geographic coordinate system). Each data type is...
Inventory of debris flows in burned (2020-2022) and unburned (1995-2020) areas in the western Cascade Range of Oregon Inventory of debris flows in burned (2020-2022) and unburned (1995-2020) areas in the western Cascade Range of Oregon
This data release contains two debris-flow inventories summarizing observations from burned and unburned areas in the western Cascade Range of Oregon (OR). The burned inventory focuses on debris flows that occurred during the first two years after the 2020 Archie Creek, Holiday Farm, Beachie Creek/Lionshead, and Riverside fires (OR_field_observations.csv). The unburned inventory (1995...
Postfire erosion estimates for large California wildfires that occurred between 1984 and 2021 Postfire erosion estimates for large California wildfires that occurred between 1984 and 2021
This data release presents a compilation of postfire sediment mobilization data from wildfires greater than 100 km2 that occurred in California or regions of southern Oregon that drain to the California coast between 1984 and 2021. This compilation includes three sources of sediment mobilization data: hillslope erosion modeled using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) postfire...
International compilation of peak discharge estimates of floods and runoff-generated debris flows, 1931-2023 International compilation of peak discharge estimates of floods and runoff-generated debris flows, 1931-2023
This data release contains an international compilation of 656 peak discharge estimates of floods and runoff-generated debris flows. The data (“DimensionlessDischarge.csv” and “CrossSections.csv”) were obtained from the literature and measured in the study Cavagnaro and others (2024). The dataset also includes information about flow depth, flow type (flood or debris flow), flow cross...
Debris Flow, Precipitation, and Volume Measurements in the Grizzly Creek Burn Perimeter June 2021-September 2022, Glenwood Canyon, Colorado (ver. 1.1, October 2023) Debris Flow, Precipitation, and Volume Measurements in the Grizzly Creek Burn Perimeter June 2021-September 2022, Glenwood Canyon, Colorado (ver. 1.1, October 2023)
This data release contains data summarizing observations within and adjacent to the Grizzly Creek Fire, which burned from 10 August to 18 December 2020. This monitoring data summarizes precipitation, observations of debris flows, and the volume of sediment eroded during debris flows triggered during the summer monsoonal period in 2021 and 2022. Summary rainfall data 2021 (1a_Storm_matrix...
Modeling data for burn severity of the East Troublesome and Grizzly Creek for integration with post-fire debris flow in the upper Colorado River basin, USA Modeling data for burn severity of the East Troublesome and Grizzly Creek for integration with post-fire debris flow in the upper Colorado River basin, USA
These data were compiled for/to provide an example and assess methods and results of pre-fire estimation of predicted differenced normalized burn ration (dNBR) for predicting post-fire debris flow hazard classification. Objective(s) of our study were to develop predictive models for burn severity, using variables of pre-fire conditions, for two large wildfires from 2020 in Colorado, USA...
Filter Total Items: 97
A robust quantitative method to distinguish runoff-generated debris flows from floods A robust quantitative method to distinguish runoff-generated debris flows from floods
Debris flows and floods generated by rainfall runoff occur in rocky mountainous landscapes and burned steeplands. Flow type is commonly identified post-event through interpretation of depositional structures, but these may be poorly preserved or misinterpreted. Prior research indicates that discharge magnitude is commonly amplified in debris flows relative to floods due to volumetric...
Authors
David B. Cavagnaro, Scott W. McCoy, Jason W. Kean, Matthew A. Thomas, Donald N. Lindsay, Brian W. McArdell, Jacob Hirschberg
Evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow rainfall thresholds and volume models at the 2020 Grizzly Creek Fire in Glenwood Canyon, Colorado, USA Evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow rainfall thresholds and volume models at the 2020 Grizzly Creek Fire in Glenwood Canyon, Colorado, USA
As wildfire increases in the western United States, so do postfire debris-flow hazards. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed two separate models to estimate (1) rainfall intensity thresholds for postfire debris-flow initiation and (2) debris-flow volumes. However, the information necessary to test the accuracy of these models is seldom available. Here, we studied how well...
Authors
Francis K. Rengers, Samuel Bower, Andrew Knapp, Jason W. Kean, Danielle W. vonLembke, Matthew A. Thomas, Jaime Kostelnik, Katherine R. Barnhart, Matthew Bethel, Joseph E. Gartner, Madeline Hille, Dennis M. Staley, Justin K. Anderson, Elizabeth K. Roberts, Stephen B. DeLong, Belize Lane, Paxton Ridgeway, Brendan Murphy
Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows
Short-duration, high-intensity rainfall can initiate deadly and destructive debris flows after wildfire. Methods to estimate the conditions that can trigger debris flows exist and guidance to determine how often those thresholds will be exceeded under the present climate are available. However, the limited spatiotemporal resolution of climate models has hampered efforts to characterize...
Authors
Matthew A. Thomas, Allison C. Michaelis, Nina S. Oakley, Jason W. Kean, Victor A. Gensini, Walker S. Ashley
Evaluation of debris-flow building damage forecasts Evaluation of debris-flow building damage forecasts
Reliable forecasts of building damage due to debris flows may provide situational awareness and guide land and emergency management decisions. Application of debris-flow runout models to generate such forecasts requires combining hazard intensity predictions with fragility functions that link hazard intensity with building damage. In this study, we evaluated the performance of building...
Authors
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, Jason W. Kean
Post-wildfire debris flows Post-wildfire debris flows
Post-wildfire debris flows pose severe hazards to communities and infrastructure near and within recently burned mountainous terrain. Intense heat of wildfires changes the runoff characteristics of a watershed by combusting the vegetative canopy, litter, and duff, introducing ash into the soil and creating water repellant soils. Following wildfire, rainfall on bare ground is less able to
Authors
Joseph Gartner, Jason W. Kean, Francis K. Rengers, Scott W. McCoy, Nina S. Oakley, Gary J. Sheridan
How long do runoff-generated debris-flow hazards persist after wildfire? How long do runoff-generated debris-flow hazards persist after wildfire?
Runoff-generated debris flows are a potentially destructive and deadly response to wildfire until sufficient vegetation and soil-hydraulic recovery have reduced susceptibility to the hazard. Elevated debris-flow susceptibility may persist for several years, but the controls on the timespan of the susceptible period are poorly understood. To evaluate the connection between vegetation...
Authors
Andrew Paul Graber, Matthew A. Thomas, Jason W. Kean