Li Erikson
Research Oceanographer at the USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 21
CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California
CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).
CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay
With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).
CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)
Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.
Climate impacts to Arctic coasts, recent activities
USGS activities related to the project, "Climate Impacts to Arctic Coasts."
San Francisco Bay Basic Tide Model
This web page provides files that may be used to run a basic depth-averaged (2DH) Deltares Delft3D version 4.00.01 astronomic tide model for San Francisco Bay. It was developed with the primary aim of assessing water level fluctuations and flow conditions in the vicinity of the Golden Gate (Elias and Hansen 2013).
Using Video Imagery to Study Coastal Change: Barter Island, Alaska
For a short study period, two video cameras overlooked the coast from atop the coastal bluff of Barter Island in northern Alaska. The purpose was to observe and quantify coastal processes such as wave run-up, development of rip channels, bluff erosion, and movement of sandbars and ice floes.
Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay
The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).
PS-CoSMoS FAQs PS-CoSMoS FAQs
Puget Sound - Coastal Storm Modeling System (PS-CoSMoS) frequently asked questions
CoSMoS 1.0: Southern California
CoSMoS was initially developed and tested for the Southern California coast in collaboration with Deltares. CoSMoS has been used to assess coastal vulnerability within Southern California for the ARkStorm scenario, the January 2010 El Niño and Sea-Level Rise scenarios, and the January 2005 Newport Harbor Flood scenario.
Filter Total Items: 31
Projections of shoreline change for California due to 21st century sea-level rise Projections of shoreline change for California due to 21st century sea-level rise
This dataset contains projections of shoreline change and uncertainty bands across California for future scenarios of sea-level rise (SLR). Projections were made using the Coastal Storm Modeling System - Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool (CoSMoS-COAST), a numerical model run in an ensemble forced with global-to-local nested wave models and assimilated with satellite-derived...
Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast
This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms for three States (Florida, Georgia, and Virginia) along the Atlantic coast of the United States. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available science and with enough resolution to support a suite of...
Future coastal hazards along the U.S. North and South Carolina coasts Future coastal hazards along the U.S. North and South Carolina coasts
This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms along the North and South Carolina coast. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available, science and with enough resolution to support a suite of different planning horizons. The storm scenarios are...
Hydrographic and sediment field data collected in the vicinity of Wainwright, Alaska, in 2009 Hydrographic and sediment field data collected in the vicinity of Wainwright, Alaska, in 2009
This dataset consists of hydrographic, geomorphic, and sediment field measurements obtained during the ice-free summer of 2009 in the vicinity of Wainwright, Alaska. Time-series data were collected with a bottom-mounted instrument package and consist of wave statistics, vertical water flow velocity profiles, water temperatures, conductivity, and salinity concentrations. Data collected at...
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Northern California 3.2 (ver. 1h, December 2025) Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Northern California 3.2 (ver. 1h, December 2025)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future scenarios. CoSMoS 3.2 for Northern California shows projections for future scenarios (sea-level change and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical...
Ocean wave time-series data simulated with a global-scale numerical wave model under the influence of historical and projected CMIP6 wind and sea ice fields (ver. 2.0, October 2024) Ocean wave time-series data simulated with a global-scale numerical wave model under the influence of historical and projected CMIP6 wind and sea ice fields (ver. 2.0, October 2024)
Hourly time-series of waves at the 20m, 50m, and 100m isobaths, along all U.S. open coasts for the historical (1979-2014) and projected (2020-2050) period: Those data (estimates of historical and long-term future conditions) were developed by running the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) WaveWatch3 wave model forced with winds and sea ice extents from four separate...
Wave model results of the central Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska Wave model results of the central Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska
A three-level SWAN (version 41.31) nesting grid has been developed for the central Beaufort Sea coast to simulate waves over the hindcast period 1979 - 2019. The model includes the implementations of sea ice by Rogers (2019) and includes both 1) a dissipation source term and 2) a scaling of wind input source as functions by sea ice. The bathymetric dataset used for the model is the...
Historical shorelines and morphological metrics for barrier islands and spits along the north coast of Alaska between Cape Beaufort and the U.S.-Canadian border, 1947 to 2019 Historical shorelines and morphological metrics for barrier islands and spits along the north coast of Alaska between Cape Beaufort and the U.S.-Canadian border, 1947 to 2019
A suite of morphological metrics were derived from existing shoreline and elevation datasets for barrier islands and spits located along the north-slope coast of Alaska between Cape Beaufort and the U.S.-Canadian border. This dataset includes barrier shorelines and polygons attributed with morphological metrics from five time periods: 1950s, 1980s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s.
Nearshore bathymetry data from the Unalakleet River mouth, Alaska, 2019 Nearshore bathymetry data from the Unalakleet River mouth, Alaska, 2019
This data release presents nearshore bathymetry data collected at the mouth of the Unalakleet River in Alaska, near the city of Unalakleet. The data were collected in August 2019 by the U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center. Nearshore bathymetry was measured along survey lines from the shore to a depth of approximately -7.4 m NAVD88 and in a portion of the...
Hydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Bay and Delta, California Hydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Bay and Delta, California
A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Bay and Delta was constructed using the Delft3D Flexible Mesh (DFM) modeling suite (www.deltares.nl/en/software/delft3d-flexible-mesh-suite/) to simulate water levels. Required model input files are provided to run the model for the time period from October 1, 2018, to April 30, 2019. This data release describes the construction...
Modeled extreme total water levels along the U.S. west coast Modeled extreme total water levels along the U.S. west coast
This dataset contains information on the probabilities of storm-induced erosion (collision, inundation and overwash) for each 100-meter (m) section of the United States Pacific coast for return period storm scenarios. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast...
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Central California, v3.1 Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Central California, v3.1
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.1 for Central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and...
Filter Total Items: 87
Global projections of storm surges using high-resolution CMIP6 climate models Global projections of storm surges using high-resolution CMIP6 climate models
In the coming decades, coastal flooding will become more frequent due to sea-level rise and potential changes in storms. To produce global storm surge projections from 1950 to 2050, we force the Global Tide and Surge Model with a ∼25-km resolution climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). This...
Authors
Sanne Muis, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jose A. A. Antolinez, Job C. Dullaart, Trang Minh Duong, Li H. Erikson, Rein J. Haarsma, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Matthias Mengel, Dewi Le Bars, Andrea C. O'Neill, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Malcolm J. Roberts, Martin Verlaan, Philip J. Ward, Kun Yan
A model integrating satellite-derived shoreline observations for predicting fine-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise across large coastal regions A model integrating satellite-derived shoreline observations for predicting fine-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise across large coastal regions
Satellite-derived shoreline observations combined with dynamic shoreline models enable fine-scale predictions of coastal change across large spatiotemporal scales. Here, we present a satellite-data-assimilated, “littoral-cell”-based, ensemble Kalman-filter shoreline model to predict coastal change and uncertainty due to waves, sea-level rise (SLR), and other natural and anthropogenic...
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Kilian Vos, Kristen D. Splinter, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard
Barrier island reconfiguration leads to rapid erosion and relocation of a rural Alaska community Barrier island reconfiguration leads to rapid erosion and relocation of a rural Alaska community
Coastal erosion is one of the foremost hazards that circumpolar communities face. Climate change and warming temperatures are anticipated to accelerate coastal change, increasing risk to coastal communities. Most erosion hazard studies for Alaska communities only consider linear erosion and do not anticipate coastal morphologic changes. This study showcases the possibility and...
Authors
Richard M. Buzard, Nicole E.M. Kinsman, Christopher V. Maio, Li H. Erikson, Benjamin M. Jones, Scott K. Anderson, Roberta Glenn, Jacquelyn R. Overbeck
Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast
A 38-year hindcast water level product is developed for the U.S. Southeast Atlantic coastline from the entrance of Chesapeake Bay to the southeast tip of Florida. The water level modelling framework utilized in this study combines a global-scale hydrodynamic model (Global Tide and Surge Model, GTSM-ERA5), a novel ensemble-based tide model, a parameterized wave setup model, and...
Authors
Kai Alexander Parker, Li H. Erikson, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Patrick L. Barnard, Sanne Muis
Rapid modeling of compound flooding across broad coastal regions and the necessity to include rainfall driven processes: A case study of Hurricane Florence (2018) Rapid modeling of compound flooding across broad coastal regions and the necessity to include rainfall driven processes: A case study of Hurricane Florence (2018)
In this work, we show that large-scale compound flood models developed for North and South Carolina, USA, can skillfully simulate multiple drivers of coastal flooding as confirmed by measurements collected during Hurricane Florence (2018). Besides the accuracy of representing observed water levels, the importance of individual processes was investigated. We demonstrate that across the...
Authors
Tim Leijnse, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Kai Alexander Parker, Maarten van Ormondt, Li H. Erikson, Robert T. McCall, Ap van Dongeren, Andrea C. O'Neill, Patrick L. Barnard
Numerical model characterization of sediment transport potentials pre- and post-construction of an artificial island in Foggy Island Bay, Alaska Numerical model characterization of sediment transport potentials pre- and post-construction of an artificial island in Foggy Island Bay, Alaska
The anticipated construction of the Liberty Development Island near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, has created a need to understand how the island may influence sediment transport patterns and deposition on the nearby Boulder Patch ecosystem. This study uses a numerical model to characterize sediment transport pathways in Foggy Island Bay with and without the artificial island in place. We present...
Authors
Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Li H. Erikson, Anita C Engelstad, Stuart Pearson
Barrier islands and spits of northern Alaska: Decadal scale morphological change Barrier islands and spits of northern Alaska: Decadal scale morphological change
Arctic barrier islands and spits are dynamic features influenced by a variety of oceanographic, geologic, and environmental factors. Many serve as habitat and protection for native species and shelter the coast from waves and storms that can flood and erode the adjacent mainland. This paper summarizes results of a study documenting changes to barrier morphology along the North Slope...
Authors
Ann E. Gibbs, Li H. Erikson, Anna I Hamilton
Central Beaufort Sea Wave and Hydrodynamic Modeling Study; Report 2: Modeled waves, hydrodynamics, and sediment transport within Foggy Island Bay Central Beaufort Sea Wave and Hydrodynamic Modeling Study; Report 2: Modeled waves, hydrodynamics, and sediment transport within Foggy Island Bay
Renewed interest in nearshore oil exploration and production in the shallow waters of the Central Beaufort Sea Shelf has created a need to advance our understanding of the past, current, and future atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that affect existing and planned infrastructure and nearshore ecosystems. At the time of writing this report, Hilcorp Alaska LLC has received BOEM...
Authors
Li H. Erikson, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Anita C Engelstad, Jeremy L. Kasper, Peter A. Bieniek
Central Beaufort Sea Wave and Hydrodynamic Modeling Study--Report 1: Field measurements and model development Central Beaufort Sea Wave and Hydrodynamic Modeling Study--Report 1: Field measurements and model development
Renewed interest in nearshore oil exploration and production in the shallow waters of the Central Beaufort Sea Shelf has created a need to advance our understanding of the past, current, and future atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that affect existing and planned infrastructure and nearshore ecosystems. At the time of writing this report, Hilcorp Alaska, LLC, has received BOEM...
Authors
Jeremy L. Kasper, Li H. Erikson, Thomas M. Ravens, Peter A. Bieniek, Anita C Engelstad, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Paul X. Duvoy, Stephanie Fisher, Eloise Petrone Brown, Yaman Man, Borja Reguero
Global ocean wave fields show consistent regional trends between 1980 and 2014 in a multi-product ensemble Global ocean wave fields show consistent regional trends between 1980 and 2014 in a multi-product ensemble
Historical trends in the direction and magnitude of ocean surface wave height, period, or direction are debated due to diverse data, time-periods, or methodologies. Using a consistent community-driven ensemble of global wave products, we quantify and establish regions with robust trends in global multivariate wave fields between 1980 and 2014. We find that about 30–40% of the global...
Authors
Li H. Erikson, J. Morim, M. Hemer, Ian Young, X. Wang, L. Mentaschi, N. Mori, A. Semedo, Justin Stopa, V Grigorieva, S. Gulev, O. Aarnes, J-R Bidlot, O. Breivik, P. Bricheno, P. Camus, T. Shimura, M. Menendez, M. Markina, V.D. Sharmar, C. Trenham, J.F. Wolf, C. Appendini, S. Caires, N. Groll, A. Webb
Atmospheric circulation drivers of extreme high water level events at Foggy Island Bay, Alaska Atmospheric circulation drivers of extreme high water level events at Foggy Island Bay, Alaska
The northern coast of Alaska is experiencing significant climatic change enhancing hazards from reduced sea ice and increased coastal erosion. This same region is home to offshore oil/gas activities. Foggy Island Bay is one region along the Beaufort Sea coast with planned offshore oil/gas development that will need to account for the changing climate. High water levels impact...
Authors
Peter A. Bieniek, Li H. Erikson, Jeremy L. Kasper
Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast
Traditional methods to assess the probability of storm-induced erosion and flooding from extreme water levels have limited use along the U.S. West Coast where swell dominates erosion and storm surge is limited. This effort presents methodology to assess the probability of erosion and flooding for the U.S. West Coast from extreme total water levels (TWLs), but the approach is applicable...
Authors
James B. Shope, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Curt D. Storlazzi, Katherine A. Serafin, Kara S. Doran, Hilary F. Stockdon, Borja G. Reguero, Fernando J. Mendez, Sonia Castanedo, Alba Cid, Laura Cagigal, Peter Ruggiero
Filter Total Items: 20
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 21
CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California
CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).
CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay
With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).
CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)
Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.
Climate impacts to Arctic coasts, recent activities
USGS activities related to the project, "Climate Impacts to Arctic Coasts."
San Francisco Bay Basic Tide Model
This web page provides files that may be used to run a basic depth-averaged (2DH) Deltares Delft3D version 4.00.01 astronomic tide model for San Francisco Bay. It was developed with the primary aim of assessing water level fluctuations and flow conditions in the vicinity of the Golden Gate (Elias and Hansen 2013).
Using Video Imagery to Study Coastal Change: Barter Island, Alaska
For a short study period, two video cameras overlooked the coast from atop the coastal bluff of Barter Island in northern Alaska. The purpose was to observe and quantify coastal processes such as wave run-up, development of rip channels, bluff erosion, and movement of sandbars and ice floes.
Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay
The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).
PS-CoSMoS FAQs PS-CoSMoS FAQs
Puget Sound - Coastal Storm Modeling System (PS-CoSMoS) frequently asked questions
CoSMoS 1.0: Southern California
CoSMoS was initially developed and tested for the Southern California coast in collaboration with Deltares. CoSMoS has been used to assess coastal vulnerability within Southern California for the ARkStorm scenario, the January 2010 El Niño and Sea-Level Rise scenarios, and the January 2005 Newport Harbor Flood scenario.
Filter Total Items: 31
Projections of shoreline change for California due to 21st century sea-level rise Projections of shoreline change for California due to 21st century sea-level rise
This dataset contains projections of shoreline change and uncertainty bands across California for future scenarios of sea-level rise (SLR). Projections were made using the Coastal Storm Modeling System - Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool (CoSMoS-COAST), a numerical model run in an ensemble forced with global-to-local nested wave models and assimilated with satellite-derived...
Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast
This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms for three States (Florida, Georgia, and Virginia) along the Atlantic coast of the United States. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available science and with enough resolution to support a suite of...
Future coastal hazards along the U.S. North and South Carolina coasts Future coastal hazards along the U.S. North and South Carolina coasts
This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms along the North and South Carolina coast. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available, science and with enough resolution to support a suite of different planning horizons. The storm scenarios are...
Hydrographic and sediment field data collected in the vicinity of Wainwright, Alaska, in 2009 Hydrographic and sediment field data collected in the vicinity of Wainwright, Alaska, in 2009
This dataset consists of hydrographic, geomorphic, and sediment field measurements obtained during the ice-free summer of 2009 in the vicinity of Wainwright, Alaska. Time-series data were collected with a bottom-mounted instrument package and consist of wave statistics, vertical water flow velocity profiles, water temperatures, conductivity, and salinity concentrations. Data collected at...
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Northern California 3.2 (ver. 1h, December 2025) Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Northern California 3.2 (ver. 1h, December 2025)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future scenarios. CoSMoS 3.2 for Northern California shows projections for future scenarios (sea-level change and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical...
Ocean wave time-series data simulated with a global-scale numerical wave model under the influence of historical and projected CMIP6 wind and sea ice fields (ver. 2.0, October 2024) Ocean wave time-series data simulated with a global-scale numerical wave model under the influence of historical and projected CMIP6 wind and sea ice fields (ver. 2.0, October 2024)
Hourly time-series of waves at the 20m, 50m, and 100m isobaths, along all U.S. open coasts for the historical (1979-2014) and projected (2020-2050) period: Those data (estimates of historical and long-term future conditions) were developed by running the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) WaveWatch3 wave model forced with winds and sea ice extents from four separate...
Wave model results of the central Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska Wave model results of the central Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska
A three-level SWAN (version 41.31) nesting grid has been developed for the central Beaufort Sea coast to simulate waves over the hindcast period 1979 - 2019. The model includes the implementations of sea ice by Rogers (2019) and includes both 1) a dissipation source term and 2) a scaling of wind input source as functions by sea ice. The bathymetric dataset used for the model is the...
Historical shorelines and morphological metrics for barrier islands and spits along the north coast of Alaska between Cape Beaufort and the U.S.-Canadian border, 1947 to 2019 Historical shorelines and morphological metrics for barrier islands and spits along the north coast of Alaska between Cape Beaufort and the U.S.-Canadian border, 1947 to 2019
A suite of morphological metrics were derived from existing shoreline and elevation datasets for barrier islands and spits located along the north-slope coast of Alaska between Cape Beaufort and the U.S.-Canadian border. This dataset includes barrier shorelines and polygons attributed with morphological metrics from five time periods: 1950s, 1980s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s.
Nearshore bathymetry data from the Unalakleet River mouth, Alaska, 2019 Nearshore bathymetry data from the Unalakleet River mouth, Alaska, 2019
This data release presents nearshore bathymetry data collected at the mouth of the Unalakleet River in Alaska, near the city of Unalakleet. The data were collected in August 2019 by the U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center. Nearshore bathymetry was measured along survey lines from the shore to a depth of approximately -7.4 m NAVD88 and in a portion of the...
Hydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Bay and Delta, California Hydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Bay and Delta, California
A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Bay and Delta was constructed using the Delft3D Flexible Mesh (DFM) modeling suite (www.deltares.nl/en/software/delft3d-flexible-mesh-suite/) to simulate water levels. Required model input files are provided to run the model for the time period from October 1, 2018, to April 30, 2019. This data release describes the construction...
Modeled extreme total water levels along the U.S. west coast Modeled extreme total water levels along the U.S. west coast
This dataset contains information on the probabilities of storm-induced erosion (collision, inundation and overwash) for each 100-meter (m) section of the United States Pacific coast for return period storm scenarios. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast...
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Central California, v3.1 Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Central California, v3.1
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.1 for Central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and...
Filter Total Items: 87
Global projections of storm surges using high-resolution CMIP6 climate models Global projections of storm surges using high-resolution CMIP6 climate models
In the coming decades, coastal flooding will become more frequent due to sea-level rise and potential changes in storms. To produce global storm surge projections from 1950 to 2050, we force the Global Tide and Surge Model with a ∼25-km resolution climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). This...
Authors
Sanne Muis, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jose A. A. Antolinez, Job C. Dullaart, Trang Minh Duong, Li H. Erikson, Rein J. Haarsma, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Matthias Mengel, Dewi Le Bars, Andrea C. O'Neill, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Malcolm J. Roberts, Martin Verlaan, Philip J. Ward, Kun Yan
A model integrating satellite-derived shoreline observations for predicting fine-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise across large coastal regions A model integrating satellite-derived shoreline observations for predicting fine-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise across large coastal regions
Satellite-derived shoreline observations combined with dynamic shoreline models enable fine-scale predictions of coastal change across large spatiotemporal scales. Here, we present a satellite-data-assimilated, “littoral-cell”-based, ensemble Kalman-filter shoreline model to predict coastal change and uncertainty due to waves, sea-level rise (SLR), and other natural and anthropogenic...
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Kilian Vos, Kristen D. Splinter, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard
Barrier island reconfiguration leads to rapid erosion and relocation of a rural Alaska community Barrier island reconfiguration leads to rapid erosion and relocation of a rural Alaska community
Coastal erosion is one of the foremost hazards that circumpolar communities face. Climate change and warming temperatures are anticipated to accelerate coastal change, increasing risk to coastal communities. Most erosion hazard studies for Alaska communities only consider linear erosion and do not anticipate coastal morphologic changes. This study showcases the possibility and...
Authors
Richard M. Buzard, Nicole E.M. Kinsman, Christopher V. Maio, Li H. Erikson, Benjamin M. Jones, Scott K. Anderson, Roberta Glenn, Jacquelyn R. Overbeck
Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast
A 38-year hindcast water level product is developed for the U.S. Southeast Atlantic coastline from the entrance of Chesapeake Bay to the southeast tip of Florida. The water level modelling framework utilized in this study combines a global-scale hydrodynamic model (Global Tide and Surge Model, GTSM-ERA5), a novel ensemble-based tide model, a parameterized wave setup model, and...
Authors
Kai Alexander Parker, Li H. Erikson, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Patrick L. Barnard, Sanne Muis
Rapid modeling of compound flooding across broad coastal regions and the necessity to include rainfall driven processes: A case study of Hurricane Florence (2018) Rapid modeling of compound flooding across broad coastal regions and the necessity to include rainfall driven processes: A case study of Hurricane Florence (2018)
In this work, we show that large-scale compound flood models developed for North and South Carolina, USA, can skillfully simulate multiple drivers of coastal flooding as confirmed by measurements collected during Hurricane Florence (2018). Besides the accuracy of representing observed water levels, the importance of individual processes was investigated. We demonstrate that across the...
Authors
Tim Leijnse, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Kai Alexander Parker, Maarten van Ormondt, Li H. Erikson, Robert T. McCall, Ap van Dongeren, Andrea C. O'Neill, Patrick L. Barnard
Numerical model characterization of sediment transport potentials pre- and post-construction of an artificial island in Foggy Island Bay, Alaska Numerical model characterization of sediment transport potentials pre- and post-construction of an artificial island in Foggy Island Bay, Alaska
The anticipated construction of the Liberty Development Island near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, has created a need to understand how the island may influence sediment transport patterns and deposition on the nearby Boulder Patch ecosystem. This study uses a numerical model to characterize sediment transport pathways in Foggy Island Bay with and without the artificial island in place. We present...
Authors
Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Li H. Erikson, Anita C Engelstad, Stuart Pearson
Barrier islands and spits of northern Alaska: Decadal scale morphological change Barrier islands and spits of northern Alaska: Decadal scale morphological change
Arctic barrier islands and spits are dynamic features influenced by a variety of oceanographic, geologic, and environmental factors. Many serve as habitat and protection for native species and shelter the coast from waves and storms that can flood and erode the adjacent mainland. This paper summarizes results of a study documenting changes to barrier morphology along the North Slope...
Authors
Ann E. Gibbs, Li H. Erikson, Anna I Hamilton
Central Beaufort Sea Wave and Hydrodynamic Modeling Study; Report 2: Modeled waves, hydrodynamics, and sediment transport within Foggy Island Bay Central Beaufort Sea Wave and Hydrodynamic Modeling Study; Report 2: Modeled waves, hydrodynamics, and sediment transport within Foggy Island Bay
Renewed interest in nearshore oil exploration and production in the shallow waters of the Central Beaufort Sea Shelf has created a need to advance our understanding of the past, current, and future atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that affect existing and planned infrastructure and nearshore ecosystems. At the time of writing this report, Hilcorp Alaska LLC has received BOEM...
Authors
Li H. Erikson, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Anita C Engelstad, Jeremy L. Kasper, Peter A. Bieniek
Central Beaufort Sea Wave and Hydrodynamic Modeling Study--Report 1: Field measurements and model development Central Beaufort Sea Wave and Hydrodynamic Modeling Study--Report 1: Field measurements and model development
Renewed interest in nearshore oil exploration and production in the shallow waters of the Central Beaufort Sea Shelf has created a need to advance our understanding of the past, current, and future atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that affect existing and planned infrastructure and nearshore ecosystems. At the time of writing this report, Hilcorp Alaska, LLC, has received BOEM...
Authors
Jeremy L. Kasper, Li H. Erikson, Thomas M. Ravens, Peter A. Bieniek, Anita C Engelstad, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Paul X. Duvoy, Stephanie Fisher, Eloise Petrone Brown, Yaman Man, Borja Reguero
Global ocean wave fields show consistent regional trends between 1980 and 2014 in a multi-product ensemble Global ocean wave fields show consistent regional trends between 1980 and 2014 in a multi-product ensemble
Historical trends in the direction and magnitude of ocean surface wave height, period, or direction are debated due to diverse data, time-periods, or methodologies. Using a consistent community-driven ensemble of global wave products, we quantify and establish regions with robust trends in global multivariate wave fields between 1980 and 2014. We find that about 30–40% of the global...
Authors
Li H. Erikson, J. Morim, M. Hemer, Ian Young, X. Wang, L. Mentaschi, N. Mori, A. Semedo, Justin Stopa, V Grigorieva, S. Gulev, O. Aarnes, J-R Bidlot, O. Breivik, P. Bricheno, P. Camus, T. Shimura, M. Menendez, M. Markina, V.D. Sharmar, C. Trenham, J.F. Wolf, C. Appendini, S. Caires, N. Groll, A. Webb
Atmospheric circulation drivers of extreme high water level events at Foggy Island Bay, Alaska Atmospheric circulation drivers of extreme high water level events at Foggy Island Bay, Alaska
The northern coast of Alaska is experiencing significant climatic change enhancing hazards from reduced sea ice and increased coastal erosion. This same region is home to offshore oil/gas activities. Foggy Island Bay is one region along the Beaufort Sea coast with planned offshore oil/gas development that will need to account for the changing climate. High water levels impact...
Authors
Peter A. Bieniek, Li H. Erikson, Jeremy L. Kasper
Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast
Traditional methods to assess the probability of storm-induced erosion and flooding from extreme water levels have limited use along the U.S. West Coast where swell dominates erosion and storm surge is limited. This effort presents methodology to assess the probability of erosion and flooding for the U.S. West Coast from extreme total water levels (TWLs), but the approach is applicable...
Authors
James B. Shope, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Curt D. Storlazzi, Katherine A. Serafin, Kara S. Doran, Hilary F. Stockdon, Borja G. Reguero, Fernando J. Mendez, Sonia Castanedo, Alba Cid, Laura Cagigal, Peter Ruggiero
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