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Paul C. Selmants

Dr. Paul Selmants is a Research Ecologist with the Western Geographic Science Center at Moffett Field, CA. His research seeks to quantify the impact of human activities on terrestrial ecosystems at regional to continental scales. 

Paul uses data synthesis, geospatial analysis, and simulation modeling to examine the impact of climate and land use change on ecosystem carbon balance at the landscape scale. His research focus is on the western continental United States and the Hawaiian Islands. 

Professional Experience

  • 2020 – present: Research Ecologist, USGS Western Geographic Science Center 

  • 2016 - 2020: Research Physical Scientist, USGS Western Geographic Science Center 

  • 2012-16:  Research Faculty, University of Hawaii at Manoa

  • 2008 – 2011: Postdoctoral Scholar, University of California, Santa Cruz

  • 2007-08:  Postdoc, Northern Arizona University

Education and Certifications

  • 2007: Ph.D. Forest Science, Northern Arizona University 

  • 2000: M.S. Botany, University of Wyoming 

  • 1996: B.S. Botany, Miami University of Ohio

Affiliations and Memberships*

  • American Geophysical Union (AGU) 

  • Ecological Society of America (ESA) 

  • Society for Open, Reliable, and Transparent Ecology and Evolutionary Biology (SORTEE) 

Science and Products

Ecosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under different scenarios of future climate and land use change

The State of Hawai'i passed legislation to be carbon neutral by 2045, a goal that will partly depend on carbon sequestration by terrestrial ecosystems. However, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the future direction and magnitude of the land carbon sink in the Hawaiian Islands. We used the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a spatially explicit stochastic simulation model
By
Western Geographic Science Center

Trait-based filtering mediates the effects of realistic biodiversity losses on ecosystem functioning

Biodiversity losses are a major driver of global changes in ecosystem functioning. While most studies of the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning have examined randomized species losses, trait-based filtering associated with species-specific vulnerability to drivers of diversity loss can strongly influence how ecosystem functioning responds to declining biodiversity. Moreove
By
Climate Research and Development Program, Land Change Science Program, Western Geographic Science Center

A new remote sensing-based Carbon Sequestration Potential Index (CSPI): A tool to support land carbon management

Integrating remote sensing into assessments of carbon stocks and fluxes has advanced our understanding of how global change affects landscapes and our capacity to support decision making about forest management. However, there remains a lack of detailed and actionable analyses conducted across widely ranging environmental conditions that are appropriate for tactical planning. We used airborne lase
By
Western Geographic Science Center

Shaping land use change and ecosystem restoration in a water-stressed agricultural landscape to achieve multiple benefits

Irrigated agriculture has grown rapidly over the last 50 years, helping food production keep pace with population growth, but also leading to significant habitat and biodiversity loss globally. Now, in some regions, land degradation and overtaxed water resources mean historical production levels may need to be reduced. We demonstrate how analytically supported planning for habitat restoration in s
By
Western Geographic Science Center

Genetic variation in tree leaf chemistry predicts the abundance and activity of autotrophic soil microorganisms

Genetic variation in the chemistry of plant leaves can have ecosystem-level consequences. Here we address the hypothesis that genetic variation in foliar condensed tannins along a Populus hybridization gradient influence soil ammonia oxidizers, autotrophic microorganisms that perform the first step of nitrification and are not dependent on carbon derived from plant photosynthesis. Evidence that ge
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Climate Research and Development Program, Land Change Science Program, Western Geographic Science Center

Effects of 21st century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO2. However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial eco
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Climate Research and Development Program, Fisheries Program (unpublished), Land Change Science Program, Western Fisheries Research Center, Western Geographic Science Center

Actinorhizal species influence plant and soil nitrogen status of semiarid shrub-dominated ecosystems in the western Great Basin, USA

Actinorhizal plants form symbiotic root associations with dinitrogen (N2) fixing Frankia and are abundant in North American cold deserts. However, the extent to which actinorhizal species are actively fixing N2 or altering ecosystem nitrogen (N) availability remains unclear. We used the 15N natural abundance technique to measure how three widespread actinorhizal species in the western Great Basin
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Western Geographic Science Center

Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can have profound effects on terrestrial carbon dynamics, yet their effects on the global carbon budget remain uncertain. While land change impacts on ecosystem carbon dynamics have been the focus of numerous studies, few efforts have been based on observational data incorporating multiple ecosystem types spanning large geographic areas over long time hori
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Climate Adaptation Science Centers, National Land Imaging Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Western Geographic Science Center

Evaluating the role of land cover and climate uncertainties in computing gross primary production in Hawaiian Island ecosystems

Gross primary production (GPP) is the Earth’s largest carbon flux into the terrestrial biosphere and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric chemistry and global climate. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)-MOD17 data product is a widely used remote sensing-based model that provides global estimates of spatiotemporal trends in GPP. When the MOD17 algorithm is applied to re
By
Western Geographic Science Center

Baseline and projected future carbon storage and carbon fluxes in ecosystems of Hawai‘i

This assessment was conducted to fulfill the requirements of section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 and to improve understanding of factors influencing carbon balance in ecosystems of Hawai‘i. Ecosystem carbon storage, carbon fluxes, and carbon balance were examined for major terrestrial ecosystems on the seven main Hawaiian islands in two time periods: baseline (from 2007
By
Core Science Systems Mission Area, Land Change Science Program, Western Geographic Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center

Flowering phenology shifts in response to biodiversity loss

Observational studies and experimental evidence agree that rising global temperatures have altered plant phenology—the timing of life events, such as flowering, germination, and leaf-out. Other large-scale global environmental changes, such as nitrogen deposition and altered precipitation regimes, have also been linked to changes in flowering times. Despite our increased understanding of how abiot
By
Western Geographic Science Center

The potential carbon benefit of reforesting Hawai‘i Island non-native grasslands with endemic Acacia koa trees

Large areas of forest in the tropics have been cleared and converted to pastureland. Hawai‘i Island is no exception, with over 100,000 ha of historically forested land now dominated by non-native grasses. Passive forest restoration has been unsuccessful because these grasslands tend to persist even after grazers have been removed, yet active outplanting of native tree species can be cost-prohibiti
By
Western Geographic Science Center

Non-USGS Publications**

Asner, GP, S Sousan, DE Knapp, PC Selmants, RE Martin, RF Hughes, and CP Giardina (2016) Rapid forest carbon assessment of oceanic islands: a case study of the Hawaiian archipelago. Carbon Balance and Management, 11:1. DOI: 10.1186/s13021-015-0043-4.
Selmants, PC, KL Adair, CM Litton, CP Giardina, and E Schwartz (2016) Increases in mean annual temperature do not alter soil bacterial community structure in tropical montane wet forests. Ecosphere 7(4):e01296. DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1296
Hernandez, DL, DM Vallano, ES Zavaleta, Z Tzankova, JR Pasari, S Weiss, PC Selmants, and C.M. Morozumi (2016) Nitrogen pollution is linked to to US listed species declines. BioScience 66: 213-222. DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biw003
Bothwell LD, PC Selmants, CP Giardina, and CM Litton (2014) Leaf litter decomposition rates increase with rising mean annual temperature in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forests. PeerJ 2:e685. DOI: 10.7717/peerj.685
Selmants, PC, CM Litton, CP Giardina, and GP Asner (2014) Ecosystem carbon storage does not vary with mean annual temperature in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forests. Global Change Biology 20: 2927–2937. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12636

**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.

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Image of Mount Adams with grassland and trees

Land Use and Climate Change Team

We are a research team focusing on understanding the rates, causes, and consequences of land change across a range of geographic and temporal scales. Our emphasis is on developing alternative future projections and quantifying the impact on environmental systems, in particular, the role of land-use change on ecosystem carbon dynamics. We are interested in how land-use and climate systems will...
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Western Geographic Science Center
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Land Use and Climate Change Team

We are a research team focusing on understanding the rates, causes, and consequences of land change across a range of geographic and temporal scales. Our emphasis is on developing alternative future projections and quantifying the impact on environmental systems, in particular, the role of land-use change on ecosystem carbon dynamics. We are interested in how land-use and climate systems will...
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Frequency of forest change across the conterminous United States from 1985-2020

We summarized annual remote sensing land cover classifications from the U.S. Geological Survey Land Cover Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) annual time series to characterize the frequency of forest change across the conterminous United States (CONUS) between 1985-2020. Data include a raster map of CONUS with pixel values representing the number of years in which it was classified as
By
Climate Research and Development Program, Western Geographic Science Center

Land change and carbon balance projections for the Hawaiian Islands

Tabular data output from a series of modeling simulations for the seven main Hawaiian Islands. We used the LUCAS model to project changes in ecosystem carbon balance resulting from land use, land use change, climate change, and wildfire. The model was run at a 250-m spatial resolution on an annual timestep from the years 2010 to 2100. We simulated four unique scenarios, consisting of all combinati
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Western Geographic Science Center

Science and Products

*Disclaimer: Listing outside positions with professional scientific organizations on this Staff Profile are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an endorsement of those professional scientific organizations or their activities by the USGS, Department of the Interior, or U.S. Government