Effects of changing climate on aquatic ecosystems requires understanding a complex series of interactions between terrestrial climates, their corresponding impacts on hydrological processes, and ultimately a suite of biological responses. These uncertainties stand in contrast to the urgent need for reliable information to be used in developing long-term strategies for climate adaptation to effectively manage threatened and endangered species and ecosystem services. We have approached the question of climate impacts in three ways: 1) by evaluating ecosystem responses to historical climatic variability, 2) contrasting climate versus other threats to aquatic species on contemporary time frames, and 3) developing approaches to projecting future conditions and guidelines for application.
Our work has often focused on understanding changes in stream flows and water temperatures, as these two factors are expected to be most responsive to climate and have impacts on a broad range of species. We have employed analyses of historical time series of water temperatures and long-term records of population abundance, as well as growth histories of long-lived individuals (e.g., freshwater mussels), to better understand both physical and biotic responses to observed climate variability. Our efforts to evaluate climate impacts across the range of broadly distributed and climatically sensitive species (e.g., threatened bull trout and inland cutthroat trout subspecies) are identifying threats from climate, as well as contemporary human-related influences. We are also studying how species respond to temporally and spatially variable climate-related conditions (e.g., behavioral thermoregulation, species phenologies, spatial landscape processes), which will provide key insights into their resilience as future changes are manifested. Studies about species responses to climate are evaluating sources and propagation of uncertainty so that key information gaps can be identified and addressed.
We are in the first decades of many to come that will be centered on understanding climate change. Our goal is to produce a durable foundation of scientific information that will be useful for years to come.
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
FLOwPER Database: StreamFLOw PERmanence field observations, August 2019 - October 2019
Stream Temperature in the Northern Great Basin region of Southeastern Oregon, 2016-2019
Below are publications associated with this project.
Tough places and safe spaces: Can refuges save salmon from a warming climate?
Land-cover and climatic controls on water temperature, flow permanence, and fragmentation of Great Basin stream networks
Thermal heterogeneity, migration, and consequences for spawning potential of female bull trout in a river-reservoir system
Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem
Effects of a changing climate on the hydrological cycle in cold desert ecosystems of the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau
An integrated framework for ecological drought across riverscapes of North America
Probability of streamflow permanence model (PROSPER): A spatially continuous model of annual streamflow permanence throughout the Pacific Northwest
Functional and geographic components of risk for climate sensitive vertebrates in the Pacific Northwest, USA
Monitoring stream temperatures—A guide for non-specialists
Rising synchrony controls western North American ecosystems
A statistical method to predict flow permanence in dryland streams from time series of stream temperature
Defining ecological drought for the 21st century
Below are news stories associated with this project.
- Overview
Effects of changing climate on aquatic ecosystems requires understanding a complex series of interactions between terrestrial climates, their corresponding impacts on hydrological processes, and ultimately a suite of biological responses. These uncertainties stand in contrast to the urgent need for reliable information to be used in developing long-term strategies for climate adaptation to effectively manage threatened and endangered species and ecosystem services. We have approached the question of climate impacts in three ways: 1) by evaluating ecosystem responses to historical climatic variability, 2) contrasting climate versus other threats to aquatic species on contemporary time frames, and 3) developing approaches to projecting future conditions and guidelines for application.
Our work has often focused on understanding changes in stream flows and water temperatures, as these two factors are expected to be most responsive to climate and have impacts on a broad range of species. We have employed analyses of historical time series of water temperatures and long-term records of population abundance, as well as growth histories of long-lived individuals (e.g., freshwater mussels), to better understand both physical and biotic responses to observed climate variability. Our efforts to evaluate climate impacts across the range of broadly distributed and climatically sensitive species (e.g., threatened bull trout and inland cutthroat trout subspecies) are identifying threats from climate, as well as contemporary human-related influences. We are also studying how species respond to temporally and spatially variable climate-related conditions (e.g., behavioral thermoregulation, species phenologies, spatial landscape processes), which will provide key insights into their resilience as future changes are manifested. Studies about species responses to climate are evaluating sources and propagation of uncertainty so that key information gaps can be identified and addressed.
We are in the first decades of many to come that will be centered on understanding climate change. Our goal is to produce a durable foundation of scientific information that will be useful for years to come.
- Data
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
FLOwPER Database: StreamFLOw PERmanence field observations, August 2019 - October 2019
IMPORTANT NOTE: More recent versions of these data release are available at this link. This dataset includes spatial locations where streamflow permanence observations (continuous flow, discontinuous flow, and dry) were recorded using the FLOwPER (FLOw PERmanence) field survey available in the Survey 123 and S1 mobile application. Additional information to describe the field conditions are includStream Temperature in the Northern Great Basin region of Southeastern Oregon, 2016-2019
This data release is superseded by Thorson, J.M., Dunham, J.B., Heck, M.P., Hockman-Wert, D.P., and Mintz, J.M., 2022, Stream Temperature in the Northern Great Basin region of Southeastern Oregon, 2016-2021: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9EDM6L6. Please contact fresc_outreach@usgs.gov for original data set. This dataset includes hourly stream and air temperature da - Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 33Tough places and safe spaces: Can refuges save salmon from a warming climate?
The importance of thermal refuges in a rapidly warming world is particularly evident for migratory species, where individuals encounter a wide range of conditions throughout their lives. In this study, we used a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model to evaluate the buffering potential of cold-water thermal refuges for anadromous salmon and trout (Oncorhynchus spp.) migrating upstreAuthorsMarcía N. Snyder, Nathan H. Schumaker, Jason Dunham, Joseph L. Ebersole, Mathew L Keefer, Jonathan Halama, Randy L Comeleo, Peter Leinenbach, Allen Brookes, Ben Cope, Jennifer Wu, John PalmerLand-cover and climatic controls on water temperature, flow permanence, and fragmentation of Great Basin stream networks
The seasonal and inter-annual variability of flow presence and water temperature within headwater streams of the Great Basin of the western United States limit the occurrence and distribution of coldwater fish and other aquatic species. To evaluate changes in flow presence and water temperature during seasonal dry periods, we developed spatial stream network (SSN) models from remotely sensed land-AuthorsAndrew S. Gendaszek, Jason B. Dunham, Christian E. Torgersen, David P Hockman-Wert, Michael Heck, Justin Martin Thorson, Jeffrey Michael Mintz, Todd AllaiThermal heterogeneity, migration, and consequences for spawning potential of female bull trout in a river-reservoir system
The likelihood that fish will initiate spawning, spawn successfully, or skip spawning in a given year is conditioned in part on availability of energy reserves. We evaluated the consequences of spatial heterogeneity in thermal conditions on the energy accumulation and spawning potential of migratory bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a regulated river–reservoir system. Based on existing data,AuthorsJoseph R. Benjamin, Dmitri T Vidergar, Jason B. DunhamClimate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem
Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all Pacific salmon anAuthorsLisa G Crozier, Michelle M McClure, Tim J. Beechie, Steven J. Bograd, David A. Boughton, Mark H. Carr, Thomas D. Cooney, Jason B. Dunham, Correigh M. Greene, Melissa A Haltuch, Elliott L. Hazen, Damon M Holzer, David D. Huff, Rachel C. Johnson, Chris E Jordan, Issac C Kaplan, Steven T Lindley, Nathan J Mantua, Peter B. Moyle, James M Myers, Mark W Nelson, Brian C Spence, Laurie A. Weitkamp, Thomas H. Williams, Ellen Willis-NortonEffects of a changing climate on the hydrological cycle in cold desert ecosystems of the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau
Climate change is already resulting in changes in cold desert ecosystems, lending urgency to the need to understand climate change effects and develop effective adaptation strategies. In this review, we synthesize information on changes in climate and hydrologic processes during the last century for the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau, and discuss future projections for the 21st century. We deveAuthorsKeirith A. Snyder, Louisa B. Evers, Jeanne C. Chambers, Jason B. Dunham, John B. Bradford, Michael E. LoikAn integrated framework for ecological drought across riverscapes of North America
Climate change is increasing the severity and extent of extreme droughts events, posing a critical threat to freshwater ecosystems, particularly with increasing human demands for diminishing water supplies. Despite the importance of drought as a significant driver of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, current understanding of drought consequences for freshwater biodiversity is very limited. WAuthorsRyan Kovach, Jason B. Dunham, Robert Al-Chokhachy, Craig Snyder, Erik A. Beever, Gregory T. Pederson, Abigail Lynch, Nathaniel P. Hitt, Christopher P. Konrad, Kristin Jaeger, Alan H. Rea, Adam J. Sepulveda, Patrick M. Lambert, Jason M. Stoker, J. Joseph Giersch, Clint C. MuhlfeldProbability of streamflow permanence model (PROSPER): A spatially continuous model of annual streamflow permanence throughout the Pacific Northwest
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS raster-based empirical model that provides streamflow permanence probabilities (probabilistic predictions) of a stream channel having year-round flow for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest region, U.S. The model provides annual predictions forAuthorsKristin Jaeger, Roy Sando, Ryan R. McShane, Jason B. Dunham, David Hockman-Wert, Kendra E. Kaiser, Konrad Hafen, John Risley, Kyle BlaschFunctional and geographic components of risk for climate sensitive vertebrates in the Pacific Northwest, USA
Rarity and life history traits inform multiple dimensions of intrinsic risk to climate and environmental change and can help systematically identify at-risk species. We quantified relative geographic rarity (area of occupancy), climate niche breadth, and life history traits for 114 freshwater fishes, amphibians, and reptiles in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Our approach leveraged presence-only, publAuthorsMeryl Mims, Deanna H. Olson, David S. Pilliod, Jason B. DunhamMonitoring stream temperatures—A guide for non-specialists
Executive SummaryWater temperature influences most physical and biological processes in streams, and along with streamflows is a major driver of ecosystem processes. Collecting data to measure water temperature is therefore imperative, and relatively straightforward. Several protocols exist for collecting stream temperature data, but these are frequently directed towards specialists. This documentAuthorsMichael P. Heck, Luke D. Schultz, David Hockman-Wert, Eric C. Dinger, Jason B. DunhamRising synchrony controls western North American ecosystems
Along the western margin of North America, the winter expression of the North Pacific High (NPH) strongly influences interannual variability in coastal upwelling, storm track position, precipitation, and river discharge. Coherence among these factors induces covariance among physical and biological processes across adjacent marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that over the past centurAuthorsBryan A. Black, Peter van der Sleen, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Daniel Griffin, William J. Sydeman, Jason B. Dunham, Ryan R. Rykaczewski, Marisol Garcia-Reyes, Mohammad Safeeq, Ivan Arismendi, Steven J. BogradA statistical method to predict flow permanence in dryland streams from time series of stream temperature
Intermittent and ephemeral streams represent more than half of the length of the global river network. Dryland freshwater ecosystems are especially vulnerable to changes in human-related water uses as well as shifts in terrestrial climates. Yet, the description and quantification of patterns of flow permanence in these systems is challenging mostly due to difficulties in instrumentation. Here, weAuthorsIvan Arismendi, Jason B. Dunham, Michael Heck, Luke Schultz, David Hockman-WertDefining ecological drought for the 21st century
No abstract available.AuthorsShelley D. Crausbay, Aaron R. Ramirez, Shawn L. Carter, Molly S. Cross, Kimberly R. Hall, Deborah J. Bathke, Julio L. Betancourt, Steve Colt, Amanda E. Cravens, Melinda S. Dalton, Jason B. Dunham, Lauren E. Hay, Michael J. Hayes, Jamie McEvoy, Chad A. McNutt, Max A. Moritz, Keith H. Nislow, Nejem Raheem, Todd Sanford - News
Below are news stories associated with this project.