Geologic Hazards Science Center
Publications
U.S. Geological Survey wildland fire science strategic plan, 2021–26
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Wildland Fire Science Strategic Plan defines critical, core fire science capabilities for understanding fire-related and fire-responsive earth system processes and patterns, and informing management decision making. Developed by USGS fire scientists and executive leadership, and informed by conversations with...
Steblein, Paul F.; Loehman, Rachel A.; Miller, Mark P.; Holomuzki, Joseph R.; Soileau, Suzanna C.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Drane-Maury, Mia; Hamilton, Hannah M.; Kean, Jason W.; Keeley, Jon E.; Mason, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa J.; Meldrum, James R.; Molder, Edmund B.; Murphy, Sheila F.; Peterson, Birgit; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Shinneman, Douglas J.; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; York, Alison
Amateur radio operators help fill earthquake donut holes
If you’ve ever seen tall antennas rising from everyday residences in your community and wondered what they are for, it could be that those homes belong to ham radio enthusiasts who enjoy communicating with each other over the airwaves. In addition to having fun with their radios and finding camaraderie, many ham radio operators are also...
Wald, David J.; Quitoriano, Vince; Dully, Oliver Quantifying nuisance ground motion thresholds for induced earthquakes
Hazards from induced earthquakes are a growing concern with a need for effective management. One aspect of that concern is the “nuisance” from unexpected ground motions, which have the potential to cause public alarm and discontent. In this article, we borrow earthquake engineering concepts to quantify the chance of building damage states and...
Schultz, Ryan; Quitoriano, Vince; Wald, David J.; Beroza, Gregory C. Modeling hydrologic processes associated with soil saturation and debris flow initiation during the September 2013 storm, Colorado Front Range
Seven days of extreme rainfall during September 2013 produced more than 1100 debris flows in the Colorado Front Range, about 78% of which occurred on south-facing slopes (SFS). Previously published soil moisture (volumetric water content) observations suggest that SFS were wetter than north-facing slopes (NFS) during the event, which contrasts...
Timilsina, Sujana; Niemann, Jeffrey D.; Rathburn, Sara L.; Rengers, Francis K.; Nelson, Peter A. Toward physics-based nonergodic PSHA: A prototype fully-deterministic seismic hazard model for southern California
We present a nonergodic framework for probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA) that is constructed entirely of deterministic, physical models. The use of deterministic ground‐motion simulations in PSHA calculations is not new (e.g., CyberShake), but prior studies relied on kinematic rupture generators to extend empirical earthquake rupture...
Milner, Kevin R.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Goulet, Christine A.; Richards-Dinger, Keith B.; Callaghan, Scott; Jordan, Thomas H.; Dieterich, James H.; Field, Edward H. A subset of CyberShake ground-motion time series for response-history analysis
This manuscript describes a subset of CyberShake numerically simulated ground motions that were selected and vetted for use in engineering response-history analyses. Ground motions were selected that have seismological properties and response spectra representative of conditions in the Los Angeles area, based on disaggregation of seismic hazard....
Baker, Jack W.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Goulet, Christine A.; Luco, Nicolas; Teng, Ganyu Evaluation of simulated ground motions using probabilistic seismic demand analysis: CyberShake (ver. 15.12) simulations for Ordinary Standard Bridges
There is a need for benchmarking and validating simulated ground motions in order for them to be utilized by the engineering community. Such validation may be geared towards a specific ground motion simulation method, a target engineering application, and a specific location; the validation presented herein focuses on a bridge engineering...
Fayaz, Jawad; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Zareian, Farzin Rapid sensitivity analysis for reducing uncertainty in landslide hazard assessments
One of the challenges in assessing temporal and spatial aspects of landslide hazard using process-based models is estimating model input parameters, especially in areas where limited measurements of soil and rock properties are available. In an effort to simplify and streamline parameter estimation, development of a simple, rapid approach to...
Baum, Rex L. Spectral inversion for seismic site response in central Oklahoma: Low-frequency resonances from the Great Unconformity
We investigate seismic site response by inverting seismic ground‐motion spectra for site and source spectral properties, in a region of central Oklahoma, where previous ground‐motion studies have indicated discrepancies between observations and ground‐motion models (GMMs). The inversion is constrained by a source spectral model, which we computed...
Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hartzell, Stephen H. Generalizing the inversion‐based PSHA source model for an interconnected fault system
This article represents a step toward generalizing and simplifying the procedure for constructing an inversion‐based seismic hazard source model for an interconnected fault system, including the specification of adjustable segmentation constraints. A very simple example is used to maximize understandability and to counter the notion that an...
Field, Edward H.; Milner, Kevin R.; Page, Morgan T. Wildfire and landscape change
Wildfire is a worldwide phenomenon that is expected to increase in extent and severity in the future, due to fuel accumulations, shifting land management practices, and climate change. It immediately affects the landscape by removing vegetation, depositing ash, influencing water-repellent soil formation, and physically weathering boulders and...
Santi, Paul M.; Rengers, Francis K. Localized fault-zone dilatancy and surface inelasticity of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes
Earthquakes produce a spectrum of elastic and inelastic deformation processes that are reflected across various length and time scales. While elasticity has long dominated research assumptions in active tectonics, increasing interest has focused on the inelastic characteristics of earthquakes, particularly those of the surface fault rupture zone...
Barnhart, William D.; Gold, Ryan D.; Hollingsworth, James