The nation's coastlines are vulnerable to the interrelated hazards posed by earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. In the marine environment these events often occur in concert, and distant triggers can cause severe local effects, making the issue global in scope. As the population continues to migrate toward the coastlines, the social impacts of these hazards are expected to grow.
Products are aimed for use in regional multi-hazard assessments, and might range from complete assessments to analysis tools, interpreted data, or models. We are interacting with groups tasked with making formal hazard assessments and have provided products needed by them in a timely manner (e.g., Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)). These collaborations will continue to be a major guiding influence, and we plan to maintain research flexibility needed for proper response as necessary. As such, the task is defined thematically. The larger community will help to establish guidelines on regions in which we will we work.
Research Web Sites
Tsunami and Earthquake Research
This site provides general information about how earthquakes generate tsunamis, as well as descriptions and animations of historical tsunamis, virtual reality models showing how tsunamis change as they approach and bounce off coastlines, and summaries of past fieldwork in areas struck by major tsunamis.
Earthquake Hazards Program
We work closely with scientists in the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with the goal of providing relevant scientific information to reduce deaths, injuries, and property damage from earthquakes.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)
We collaborate with groups that make formal hazard assessments, such as the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), providing and evaluating the latest scientific information. This site presents the most recent collaborative earthquake forecasts for all of California.
Global Geoengineering Research
The Coastal and Marine Geology geoengineering group investigates the causes of ground deformation and ground failures—such as landslides and liquefaction—that result from earthquakes, storms, and wave action.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Global Geoengineering Research
Tsunami Hazards, Modeling, and the Sedimentary Record
Tsunami and Earthquake Research
Below are publications associated with this project.
Earthquake magnitude distributions on northern Caribbean faults from combinatorial optimization models
On-fault earthquake magnitude distributions are calculated for northern Caribbean faults using estimates of fault slip and regional seismicity parameters. Integer programming, a combinatorial optimization method, is used to determine the optimal spatial arrangement of earthquakes sampled from a truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution that minimizes the global misfit in slip rates on a complex fau
Hydrological control shift from river level to rainfall in the reactivated Guobu slope besides the Laxiwa hydropower station in China
The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)
Seismic attenuation monitoring of a critically stressed San Andreas fault
On the use of receiver operating character tests for evaluating spatial earthquake forecasts
Distribution of earthquakes on a branching fault system using integer programming and greedy sequential methods
Shoreline retreat of the Corte Madera marshes, 1853 to 2016, Marin County, California
Book Review of "Mathematical Geosciences: Hybrid Symbolic-Numeric Methods", by Joseph L. Awange, Béla Paláncz, Robert H. Lewis, and Lajos Völgyesi
The predictive skills of elastic Coulomb rate-and-state aftershock forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence
Book review of "Tsunami Propagation in Tidal Rivers", by Elena Tolkova
The role of seismic and slow slip events in triggering the 2018 M7.1 Anchorage earthquake in the Southcentral Alaska subduction zone
A new technique to calculate earthquake stress transfer and to forecast aftershocks
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Below are FAQ associated with this project.
Could a large tsunami happen in the United States?
Large tsunamis have occurred in the United States and will undoubtedly occur again. Significant earthquakes around the Pacific rim have generated tsunamis that struck Hawaii, Alaska, and the U.S. west coast. One of the largest and most devastating tsunamis that Hawaii has experienced was in 1946 from an earthquake along the Aleutian subduction zone. Runup heights reached a maximum of 33 to 55 feet...
Is there a system to warn populations of an imminent occurrence of a tsunami?
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) maintains the U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers, and work in conjunction with USGS seismic networks to help determine when and where to issue tsunami warnings. Also, if an earthquake meets certain criteria for potentially generating a tsunami, the pop-up window and the event page for that earthquake on the USGS Latest Earthquakes Map will include a...
What are tsunamis?
Tsunamis are ocean waves triggered by:Large earthquakes that occur near or under the oceanVolcanic eruptionsSubmarine landslidesOnshore landslides in which large volumes of debris fall into the water Scientists do not use the term "tidal wave" because these waves are not caused by tides. Tsunami waves are unlike typical ocean waves generated by wind and storms, and most tsunamis do not "break"...
What is it about an earthquake that causes a tsunami?
Although earthquake magnitude is one factor that affects tsunami generation, there are other important factors to consider. The earthquake must be a shallow marine event that displaces the seafloor. Thrust earthquakes (as opposed to strike slip) are far more likely to generate tsunamis, but small tsunamis have occurred in a few cases from large (i.e., > M8) strike-slip earthquakes. Note the...
What is the difference between a tsunami and a tidal wave?
Although both are sea waves, a tsunami and a tidal wave are two different and unrelated phenomena. A tidal wave is a shallow water wave caused by the gravitational interactions between the Sun, Moon, and Earth ("tidal wave" was used in earlier times to describe what we now call a tsunami.) A tsunami is an ocean wave triggered by large earthquakes that occur near or under the ocean, volcanic...
Can you predict earthquakes?
No. Neither the USGS nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. We do not know how, and we do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. USGS scientists can only calculate the probability that a significant earthquake will occur (shown on our hazard mapping) in a specific area within a certain number of years. An earthquake prediction must define 3 elements: 1...
What is the difference between earthquake early warning, earthquake forecasts, earthquake probabilities, and earthquake prediction?
The USGS uses these four terms to refer to four different things. Early warning is a notification that is issued after an earthquake starts. Probabilities and forecasts are comparable to climate probabilities and weather forecasts, while predictions are more like statements of when, where, and how large, which is not yet possible for earthquakes. Here are more detailed descriptions of each...
- Overview
The nation's coastlines are vulnerable to the interrelated hazards posed by earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. In the marine environment these events often occur in concert, and distant triggers can cause severe local effects, making the issue global in scope. As the population continues to migrate toward the coastlines, the social impacts of these hazards are expected to grow.
Products are aimed for use in regional multi-hazard assessments, and might range from complete assessments to analysis tools, interpreted data, or models. We are interacting with groups tasked with making formal hazard assessments and have provided products needed by them in a timely manner (e.g., Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)). These collaborations will continue to be a major guiding influence, and we plan to maintain research flexibility needed for proper response as necessary. As such, the task is defined thematically. The larger community will help to establish guidelines on regions in which we will we work.
Research Web Sites
Tsunami and Earthquake Research
This site provides general information about how earthquakes generate tsunamis, as well as descriptions and animations of historical tsunamis, virtual reality models showing how tsunamis change as they approach and bounce off coastlines, and summaries of past fieldwork in areas struck by major tsunamis.Earthquake Hazards Program
We work closely with scientists in the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with the goal of providing relevant scientific information to reduce deaths, injuries, and property damage from earthquakes.Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)
We collaborate with groups that make formal hazard assessments, such as the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), providing and evaluating the latest scientific information. This site presents the most recent collaborative earthquake forecasts for all of California.Global Geoengineering Research
The Coastal and Marine Geology geoengineering group investigates the causes of ground deformation and ground failures—such as landslides and liquefaction—that result from earthquakes, storms, and wave action. - Science
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Global Geoengineering Research
The Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center geotechnical group investigates the causes of ground deformation and ground failure as a result of earthquakes, storms, and wave actionTsunami Hazards, Modeling, and the Sedimentary Record
Basic research to develop the geologic record of paleotsunamis and improve the ability to interpret that record is needed to mitigate tsunami risk in the U.S.ByNatural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, 3-D CT Core Imaging Laboratory, Core Preparation and Analysis Laboratory and Sample Repositories, Multi-Sensor Core Logger Laboratory, Sediment Lab Suite and Carbon Analysis Laboratory, Subduction Zone ScienceTsunami and Earthquake Research
Here you will find general information on the science behind tsunami generation, computer animations of tsunamis, and summaries of past field studies. - Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 115Earthquake magnitude distributions on northern Caribbean faults from combinatorial optimization models
On-fault earthquake magnitude distributions are calculated for northern Caribbean faults using estimates of fault slip and regional seismicity parameters. Integer programming, a combinatorial optimization method, is used to determine the optimal spatial arrangement of earthquakes sampled from a truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution that minimizes the global misfit in slip rates on a complex fau
AuthorsEric L. Geist, Uri S. ten BrinkHydrological control shift from river level to rainfall in the reactivated Guobu slope besides the Laxiwa hydropower station in China
Landslides are common geohazards associated with natural drivers such as precipitation, land degradation, toe erosion by rivers and wave attack, and ground shaking. On the other hand, human alterations such as inundation by water impoundment or rapid drawdown may also destabilize the surrounding slopes. The Guobu slope is an ancient rockslide on the banks of the Laxiwa hydropower station reservoirAuthorsXuguo Shi, Xie Hu, Nicholas Sitar, Robert Kayen, Shengwen Qi, Houjun Jiang, Xudong WangThe making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)
The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making procesAuthorsRoberto Basili, Beatriz Brizuela, Andre Herrero, Sarfraz Iqbal, Stefano Lorito, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Shane Murphy, Paolo Perfetti, Fabrizio Romano, Antonio Scala, Jacopo Selva, Matteo Taroni, Mara Monica Tiberti, Hong Kie Thio, R. Tonini, Manuela Volpe, Sylfest Glimsdal, Carl B. Harbitz, Finn Lovholt, Maria Ana Baptista, Fernando Carrilho, Luis M. A. Matias, Rachid Omira, Andrey Babeyko, Andreas Hoechner, Mucahit Gurbuz, Onur Pekcan, A. Yalciner, Miquel Canals, Galderic Lastras, Apostolos Agalos, Gerassimo Papadapoulos, Ioanna Triantafyllou, Sabah Benchekroun, Hedi Agrebi Jaouadi, Samir Ben Abdallah, Atef Bouallegue, Hassene Hamdi, Foued Oueslati, A. Amato, Alberto Armigliato, Jörn Behrens, Gareth Davies, Daniela Di Bucci, Mauro Dolce, Eric L. Geist, Jose Manuel Gonzalez Vida, Mauricio Gonzalez, Jorges Macias Sanchez, C. Meletti, Ceren Ozer Sozdinler, Marco Pagani, Tom Parsons, Jascha Polet, William Power, Mathilde B. Sorensen, Andrey ZaytsevSeismic attenuation monitoring of a critically stressed San Andreas fault
We show that seismic attenuation ( ) along the San Andreas fault (SAF) at Parkfield correlates with the occurrence of moderate‐to‐large earthquakes at local and regional distances. Earthquake‐related anomalies are likely caused by changes in permeability from dilatant static stress changes, damage by strong shaking from local sources, and pore unclogging/clogging from mobilization of colloids byAuthorsLuca Malagnini, Thomas E. ParsonsOn the use of receiver operating character tests for evaluating spatial earthquake forecasts
Spatial forecasts of triggered earthquake distributions have been ranked using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) tests. The test is a binary comparison between regions of positive and negative forecast against positive and negative presence of earthquakes. Forecasts predicting only positive changes score higher than Coulomb methods, which predict positive and negative changes. I hypothesizeAuthorsThomas E. ParsonsDistribution of earthquakes on a branching fault system using integer programming and greedy sequential methods
A new global optimization method is used to determine the distribution of earthquakes on a complex, connected fault system. The method, integer programming, has been advanced in the field of operations research, but has not been widely applied to geophysical problems until recently. In this application, we determine the optimal distribution of earthquakes on mapped faults to minimize the globalAuthorsEric L. Geist, Thomas E. ParsonsShoreline retreat of the Corte Madera marshes, 1853 to 2016, Marin County, California
The greater San Francisco Bay estuary, prior to human intervention, encompassed about 2,200 km2 of tidal and salt marshes. Over time, these areas became increasingly diked, developed, and altered from their natural state. In addition, natural forces are always driving a continually shifting equilibrium.This study area, the Corte Madera marshes, is a tidal marsh or wetland located in southeastern MAuthorsBradley A. Carkin, Robert E. Kayen, Florence L. WongBook Review of "Mathematical Geosciences: Hybrid Symbolic-Numeric Methods", by Joseph L. Awange, Béla Paláncz, Robert H. Lewis, and Lajos Völgyesi
No abstract available.AuthorsEric L. GeistThe predictive skills of elastic Coulomb rate-and-state aftershock forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence
Operational earthquake forecasting protocols commonly use statistical models for their recognized ease of implementation and robustness in describing the short-term spatiotemporal patterns of triggered seismicity. However, recent advances on physics-based aftershock forecasting reveal comparable performance to the standard statistical counterparts with significantly improved predictive skills whenAuthorsSimone Mancini, Margarita Segou, Maximillian J Werner, Thomas E. ParsonsBook review of "Tsunami Propagation in Tidal Rivers", by Elena Tolkova
No abstract available.AuthorsEric L. GeistThe role of seismic and slow slip events in triggering the 2018 M7.1 Anchorage earthquake in the Southcentral Alaska subduction zone
The M 7.1 2018 Anchorage earthquake occurred in the bending part of the subducting North Pacific plate near the geometrical barrier formed by the underthrusting Yakutat terrane. We calculate the triggering potential related with stress redistribution from deformation sources including the M 9.2 1964 earthquake coseismic slip, postseismic deformation, slip from regional M > 5 earthquakes, and theAuthorsMargarita Segou, Thomas E. ParsonsA new technique to calculate earthquake stress transfer and to forecast aftershocks
Coseismic stress changes have been the primary physical principle used to explain aftershocks and triggered earthquakes. However, this method does not adequately forecast earthquake rates and diverse rupture populations when subjected to formal testing. We show that earthquake forecasts can be impaired by assumptions made in physics-based models, such as the existence of hypothetical optimal faultAuthorsMargarita Segou, Thomas E. Parsons - News
Below are news stories associated with this project.
- FAQ
Below are FAQ associated with this project.
Could a large tsunami happen in the United States?
Large tsunamis have occurred in the United States and will undoubtedly occur again. Significant earthquakes around the Pacific rim have generated tsunamis that struck Hawaii, Alaska, and the U.S. west coast. One of the largest and most devastating tsunamis that Hawaii has experienced was in 1946 from an earthquake along the Aleutian subduction zone. Runup heights reached a maximum of 33 to 55 feet...
Is there a system to warn populations of an imminent occurrence of a tsunami?
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) maintains the U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers, and work in conjunction with USGS seismic networks to help determine when and where to issue tsunami warnings. Also, if an earthquake meets certain criteria for potentially generating a tsunami, the pop-up window and the event page for that earthquake on the USGS Latest Earthquakes Map will include a...
What are tsunamis?
Tsunamis are ocean waves triggered by:Large earthquakes that occur near or under the oceanVolcanic eruptionsSubmarine landslidesOnshore landslides in which large volumes of debris fall into the water Scientists do not use the term "tidal wave" because these waves are not caused by tides. Tsunami waves are unlike typical ocean waves generated by wind and storms, and most tsunamis do not "break"...
What is it about an earthquake that causes a tsunami?
Although earthquake magnitude is one factor that affects tsunami generation, there are other important factors to consider. The earthquake must be a shallow marine event that displaces the seafloor. Thrust earthquakes (as opposed to strike slip) are far more likely to generate tsunamis, but small tsunamis have occurred in a few cases from large (i.e., > M8) strike-slip earthquakes. Note the...
What is the difference between a tsunami and a tidal wave?
Although both are sea waves, a tsunami and a tidal wave are two different and unrelated phenomena. A tidal wave is a shallow water wave caused by the gravitational interactions between the Sun, Moon, and Earth ("tidal wave" was used in earlier times to describe what we now call a tsunami.) A tsunami is an ocean wave triggered by large earthquakes that occur near or under the ocean, volcanic...
Can you predict earthquakes?
No. Neither the USGS nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. We do not know how, and we do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. USGS scientists can only calculate the probability that a significant earthquake will occur (shown on our hazard mapping) in a specific area within a certain number of years. An earthquake prediction must define 3 elements: 1...
What is the difference between earthquake early warning, earthquake forecasts, earthquake probabilities, and earthquake prediction?
The USGS uses these four terms to refer to four different things. Early warning is a notification that is issued after an earthquake starts. Probabilities and forecasts are comparable to climate probabilities and weather forecasts, while predictions are more like statements of when, where, and how large, which is not yet possible for earthquakes. Here are more detailed descriptions of each...