Our country faces a wide array of natural hazards that threaten its safety, security, economic well-being, and natural resources. To minimize future losses, communities need a clear understanding of how they are vulnerable to natural hazards and of strategies for increasing their resilience. Vulnerability and resilience are influenced by (1) how communities choose to use hazard-prone land, (2) pre-existing socioeconomic conditions, (3) likely future patterns of land change, and (4) current efforts to reduce and manage risks.
The objective of this project is to develop new ways of assessing and communicating community vulnerability and resilience to natural hazards. This work supports core elements of the USGS mission that focus on understanding land change and minimizing life loss and property damage from natural disasters. The project has completed work on all types of natural hazards, from sudden-onset extreme events (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcano lahars) to chronic events (sea level rise, coastal erosion).
Throughout the various research efforts and assessments, we have developed or improved methods for understanding and communicating societal vulnerability to natural hazards. This project has produced techniques-related articles on the following topics:
Geographical analysis
We use geographic information system (GIS) tools to estimate variations in community exposure of populations, land uses, infrastructures, and economic activities to natural hazards in various States. Exposure assessments have been completed based on maximum hazard zones, scenario-based zones, and comparisons of multiple hazard scenarios. GIS-based statistical analysis is also used to identify variations in demographic sensitivity across a community to natural hazards. We have also applied GIS tools to identify areas in a community with high hazards and societal assets, to demonstrate how landcover data can be used to characterize regional exposure to hazards and to improve population maps.
Spatial modeling
We use GIS to model pedestrian evacuation out of hazard zones, based on landcover, elevation, hazard, and population data. Results help local officials understand where successful evacuations are possible and where vertical-evacuation refuges may be warranted to help save lives. We also have developed GIS methods for helping to site vertical-evacuation refuges, as well as look at past disasters to compare fatality patterns and evacuation potential. To help others do their own pedestrian-evacuation modeling, we’ve created a GIS tool.
Stakeholder surveys
Community vulnerability to hazards cannot be completely understood using only GIS tools and socioeconomic data. Public perceptions and priorities related to hazards are also important elements. Therefore, we use community-based assessment workshops, community recovery forums, and surveys to better understand the human element in vulnerability.
Public engagement
An important part of this project has been training others in our methods so that they can carry out their own assessments. There have been several efforts of the years to share results and methods with emergency managers, local officials, the general public and students, such as “train-the-trainer” workshops related to tsunami preparedness, vulnerability assessment workshops for local emergency managers, and graduate short courses.
Below are pages summarizing natural hazards research conducted by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Tsunamis
Coastal Change
Volcanoes
Earthquakes
Below are multimedia items produced by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Below are journal arcticles and reports published by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Variations in community evacuation potential related to average return periods in probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis
Influence of demand and capacity in transportation simulations of short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuations
Evaluating social vulnerability indicators: Criteria and their application to the Social Vulnerability Index
Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change
Assessing hazards and risks at the Department of the Interior—A workshop report
California’s exposure to volcanic hazards
The potential for damaging earthquakes, landslides, floods, tsunamis, and wildfires is widely recognized in California. The same cannot be said for volcanic eruptions, despite the fact that they occur in the state about as frequently as the largest earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. At least ten eruptions have taken place in the past 1,000 years, and future volcanic eruptions are inevitable.The
Population vulnerability to tsunami hazards informed by previous and projected disasters: A case study of American Samoa
Science for a risky world—A U.S. Geological Survey plan for risk research and applications
Assessing and communicating the impacts of climate change on the Southern California coast
Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts
Clusters of community exposure to coastal flooding hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios—implications for adaptation networks in the San Francisco Bay region
Pedestrian evacuation modeling to reduce vehicle use for distant tsunami evacuations in Hawaiʻi
Below are web applications created by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Oahu Tsunami Evacuation Dashboard
Tsunami waves created by earthquakes far from Hawai’i arrive hours later along Hawaiian shorelines but can be difficult to escape if everyone uses their cars to evacuate. Working with the Hawai’i Emergency Management Agency, researchers with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) used computer modeling to identify areas where people should be able to evacuate on foot in less than 15 minutes.
Below is software created by the Hazards Vulnerability Team
Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst Tool
The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst is an ArcGIS extension that estimates how long it would take for someone to travel on foot out of a hazardous area that was threatened by a sudden event such as a tsunami, flash flood, or volcanic lahar. It takes into account the elevation changes and the different types of landcover that a person would encounter along the way.
Below are news stories about the Hazards Vulnerability Team's science.
Below are partners who work with the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
- Overview
Our country faces a wide array of natural hazards that threaten its safety, security, economic well-being, and natural resources. To minimize future losses, communities need a clear understanding of how they are vulnerable to natural hazards and of strategies for increasing their resilience. Vulnerability and resilience are influenced by (1) how communities choose to use hazard-prone land, (2) pre-existing socioeconomic conditions, (3) likely future patterns of land change, and (4) current efforts to reduce and manage risks.
The objective of this project is to develop new ways of assessing and communicating community vulnerability and resilience to natural hazards. This work supports core elements of the USGS mission that focus on understanding land change and minimizing life loss and property damage from natural disasters. The project has completed work on all types of natural hazards, from sudden-onset extreme events (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcano lahars) to chronic events (sea level rise, coastal erosion).The community of Orting, Washington in a lahar-hazard zone beneath Mount Rainier Throughout the various research efforts and assessments, we have developed or improved methods for understanding and communicating societal vulnerability to natural hazards. This project has produced techniques-related articles on the following topics:
Geographical analysis
We use geographic information system (GIS) tools to estimate variations in community exposure of populations, land uses, infrastructures, and economic activities to natural hazards in various States. Exposure assessments have been completed based on maximum hazard zones, scenario-based zones, and comparisons of multiple hazard scenarios. GIS-based statistical analysis is also used to identify variations in demographic sensitivity across a community to natural hazards. We have also applied GIS tools to identify areas in a community with high hazards and societal assets, to demonstrate how landcover data can be used to characterize regional exposure to hazards and to improve population maps.
Tsunami-evacuation sign in the city of Nehalem, Oregon Spatial modeling
We use GIS to model pedestrian evacuation out of hazard zones, based on landcover, elevation, hazard, and population data. Results help local officials understand where successful evacuations are possible and where vertical-evacuation refuges may be warranted to help save lives. We also have developed GIS methods for helping to site vertical-evacuation refuges, as well as look at past disasters to compare fatality patterns and evacuation potential. To help others do their own pedestrian-evacuation modeling, we’ve created a GIS tool.
Stakeholder surveys
Community vulnerability to hazards cannot be completely understood using only GIS tools and socioeconomic data. Public perceptions and priorities related to hazards are also important elements. Therefore, we use community-based assessment workshops, community recovery forums, and surveys to better understand the human element in vulnerability.
A vulnerability assessment training for local emergency managers in Oregon Public engagement
An important part of this project has been training others in our methods so that they can carry out their own assessments. There have been several efforts of the years to share results and methods with emergency managers, local officials, the general public and students, such as “train-the-trainer” workshops related to tsunami preparedness, vulnerability assessment workshops for local emergency managers, and graduate short courses.
- Science
Below are pages summarizing natural hazards research conducted by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Tsunamis
The 2004 Indian Ocean, 2010 Chilean, and 2011 Tohoku disasters have shown how tsunamis are significant threats to coastal communities. To help U.S. coastal communities prepare for future tsunamis, the Hazards Vulnerability Team completed projects related to population exposure and sensitivity, pedestrian evacuation modeling, and vertical-evacuation decision support. A recent article of ours in the...Coastal Change
The continued devastation from recent hurricanes and tropical storms demonstrates the vulnerability of coastal communities to coastal-change hazards. Changes in sea level and storm-wave intensity are changing the areas that are prone to erosion and storm-related flooding. The Hazards Vulnerability Team has worked with USGS coastal researchers and partners to improve our understanding of community...Volcanoes
As the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption showed, volcanoes pose significant threats to U.S. communities. Potential hazards posed by U.S. volcanoes include tephra falls, pyroclastic flows and surges, VOG, ballistic projectiles, lahar and lava flows. In collaboration with researchers from the USGS Volcano Hazards Program, the Hazards Vulnerability Team worked on better understanding and communicating...Earthquakes
The U.S. Pacific Northwest is an active seismic zone, as evidenced by the 2001 Nisqually earthquake near Olympia (WA) and several other earthquakes in the 1990's. The Hazards Vulnerability Team worked with emergency managers and USGS earthquake researchers to better understand how communities are vulnerable to earthquake hazards. - Multimedia
Below are multimedia items produced by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
- Publications
Below are journal arcticles and reports published by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Filter Total Items: 36Variations in community evacuation potential related to average return periods in probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis
Tsunami risk management requires strategies that can address multiple sources with different recurrence intervals, wave-arrival times, and inundation extents. Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) provides a structured way to integrate multiple sources, including the uncertainties due to the natural variability and limited knowledge of sources. PTHA-based products relate to specific averageAuthorsNathan J. Wood, Jeff Peters, Rick I. Wilson, Jason T. Sherba, Kevin HenryInfluence of demand and capacity in transportation simulations of short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuations
Distant tsunamis require short-notice evacuations in coastal communities to minimize threats to life safety. Given the available time to evacuate and potential distances out of hazard zones, coastal transportation planners and emergency managers can expect large proportions of populations to evacuate using vehicles. A community-wide, short-notice, distant-tsunami evacuation is challenging becauseAuthorsNathan J. Wood, Kevin Henry, Jeff PetersEvaluating social vulnerability indicators: Criteria and their application to the Social Vulnerability Index
As a concept, social vulnerability describes combinations of social, cultural, economic, political, and institutional processes that shape socioeconomic differentials in the experience of and recovery from hazards. Quantitative measures of social vulnerability are widely used in research and practice. In this paper, we establish criteria for the evaluation of social vulnerability indicators and apAuthorsSeth Spielman, Joseph Tuccillo, David Folch, Amy Schweikert, Rebecca Davies, Nathan J. Wood, Eric TateDynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change
Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not compAuthorsPatrick L. Barnard, Li H. Erikson, Amy C. Foxgrover, Juliette A. Finzi Hart, Patrick W. Limber, Andrea C. O'Neill, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Nathan J. Wood, Maya K. Hayden, Jeanne M. JonesAssessing hazards and risks at the Department of the Interior—A workshop report
On February 27–28, 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey and Department of the Interior (DOI) Office of Emergency Management (OEM) hosted a workshop to gather input from DOI subject matter experts (SMEs), resource managers, facility managers, emergency managers, and law enforcement personnel. Workshop goals were to (1) determine how DOI Bureaus and Offices use risk information for strategic planning anAuthorsNathan Wood, Alice B. Pennaz, Kristin Ludwig, Jeanne Jones, Kevin Henry, Jason Sherba, Peter Ng, Jason Marineau, John JuskieCalifornia’s exposure to volcanic hazards
The potential for damaging earthquakes, landslides, floods, tsunamis, and wildfires is widely recognized in California. The same cannot be said for volcanic eruptions, despite the fact that they occur in the state about as frequently as the largest earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. At least ten eruptions have taken place in the past 1,000 years, and future volcanic eruptions are inevitable.The
AuthorsMargaret Mangan, Jessica Ball, Nathan Wood, Jamie L. Jones, Jeff Peters, Nina Abdollahian, Laura Dinitz, Sharon Blankenheim, Johanna Fenton, Cynthia PridmoreByVolcano Hazards Program, Volcano Science Center, California Volcano Observatory, Clear Lake Volcanic Field, Coso Volcanic Field, Lassen Volcanic Center, Long Valley Caldera, Mammoth Mountain, Medicine Lake, Mono Lake Volcanic Field, Mono-Inyo Craters, Mount Shasta, Salton Buttes, Soda Lakes, Ubehebe CratersPopulation vulnerability to tsunami hazards informed by previous and projected disasters: A case study of American Samoa
Population vulnerability from tsunamis is a function of the number and location of individuals in hazard zones and their ability to reach safety before wave arrival. Previous tsunami disasters can provide insight on likely evacuation behavior, but post-disaster assessments have not been used extensively in evacuation modeling. We demonstrate the utility of post-disaster assessments in pedestrian eAuthorsNathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Yoshiki Yamazaki, Kwok-Fai Cheung, Jacinta Brown, Jamie Jones, Nina AbdollahianScience for a risky world—A U.S. Geological Survey plan for risk research and applications
Executive SummaryNatural hazards—including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, landslides, hurricanes, droughts, floods, wildfires, geomagnetic storms, and pandemics—can wreak havoc on human communities, the economy, and natural resources for years following an initial event. Hazards can claim lives and cause billions of dollars in damage to homes and infrastructure as well as lost or comprAuthorsK. A. Ludwig, David W. Ramsey, Nathan J. Wood, A.B. Pennaz, Jonathan W. Godt, Nathaniel G. Plant, Nicolas Luco, Todd A. Koenig, Kenneth W. Hudnut, Donyelle K. Davis, Patricia R. BrightAssessing and communicating the impacts of climate change on the Southern California coast
Over the course of this and the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal erosion will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we currently know them. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies for projected increased levels of coastal flooding and erosion, coastal managerAuthorsLi H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Andrea C. O'Neill, Patrick Limber, Sean Vitousek, Juliette Finzi Hart, Maya Hayden, Jeanne M. Jones, Nathan J. Wood, Michael Fitzgibbon, Amy C. Foxgrover, Jessica LoveringProjected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts
This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically computingAuthorsLi H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Andrea C. O'Neill, Nathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Juliette Finzi Hart, Sean Vitousek, Patrick W. Limber, Maya Hayden, Michael Fitzgibbon, Jessica Lovering, Amy C. FoxgroverClusters of community exposure to coastal flooding hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios—implications for adaptation networks in the San Francisco Bay region
Sea level is projected to rise over the coming decades, further increasing the extent of flooding hazards in coastal communities. Efforts to address potential impacts from climate-driven coastal hazards have called for collaboration among communities to strengthen the application of best practices. However, communities currently lack practical tools for identifying potential partner communities baAuthorsMichelle Hummel, Nathan J. Wood, Amy Schweikert, Mark T. Stacey, Jeanne Jones, Patrick L. Barnard, Li H. EriksonPedestrian evacuation modeling to reduce vehicle use for distant tsunami evacuations in Hawaiʻi
Tsunami waves that arrive hours after generation elsewhere pose logistical challenges to emergency managers due to the perceived abundance of time and inclination of evacuees to use vehicles. We use coastal communities on the island of Oʻahu (Hawaiʻi, USA) to demonstrate regional evacuation modeling that can identify where successful pedestrian-based evacuations are plausible and where vehicle useAuthorsNathan J. Wood, Jamie Jones, Jeff Peters, Kevin Richards - Web Tools
Below are web applications created by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Oahu Tsunami Evacuation Dashboard
Tsunami waves created by earthquakes far from Hawai’i arrive hours later along Hawaiian shorelines but can be difficult to escape if everyone uses their cars to evacuate. Working with the Hawai’i Emergency Management Agency, researchers with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) used computer modeling to identify areas where people should be able to evacuate on foot in less than 15 minutes.
- Software
Below is software created by the Hazards Vulnerability Team
Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst Tool
The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst is an ArcGIS extension that estimates how long it would take for someone to travel on foot out of a hazardous area that was threatened by a sudden event such as a tsunami, flash flood, or volcanic lahar. It takes into account the elevation changes and the different types of landcover that a person would encounter along the way.
- News
Below are news stories about the Hazards Vulnerability Team's science.
- Partners
Below are partners who work with the Hazards Vulnerability Team.