Carbon Storage and Fluxes on Department of Defense Installations
USGS is studying the effects of land-use and land-cover changes, and the effects of ecosystem disturbance and climate change on carbon dynamics on Department of Defense lands.
The Science Issue and Relevance: Carbon sequestration, the process by which atmospheric carbon dioxide is removed and stored, can help mitigate climate change impacts. However, changes in land use and land cover can affect ecosystems' ability to effectively remove and/or store carbon. The USGS is assisting the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in developing a national spatially explicit simulation model capable of assessing changes in ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes for all Department of Defense (DOD) installations in the conterminous United States and Hawaii. The model will be developed using the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) approach developed by Sleeter et al. (2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022). Specifically, we will model the effects of selected land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes, and the effects of ecosystem disturbance and climate change on the storage and flux of carbon across DOD lands. Model results will consist of a range of spatial maps and tabular summaries which can be incorporated into a wide range of reporting and visualization systems.
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: The LUCAS model is a fully coupled model of land change and ecosystem carbon dynamics. LUCAS is a general-purpose modeling framework designed to explore the interactive effects of LULC change, land management, ecosystem disturbances, and climate variability and change on the storage and sequestration of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. The model typically utilizes a wide range of remote sensing-based inputs to characterize changes in the land surface, while utilizing an integrated gain-loss model to estimate the resulting changes in carbon stocks and fluxes. Due to its flexible design, the LUCAS model can be applied to a wide range of ecosystems and geographies. A key feature of the LUCAS approach is its ability to provide short to long-terms projections of changes in land use and land change and ecosystem carbon. At its core, LUCAS runs on the SyncroSim software platform (Apex Resource Management Solutions, 2024) using a state and transition simulation model (STSM, Daniel et al., 2016) to model changes in LULC and a coupled stock-flow model (Daniel et al., 2018) to simulate the movement of carbon between live and dead organic matter (DOM) pools for each state type.
Future Steps: Upon project completion, key findings with be shared with the project funder and relevant stakeholders who were engaged throughout the project. Spatially explicit maps of ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes will help DOD visualize the effects from disturbances and climate change and can inform potential land management decisions. We plan to publish our findings in a peer-reviewed journal to share the project with the scientific community.
USGS is studying the effects of land-use and land-cover changes, and the effects of ecosystem disturbance and climate change on carbon dynamics on Department of Defense lands.
The Science Issue and Relevance: Carbon sequestration, the process by which atmospheric carbon dioxide is removed and stored, can help mitigate climate change impacts. However, changes in land use and land cover can affect ecosystems' ability to effectively remove and/or store carbon. The USGS is assisting the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in developing a national spatially explicit simulation model capable of assessing changes in ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes for all Department of Defense (DOD) installations in the conterminous United States and Hawaii. The model will be developed using the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) approach developed by Sleeter et al. (2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022). Specifically, we will model the effects of selected land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes, and the effects of ecosystem disturbance and climate change on the storage and flux of carbon across DOD lands. Model results will consist of a range of spatial maps and tabular summaries which can be incorporated into a wide range of reporting and visualization systems.
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: The LUCAS model is a fully coupled model of land change and ecosystem carbon dynamics. LUCAS is a general-purpose modeling framework designed to explore the interactive effects of LULC change, land management, ecosystem disturbances, and climate variability and change on the storage and sequestration of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. The model typically utilizes a wide range of remote sensing-based inputs to characterize changes in the land surface, while utilizing an integrated gain-loss model to estimate the resulting changes in carbon stocks and fluxes. Due to its flexible design, the LUCAS model can be applied to a wide range of ecosystems and geographies. A key feature of the LUCAS approach is its ability to provide short to long-terms projections of changes in land use and land change and ecosystem carbon. At its core, LUCAS runs on the SyncroSim software platform (Apex Resource Management Solutions, 2024) using a state and transition simulation model (STSM, Daniel et al., 2016) to model changes in LULC and a coupled stock-flow model (Daniel et al., 2018) to simulate the movement of carbon between live and dead organic matter (DOM) pools for each state type.
Future Steps: Upon project completion, key findings with be shared with the project funder and relevant stakeholders who were engaged throughout the project. Spatially explicit maps of ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes will help DOD visualize the effects from disturbances and climate change and can inform potential land management decisions. We plan to publish our findings in a peer-reviewed journal to share the project with the scientific community.