What is a 1,000-year flood?
The term “1,000-year flood” means that, statistically speaking, a flood of that magnitude (or greater) has a 1 in 1,000 chance of occurring in any given year. In terms of probability, the 1,000-year flood has a 0.1% chance of happening in any given year.
These statistical values are based on observed data.
Related Content
Why do the values for the 100-year flood seem to change with every flood?
Does an increase in the 100-year flood estimate originate from climate or land-use change?
How can a 1,000-year rainfall not result in a 1,000-year flood?
We had a "100-year flood" two years in a row. How can that be?
Where can I find flood maps?
How are floods predicted?
What are the two types of floods?
Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency—Bulletin 17C
Accurate estimates of flood frequency and magnitude are a key component of any effective nationwide flood risk management and flood damage abatement program. In addition to accuracy, methods for estimating flood risk must be uniformly and consistently applied because management of the Nation’s water and related land resources is a collaborative...
England, John F.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Faber, Beth A.; Stedinger, Jery R.; Thomas, Wilbert O.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Kiang, Julie E.; Mason,, Robert R. Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency—Bulletin 17C
Accurate estimates of flood frequency and magnitude are a key component of any effective nationwide flood risk management and flood damage abatement program. In addition to accuracy, methods for estimating flood risk must be uniformly and consistently applied because management of the Nation’s water and related land resources is a collaborative...
England, John F.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Faber, Beth A.; Stedinger, Jery R.; Thomas, Wilbert O.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Kiang, Julie E.; Mason,, Robert R.
Popular myths about flooding in Western Washington
Floods are the most destructive natural hazard in the Nation, causing more deaths and financial loss in the 20th century than any other natural disaster. The most significant 20 riverine floods of the 20th century for which data are available have killed more than 1,843 people and caused more than $50 billion (uninflated) in damages (Perry, 2000...
Jones, Joseph L.
100-Year flood–it's all about chance
In the 1960's, the United States government decided to use the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flood as the basis for the National Flood Insurance Program. The 1-percent AEP flood was thought to be a fair balance between protecting the public and overly stringent regulation. Because the 1-percent AEP flood has a 1 in 100 chance of...
Holmes, Robert R.; Dinicola, Karen
The world's largest floods, past and present: Their causes and magnitudes
Floods are among the most powerful forces on earth. Human societies worldwide have lived and died with floods from the very beginning, spawning a prominent role for floods within legends, religions, and history. Inspired by such accounts, geologists, hydrologists, and historians have studied the role of floods on humanity and its supporting...
O'Connor, Jim E.; Costa, John E.
Large floods in the United States: where they happen and why
The spatial distribution of large gaged floods throughout the United States shows that the locations of most of the largest flows are related to specific combinations of regional climatology, topography, and basin size. Key factors include the general northward trend of decreasing atmospheric moisture, proximity to oceanic moisture sources such as...
O'Connor, Jim E.; Costa, John E.
Water-quantity and water-quality aspects of a 500-year flood - Nishnabotna River, southwest Iowa, June 1998
Flooding that occurred in southwest Iowa during June 15–17, 1998, was the worst flood ever recorded on the Nishnabotna River, exceeding the theoretical 500-year flood calculated from peak-flow records (1922 to present). This flood was a direct consequence of severe thunderstorm activity that caused more than 4 inches of rain to fall over a...
Kolpin, Dana W.; Fischer, Edward E.; Schnoebelen, Douglas J.
The "100-Year Flood"
Dinicola, Karen
Technique for estimating the 2- to 500-year flood discharges on unregulated streams in rural Missouri
A generalized least-squares regression technique was used to relate the 2- to 500-year flood discharges from 278 selected streamflow-gaging stations to statistically significant basin characteristics. The regression relations (estimating equations) were defined for three hydrologic regions (I, II, and III) in rural Missouri. Ordinary least-squares...
Alexander, Terry W.; Wilson, Gary L. Floods and flood plains
Moreland, Joe A.
USGS Science – Leading the Way for Preparedness
Learn About USGS Hazards Science and More About National Preparedness Month: The very nature of natural hazards means that they have the potential to impact a majority of Americans every year. USGS science provides part of the foundation for emergency preparedness whenever and wherever disaster strikes.
Study Links Major Floods in North America and Europe to Multi-Decade Ocean Patterns
The number of major floods in natural rivers across Europe and North America has not increased overall during the past 80 years, a recent study has concluded. Instead researchers found that the occurrence of major flooding in North America and Europe often varies with North Atlantic Ocean temperature patterns.
Stormy weather: How the USGS goes to work monitoring its effects
Atmospheric rivers are a global weather phenomenon that can bring large amounts of rain or snow to the U.S. West Coast each year. These rivers of wet air form over the Pacific Ocean near Hawaiʻi and pick up large amounts of moisture from the tropics and on their way to the West Coast. This moisture is carried in narrow bands across the Pacific Ocean to California, Oregon, Washington and Nevada.
Fragmented Patterns Seen in the Recent History of U.S. Floods
Some regional trends; no widespread national pattern
Measuring streamflow in fast moving floodwater.
USGS hydrographer measuring streamflow using a handheld Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter in fast moving floodwater Cajon Creek near Keenbrook, California.
NGS Aerial Imagery of Louisiana Flooding
Aerial imagery of flooding in Louisiana. Image created by Jason Burton, USGS, using aerial imagery taken by NOAA aviators on behalf of the National Geodetic Survey.
The Anatomy of Floods: The Causes and Development of 2011's Epic Flood Events
Flooding costs the United States more than $7 billion per year and claims more than 90 lives annually. During the Spring and Summer of 2011, the central U.S. experienced epic flooding, while Hurricane Irene followed by Tropical Storm Lee caused severe flooding in the east and northeastern U.S, setting numerous flood records at USGS streamgages. Dr. Robert Holmes discusses
Flood Waters Take USGS Streamgage Wind River near Crowheart, WY
Gagehouse at 06225500 Wind River near Crowheart WY right before it washed away.
Jul 01 2011; 13,900 ft3/s
Streamgages: The Silent Superhero
Whether you drink water from your tap, use electricity or canoe down your local river, chances are you benefit from USGS streamgage information. So what is a streamgage and what does it do for you? This CoreCast episode gives you the inside scoop on your silent superhero.
Transcript and captions available soon.
Interview: 2009 Fargo, ND Flooding
Interview with USGS crews regarding the 2009 flooding events in Fargo, ND.
Flooding in Finchfield, IA
Flooding of a house
St. John River at Ft. Kent, Maine Flood 2008
Understanding the forces that influence major floods can help inform the design of more resilient infrastructure. Image shows a major flood on the St. John River on the border of Maine, United States and New Brunswick, Canada, April 29, 2008. This site was part of the study. USGS Public Domain.
A photo of floodwaters reaching up to a street sign in Texas
A photo of floodwaters reaching up to a street sign in Texas.
A USGS crew prepares to measure Hurricane Harvey floodwaters
A USGS crew prepares to measure Hurricane Harvey floodwaters off of a bridge. Photo by Cassi Crow, USGS.