Land Change Science Program

Publications

Listed here are the most recent publications, reports and articles by the Land Change Science program.

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Filter Total Items: 431
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Year Published: 2018

Long-term persistence and fire resilience of oak shrubfields in dry conifer forests of northern New Mexico

Extensive high-severity fires are creating large shrubfields in many dry conifer forests of the interior western USA, raising concerns about forest-to-shrub conversion. This study evaluates the role of disturbance in shrubfield formation, maintenance and succession in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico. We compared the environmental conditions of...

Guiterman, Christopher H.; Margolis, Ellis; Allen, Craig D.; Falk, Donald A.; Swetnam, Thomas W.
Guiterman, C.H., Margolis, E.Q., Allen, C.D., Falk, D.A., and T.W. Swetnam. Ecosystems (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-017-0192-2

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Year Published: 2018

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to...

Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora
Feng, X., Uriarte, M., Gonzalez, G., Reed, S., Thompson, J., Zimmerman, J.K., and Murphy, L., 2017, Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling: Global Change Biology, v. (online), http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1111/gcb.13863.

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Year Published: 2018

High-resolution climate of the past ∼7300 years of coastal northernmost California: Results from diatoms, silicoflagellates, and pollen

Piston core TN062-O550, collected about 33 km offshore of Eureka, California, contains a high-resolution record of the climate and oceanography of coastal northernmost California during the past ∼7.34 kyr. Chronology established by nine AMS ages on a combination of planktic foraminifers, bivalve shell fragments, and wood yields a mean...

Barron, John A.; Bukry, David; Heusser, Linda E.; Addison, Jason A.; Alexander, Clark R.

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Year Published: 2017

Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for...

Lord, Natalie S.; Crucifix, Michel; Lunt, Daniel J.; Thorne, Mike C.; Bounceur, Nabila; Dowsett, Harry J.; O'Brien, Charlotte L.; Ridgwell, A.

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Year Published: 2017

Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota

Simulation models can represent complexities of the real world and serve as virtual laboratories for asking “what if…?” questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. However, simulation models have limited relevance to real-world applications when designed without input from people who could use the simulated scenarios to...

Miller, Brian W.; Symstad, Amy J.; Frid, Leonardo; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.

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Year Published: 2017

Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report

Public SummaryWe worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises.In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in...

Symstad, Amy J.; Miller, Brian W.; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ray, Andrea J.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.
Symstad, A.J., Miller, B.W., Friedman, J.M., Fisichelli, N.A., Ray, A.J., Rowland, Erika, and Schuurman, G.W., 2017, Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2017–1129, 22 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171129.

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Year Published: 2017

A case study examining the efficacy of drainage setbacks for limiting effects to wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region, USA

The enhancement of agricultural lands through the use of artificial drainage systems is a common practice throughout the United States, and recently the use of this practice has expanded in the Prairie Pothole Region. Many wetlands are afforded protection from the direct effects of drainage through regulation or legal agreements, and drainage...

Tangen, Brian; Finocchiaro, Raymond
Tangen, B.A., and Finocchiaro, R.G., 2017, A case study examining the efficacy of drainage setbacks for limiting effects to wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region, USA: Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management, v. 8, p. 513–529. doi:10.3996/022017-JFWM-012

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Year Published: 2017

Case studies of capacity building for biodiversity monitoring: Chapter 13

Monitoring the status and trends of species is critical to their conservation and management. However, the current state of biodiversity monitoring is insufficient to detect such for most species and habitats, other than in a few localised areas. One of the biggest obstacles to adequate monitoring is the lack of local capacity to carry out such...

Walters, Michele; Scholes, Robert J.; Schmeller, Dirk S.; Arvanitidis, Christos; Böhm, Monika; Brummitt, Neil; Chatzinikolaou, Eva; Costello, Mark John; Ding, Hui; Gill, Michael J.; Haase, Peter; Juillard, Romain; García-Moreno, Jaime; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Peng, Cui; Riginos, Corinna; Schmiedel, Ute; Simaika, John P.; Waterman, Carly; Wu, Jun; Xu, Haigen; Belnap, Jayne
Schmeller, D.S., Arvanitidis, C., Böhm, M., Brummitt, N., Chatzinikolaou, E., Costello, M.J., Ding, H., Gill, M.J., Haase, P., Julliard, R., García-Moreno, J., Pettorelli, N., Peng, C., Riginos, C., Schmiedel, U., Simaika, J.P., Waterman, C., Wu, J., Xu, H., and Belnap, J., 2017, Case studies of capacity building for biodiversity monitoring in Walters, M., and Scholes, R.J., The GEO Handbook on Biodiversity Observation Networks: Cham, Switzerland, Springer International Publishing, Springer Nature, p. 309-326, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-27288-7_13.

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Year Published: 2017

Reply to the discussion of Pinter et al. on ‘Fluvial system response to late Pleistocene-Holocene sea-level change on Santa Rosa Island, Channel Islands National Park, California’ by Schumann et al. (2016)

We appreciate the thoughtful discussion offered by Pinter et al. (2017) because it gives us an opportunity to elucidate some of the main points of our study, address some apparent misinterpretations, and recapitulate one of our conclusions. Pinter et al.’s discussion emphasizes and reinforces some of the important concepts we presented but also...

Schumann, R. Randall; Pigati, Jeffrey S.
Schumann, R.R., and Pigati, J.S., 2018, Reply to the discussion of Pinter et al. on ‘Fluvial system response to late Pleistocene-Holocene sea-level change on Santa Rosa Island, Channel Islands National Park, California’ by Schumann et al. (2016): Geomorphology, v. 301, p. 144-146.

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Year Published: 2017

Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin

Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we use a very large suite of synthetic climate scenarios in a statistical modeling framework to simultaneously evaluate how (1) average temperature and precipitation changes, (2)...

McAfee, Stephanie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; McCabe, Gregory J.
Stephanie A. McAfee, Gregory T. Pederson, Connie A. Woodhouse, Gregory J. McCabe, Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin, Climate Services, Volume 8, 2017, Pages 26-35, ISSN 2405-8807, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2017.10.003.

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Year Published: 2017

Organic carbon burial in global lakes and reservoirs

Burial in sediments removes organic carbon (OC) from the short-term biosphere-atmosphere carbon (C) cycle, and therefore prevents greenhouse gas production in natural systems. Although OC burial in lakes and reservoirs is faster than in the ocean, the magnitude of inland water OC burial is not well constrained. Here we generate the first global-...

Mendonça, Raquel; Müller, Roger A.; Clow, David W.; Verpoorter, Charles; Raymond, Peter; Tranvik, Lars; Sobek, Sebastian
Mendonça, R., Müller, R.A., Clow, D.W., Verpoorter, C., Raymond, P., Tranavik, L.J., Sobek, S., 2017, Organic Carbon Burial in Global Lakes and Reservoirs: Nature Communications, Springer Nature,

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Year Published: 2017

Late Quaternary uplift along the North America-Caribbean plate boundary: Evidence from the sea level record of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba

The tectonic setting of the North America-Caribbean plate boundary has been studied intensively, but some aspects are still poorly understood, particularly along the Oriente fault zone. Guantanamo Bay, southern Cuba, is considered to be on a coastline that is under a transpressive tectonic regime along this zone, and is hypothesized to have a low...

Muhs, Daniel R.; Schweig, Eugene S.; Simmons, Kathleen; Halley, Robert B.
Muhs, D.R., Schweig, E.S., Simmons, K.R., Halley, R.B., 2017. Late Quaternary uplift along the North America-Caribbean plate boundary: Evidence from the sea level record of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Quaternary Science Reviews, v. 178, p. 54-76.