Earthquake Hazards Program

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Filter Total Items: 2,118
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Year Published: 2021

Characterizing fault roughness—Are faults rougher at long or short wavelengths?

Changes in fault roughness with scale, “scaling,” is the topic of this report; changes are considered using a general power law relation between some measure of surface height, H, and another of length, L, H=kLn, where k is a constant and n is an exponent that characterizes the scaling. Extensive profile measurements of natural fault surfaces show...

Beeler, Nicholas M.
Beeler, N.M., 2021, Characterizing fault roughness—Are faults rougher at long or short wavelengths?: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2020–1134, 15 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201134.

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Year Published: 2021

Field response and surface rupture characteristics of the 2020 M6.5 Monte Cristo Range earthquake, central Walker Lane, Nevada

The M 6.5 Monte Cristo Range earthquake that occurred in the central Walker Lane on 15 May 2020 was the largest earthquake in Nevada in 66 yr and resulted in a multidisciplinary scientific field response. The earthquake was the result of left‐lateral slip along largely unmapped parts of the Candelaria fault, one of a series of east–...

Koehler, Richard D; Dee, Seth; Elliott, Austin John; Hatem, Alexandra Elise; Pickering, Alexandra; Pierce, Ian; Seitz, Gordon G.

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Year Published: 2021

Quantifying nuisance ground motion thresholds for induced earthquakes

Hazards from induced earthquakes are a growing concern with a need for effective management. One aspect of that concern is the “nuisance” from unexpected ground motions, which have the potential to cause public alarm and discontent. In this article, we borrow earthquake engineering concepts to quantify the chance of building damage states and...

Schultz, Ryan; Quitoriano, Vince; Wald, David J.; Beroza, Gregory C.

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Year Published: 2021

Which earthquake accounts matter?

Earthquake observations contributed by human observers provide an invaluable source of information to investigate both historical and modern earthquakes. Commonly, the observers whose eyewitness accounts are available to scientists are a self‐selected minority of those who experience a given earthquake. As such these may not be representative of...

Hough, Susan E.; Martin, Stacey S.

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Year Published: 2021

A geology and geodesy based model of dynamic earthquake rupture on the Rodgers Creek‐Hayward‐Calaveras Fault System, California

The Hayward fault in California's San Francisco Bay area produces large earthquakes, with the last occurring in 1868. We examine how physics‐based dynamic rupture modeling can be used to numerically simulate large earthquakes on not only the Hayward fault, but also its connected companions to the north and south, the Rodgers Creek and Calaveras...

Harris, Ruth A.; Barall, Michael; Lockner, David A.; Moore, Diane E.; Ponce, David A.; Graymer, Russell; Funning, Gareth J.; Morrow, Carolyn A.; Kyriakopoulos, Christodoulos; Eberhart-Phillips, Donna

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Year Published: 2021

B-positive: A robust estimator of aftershock magnitude distribution in transiently incomplete catalogs

The earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution is characterized by the b-value, which describes the relative frequency of large versus small earthquakes. It has been suggested that changes in b-value after an earthquake can be used to discriminate whether that earthquake is part of a foreshock sequence or a more typical mainshock-...

Van Der Elst, Nicholas

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Year Published: 2021

Toward physics-based nonergodic PSHA: A prototype fully-deterministic seismic hazard model for southern California

We present a nonergodic framework for probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA) that is constructed entirely of deterministic, physical models. The use of deterministic ground‐motion simulations in PSHA calculations is not new (e.g., CyberShake), but prior studies relied on kinematic rupture generators to extend empirical earthquake rupture...

Milner, Kevin R.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Goulet, Christine A.; Richards-Dinger, Keith B.; Callaghan, Scott; Jordan, Thomas H.; Dieterich, James H.; Field, Edward H.

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Year Published: 2021

A subset of CyberShake ground-motion time series for response-history analysis

This manuscript describes a subset of CyberShake numerically simulated ground motions that were selected and vetted for use in engineering response-history analyses. Ground motions were selected that have seismological properties and response spectra representative of conditions in the Los Angeles area, based on disaggregation of seismic hazard....

Baker, Jack W.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Goulet, Christine A.; Luco, Nicolas; Teng, Ganyu

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Year Published: 2021

Evaluation of simulated ground motions using probabilistic seismic demand analysis: CyberShake (ver. 15.12) simulations for Ordinary Standard Bridges

There is a need for benchmarking and validating simulated ground motions in order for them to be utilized by the engineering community. Such validation may be geared towards a specific ground motion simulation method, a target engineering application, and a specific location; the validation presented herein focuses on a bridge engineering...

Fayaz, Jawad; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Zareian, Farzin

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Year Published: 2021

Apparent earthquake rupture predictability

To what extent can the future evolution of an ongoing earthquake rupture be predicted? This question of fundamental scientific and practical importance has recently been addressed by studies of teleseismic source time functions (STFs) but reaching contrasting conclusions. One study concludes that the initial portion of STFs is the same regardless...

Meier, M.-A.; Ampuero, P.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Page, Morgan T.

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Year Published: 2021

A unified model of crustal stress heterogeneity from borehole breakouts and earthquake focal mechanisms

Observations of crustal stress orientation from the regional inversion of earthquake focal mechanisms often conflict with those from borehole breakouts, possibly indicating local stress heterogeneity, either laterally or with depth. To investigate this heterogeneity, we compiled SHmax estimates from previous studies for 57 near‐vertical boreholes...

Luttrell, Karen; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

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Year Published: 2021

Spatial clustering of aftershocks impacts the performance of physics‐based earthquake forecasting models

I explore why physics‐based models of earthquake triggering rarely outperform statistical models in prospective testing, outside of limited spatial‐temporal windows. Pseudo‐prospective tests on suites of synthetic aftershock sequences show that a major factor is the level of unmodeled spatial clustering of the direct aftershocks triggered by the...

Hardebeck, Jeanne L.