Publications
Listed here are publications, reports and articles by the Land Change Science Program in the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area.
Filter Total Items: 1145
Rapidly changing range limits in a warming world: Critical data limitations and knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of mangrove range dynamics in the southeastern USA Rapidly changing range limits in a warming world: Critical data limitations and knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of mangrove range dynamics in the southeastern USA
Climate change is altering species’ range limits and transforming ecosystems. For example, warming temperatures are leading to the range expansion of tropical, cold-sensitive species at the expense of their cold-tolerant counterparts. In some temperate and subtropical coastal wetlands, warming winters are enabling mangrove forest encroachment into salt marsh, which is a major regime...
Authors
Remi Bardou, Michael Osland, Steven Scyphers, Christine C. Shepard, Karen Aerni, Jahson Alemu, Robert Crimian, Richard Day, Nicholas Enwright, Laura Feher, Sarah Gibbs, Kiera O’Donnell, Savannah Swinea, Kalaina Thorne, Sarit Truskey, Anna Armitage, Ronald J. Baker, Joshua Breithaupt, Kyle Cavanaugh, Just Cebrian, Karen Cummins, Donna Devlin, Jacob Doty, William Ellis, Ilka Feller, Christopher A. Gabler, Yiyang Kang, David Kaplan, John Kennedy, Ken Krauss, Margaret Lamont, Kam-biu Liu, Melinda Martinez, Ashley Matheny, Giovanna McClenachan, Karen McKee, Irving Mendelssohn, Thomas Michot, Christopher J. Miller, Jena Moon, Ryan Moyer, James A. Nelson, Richard O’Connor, James Pahl, Jonathan Pitchford, C. Edward Proffitt, Tracy Quirk, Kara Radabaugh, Whitney Scheffel, Delbert Smee, Caitlin Snyder, Eric Sparks, Kathleen M. Swanson, William Vervaeke, Carolyn Weaver, Jonathan A Willis, Erik Yando, Qiang Yao, A. Hughes
Achieving water quality goals in the Chesapeake Bay: A comprehensive evaluation of system response Achieving water quality goals in the Chesapeake Bay: A comprehensive evaluation of system response
A Comprehensive Evaluation of System Response Achieving Water Quality Goals in the Chesapeake Bay: A Comprehensive Evaluation of System Response (CESR) includes an evaluation of why progress toward meeting the TMDL and water quality standards has been slower than expected and offers options for how progress can be accelerated. This report is a summation of a three year investigation into...
Plant migration due to winter climate change: Range expansion of tropical invasive plants in response to warming winters Plant migration due to winter climate change: Range expansion of tropical invasive plants in response to warming winters
Warming winters due to climate change can facilitate the range expansion of invasive non-native species. In the southeastern United States, the frequency and intensity of extreme winter temperatures determines the northern range limits of many tropical organisms including many species of invasive non-native plants. However, the effects of winter climate change on invasive species’ range...
Authors
Michael Osland, Bogdan Chivoiu, Laura Feher, Leah Dale, Deah Lieurance, Wesley Daniel, Jessica Spencer
Multi-proxy record of ocean-climate variability during the last 2 millennia on the Mackenzie Shelf, Beaufort Sea Multi-proxy record of ocean-climate variability during the last 2 millennia on the Mackenzie Shelf, Beaufort Sea
A 2,000 year-long oceanographic history, in sub-centennial resolution, from a Canadian Beaufort Sea continental shelf site (60meters water depth) near the Mackenzie River outlet is reconstructed from ostracode and foraminifera faunal assemblages, shell stable isotopes (delta 18O, delta 13C) and sediment biogenic silica. The chronology of three sediment cores making up the composite...
Authors
Laura Gemery, Thomas Cronin, Lee Cooper, Lucy Roberts, Lloyd D Keigwin, Jason Addison, Melanie Leng, Peigen Lin, Cedric Magen, Marci Marot, Valerie Schwartz
Marmots do not drink coffee: Human urine contributions to the nitrogen budget of a popular national park destination Marmots do not drink coffee: Human urine contributions to the nitrogen budget of a popular national park destination
Reactive nitrogen (Nr) concentrations are higher than expected for mountain lakes in Rocky Mountain National Park, and for many years, high Nr concentrations have been attributed to atmospheric Nr deposition from regional and more distant emission sources, including combustion of fossil fuels and agricultural activities. Here, we estimated the contribution from a very local source, that...
Authors
Jill Baron, Timothy Weinmann, Varun Acharya, Caitlin Charlton, Koren Nydick, Scott Esser
Modeling impacts of saltwater intrusion on methane and nitrous oxide emissions in tidal forested wetlands Modeling impacts of saltwater intrusion on methane and nitrous oxide emissions in tidal forested wetlands
Emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) from soils to the atmosphere can offset the benefits of carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation. While past study has suggested that both CH4 and N2O emissions from tidal freshwater forested wetlands (TFFW) are generally low, the impacts of coastal droughts and drought-induced saltwater intrusion on CH4 and N2O emissions...
Authors
Hongqing Wang, Zhaohua Dai, Ken Krauss, Carl Trettin, Gregory Noe, Andrew Burton, Eric Ward
Regional streamflow drought forecasting in the Colorado River Basin using Deep Neural Network models Regional streamflow drought forecasting in the Colorado River Basin using Deep Neural Network models
Process-based, large-scale (e.g., conterminous United States [CONUS]) hydrologic models have struggled to achieve reliable streamflow drought performance in arid regions and for low-flow periods. Deep learning has recently seen broad implementation in streamflow prediction and forecasting research projects throughout the world with performance often equaling or exceeding that of process...
Authors
Scott Hamshaw, Phillip Goodling, Konrad Hafen, John C. Hammond, Ryan R. McShane, Roy Sando, Apoorva Shastry, Caelan Simeone, David Watkins, Elaheh White, Michael Wieczorek
Synthesis of climate and ecological science to support grassland management priorities in the North Central Region Synthesis of climate and ecological science to support grassland management priorities in the North Central Region
Grasslands in the Great Plains are of ecological, economic, and cultural importance in the United States. In response to a need to understand how climate change and variability will impact grassland ecosystems and their management in the 21st century, the U.S. Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center led a synthesis of peer-reviewed climate and ecology literature...
Authors
Christine Miller Hesed, Heather Yocum, Imtiaz Rangwala, Amy Symstad, Jeff Martin, Kevin Ellison, David Wood, Marissa Ahlering, Katherine Chase, Shelley Crausbay, Ana Davidson, Julie Elliott, Jim Giocomo, David Hoover, Toni Klemm, David Lightfoot, Owen McKenna, Brian Miller, Danika Mosher, R. Nagy, Jesse Nippert, Jeremy Pittman, Lauren Porensky, Jilmarie Stephens, Alexander Zale
Holocene vegetation dynamics of circum-Arctic permafrost peatlands Holocene vegetation dynamics of circum-Arctic permafrost peatlands
Vegetation shifts in circum-Arctic permafrost peatlands drive feedbacks with important consequences for peatland carbon budgets and the extent of permafrost thaw under changing climate. Recent shrub expansion across Arctic tundra environments has led to an increase in above-ground biomass, but the long-term spatiotemporal dynamics of shrub and tree growth in circum-Arctic peatlands...
Authors
Richard Fewster, Paul J. Morris, Graeme Swindles, Ruza Ivanovic, Claire Treat, Miriam Jones
Foraging behavior of Raramuri Criollo vs. Angus cattle grazing California Chaparral and Colorado Plateau shrublands Foraging behavior of Raramuri Criollo vs. Angus cattle grazing California Chaparral and Colorado Plateau shrublands
Selecting livestock genetics adapted to arid environments, such as Criollo cattle, is one of several strategies recommended for decreasing the vulnerability to climate change of ranching in the southwestern USA. Our objective was to determine whether desirable foraging traits of Criollo cattle previously documented in the Chihuahuan Desert, held true in two of the most climate-vulnerable
Authors
Danielle Duni, Matthew McIntosh, Shelemia Nyamuryekung’e, Andres Cibils, Michael Duniway, Richard Estell, Sheri Spiegal, Alfredo Gonzalez, Melakeneh Gedefaw, Matthew Redd, Robert Paulin, Caitriana Steele, Santiago Utsumi, Andres Perea
Droughting a megadrought: Ecological consequences of a decade of experimental drought atop aridification on the Colorado Plateau Droughting a megadrought: Ecological consequences of a decade of experimental drought atop aridification on the Colorado Plateau
Global dryland vegetation communities will likely change as ongoing drought conditions shift regional climates towards a more arid future. Additional aridification of drylands can impact plant and ground cover, biogeochemical cycles, and plant-soil feedbacks, yet how and when these crucial ecosystem components will respond to drought intensification requires further investigation. Using...
Authors
Rebecca Finger-Higgens, Tara Bishop, Jayne Belnap, Erika Geiger, Edmund Grote, David Hoover, Sasha C. Reed, Michael Duniway
Variable effects of long-term livestock grazing across the western United States suggest diverse approaches are needed to meet global change challenges Variable effects of long-term livestock grazing across the western United States suggest diverse approaches are needed to meet global change challenges
Aims Livestock production is the most widespread land use globally and occurs across a diverse set of ecosystems. Variability in long-term livestock grazing impacts across ecosystems is poorly characterized, particularly at larger spatial scales, despite strong relationships with various ecosystem services related to soil fertility and stabilization and vegetation productivity. Here we...
Authors
Stella M. Copeland, David Hoover, David Augustine, Jonathan Bates, Chad Boyd, Kirk Davies, Justin D. Derner, Michael Duniway, Lauren M. Porensky, Lance Vermeire