Jason Kean
My research focuses on the processes controlling debris-flow initiation and growth, particularly after wildfire, but also in unburned areas.
This research includes a field component that obtains direct measurements of debris flows in natural settings, a modeling component that seeks to explain the observations, and an applied component that focuses on assessment of debris-flow hazards. My previous research at the USGS focused on river mechanics, including bank erosion and the development of model-based approaches to gage streams and rivers.
Education and Certifications
University of Colorado, Ph.D., 2003, Civil Engineering
University of Colorado, M.S., 1998, Civil Engineering
Cornell University, B.S., 1994, Civil Engineering
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 18
Debris-flow inundation and damage data from the 9 January 2018 Montecito Debris-Flow Event
On 9 January 2018, intense rain above Montecito, California triggered a series of debris flows from steep catchments in the Santa Ynez Mountains. These catchments were burned three weeks earlier by the 1140 km2 Thomas Fire. After exiting the mountain front, the debris flows traveled over 3 km down a series of alluvial fans, killing 23 people and damaging over 400 homes. To understand the flow dyna
Hillslope hydrologic monitoring data following the 2009 Station Fire, Los Angeles County, California, November 2015 to June 2017
This data release includes time-series data from two monitoring stations in drainage basins burned in the 2009 Station Fire, Los Angeles County, California. Both stations are located near the upper boundary of their respective watershed and were installed to study the effects of vegetation recovery on hillslope hydrology and debris-flow occurrence. The data include 1-minute time series of rainfall
Post-wildfire debris-flow monitoring data, 2014 Silverado Fire, Orange County, California, November 2014 to January 2016
This data release includes time-series data from two monitoring stations in a small drainage basin burned in the 2014 Silverado Fire, Orange County, California. One station (upper station) is located in the headwaters of the study area (33 4539.10N, 117 3517.48W, WGS84). The other station (lower station) is located at the outlet of the study area (33 4504.61N, 117 3512.54W). The data were collecte
Post-wildfire debris-flow monitoring data, Arroyo Seco, 2009 Station Fire, Los Angeles County, California, November 2009 to March 2010.
This data release includes time-series data from a monitoring site located in a small drainage basin in the Arroyo Seco watershed in Los Angeles County, CA, USA (N3788964 E389956, UTM Zone 11, NAD83). The site was established after the 2009 Station Fire and recorded a series debris flows in the first winter after the fire. The data include three types of time-series: (1) 1-minute time series of ra
Map and model input and output data covering N 40.0 40.375 and W 105.25 105.625 in the northern Colorado Front Range for analysis of debris flow initiation resulting from the storm of September 9 13, 2013
Rainfall on 913 September 2013 triggered at least 1,138 debris flows in a 3430 km2 area of the Colorado Front Range. Most flows were triggered in response to two intense rainfall periods, one 12.5-hour-long period on 1112 September, and one 8-hour-long period on 12 September. Data in this project pertain to an area bounded by N 40.0 40.375 and W 105.25 105.625 which includes many of the areas wh
Map data and Unmanned Aircraft System imagery from the May 25, 2014 West Salt Creek rock avalanche in western Colorado
On May 25, 2014, a rain-on-snow induced rock avalanche occurred in the West Salt Creek Valley on the northern flank of Grand Mesa in western Colorado. The avalanche traveled 4.6 km down the confined valley, killing 3 people. The avalanche was rare for the contiguous U.S. because of its large size (54.5 Mm3) and long travel distance. To understand the avalanche failure sequence, mechanisms, and mob
Filter Total Items: 87
Postfire debris flow hazards—Tips to keep you safe
Often referred to as “mudflows,” debris flows are a type of landslide made up of a rapidly moving mixture of dirt, rocks, trees, and water (and sometimes ash) that start on a hillside and travel downvalley. They can easily overflow channels and severely damage houses, vehicles, or other structures. Areas burned by wildfires are especially susceptible to these hazards, which can be triggered by sto
Authors
Steven Sobieszczyk, Jason W. Kean
Multi-model comparison of computed debris flow runout for the 9 January 2018 Montecito, California post-wildfire event
Hazard assessment for post-wildfire debris flows, which are common in the steep terrain of the western United States, has focused on the susceptibility of upstream basins to generate debris flows. However, reducing public exposure to this hazard also requires an assessment of hazards in downstream areas that might be inundated during debris flow runout. Debris flow runout models are widely availab
Authors
Katherine R. Barnhart, Ryan P. Jones, David L. George, Brian W. McArdell, Francis K. Rengers, Dennis M. Staley, Jason W. Kean
Movement of sediment through a burned landscape: Sediment volume observations and model comparisons in the San Gabriel Mountains, California, USA
Post-wildfire changes to hydrologic and geomorphic systems can lead to widespread sediment redistribution. Understanding how sediment moves through a watershed is crucial for assessing hazards, developing debris flow inundation models, engineering sediment retention solutions, and quantifying the role that disturbances play in landscape evolution. In this study, we used terrestrial and airborne li
Authors
Francis K. Rengers, Luke A. McGuire, Jason W. Kean, Dennis M. Staley, Mariana Dobre, Peter R. Robichaud, Tyson Swetnam
Postwildfire soil‐hydraulic recovery and the persistence of debris flow hazards
Deadly and destructive debris flows often follow wildfire, but understanding of changes in the hazard potential with time since fire is poor. We develop a simulation‐based framework to quantify changes in the hydrologic triggering conditions for debris flows as postwildfire infiltration properties evolve through time. Our approach produces time‐varying rainfall intensity‐duration thresholds for ru
Authors
Matthew A. Thomas, Francis K. Rengers, Jason W. Kean, Luke A. McGuire, Dennis M. Staley, Katherine R. Barnhart, Brian A. Ebel
U.S. Geological Survey wildland fire science strategic plan, 2021–26
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Wildland Fire Science Strategic Plan defines critical, core fire science capabilities for understanding fire-related and fire-responsive earth system processes and patterns, and informing management decision making. Developed by USGS fire scientists and executive leadership, and informed by conversations with external stakeholders, the Strategic Plan is aligned wi
Authors
Paul F. Steblein, Rachel A. Loehman, Mark P. Miller, Joseph R. Holomuzki, Suzanna C. Soileau, Matthew L. Brooks, Mia Drane-Maury, Hannah M. Hamilton, Jason W. Kean, Jon E. Keeley, Robert R. Mason,, Alexa McKerrow, James Meldrum, Edmund B. Molder, Sheila F. Murphy, Birgit Peterson, Geoffrey S. Plumlee, Douglas J. Shinneman, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Alison York
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Natural Hazards Mission Area, Science Synthesis, Analysis and Research Program, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Program, Alaska Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Geology, Geophysics, and Geochemistry Science Center, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Wildland Fire Science
Forecasting the frequency and magnitude of postfire debris flows across southern California
Southern California has a long history of damaging debris flows after wildfire. Despite recurrent loss, forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of postfire debris flows are not available for the region like they are for earthquakes. Instead, debris flow hazards are typically assessed in a reactive manner after wildfires. Such assessments are crucial for evaluating debris flow risk by postfire eme
Authors
Jason W. Kean, Dennis M. Staley
Time since burning and rainfall characteristics impact post-fire debris flow initiation and magnitude
The extreme heat from wildfire alters soil properties and incinerates vegetation, leading to changes in infiltration capacity, ground cover, soil erodibility, and rainfall interception. These changes promote elevated rates of runoff and sediment transport that increase the likelihood of runoff-generated debris flows. Debris flows are most common in the year immediately following wildfire, but temp
Authors
Luke A. McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Nina S. Oakley, Jason W. Kean, Dennis M. Staley, Hui Tang, Marian de Orla-Barile, Ann M. Youberg
Progress and lessons learned from responses to landslide disasters
Landslides have the incredible power to transform landscapes and also, tragically, to cause disastrous societal impacts. Whereas the mechanics and effects of many landslide disasters have been analyzed in detail, the means by which landslide experts respond to these events has garnered much less attention. Herein, we evaluate nine landslide response case histories conducted by the U.S. Geological
Authors
Brian D. Collins, Mark E. Reid, Jeffrey A. Coe, Jason W. Kean, Rex L. Baum, Randall W. Jibson, Jonathan W. Godt, Stephen Slaughter, Greg M. Stock
Measuring basal force fluctuations of debris flows using seismic recordings and empirical green's functions
We present a novel method for measuring the fluctuating basal normal and shear stresses of debris flows by using along‐channel seismic recordings. Our method couples a simple parameterization of a debris flow as a seismic source with direct measurements of seismic path effects using empirical Green's functions generated with a force hammer. We test this method using two large‐scale (8 and 10 m3) e
Authors
Kate E. Allstadt, Maxime Farin, Richard M. Iverson, Maciej Obryk, Jason W. Kean, Victor C. Tsai, Thomas D Rapstine, Matthew Logan
The recurrence interval of post-fire debris-flow generating rainfall in the southwestern United States
In the southwestern United States, post-fire debris flows commonly initiate during short bursts of intense rainfall. To date, the frequency of the rainfall rates has not been quantified. Here, we combine an existing database of debris-flow occurrences and corresponding peak storm intensities with a geospatial library of rainfall recurrence interval (RI) information and climate type to determine th
Authors
Dennis M. Staley, Jason W. Kean, Francis K. Rengers
Landslides after wildfire: Initiation, magnitude, and mobility
In the semiarid Southwestern USA, wildfires are commonly followed by runoff-generated debris flows because wildfires remove vegetation and ground cover, which reduces soil infiltration capacity and increases soil erodibility. At a study site in Southern California, we initially observed runoff-generated debris flows in the first year following fire. However, at the same site three years after the
Authors
Francis K. Rengers, Luke McGuire, Nina S. Oakley, Jason W. Kean, Dennis M. Staley, Hui Tang
The impact of sediment supply on the initiation and magnitude of runoff-generated debris flows
Rainfall intensity‐duration (ID) thresholds are commonly used to assess the potential for runoff‐generated debris flows, but the sensitivity of these thresholds to sediment supply, which can change rapidly with time, is relatively unexplored. Furthermore, debris flows often self‐organize into distinct surges, but the factors controlling the magnitude and frequency of these surges, including sedime
Authors
Hui Tang, Luke A. McGuire, Jason W. Kean, Joel B. Smith
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 18
Debris-flow inundation and damage data from the 9 January 2018 Montecito Debris-Flow Event
On 9 January 2018, intense rain above Montecito, California triggered a series of debris flows from steep catchments in the Santa Ynez Mountains. These catchments were burned three weeks earlier by the 1140 km2 Thomas Fire. After exiting the mountain front, the debris flows traveled over 3 km down a series of alluvial fans, killing 23 people and damaging over 400 homes. To understand the flow dyna
Hillslope hydrologic monitoring data following the 2009 Station Fire, Los Angeles County, California, November 2015 to June 2017
This data release includes time-series data from two monitoring stations in drainage basins burned in the 2009 Station Fire, Los Angeles County, California. Both stations are located near the upper boundary of their respective watershed and were installed to study the effects of vegetation recovery on hillslope hydrology and debris-flow occurrence. The data include 1-minute time series of rainfall
Post-wildfire debris-flow monitoring data, 2014 Silverado Fire, Orange County, California, November 2014 to January 2016
This data release includes time-series data from two monitoring stations in a small drainage basin burned in the 2014 Silverado Fire, Orange County, California. One station (upper station) is located in the headwaters of the study area (33 4539.10N, 117 3517.48W, WGS84). The other station (lower station) is located at the outlet of the study area (33 4504.61N, 117 3512.54W). The data were collecte
Post-wildfire debris-flow monitoring data, Arroyo Seco, 2009 Station Fire, Los Angeles County, California, November 2009 to March 2010.
This data release includes time-series data from a monitoring site located in a small drainage basin in the Arroyo Seco watershed in Los Angeles County, CA, USA (N3788964 E389956, UTM Zone 11, NAD83). The site was established after the 2009 Station Fire and recorded a series debris flows in the first winter after the fire. The data include three types of time-series: (1) 1-minute time series of ra
Map and model input and output data covering N 40.0 40.375 and W 105.25 105.625 in the northern Colorado Front Range for analysis of debris flow initiation resulting from the storm of September 9 13, 2013
Rainfall on 913 September 2013 triggered at least 1,138 debris flows in a 3430 km2 area of the Colorado Front Range. Most flows were triggered in response to two intense rainfall periods, one 12.5-hour-long period on 1112 September, and one 8-hour-long period on 12 September. Data in this project pertain to an area bounded by N 40.0 40.375 and W 105.25 105.625 which includes many of the areas wh
Map data and Unmanned Aircraft System imagery from the May 25, 2014 West Salt Creek rock avalanche in western Colorado
On May 25, 2014, a rain-on-snow induced rock avalanche occurred in the West Salt Creek Valley on the northern flank of Grand Mesa in western Colorado. The avalanche traveled 4.6 km down the confined valley, killing 3 people. The avalanche was rare for the contiguous U.S. because of its large size (54.5 Mm3) and long travel distance. To understand the avalanche failure sequence, mechanisms, and mob
Filter Total Items: 87
Postfire debris flow hazards—Tips to keep you safe
Often referred to as “mudflows,” debris flows are a type of landslide made up of a rapidly moving mixture of dirt, rocks, trees, and water (and sometimes ash) that start on a hillside and travel downvalley. They can easily overflow channels and severely damage houses, vehicles, or other structures. Areas burned by wildfires are especially susceptible to these hazards, which can be triggered by sto
Authors
Steven Sobieszczyk, Jason W. Kean
Multi-model comparison of computed debris flow runout for the 9 January 2018 Montecito, California post-wildfire event
Hazard assessment for post-wildfire debris flows, which are common in the steep terrain of the western United States, has focused on the susceptibility of upstream basins to generate debris flows. However, reducing public exposure to this hazard also requires an assessment of hazards in downstream areas that might be inundated during debris flow runout. Debris flow runout models are widely availab
Authors
Katherine R. Barnhart, Ryan P. Jones, David L. George, Brian W. McArdell, Francis K. Rengers, Dennis M. Staley, Jason W. Kean
Movement of sediment through a burned landscape: Sediment volume observations and model comparisons in the San Gabriel Mountains, California, USA
Post-wildfire changes to hydrologic and geomorphic systems can lead to widespread sediment redistribution. Understanding how sediment moves through a watershed is crucial for assessing hazards, developing debris flow inundation models, engineering sediment retention solutions, and quantifying the role that disturbances play in landscape evolution. In this study, we used terrestrial and airborne li
Authors
Francis K. Rengers, Luke A. McGuire, Jason W. Kean, Dennis M. Staley, Mariana Dobre, Peter R. Robichaud, Tyson Swetnam
Postwildfire soil‐hydraulic recovery and the persistence of debris flow hazards
Deadly and destructive debris flows often follow wildfire, but understanding of changes in the hazard potential with time since fire is poor. We develop a simulation‐based framework to quantify changes in the hydrologic triggering conditions for debris flows as postwildfire infiltration properties evolve through time. Our approach produces time‐varying rainfall intensity‐duration thresholds for ru
Authors
Matthew A. Thomas, Francis K. Rengers, Jason W. Kean, Luke A. McGuire, Dennis M. Staley, Katherine R. Barnhart, Brian A. Ebel
U.S. Geological Survey wildland fire science strategic plan, 2021–26
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Wildland Fire Science Strategic Plan defines critical, core fire science capabilities for understanding fire-related and fire-responsive earth system processes and patterns, and informing management decision making. Developed by USGS fire scientists and executive leadership, and informed by conversations with external stakeholders, the Strategic Plan is aligned wi
Authors
Paul F. Steblein, Rachel A. Loehman, Mark P. Miller, Joseph R. Holomuzki, Suzanna C. Soileau, Matthew L. Brooks, Mia Drane-Maury, Hannah M. Hamilton, Jason W. Kean, Jon E. Keeley, Robert R. Mason,, Alexa McKerrow, James Meldrum, Edmund B. Molder, Sheila F. Murphy, Birgit Peterson, Geoffrey S. Plumlee, Douglas J. Shinneman, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Alison York
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Natural Hazards Mission Area, Science Synthesis, Analysis and Research Program, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Program, Alaska Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Geology, Geophysics, and Geochemistry Science Center, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Wildland Fire Science
Forecasting the frequency and magnitude of postfire debris flows across southern California
Southern California has a long history of damaging debris flows after wildfire. Despite recurrent loss, forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of postfire debris flows are not available for the region like they are for earthquakes. Instead, debris flow hazards are typically assessed in a reactive manner after wildfires. Such assessments are crucial for evaluating debris flow risk by postfire eme
Authors
Jason W. Kean, Dennis M. Staley
Time since burning and rainfall characteristics impact post-fire debris flow initiation and magnitude
The extreme heat from wildfire alters soil properties and incinerates vegetation, leading to changes in infiltration capacity, ground cover, soil erodibility, and rainfall interception. These changes promote elevated rates of runoff and sediment transport that increase the likelihood of runoff-generated debris flows. Debris flows are most common in the year immediately following wildfire, but temp
Authors
Luke A. McGuire, Francis K. Rengers, Nina S. Oakley, Jason W. Kean, Dennis M. Staley, Hui Tang, Marian de Orla-Barile, Ann M. Youberg
Progress and lessons learned from responses to landslide disasters
Landslides have the incredible power to transform landscapes and also, tragically, to cause disastrous societal impacts. Whereas the mechanics and effects of many landslide disasters have been analyzed in detail, the means by which landslide experts respond to these events has garnered much less attention. Herein, we evaluate nine landslide response case histories conducted by the U.S. Geological
Authors
Brian D. Collins, Mark E. Reid, Jeffrey A. Coe, Jason W. Kean, Rex L. Baum, Randall W. Jibson, Jonathan W. Godt, Stephen Slaughter, Greg M. Stock
Measuring basal force fluctuations of debris flows using seismic recordings and empirical green's functions
We present a novel method for measuring the fluctuating basal normal and shear stresses of debris flows by using along‐channel seismic recordings. Our method couples a simple parameterization of a debris flow as a seismic source with direct measurements of seismic path effects using empirical Green's functions generated with a force hammer. We test this method using two large‐scale (8 and 10 m3) e
Authors
Kate E. Allstadt, Maxime Farin, Richard M. Iverson, Maciej Obryk, Jason W. Kean, Victor C. Tsai, Thomas D Rapstine, Matthew Logan
The recurrence interval of post-fire debris-flow generating rainfall in the southwestern United States
In the southwestern United States, post-fire debris flows commonly initiate during short bursts of intense rainfall. To date, the frequency of the rainfall rates has not been quantified. Here, we combine an existing database of debris-flow occurrences and corresponding peak storm intensities with a geospatial library of rainfall recurrence interval (RI) information and climate type to determine th
Authors
Dennis M. Staley, Jason W. Kean, Francis K. Rengers
Landslides after wildfire: Initiation, magnitude, and mobility
In the semiarid Southwestern USA, wildfires are commonly followed by runoff-generated debris flows because wildfires remove vegetation and ground cover, which reduces soil infiltration capacity and increases soil erodibility. At a study site in Southern California, we initially observed runoff-generated debris flows in the first year following fire. However, at the same site three years after the
Authors
Francis K. Rengers, Luke McGuire, Nina S. Oakley, Jason W. Kean, Dennis M. Staley, Hui Tang
The impact of sediment supply on the initiation and magnitude of runoff-generated debris flows
Rainfall intensity‐duration (ID) thresholds are commonly used to assess the potential for runoff‐generated debris flows, but the sensitivity of these thresholds to sediment supply, which can change rapidly with time, is relatively unexplored. Furthermore, debris flows often self‐organize into distinct surges, but the factors controlling the magnitude and frequency of these surges, including sedime
Authors
Hui Tang, Luke A. McGuire, Jason W. Kean, Joel B. Smith