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Kevin Buffington

Kevin Buffington is an ecologist at the Western Ecological Research Center.

EDUCATION

B.S. Biology, 2007, University of Wisconsin- Eau Claire,, Eau Claire, WI.
M.S. Biology, 2010, Idaho State University, Pocatello, ID.
Ph.D. Fisheries and Wildlife, anticipated Mar 2017, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

RESEARCH INTERESTS

  • Climate change ecology
  • Remote Sensing
  • Sea-level rise and salt marsh habitats
  • Spatial modeling
  • Species Distribution Modeling
  • Physiological tolerances
  • Wildlife biology

Science and Products

Mangroves on the outside of a playa within Florida Bay

Coastal Wetland Vulnerability to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise: Understanding Ecological Thresholds and Ecosystem Transformations

Eighteen USGS coastal scientists from all four coasts of the conterminous United States are working together to advance the understanding of climate change and sea-level rise impacts to coastal wetlands.
By
California Water Science Center, Chesapeake Bay Activities, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, Great Lakes Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Western Geographic Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center
Coastal Wetland Vulnerability to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise: Understanding Ecological Thresholds and Ecosystem Transformations

Coastal Wetland Vulnerability to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise: Understanding Ecological Thresholds and Ecosystem Transformations

Eighteen USGS coastal scientists from all four coasts of the conterminous United States are working together to advance the understanding of climate change and sea-level rise impacts to coastal wetlands.
Learn More
Image Collage of Landsat, pollinator, and volcanologist

Enhancing Community and Wildlife Resilience to Sea‐Level Rise and Infrastructure Development in the San Pablo Baylands

Project Overview: The San Pablo Baylands support critical wildlife habitat and major transportation infrastructure, but the combined effects of sea-level rise and planned highway redesigns on habitat and public access remain uncertain. Scientists supported by this Southwest CASC project will work with federal, state, and regional managers to fill key data gaps and model how sea-level...
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
Enhancing Community and Wildlife Resilience to Sea‐Level Rise and Infrastructure Development in the San Pablo Baylands

Enhancing Community and Wildlife Resilience to Sea‐Level Rise and Infrastructure Development in the San Pablo Baylands

Project Overview: The San Pablo Baylands support critical wildlife habitat and major transportation infrastructure, but the combined effects of sea-level rise and planned highway redesigns on habitat and public access remain uncertain. Scientists supported by this Southwest CASC project will work with federal, state, and regional managers to fill key data gaps and model how sea-level rise
Learn More
View of mangroves along the coast in La Parguera, Lajas, Puerto Rico.

Developing a Pacific Mangrove Monitoring Network (PACMAN) in Response to Sea Level Rise

Continued sea-level rise from a changing climate is expected to result in the loss of many coastal mangrove trees, which, will strongly affect human populations on isolated Western Pacific islands as they rely heavily on mangrove forests for food (fish, shrimp, and crabs), building materials, and firewood. Mangroves also protect local communities from tsunamis and cyclones and are...
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
Developing a Pacific Mangrove Monitoring Network (PACMAN) in Response to Sea Level Rise

Developing a Pacific Mangrove Monitoring Network (PACMAN) in Response to Sea Level Rise

Continued sea-level rise from a changing climate is expected to result in the loss of many coastal mangrove trees, which, will strongly affect human populations on isolated Western Pacific islands as they rely heavily on mangrove forests for food (fish, shrimp, and crabs), building materials, and firewood. Mangroves also protect local communities from tsunamis and cyclones and are important for
Learn More
LUCAS model

Wetland Carbon Working Group: Improving Methodologies and Estimates of Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Flux in Wetlands

WARC researchers are working to quantify the impacts of future climate and land use/land cover change on greenhouse gas emissions and reductions.
By
Land Management Research Program, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Gulf of America
Wetland Carbon Working Group: Improving Methodologies and Estimates of Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Flux in Wetlands

Wetland Carbon Working Group: Improving Methodologies and Estimates of Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Flux in Wetlands

WARC researchers are working to quantify the impacts of future climate and land use/land cover change on greenhouse gas emissions and reductions.
Learn More
Tropical mangrove forest with dense aboveground roots, with a channel of water in the middle

Sea-level Rise Vulnerability of Mangrove Forests in Micronesia and the Pacific

The USGS and partners are studying how mangrove forests in the Federated States of Micronesia may respond to sea-level rise over the coming century. Their projections will help Micronesian communities plan for the future.
By
Land Management Research Program, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)
Sea-level Rise Vulnerability of Mangrove Forests in Micronesia and the Pacific

Sea-level Rise Vulnerability of Mangrove Forests in Micronesia and the Pacific

The USGS and partners are studying how mangrove forests in the Federated States of Micronesia may respond to sea-level rise over the coming century. Their projections will help Micronesian communities plan for the future.
Learn More
Image: Bird Island

The Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Coral Reef and Mangrove Interactions and the Resulting Coastal Flooding Hazards

Ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves provide an effective first line of defense against coastal hazards and represent a promising nature-based solution to adapt to sea-level rise. In many areas, coral reefs cause waves to break and lose energy, allowing for sediment to accumulate on the inshore portion of reef flats (i.e. the shallowest, flattest part of a reef) and mangroves to...
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
The Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Coral Reef and Mangrove Interactions and the Resulting Coastal Flooding Hazards

The Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Coral Reef and Mangrove Interactions and the Resulting Coastal Flooding Hazards

Ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves provide an effective first line of defense against coastal hazards and represent a promising nature-based solution to adapt to sea-level rise. In many areas, coral reefs cause waves to break and lose energy, allowing for sediment to accumulate on the inshore portion of reef flats (i.e. the shallowest, flattest part of a reef) and mangroves to establish
Learn More
Filter Total Items: 27

Elevation Data Across San Francisco Bay-Delta Wetlands Elevation Data Across San Francisco Bay-Delta Wetlands

This data release includes high resolution in-situ elevation data collected in wetlands and adjacent ecosystems throughout the San Francisco Bay from 2015 to 2024. Elevation data were collected using real-time kinematic global positioning system receivers.
By
Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)

Projections of Elevation and Mangrove Species Cover under Sea-Level Rise across Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia Projections of Elevation and Mangrove Species Cover under Sea-Level Rise across Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia

Future sea-level rise poses a risk to mangrove forests. To better understand potential vulnerability, we developed a numerical model of soil elevation for mangrove forests. We used the model to generate projections of elevation and mangrove forest composition change under six sea-level rise scenarios from 2020 through 2150. We employed a data-driven modeling approach, utilizing new and...
By
Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)

A Compilation of Soil, Vegetation, Elevation and Bathymetry Attributes in San Pablo Bay Comparing Marsh Restorations using Beneficial Reuse of Dredged Material to Naturally Accreting Restorations, 2023-2025 A Compilation of Soil, Vegetation, Elevation and Bathymetry Attributes in San Pablo Bay Comparing Marsh Restorations using Beneficial Reuse of Dredged Material to Naturally Accreting Restorations, 2023-2025

This dataset includes measurements of physical and biological parameters of two restored tidal wetlands that utilized beneficial reuse material (Hamilton Restoration, Sonoma Baylands), and compares their attributes to two wetlands that have been restored through natural tidal sediment accretion (Tolay, Carl’s Marsh) and one wetland that had never been diked (Pinkston Slough). Throughout...
By
Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)

Soil Properties of Tidal Marshes Across Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge, California Soil Properties of Tidal Marshes Across Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge, California

Soil cores were collected across the marshes of Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge in California to assess belowground properties and for radioisotope dating. Data from the soil cores include dry bulk density, organic matter proportion, carbon, and accretion rates. These data were then used to calibrate a wetland model (WARMER3) to assess future elevation and...
By
Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)

North American dataset of ecosystem properties in tidal saline wetlands—Canopy height, aboveground biomass, productivity, soil carbon density, and soil carbon accumulation North American dataset of ecosystem properties in tidal saline wetlands—Canopy height, aboveground biomass, productivity, soil carbon density, and soil carbon accumulation

This dataset includes literature-derived ecological data from tidal saline wetlands across the United States, Canada, and Mexico for the following ecosystem properties: canopy height, aboveground biomass, productivity, soil carbon density, and soil carbon accumulation rates.
By
Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Sediment core radioisotope measurements in coastal wetlands along the Chesapeake Bay Sediment core radioisotope measurements in coastal wetlands along the Chesapeake Bay

Data shows radioisotope measurements (Pb-210 and Cs-137) of sediment cores from four coastal wetlands along the Chesapeake Bay (one core from each site). Cores were sectioned every 1-2 cm depth.
By
Chesapeake Bay Activities, Eastern Ecological Science Center
No results found.
Filter Total Items: 43

Causal interpretations can be based on mechanistic knowledge Causal interpretations can be based on mechanistic knowledge

There exists a long-standing disconnect between statistical and mechanistic approaches to the development of causal understanding. Statistical approaches, which have dominated the literature, have focused on the need to obtain perfectly unbiased estimates of causal effects often using either experimental, quasi-experimental or other methods. Mechanistic approaches have instead focused on
Authors
James Grace, Glenn Guntenspergen, Kevin Buffington, Justine Annaliese Neville, Karen M. Thorne, Michael J. Osland, Melinda Martinez, Joel Carr, Debra A. Willard
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Eastern Ecological Science Center

Multi-model comparison of salt marsh longevity under relative sea-level rise Multi-model comparison of salt marsh longevity under relative sea-level rise

Understanding salt marsh resilience under increasing sea levels can inform for management decisions. We compared temporal projections from various wetland process-based models and a geospatially derived metric (i.e., marsh lifespan) to understand key considerations and uncertainties about salt marsh resilience when using these products for decision-making. The influences of lidar...
Authors
Melinda Martinez, Kevin Buffington, Neil K. Ganju, Zafer Defne, Kate Ackerman, Karen M. Thorne, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Joel A. Carr
By
Chesapeake Bay Activities, Eastern Ecological Science Center

Ecological thresholds and transformations due to climate change: The role of abiotic stress Ecological thresholds and transformations due to climate change: The role of abiotic stress

An ecological threshold is the point at which a comparatively small environmental change triggers an abrupt and disproportionately large ecological response. In the face of accelerating climate change, there is concern that abrupt ecosystem transformations will become more widespread as critical ecological thresholds are crossed. There has been ongoing debate, however, regarding the...
Authors
Michael Osland, John B. Bradford, Lauren Toth, Matthew J. Germino, James Grace, Judith Z. Drexler, Camille L. Stagg, Eric E. Grossman, Karen M. Thorne, Stephanie Romanach, Davina Passeri, Gregory E. Noe, Jessica R. Lacy, Ken Krauss, Kurt P. Kowalski, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Neil K. Ganju, Nicholas Enwright, Joel A. Carr, Kristin B. Byrd, Kevin Buffington
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, California Water Science Center, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Western Geographic Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

Nature-based solutions could offset coastal squeeze of tidal wetlands from sea-level rise on the U.S. Pacific coast Nature-based solutions could offset coastal squeeze of tidal wetlands from sea-level rise on the U.S. Pacific coast

In this study, we explored the opportunities for tidal wetland landward migration in response to sea-level rise on the Pacific Coast of the United States. By employing a systematic spatial approach, we quantified the available space for wetland migration with sea-level rise across 61 estuarine drainage areas. Although many of the existing tidal wetlands are small patches, our analyses...
Authors
Karen M. Thorne, Kevin Buffington, Michael Osland, Bogdan Chivoiu, James Grace, Nicholas Enwright, Glenn R. Guntenspergen
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)

Surveying waterfowl broods in wetlands using aerial drones Surveying waterfowl broods in wetlands using aerial drones

Effective waterfowl management relies on the collection of relevant demographic data to inform land management decisions; however, some types of data are difficult to obtain. For waterfowl, brood surveys are difficult to conduct because wetland habitats often obscure ducklings from being visually assessed. Here, we used Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UAS) to assess what wetland habitat...
Authors
Desmond Alexander Mackell, Michael L. Casazza, Cory T. Overton, Kevin Buffington, Chase M. Freeman, Joshua T. Ackerman, Karen M. Thorne
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)

Projecting mangrove forest resilience to sea-level rise on a Pacific Island: Species dynamics and ecological thresholds Projecting mangrove forest resilience to sea-level rise on a Pacific Island: Species dynamics and ecological thresholds

Mangroves can increase their elevation relative to tidal flooding through biogeomorphic feedbacks but can submerge if rates of sea-level rise are too great. There is an urgent need to understand the vulnerability of mangroves to sea-level rise so local communities and resource managers can implement and prioritize actions. The need is especially pressing for small islands, which have...
Authors
Kevin Buffington, Joel A. Carr, Richard Mackenzie, Maybeleen Apwong, Ken Krauss, Karen M. Thorne
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Eastern Ecological Science Center
Ecological Thresholds, Abiotic Stress, and Climate Change: A Conceptual Framework

Ecological Thresholds, Abiotic Stress, and Climate Change: A Conceptual Framework

As climate change accelerates, the risk of sudden, large-scale shifts in ecosystems is growing. A new USGS study examines the mechanisms behind these...

Read Article

Science and Products

Mangroves on the outside of a playa within Florida Bay

Coastal Wetland Vulnerability to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise: Understanding Ecological Thresholds and Ecosystem Transformations

Eighteen USGS coastal scientists from all four coasts of the conterminous United States are working together to advance the understanding of climate change and sea-level rise impacts to coastal wetlands.
By
California Water Science Center, Chesapeake Bay Activities, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, Great Lakes Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Western Geographic Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center
Coastal Wetland Vulnerability to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise: Understanding Ecological Thresholds and Ecosystem Transformations

Coastal Wetland Vulnerability to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise: Understanding Ecological Thresholds and Ecosystem Transformations

Eighteen USGS coastal scientists from all four coasts of the conterminous United States are working together to advance the understanding of climate change and sea-level rise impacts to coastal wetlands.
Learn More
Image Collage of Landsat, pollinator, and volcanologist

Enhancing Community and Wildlife Resilience to Sea‐Level Rise and Infrastructure Development in the San Pablo Baylands

Project Overview: The San Pablo Baylands support critical wildlife habitat and major transportation infrastructure, but the combined effects of sea-level rise and planned highway redesigns on habitat and public access remain uncertain. Scientists supported by this Southwest CASC project will work with federal, state, and regional managers to fill key data gaps and model how sea-level...
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
Enhancing Community and Wildlife Resilience to Sea‐Level Rise and Infrastructure Development in the San Pablo Baylands

Enhancing Community and Wildlife Resilience to Sea‐Level Rise and Infrastructure Development in the San Pablo Baylands

Project Overview: The San Pablo Baylands support critical wildlife habitat and major transportation infrastructure, but the combined effects of sea-level rise and planned highway redesigns on habitat and public access remain uncertain. Scientists supported by this Southwest CASC project will work with federal, state, and regional managers to fill key data gaps and model how sea-level rise
Learn More
View of mangroves along the coast in La Parguera, Lajas, Puerto Rico.

Developing a Pacific Mangrove Monitoring Network (PACMAN) in Response to Sea Level Rise

Continued sea-level rise from a changing climate is expected to result in the loss of many coastal mangrove trees, which, will strongly affect human populations on isolated Western Pacific islands as they rely heavily on mangrove forests for food (fish, shrimp, and crabs), building materials, and firewood. Mangroves also protect local communities from tsunamis and cyclones and are...
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
Developing a Pacific Mangrove Monitoring Network (PACMAN) in Response to Sea Level Rise

Developing a Pacific Mangrove Monitoring Network (PACMAN) in Response to Sea Level Rise

Continued sea-level rise from a changing climate is expected to result in the loss of many coastal mangrove trees, which, will strongly affect human populations on isolated Western Pacific islands as they rely heavily on mangrove forests for food (fish, shrimp, and crabs), building materials, and firewood. Mangroves also protect local communities from tsunamis and cyclones and are important for
Learn More
LUCAS model

Wetland Carbon Working Group: Improving Methodologies and Estimates of Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Flux in Wetlands

WARC researchers are working to quantify the impacts of future climate and land use/land cover change on greenhouse gas emissions and reductions.
By
Land Management Research Program, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Gulf of America
Wetland Carbon Working Group: Improving Methodologies and Estimates of Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Flux in Wetlands

Wetland Carbon Working Group: Improving Methodologies and Estimates of Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Flux in Wetlands

WARC researchers are working to quantify the impacts of future climate and land use/land cover change on greenhouse gas emissions and reductions.
Learn More
Tropical mangrove forest with dense aboveground roots, with a channel of water in the middle

Sea-level Rise Vulnerability of Mangrove Forests in Micronesia and the Pacific

The USGS and partners are studying how mangrove forests in the Federated States of Micronesia may respond to sea-level rise over the coming century. Their projections will help Micronesian communities plan for the future.
By
Land Management Research Program, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)
Sea-level Rise Vulnerability of Mangrove Forests in Micronesia and the Pacific

Sea-level Rise Vulnerability of Mangrove Forests in Micronesia and the Pacific

The USGS and partners are studying how mangrove forests in the Federated States of Micronesia may respond to sea-level rise over the coming century. Their projections will help Micronesian communities plan for the future.
Learn More
Image: Bird Island

The Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Coral Reef and Mangrove Interactions and the Resulting Coastal Flooding Hazards

Ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves provide an effective first line of defense against coastal hazards and represent a promising nature-based solution to adapt to sea-level rise. In many areas, coral reefs cause waves to break and lose energy, allowing for sediment to accumulate on the inshore portion of reef flats (i.e. the shallowest, flattest part of a reef) and mangroves to...
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
The Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Coral Reef and Mangrove Interactions and the Resulting Coastal Flooding Hazards

The Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Coral Reef and Mangrove Interactions and the Resulting Coastal Flooding Hazards

Ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves provide an effective first line of defense against coastal hazards and represent a promising nature-based solution to adapt to sea-level rise. In many areas, coral reefs cause waves to break and lose energy, allowing for sediment to accumulate on the inshore portion of reef flats (i.e. the shallowest, flattest part of a reef) and mangroves to establish
Learn More
Filter Total Items: 27

Elevation Data Across San Francisco Bay-Delta Wetlands Elevation Data Across San Francisco Bay-Delta Wetlands

This data release includes high resolution in-situ elevation data collected in wetlands and adjacent ecosystems throughout the San Francisco Bay from 2015 to 2024. Elevation data were collected using real-time kinematic global positioning system receivers.
By
Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)

Projections of Elevation and Mangrove Species Cover under Sea-Level Rise across Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia Projections of Elevation and Mangrove Species Cover under Sea-Level Rise across Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia

Future sea-level rise poses a risk to mangrove forests. To better understand potential vulnerability, we developed a numerical model of soil elevation for mangrove forests. We used the model to generate projections of elevation and mangrove forest composition change under six sea-level rise scenarios from 2020 through 2150. We employed a data-driven modeling approach, utilizing new and...
By
Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)

A Compilation of Soil, Vegetation, Elevation and Bathymetry Attributes in San Pablo Bay Comparing Marsh Restorations using Beneficial Reuse of Dredged Material to Naturally Accreting Restorations, 2023-2025 A Compilation of Soil, Vegetation, Elevation and Bathymetry Attributes in San Pablo Bay Comparing Marsh Restorations using Beneficial Reuse of Dredged Material to Naturally Accreting Restorations, 2023-2025

This dataset includes measurements of physical and biological parameters of two restored tidal wetlands that utilized beneficial reuse material (Hamilton Restoration, Sonoma Baylands), and compares their attributes to two wetlands that have been restored through natural tidal sediment accretion (Tolay, Carl’s Marsh) and one wetland that had never been diked (Pinkston Slough). Throughout...
By
Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)

Soil Properties of Tidal Marshes Across Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge, California Soil Properties of Tidal Marshes Across Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge, California

Soil cores were collected across the marshes of Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge in California to assess belowground properties and for radioisotope dating. Data from the soil cores include dry bulk density, organic matter proportion, carbon, and accretion rates. These data were then used to calibrate a wetland model (WARMER3) to assess future elevation and...
By
Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)

North American dataset of ecosystem properties in tidal saline wetlands—Canopy height, aboveground biomass, productivity, soil carbon density, and soil carbon accumulation North American dataset of ecosystem properties in tidal saline wetlands—Canopy height, aboveground biomass, productivity, soil carbon density, and soil carbon accumulation

This dataset includes literature-derived ecological data from tidal saline wetlands across the United States, Canada, and Mexico for the following ecosystem properties: canopy height, aboveground biomass, productivity, soil carbon density, and soil carbon accumulation rates.
By
Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Sediment core radioisotope measurements in coastal wetlands along the Chesapeake Bay Sediment core radioisotope measurements in coastal wetlands along the Chesapeake Bay

Data shows radioisotope measurements (Pb-210 and Cs-137) of sediment cores from four coastal wetlands along the Chesapeake Bay (one core from each site). Cores were sectioned every 1-2 cm depth.
By
Chesapeake Bay Activities, Eastern Ecological Science Center
No results found.
Filter Total Items: 43

Causal interpretations can be based on mechanistic knowledge Causal interpretations can be based on mechanistic knowledge

There exists a long-standing disconnect between statistical and mechanistic approaches to the development of causal understanding. Statistical approaches, which have dominated the literature, have focused on the need to obtain perfectly unbiased estimates of causal effects often using either experimental, quasi-experimental or other methods. Mechanistic approaches have instead focused on
Authors
James Grace, Glenn Guntenspergen, Kevin Buffington, Justine Annaliese Neville, Karen M. Thorne, Michael J. Osland, Melinda Martinez, Joel Carr, Debra A. Willard
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Eastern Ecological Science Center

Multi-model comparison of salt marsh longevity under relative sea-level rise Multi-model comparison of salt marsh longevity under relative sea-level rise

Understanding salt marsh resilience under increasing sea levels can inform for management decisions. We compared temporal projections from various wetland process-based models and a geospatially derived metric (i.e., marsh lifespan) to understand key considerations and uncertainties about salt marsh resilience when using these products for decision-making. The influences of lidar...
Authors
Melinda Martinez, Kevin Buffington, Neil K. Ganju, Zafer Defne, Kate Ackerman, Karen M. Thorne, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Joel A. Carr
By
Chesapeake Bay Activities, Eastern Ecological Science Center

Ecological thresholds and transformations due to climate change: The role of abiotic stress Ecological thresholds and transformations due to climate change: The role of abiotic stress

An ecological threshold is the point at which a comparatively small environmental change triggers an abrupt and disproportionately large ecological response. In the face of accelerating climate change, there is concern that abrupt ecosystem transformations will become more widespread as critical ecological thresholds are crossed. There has been ongoing debate, however, regarding the...
Authors
Michael Osland, John B. Bradford, Lauren Toth, Matthew J. Germino, James Grace, Judith Z. Drexler, Camille L. Stagg, Eric E. Grossman, Karen M. Thorne, Stephanie Romanach, Davina Passeri, Gregory E. Noe, Jessica R. Lacy, Ken Krauss, Kurt P. Kowalski, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Neil K. Ganju, Nicholas Enwright, Joel A. Carr, Kristin B. Byrd, Kevin Buffington
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, California Water Science Center, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Western Geographic Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

Nature-based solutions could offset coastal squeeze of tidal wetlands from sea-level rise on the U.S. Pacific coast Nature-based solutions could offset coastal squeeze of tidal wetlands from sea-level rise on the U.S. Pacific coast

In this study, we explored the opportunities for tidal wetland landward migration in response to sea-level rise on the Pacific Coast of the United States. By employing a systematic spatial approach, we quantified the available space for wetland migration with sea-level rise across 61 estuarine drainage areas. Although many of the existing tidal wetlands are small patches, our analyses...
Authors
Karen M. Thorne, Kevin Buffington, Michael Osland, Bogdan Chivoiu, James Grace, Nicholas Enwright, Glenn R. Guntenspergen
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)

Surveying waterfowl broods in wetlands using aerial drones Surveying waterfowl broods in wetlands using aerial drones

Effective waterfowl management relies on the collection of relevant demographic data to inform land management decisions; however, some types of data are difficult to obtain. For waterfowl, brood surveys are difficult to conduct because wetland habitats often obscure ducklings from being visually assessed. Here, we used Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UAS) to assess what wetland habitat...
Authors
Desmond Alexander Mackell, Michael L. Casazza, Cory T. Overton, Kevin Buffington, Chase M. Freeman, Joshua T. Ackerman, Karen M. Thorne
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)

Projecting mangrove forest resilience to sea-level rise on a Pacific Island: Species dynamics and ecological thresholds Projecting mangrove forest resilience to sea-level rise on a Pacific Island: Species dynamics and ecological thresholds

Mangroves can increase their elevation relative to tidal flooding through biogeomorphic feedbacks but can submerge if rates of sea-level rise are too great. There is an urgent need to understand the vulnerability of mangroves to sea-level rise so local communities and resource managers can implement and prioritize actions. The need is especially pressing for small islands, which have...
Authors
Kevin Buffington, Joel A. Carr, Richard Mackenzie, Maybeleen Apwong, Ken Krauss, Karen M. Thorne
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Eastern Ecological Science Center
Ecological Thresholds, Abiotic Stress, and Climate Change: A Conceptual Framework

Ecological Thresholds, Abiotic Stress, and Climate Change: A Conceptual Framework

As climate change accelerates, the risk of sudden, large-scale shifts in ecosystems is growing. A new USGS study examines the mechanisms behind these...

Read Article
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