Lauren Toth, Ph.D.
Lauren Toth is a Research Physical Scientist at the St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center in St. Petersburg, Florida.
I study the impacts of natural and anthropogenic environmental change on coral-reef ecosystems. My research combines geological and modern records to quantify the complex processes and environmental controls that determine the state and function of reefs over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. I approach each problem from an interdisciplinary perspective, bringing together knowledge and techniques from a variety of fields to develop a holistic understanding of reefs’ environmental setting and ecology. A central focus of my research is to provide new knowledge that is directly applicable to coral-reef management and restoration.
Professional Experience
Geology Topic Editor for Coral Reefs, the flagship journal of the International Society for Reef Studies: 2021‒present.
Elected Chair of the Geological Society of America Marine and Coastal Geoscience Division: 2021‒2025.
Invited Visiting Faculty and Lead Instructor for the Northeastern University Three Seas Program’s Graduate Coral Reef Ecology Field Course in Panama: 2016–2020.
Mendenhall Postdoctoral Researcher, U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg, FL: 2014‒2016.
Research Scientist, Florida Institute of Technology, Department of Biology, Melbourne, FL: 2013‒2014.
Education and Certifications
Ph.D., Florida Institute of Technology, Biological Sciences (2009–2013), Dissertation: Holocene coral-reef development in the tropical eastern Pacific
University of South Alabama Dauphin Island Sea Lab, Marine Science Graduate Program (2007–2008, transferred to Florida Institute of Technology)
B.S., University of Miami, Majors in Marine Science, Biology, and Motion Pictures, Minor in Chemistry (2002–2006)
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 23
U-series Ages and Elevation Data of Late Pleistocene Corals From the Florida Keys U-series Ages and Elevation Data of Late Pleistocene Corals From the Florida Keys
This data release compiles Uranium-series (U-series) data and descriptive collection information (such as sample/core identifier, location, elevation, etc.) for late Pleistocene coral subsamples from coral-reef cores previously collected throughout the Florida Keys by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) researchers. The samples were collected under scientific research permits from the Florida...
Late Holocene and Living Coral Composition of Pompano Ridge, FL Late Holocene and Living Coral Composition of Pompano Ridge, FL
Pompano Ridge is a coral reef located on the southeast Florida nearshore ridge complex, ~500 meters off the coast of northern Broward County in southeast Florida. This data release compiles data collected on the late Holocene and living coral composition of Pompano Ridge. The data are described in detail in Modys and others (in prep). The samples were collected under Scientific Activity...
Sr/Ca and Linear Extension Data for a Modern Orbicella faveolata Colony From Marquesas Keys, Florida, USA Sr/Ca and Linear Extension Data for a Modern Orbicella faveolata Colony From Marquesas Keys, Florida, USA
The coral Strontium/Calcium (Sr/Ca) paleothermometer can provide a powerful proxy for centennial-scale sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the Caribbean/Atlantic Ocean region. This data release presents a new, 150-year proxy reconstruction (1830-1980 C.E.) of monthly-resolved Sr/Ca-based SST estimates from the coral species Orbicella faveolata collected from the Marquesas Keys...
Uranium-Thorium Ages for Late Holocene Corals from the Southeast Florida Nearshore Ridge Complex Uranium-Thorium Ages for Late Holocene Corals from the Southeast Florida Nearshore Ridge Complex
This data release compiles Uranium-Thorium (U-Th) dating data for late Holocene coral samples collected from the Nearshore Ridge Complex (NRC) off Pompano Beach, Southeast Florida (SEFL; Figure 1). The samples were collected under Scientific Activity Licenses (SAL) from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (SAL-18-1659A-SRP) and with permission from Broward County...
Reef-census Data from Buck Island Reef National Monument Reef-census Data from Buck Island Reef National Monument
In July of 2016, Florida Institute of Technology researchers, in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), conducted reef-census surveys at 54 sites around Buck Island Reef National Monument, St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands. The sites are divided across two reef sectors (North and South) and three reef habitats (fore reef, reef crest, and back reef) (Figure 1). These data were...
Keys Carbonate Budget Calculations and Analysis Keys Carbonate Budget Calculations and Analysis
The code 'Keys Carbonate Budget Calculations', written in R (v.4.0.4; https://www.R-project.org/), uses benthic coral-reef survey data and fish survey data to calculate coral-reef carbonate budgets following the ReefBudget v2 methodology (http://geography.exeter.ac.uk/reefbudget/; Perry and Lange, 2019). The carbonate budgets include estimates (means +/- standard errors) of gross...
Filter Total Items: 54
Ecological thresholds and transformations due to climate change: The role of abiotic stress Ecological thresholds and transformations due to climate change: The role of abiotic stress
An ecological threshold is the point at which a comparatively small environmental change triggers an abrupt and disproportionately large ecological response. In the face of accelerating climate change, there is concern that abrupt ecosystem transformations will become more widespread as critical ecological thresholds are crossed. There has been ongoing debate, however, regarding the...
Authors
Michael Osland, John B. Bradford, Lauren Toth, Matthew J. Germino, James Grace, Judith Z. Drexler, Camille L. Stagg, Eric E. Grossman, Karen M. Thorne, Stephanie Romanach, Davina Passeri, Gregory E. Noe, Jessica R. Lacy, Ken Krauss, Kurt P. Kowalski, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Neil K. Ganju, Nicholas Enwright, Joel A. Carr, Kristin B. Byrd, Kevin Buffington
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, California Water Science Center, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Western Geographic Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center
Snapshots of mid-to-late Holocene sea-surface temperature variability from a subtropical western Atlantic coral reef Snapshots of mid-to-late Holocene sea-surface temperature variability from a subtropical western Atlantic coral reef
Large-scale Holocene climate reconstructions rely heavily on extratropical proxy records. Coral-based temperature reconstructions from the tropical and subtropical oceans therefore fill a critical spatial and temporal data gap, allowing for reconstruction of seasonally resolved temperature variability. We present five new, monthly-resolved sea-surface temperature (SST) reconstructions...
Authors
Jessica A. Jacobs, Julie N. Richey, Jennifer A. Flannery, Kaustubh Thiumalai, Lauren Toth
Re-evaluating Marine Isotope Stage 5a paleo-sea-level trends from across the Florida Keys reef tract Re-evaluating Marine Isotope Stage 5a paleo-sea-level trends from across the Florida Keys reef tract
Unraveling how Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) fluctuated during past warm periods can improve our understanding of linkages between sea-level fluctuations, orbital forcing, and ice-sheet dynamics. Current estimates of GMSL for Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5a and 5c — two warm intervals following the relatively well-documented MIS 5e — contain meters of uncertainty and fewer data due to...
Authors
Scarlette Hsia, Lauren Toth, Richard A. Mortlock, Charles Kerans
Modern coral range expansion off southeast Florida falls short of Late Holocene baseline Modern coral range expansion off southeast Florida falls short of Late Holocene baseline
As thermal stress and disease outbreaks decimate coral reefs throughout the tropics, there is growing evidence that higher latitude marine environments may provide crucial refuges for many at-risk, temperature-sensitive coral species. However, our understanding of how coral populations expand into new areas and sustain themselves over time is constrained by the limited scope of modern...
Authors
Peter Alexander Bacon Modys, Lauren Toth, William F. Precht, Anton E. Oleinik, Richard A. Mortlock
20th century warming in the lower Florida Keys was dominated by increasing winter temperatures 20th century warming in the lower Florida Keys was dominated by increasing winter temperatures
Long-lived Atlantic coral species like Orbicella faveolata are important archives of oceanographic change in shallow, marine environments like the Florida Keys. Not only can coral-based records extend for multiple centuries beyond the limits of the instrumental record, but they can also provide a more accurate representation of in situ conditions than gridded interpolated sea-surface...
Authors
Jennifer A. Flannery, Julie N. Richey, Lauren Toth, Madelyn Jean Mette
Stony coral tissue loss disease accelerated shifts in coral composition and declines in reef accretion potential in the Florida Keys Stony coral tissue loss disease accelerated shifts in coral composition and declines in reef accretion potential in the Florida Keys
Outbreaks of coral disease have been a dominant force shaping western Atlantic coral-reef assemblages since the late 1970s. Stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) is nonetheless having an unprecedented impact in the region. Whereas numerous studies over the last decade have worked to characterize this novel pathogen and its impacts on coral populations, few have quantified its...
Authors
Lauren Toth, Travis A. Courtney, Michael A. Colella, Robert R. Ruzicka
Non-USGS Publications**
Toth, L.T., I.G. Macintyre, and R.B. Aronson, 2017, Holocene reef development in the Tropical Eastern Pacific. In Glynn, P.W., D.P. Manzello, and I.C. Enochs (eds). Coral Reefs of the Eastern Pacific: Persistence and Loss in a Dynamic Environment. Springer-Verlag, New York. doi: 10.1007/978-94-017-7499-4_6.
Toth, L.T., R.B. Aronson, S.R. Smith, T.J.T. Murdoch, J.C. Ogden, W.F. Precht, and R. van Woesik, 2014, Do no-take reserves benefit corals? 14 years of stasis and change on Florida’s reefs. Coral Reefs 33:565–577, doi: 10.1007/s00338-014-1158-x.
Smith, T. B., Glynn, P. W., Maté, J. L., Toth, L. T. and Gyory, J., 2014, A depth refugium from catastrophic coral bleaching prevents regional extinction. Ecology, 95: 1663-1673. doi:10.1890/13-0468.1.
Staaterman, E.R., Z. Reichenbach, A. Bhandiwad, P. Gravinese, P. Moeller, A. Shantz, D.S. Shiffman, L.T. Toth, and A. Warneke, A.J. Gallagher, 2014, Lights, camera, science: The growing popularity of film festivals at scientific meetings. Ideas in Ecology and Evolution 7:11–16.
Aronson, R. B., Precht, W. F., Macintyre, I. G. and Toth, L. T., 2012, Catastrophe and the life span of coral reefs. Ecology, 93: 303-313, doi:10.1890/11-1037.1. doi:10.1126/science.1221168.
Toth, L.T., R.B. Aronson, S.V. Vollmer, J.W. Hobbs, D. Urrego, H. Cheng, I.C. Enochs, D.J. Combosch, R. van Woesik, and I.G. Macintyre, 2012, ENSO drove 2500-year collapse of eastern Pacific coral reefs. Science 337:81–84.
Enochs IC, Toth LT, Brandtneris VW, Afflerbach JC, Manzello DP, 2011, Environmental determinants of motile cryptofauna on an eastern Pacific coral reef. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 438:105-118. doi:10.3354/meps09259.
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Filter Total Items: 27
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 23
U-series Ages and Elevation Data of Late Pleistocene Corals From the Florida Keys U-series Ages and Elevation Data of Late Pleistocene Corals From the Florida Keys
This data release compiles Uranium-series (U-series) data and descriptive collection information (such as sample/core identifier, location, elevation, etc.) for late Pleistocene coral subsamples from coral-reef cores previously collected throughout the Florida Keys by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) researchers. The samples were collected under scientific research permits from the Florida...
Late Holocene and Living Coral Composition of Pompano Ridge, FL Late Holocene and Living Coral Composition of Pompano Ridge, FL
Pompano Ridge is a coral reef located on the southeast Florida nearshore ridge complex, ~500 meters off the coast of northern Broward County in southeast Florida. This data release compiles data collected on the late Holocene and living coral composition of Pompano Ridge. The data are described in detail in Modys and others (in prep). The samples were collected under Scientific Activity...
Sr/Ca and Linear Extension Data for a Modern Orbicella faveolata Colony From Marquesas Keys, Florida, USA Sr/Ca and Linear Extension Data for a Modern Orbicella faveolata Colony From Marquesas Keys, Florida, USA
The coral Strontium/Calcium (Sr/Ca) paleothermometer can provide a powerful proxy for centennial-scale sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the Caribbean/Atlantic Ocean region. This data release presents a new, 150-year proxy reconstruction (1830-1980 C.E.) of monthly-resolved Sr/Ca-based SST estimates from the coral species Orbicella faveolata collected from the Marquesas Keys...
Uranium-Thorium Ages for Late Holocene Corals from the Southeast Florida Nearshore Ridge Complex Uranium-Thorium Ages for Late Holocene Corals from the Southeast Florida Nearshore Ridge Complex
This data release compiles Uranium-Thorium (U-Th) dating data for late Holocene coral samples collected from the Nearshore Ridge Complex (NRC) off Pompano Beach, Southeast Florida (SEFL; Figure 1). The samples were collected under Scientific Activity Licenses (SAL) from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (SAL-18-1659A-SRP) and with permission from Broward County...
Reef-census Data from Buck Island Reef National Monument Reef-census Data from Buck Island Reef National Monument
In July of 2016, Florida Institute of Technology researchers, in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), conducted reef-census surveys at 54 sites around Buck Island Reef National Monument, St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands. The sites are divided across two reef sectors (North and South) and three reef habitats (fore reef, reef crest, and back reef) (Figure 1). These data were...
Keys Carbonate Budget Calculations and Analysis Keys Carbonate Budget Calculations and Analysis
The code 'Keys Carbonate Budget Calculations', written in R (v.4.0.4; https://www.R-project.org/), uses benthic coral-reef survey data and fish survey data to calculate coral-reef carbonate budgets following the ReefBudget v2 methodology (http://geography.exeter.ac.uk/reefbudget/; Perry and Lange, 2019). The carbonate budgets include estimates (means +/- standard errors) of gross...
Filter Total Items: 54
Ecological thresholds and transformations due to climate change: The role of abiotic stress Ecological thresholds and transformations due to climate change: The role of abiotic stress
An ecological threshold is the point at which a comparatively small environmental change triggers an abrupt and disproportionately large ecological response. In the face of accelerating climate change, there is concern that abrupt ecosystem transformations will become more widespread as critical ecological thresholds are crossed. There has been ongoing debate, however, regarding the...
Authors
Michael Osland, John B. Bradford, Lauren Toth, Matthew J. Germino, James Grace, Judith Z. Drexler, Camille L. Stagg, Eric E. Grossman, Karen M. Thorne, Stephanie Romanach, Davina Passeri, Gregory E. Noe, Jessica R. Lacy, Ken Krauss, Kurt P. Kowalski, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Neil K. Ganju, Nicholas Enwright, Joel A. Carr, Kristin B. Byrd, Kevin Buffington
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, California Water Science Center, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Western Geographic Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center
Snapshots of mid-to-late Holocene sea-surface temperature variability from a subtropical western Atlantic coral reef Snapshots of mid-to-late Holocene sea-surface temperature variability from a subtropical western Atlantic coral reef
Large-scale Holocene climate reconstructions rely heavily on extratropical proxy records. Coral-based temperature reconstructions from the tropical and subtropical oceans therefore fill a critical spatial and temporal data gap, allowing for reconstruction of seasonally resolved temperature variability. We present five new, monthly-resolved sea-surface temperature (SST) reconstructions...
Authors
Jessica A. Jacobs, Julie N. Richey, Jennifer A. Flannery, Kaustubh Thiumalai, Lauren Toth
Re-evaluating Marine Isotope Stage 5a paleo-sea-level trends from across the Florida Keys reef tract Re-evaluating Marine Isotope Stage 5a paleo-sea-level trends from across the Florida Keys reef tract
Unraveling how Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) fluctuated during past warm periods can improve our understanding of linkages between sea-level fluctuations, orbital forcing, and ice-sheet dynamics. Current estimates of GMSL for Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5a and 5c — two warm intervals following the relatively well-documented MIS 5e — contain meters of uncertainty and fewer data due to...
Authors
Scarlette Hsia, Lauren Toth, Richard A. Mortlock, Charles Kerans
Modern coral range expansion off southeast Florida falls short of Late Holocene baseline Modern coral range expansion off southeast Florida falls short of Late Holocene baseline
As thermal stress and disease outbreaks decimate coral reefs throughout the tropics, there is growing evidence that higher latitude marine environments may provide crucial refuges for many at-risk, temperature-sensitive coral species. However, our understanding of how coral populations expand into new areas and sustain themselves over time is constrained by the limited scope of modern...
Authors
Peter Alexander Bacon Modys, Lauren Toth, William F. Precht, Anton E. Oleinik, Richard A. Mortlock
20th century warming in the lower Florida Keys was dominated by increasing winter temperatures 20th century warming in the lower Florida Keys was dominated by increasing winter temperatures
Long-lived Atlantic coral species like Orbicella faveolata are important archives of oceanographic change in shallow, marine environments like the Florida Keys. Not only can coral-based records extend for multiple centuries beyond the limits of the instrumental record, but they can also provide a more accurate representation of in situ conditions than gridded interpolated sea-surface...
Authors
Jennifer A. Flannery, Julie N. Richey, Lauren Toth, Madelyn Jean Mette
Stony coral tissue loss disease accelerated shifts in coral composition and declines in reef accretion potential in the Florida Keys Stony coral tissue loss disease accelerated shifts in coral composition and declines in reef accretion potential in the Florida Keys
Outbreaks of coral disease have been a dominant force shaping western Atlantic coral-reef assemblages since the late 1970s. Stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) is nonetheless having an unprecedented impact in the region. Whereas numerous studies over the last decade have worked to characterize this novel pathogen and its impacts on coral populations, few have quantified its...
Authors
Lauren Toth, Travis A. Courtney, Michael A. Colella, Robert R. Ruzicka
Non-USGS Publications**
Toth, L.T., I.G. Macintyre, and R.B. Aronson, 2017, Holocene reef development in the Tropical Eastern Pacific. In Glynn, P.W., D.P. Manzello, and I.C. Enochs (eds). Coral Reefs of the Eastern Pacific: Persistence and Loss in a Dynamic Environment. Springer-Verlag, New York. doi: 10.1007/978-94-017-7499-4_6.
Toth, L.T., R.B. Aronson, S.R. Smith, T.J.T. Murdoch, J.C. Ogden, W.F. Precht, and R. van Woesik, 2014, Do no-take reserves benefit corals? 14 years of stasis and change on Florida’s reefs. Coral Reefs 33:565–577, doi: 10.1007/s00338-014-1158-x.
Smith, T. B., Glynn, P. W., Maté, J. L., Toth, L. T. and Gyory, J., 2014, A depth refugium from catastrophic coral bleaching prevents regional extinction. Ecology, 95: 1663-1673. doi:10.1890/13-0468.1.
Staaterman, E.R., Z. Reichenbach, A. Bhandiwad, P. Gravinese, P. Moeller, A. Shantz, D.S. Shiffman, L.T. Toth, and A. Warneke, A.J. Gallagher, 2014, Lights, camera, science: The growing popularity of film festivals at scientific meetings. Ideas in Ecology and Evolution 7:11–16.
Aronson, R. B., Precht, W. F., Macintyre, I. G. and Toth, L. T., 2012, Catastrophe and the life span of coral reefs. Ecology, 93: 303-313, doi:10.1890/11-1037.1. doi:10.1126/science.1221168.
Toth, L.T., R.B. Aronson, S.V. Vollmer, J.W. Hobbs, D. Urrego, H. Cheng, I.C. Enochs, D.J. Combosch, R. van Woesik, and I.G. Macintyre, 2012, ENSO drove 2500-year collapse of eastern Pacific coral reefs. Science 337:81–84.
Enochs IC, Toth LT, Brandtneris VW, Afflerbach JC, Manzello DP, 2011, Environmental determinants of motile cryptofauna on an eastern Pacific coral reef. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 438:105-118. doi:10.3354/meps09259.
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Filter Total Items: 27