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Patrick Barnard (Former Employee)

Science and Products

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High coastal arctic bluff with broken chunks, some that are ready to fall into the crashing waves, and some that have fallen.

Coastal Climate Impacts

The impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic Oceans can vary tremendously. Thus far the vast majority of national and international impact assessments and models of coastal climate change have focused on low-relief coastlines that are not near seismically active zones. Furthermore, the degree to which extreme waves and wind will add further stress to coastal...
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Coastal Climate Impacts

Coastal Climate Impacts

The impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic Oceans can vary tremendously. Thus far the vast majority of national and international impact assessments and models of coastal climate change have focused on low-relief coastlines that are not near seismically active zones. Furthermore, the degree to which extreme waves and wind will add further stress to coastal...
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Aerial view of coastal bluffs, marine terrace with farmland, beach in distance with lagoon, highway runs along coast.

Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.

The west coast of the United States is extremely complex and changeable because of tectonic activity, mountain building, and land subsidence. These active environments pose a major challenge for accurately assessing climate change impacts, since models were historically developed for more passive sandy coasts.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Big Sur Landslides, Subduction Zone Science
Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.

Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.

The west coast of the United States is extremely complex and changeable because of tectonic activity, mountain building, and land subsidence. These active environments pose a major challenge for accurately assessing climate change impacts, since models were historically developed for more passive sandy coasts.
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Gentle river waters near grassy cliff in foreground, with a beach, and an amusement park in background, other buildings afar.

Climate impacts on Monterey Bay area beaches

For beach towns around Monterey Bay, preserving the beaches by mitigating coastal erosion is vital. Surveys conducted now and regularly in the future will help scientists understand the short- and long-term impacts of climate change, El Niño years, and sea-level rise on a populated and vulnerable coastline.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Climate impacts on Monterey Bay area beaches

Climate impacts on Monterey Bay area beaches

For beach towns around Monterey Bay, preserving the beaches by mitigating coastal erosion is vital. Surveys conducted now and regularly in the future will help scientists understand the short- and long-term impacts of climate change, El Niño years, and sea-level rise on a populated and vulnerable coastline.
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Satellite image of study area, showing forests, a bay or inlet, and estuaries and rivers.

PS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System

The CoSMoS model is currently available for most of the California coast and is now being expanded to support the 4.5 million coastal residents of the Puget Sound region, with emphasis on the communities bordering the sound.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
PS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System

PS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System

The CoSMoS model is currently available for most of the California coast and is now being expanded to support the 4.5 million coastal residents of the Puget Sound region, with emphasis on the communities bordering the sound.
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An interactive mapping application in which the user can choose parameters from the menus to create a computer model of flooding

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...
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Two maps illustrate two states of computer modeling scenarios around a large bay and coastal area.

CoSMoS-Groundwater

The USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) team has extensively studied overland flooding and coastal change due to rising seas and storms. Interactions with coastal stakeholders have elucidated another important question; will rising seas also intrude into coastal aquifers and raise groundwater tables? The CoSMoS-Groundwater (CoSMoS-GW) modeling effort seeks to provide initial insight into...
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
CoSMoS-Groundwater

CoSMoS-Groundwater

The USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) team has extensively studied overland flooding and coastal change due to rising seas and storms. Interactions with coastal stakeholders have elucidated another important question; will rising seas also intrude into coastal aquifers and raise groundwater tables? The CoSMoS-Groundwater (CoSMoS-GW) modeling effort seeks to provide initial insight into...
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Map of a western coastline with stretches of the coast labeled to identify data set regions.

CoSMoS 3.1: Central California

CoSMoS v3.1 for central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms)
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
CoSMoS 3.1: Central California

CoSMoS 3.1: Central California

CoSMoS v3.1 for central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms)
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Map background with colored blocks drawn on top if it to depict data regions or study areas, each area is labeled with words.

CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California

CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California

CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California

CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).
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Map shows the outline of a coastal area with a bay inlet and an outline along the coast showing a study area.

CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River

Building on the initial work in the Bay Area and Outer Coast, CoSMoS 2.2 adds river flows to help users project combined river and coastal flooding along the northern California coast from Bodega Head to Point Arena.
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River

CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River

Building on the initial work in the Bay Area and Outer Coast, CoSMoS 2.2 adds river flows to help users project combined river and coastal flooding along the northern California coast from Bodega Head to Point Arena.
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Pulsating animation shows a bay and estuaries and changing water depth during two days' worth of tidal cycles.

CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay

With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay

CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay

With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).
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Web browser screen showing an application with different parameters and controls on left and the resulting map on right.

CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)

Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)

CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)

Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.
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Map shows the outline of a coastal area with a large bay inlet with two oval study areas demarcated in the north and south bay.

Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay

The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay

Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay

The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).
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CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) modeled flood hazards for King County, Washington CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) modeled flood hazards for King County, Washington

This data release consists of flood hazard maps from compound coastal hazards--specifically sea-level rise (SLR), projected coastal storms, and streamflow. Products include projected flood depths, flood extents including uncertainties, water elevations, velocity hazards, and flood duration. These are generated using a suite of numerical models driven by outputs from Global Climate Models...
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) modeled flood hazards for Pierce County, Washington CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) modeled flood hazards for Pierce County, Washington

This data release consists of flood hazard maps from compound coastal hazards--specifically sea-level rise (SLR), projected coastal storms, and streamflow. Products include projected flood depths, flood extents including uncertainties, water elevations, velocity hazards, and flood duration. These are generated using a suite of numerical models driven by outputs from Global Climate Models...
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Digital elevation models (DEMs) of the beach and nearshore in Santa Cruz, California Digital elevation models (DEMs) of the beach and nearshore in Santa Cruz, California

This data release presents digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from bathymetric and topographic measurements collected offshore of Santa Cruz, CA, from 2014 to 2024. Bathymetry data were collected using two personal watercraft (PWCs), each equipped with single-beam echosounders and survey-grade global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers. Topography data were collected on...
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Shoreline data for Ocean Beach, San Francisco, California, 2004 to 2021 Shoreline data for Ocean Beach, San Francisco, California, 2004 to 2021

Beach shoreline positions were derived from 221 approximately monthly beach topography surveys from 2004 through 2021 at Ocean Beach in San Francisco, California. Shoreline shapefiles for local Mean High Water (1.619m NAVD88) and local Mean Sea Level (0.975m NAVD88) were created from each survey.
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Future coastal groundwater hazards in the Puget Sound region, Washington, U.S.A. Future coastal groundwater hazards in the Puget Sound region, Washington, U.S.A.

This data release contains model results for groundwater response to sea-level rise (SLR) in coastal areas around Puget Sound, Washington. The high resolution (50m) models predict steady-state unconfined groundwater heads under long-term (17y) average recharge conditions, with spatially variable hydraulic conductivities (Ks) from published models, and include model runs with Ks increased...
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Coastal hazards assessment associated with sea level rise and storms along the Whatcom County, Northwest Washington State coast Coastal hazards assessment associated with sea level rise and storms along the Whatcom County, Northwest Washington State coast

This product contains several datasets that map exposure to future forecasted hazards related to coastal flooding and extreme wave heights accounting for sea level rise (SLR) and climate change along the Whatcom County coast of northwestern Washington State in the Salish Sea. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available science and...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Projections of shoreline change for California due to 21st century sea-level rise Projections of shoreline change for California due to 21st century sea-level rise

This dataset contains projections of shoreline change and uncertainty bands across California for future scenarios of sea-level rise (SLR). Projections were made using the Coastal Storm Modeling System - Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool (CoSMoS-COAST), a numerical model run in an ensemble forced with global-to-local nested wave models and assimilated with satellite-derived...
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast

This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms for three States (Florida, Georgia, and Virginia) along the Atlantic coast of the United States. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available science and with enough resolution to support a suite of...
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Future coastal hazards along the U.S. North and South Carolina coasts Future coastal hazards along the U.S. North and South Carolina coasts

This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms along the North and South Carolina coast. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available, science and with enough resolution to support a suite of different planning horizons. The storm scenarios are...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Northern California 3.2 (ver. 1h, December 2025) Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Northern California 3.2 (ver. 1h, December 2025)

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future scenarios. CoSMoS 3.2 for Northern California shows projections for future scenarios (sea-level change and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Ocean wave time-series data simulated with a global-scale numerical wave model under the influence of historical and projected CMIP6 wind and sea ice fields (ver. 2.0, October 2024) Ocean wave time-series data simulated with a global-scale numerical wave model under the influence of historical and projected CMIP6 wind and sea ice fields (ver. 2.0, October 2024)

Hourly time-series of waves at the 20m, 50m, and 100m isobaths, along all U.S. open coasts for the historical (1979-2014) and projected (2020-2050) period: Those data (estimates of historical and long-term future conditions) were developed by running the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) WaveWatch3 wave model forced with winds and sea ice extents from four separate...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Surveillance and reports of Brown Treesnakes on Saipan, 1980-2020 Surveillance and reports of Brown Treesnakes on Saipan, 1980-2020

Available active surveillance efforts for Brown Treesnakes on the island of Saipan via nocturnal visual encounter surveys and trapping from 1999-2018 were collected and summarized into 3 csv files (TRAP1999, BTSRRTSaipanTRAP, and BTSRRTSaipanVISUAL). Location and date of non-confirmed reports of snakes 1982-2013 via passive surveillance were compiled into a fourth file (Saipan...
By
Fort Collins Science Center

Sand waves at the mouth of San Francisco Bay, California Sand waves at the mouth of San Francisco Bay, California

A multibeam bathymetric survey that produced unprecedented high resolution images of the mouth of San Francisco Bay was conducted in 2004 and 2005. The survey, performed over forty-four days by the Seafloor Mapping Lab at California State University, Monterey Bay, consisted of 1,138 track lines, 1.1 billion soundings, and covered an area of 154 km2 (60 mi2). The goals of this survey were...
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Under the Golden Gate Bridge — Views of the sea floor near the entrance to San Francisco Bay, California Under the Golden Gate Bridge — Views of the sea floor near the entrance to San Francisco Bay, California

San Francisco Bay in Northern California is one of the largest and most altered estuaries within the United States. The sea floor within the bay as well as at its entrance is constantly changing due to strong tidal currents, aggregate mining, dredge disposal, and the creation of new land using artificial fill. Understanding this dynamic sea floor is critical for addressing local...
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
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Mitigating flood risks in urban estuaries: Tidal dynamics, shoreline hardening, nature-based solutions, and floodgates in San Francisco Bay Mitigating flood risks in urban estuaries: Tidal dynamics, shoreline hardening, nature-based solutions, and floodgates in San Francisco Bay

Hydrodynamic models are valuable tools for understanding the primary factors influencing daily and peak water levels and for guiding discussions on potential adaptation strategies for managing flood risk in coastal areas. This analysis uses the Delft3D San Francisco Bay-Delta Community Model to simulate water levels and incorporates the effects of a number of adaptation measures in the...
Authors
Kees Nederhoff, Rohin Saleh, Patrick L. Barnard, Mark T. Stacey
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Are equilibrium shoreline models just convolutions? Are equilibrium shoreline models just convolutions?

Yes. Equilibrium shoreline models, which simulate wave-driven cross-shore erosion and accretion, are mathematically equivalent to a discrete convolution (i.e., a weighted, moving average) of a time series of wave-forcing conditions with a parameterized memory-decay kernel function. The direct equivalence between equilibrium shoreline models and convolutions reveals key theoretical...
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Daniel D. Buscombe, Eduardo Gomez-de la Peña, Kit Calcraft, Mark A. Lundine, Kristen D. Splinter, Giovanni Coco, Patrick L. Barnard
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Nature-based solutions extend the lifespan of a regional levee system under climate change Nature-based solutions extend the lifespan of a regional levee system under climate change

Nature-based solutions are receiving increasing attention as a cost-effective climate adaptation strategy. Horizontal levees are nature-based adaptation solutions that include a sloping wetland habitat buffer fronting a levee. They can offer a hybrid solution to reinforce traditional levees in estuarine areas—plants on the horizontal levee can provide wave attenuation benefits as well as...
Authors
Rae M. Taylor-Burns, Borja G. Reguero, Patrick L. Barnard, Michael W. Beck
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Predicted exposure of communities in southeastern United States to climate-related coastal hazards Predicted exposure of communities in southeastern United States to climate-related coastal hazards

A rigorous analysis of 21st Century multi-hazard exposure for U.S. Southeast Atlantic coastal communities indicates that up to 70% of residents will be exposed daily to shallow and emerging groundwater by ~2100, 15 times higher than from surficial flooding alone. This threat further exacerbates other coastal stressors, such as flooding, subsidence, and beach erosion, that impact these...
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Peter W Swarzenski
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Projections of multiple climate-related coastal hazards for the US Southeast Atlantic Projections of multiple climate-related coastal hazards for the US Southeast Atlantic

Faced with accelerating sea level rise and changing ocean storm conditions, coastal communities require comprehensive assessments of climate-driven hazard impacts to inform adaptation measures. Previous studies have focused on flooding but rarely on other climate-related coastal hazards, such as subsidence, beach erosion and groundwater. Here, we project societal exposure to multiple...
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Kevin M. Befus, Jeffrey J. Danielson, Anita C Engelstad, Li H. Erikson, Amy C. Foxgrover, Maya Kumari Hayden, Daniel J. Hoover, Tim Leijnse, Chris Massey, Robert T. McCall, Norberto Nadal-Caraballo, Kees Nederhoff, Andrea C. O'Neill, Kai Alexander Parker, Manoochehr Shirzaei, Leonard O. Ohenhen, Peter W Swarzenski, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Killian Vos, Nathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Jamie Jones
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Scalable, data-assimilated models predict large-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise Scalable, data-assimilated models predict large-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise

Coastal change is a complex combination of multi-scale processes (e.g., wave-driven cross-shore and longshore transport; dune, bluff, and cliff erosion; overwash; fluvial and inlet sediment supply; and sea-level-driven recession). Historical sea-level-driven coastal recession on open ocean coasts is often outpaced by wave-driven change. However, future sea-level-driven coastal recession...
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Kilian Vos, Kristen D. Splinter, Kai Alexander Parker, Andrea C. O'Neill, Amy C. Foxgrover, Maya Kumari Hayden, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards

Accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and changing storm patterns will increasingly expose barrier islands to coastal hazards, including flooding, erosion, and rising groundwater tables. We assess the exposure of Cape Lookout National Seashore, a barrier island system in North Carolina (USA), to projected SLR and storm hazards over the twenty-first century. We estimate that with 0.5 m of SLR...
Authors
Jennifer Anne Thomas, Patrick L. Barnard, Sean Vitousek, Li H. Erikson, Kai Alexander Parker, Kees Nederhoff, Kevin M. Befus, Manoochehr Shirzaei
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Correction to A regime shift in sediment export from a coastal watershed during a record wet winter, California: Implications for landscape response to hydroclimatic extremes Correction to A regime shift in sediment export from a coastal watershed during a record wet winter, California: Implications for landscape response to hydroclimatic extremes

In the referenced article, the authors would like to correct text in the first paragraph on page 2571, Figure 9 and its caption. The changes reflect an error made in the processing of the rainfall intensity-duration data used to compare storms to published debris flow triggering thresholds. The correctly processed data does not change the interpretations made in the paper but does...
Authors
Amy E. East, Andrew W. Stevens, Andrew C. Ritchie, Patrick L. Barnard, Pamela L. Campbell‐Swarzenski, Brian D. Collins, Christopher H. Conaway
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

A dataset of two-dimensional XBeach model set-up files for northern California A dataset of two-dimensional XBeach model set-up files for northern California

Here, we describe a dataset of two-dimensional (2D) XBeach model files that were developed for the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) in northern California as an update to an earlier CoSMoS implementation that relied on one-dimensional (1D) modeling methods. We provide details on the data and their application, such that they might be useful to end-users for other coastal studies...
Authors
Andrea C. O'Neill, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Li H. Erikson, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Patrick L. Barnard
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Transdisciplinary research supports the sustainability of barrier island systems threatened by climate change Transdisciplinary research supports the sustainability of barrier island systems threatened by climate change

The management of developed barrier islands is often piece-meal and reactionary despite the complex, dynamic nature of these systems, and sustainable practices will become increasingly difficult due to heightened pressures of climate change. Adaptation actions, including nature-based solutions, need to be thoroughly evaluated prior to implementation to understand system-wide impacts and...
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Davina L. Passeri
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change

Climate change is an existential threat to the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of the coastal zone and impacts will be complex and widespread. Evidence from California and across the United States shows that climate change is impacting coastal communities and challenging managers with a plethora of stressors already present. Widespread action could be taken that would...
Authors
Karen M. Thorne, Glen M. MacDonald, Francisco P. Chavez, Richard F. Ambrose, Patrick L. Barnard
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)

State of California sea level rise guidance: 2024 Science and policy update State of California sea level rise guidance: 2024 Science and policy update

No abstract available.
Authors
Susheel Adusumilli, Patrick L. Barnard, Daniel R. Cayan, Laura Engeman, Gary B. Griggs, Benjamin D. Hamlington, Kristina Hill, Felix Landerer, Phillip Thompson
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Non-USGS Publications**

Barnard, P.L., Owen, L.A. and Finkel, R.C., 2004. Style and timing of glacial and paraglacial sedimentation in a monsoonal-influenced high Himalayan environment, the upper Bhagirathi Valley, Garhwal Himalaya. Sedimentary Geology, Volume 165, p. 199-221, doi:10.1016/j.sedgeo.2003.11.009
Barnard, P.L., Owen, L.A., Sharma, M.C. and Finkel, R.C., 2004. Late Quaternary (Holocene) landscape evolution of a monsoon-influenced high Himalayan valley, Gori Ganga, Nanda Devi, NE Garhwal. Geomorphology, Volume 61 (1-2), p. 91-110, doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2003.12.002
Barnard, P.L., 2003. The Timing and Nature of Glaciofluvial Erosion and Resedimentation in the Himalaya: the Role of Glacial and Paraglacial Processes in the Evolution of High Mountain Landscapes. Published Ph.D. Thesis, University of California, Riverside, 295 pp.
Davis, R.A., Jr. and Barnard, P.L., 2003. Morphodynamics of the barrier-inlet system, west-central Florida. Marine Geology, Volume 200 (1-4), p. 77-101, doi:10.1016/S0025-3227(03)00178-6
Finkel, R.C., Owen, L.A., Barnard, P.L. and Caffee, M.W., 2003. Beryllium-10 dating of Mount Everest moraines indicates a strong monsoonal influence and glacial synchroneity throughout the Himalaya. Geology, Volume 31, p. 561-564, doi:10.1130/0091-7613(2003)031<0561:BDOMEM>2.0.CO;2
Owen, L.A., Finkel, R.C., Ma, H., Spencer, J.Q., Derbyshire, E., Barnard, P.L. and Caffee, M.W., 2003. Timing and style of Late Quaternary glaciation in northeastern Tibet. Geological Society of America Bulletin, Volume 115 (11), p. 1356-1364, doi:10.1130/B25314.1
Owen, L.A., Ma, H., Derbyshire, E., Spencer, J.Q., Barnard, P.L., Zeng, Y.N., Finkel, R.C. and Caffee, M.W., 2003. The timing and style of Late Quaternary glaciation in the La Ji Mountains, NE Tibet: evidence for restricted glaciation during the latter part of the Last Glacial. Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie, Supplemental Volume 130, p. 263-276, ISBN 978-3-443-21130-1
Owen, L.A., Spencer, J.Q., Ma, H., Barnard, P.L., Derbyshire, E., Finkel, R.C., Caffee, M.W. and Zeng, Y.N., 2003. Timing of Late Quaternary glaciation along the southwestern slopes of the Qilian Shan, Tibet. Boreas, Volume 32, p. 281-291, doi:10.1111/j.1502-3885.2003.tb01083.x
Van der Woerd, J., Owen, L.A., Tapponnier, P., Xiwei, X., Kervyn, F., Finkel, R.C. and Barnard, P.L., 2003. Giant, ~M8 earthquake-triggered ice avalanches in the eastern Kunlun Shan, Northern Tibet: characteristics, nature and dynamics. Geological Society of America Bulletin, Volume 116 (3), p. 394-406, doi:10.1130/B25317.1
Barnard, P.L., Owen, L.A., Sharma, M.C. and Finkel, R.C., 2001. Natural and human-induced landsliding in the Garhwal Himalaya of Northern India. Geomorphology, Volume 40, p. 21-35, doi:10.1016/S0169-555X(01)00035-6
Davis, R.A., Jr. and Barnard, P.L., 2000. How anthropogenic factors in the back-barrier influence tidal inlet stability: examples from the Gulf Coast of Florida, USA. In: Pye, K. and Allen, J.R.L. (Eds.), Coastal and Estuarine Environments: sedimentology, geomorphology and geoarchaeology. Geological Society, London, Special Publication Number 175, p. 293-303, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.2000.175.01.21
Barnard, P.L. and Owen, L.A., 2000. A selected bibliography for Late Quaternary glaciation in Tibet and Bordering Mountains. Quaternary International, Volume 65/66, p. 193-212
Barnard, P.L. and Davis, R.A., Jr., 1999. Anthropogenic vs. natural influences on inlet evolution: west-central Florida. Coastal Sediments ’99 Conference Proceedings, Fire Island, New York, Volume 2, p. 1489-1504
Barnard, P.L., 1998. Historical Morphodynamics of Inlet Channels: West-Central Florida. Master’s Thesis, University of South Florida, 179 pp.

**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.

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Science and Products

Filter Total Items: 15
High coastal arctic bluff with broken chunks, some that are ready to fall into the crashing waves, and some that have fallen.

Coastal Climate Impacts

The impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic Oceans can vary tremendously. Thus far the vast majority of national and international impact assessments and models of coastal climate change have focused on low-relief coastlines that are not near seismically active zones. Furthermore, the degree to which extreme waves and wind will add further stress to coastal...
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Coastal Climate Impacts

Coastal Climate Impacts

The impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic Oceans can vary tremendously. Thus far the vast majority of national and international impact assessments and models of coastal climate change have focused on low-relief coastlines that are not near seismically active zones. Furthermore, the degree to which extreme waves and wind will add further stress to coastal...
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Aerial view of coastal bluffs, marine terrace with farmland, beach in distance with lagoon, highway runs along coast.

Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.

The west coast of the United States is extremely complex and changeable because of tectonic activity, mountain building, and land subsidence. These active environments pose a major challenge for accurately assessing climate change impacts, since models were historically developed for more passive sandy coasts.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Big Sur Landslides, Subduction Zone Science
Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.

Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.

The west coast of the United States is extremely complex and changeable because of tectonic activity, mountain building, and land subsidence. These active environments pose a major challenge for accurately assessing climate change impacts, since models were historically developed for more passive sandy coasts.
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Gentle river waters near grassy cliff in foreground, with a beach, and an amusement park in background, other buildings afar.

Climate impacts on Monterey Bay area beaches

For beach towns around Monterey Bay, preserving the beaches by mitigating coastal erosion is vital. Surveys conducted now and regularly in the future will help scientists understand the short- and long-term impacts of climate change, El Niño years, and sea-level rise on a populated and vulnerable coastline.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Climate impacts on Monterey Bay area beaches

Climate impacts on Monterey Bay area beaches

For beach towns around Monterey Bay, preserving the beaches by mitigating coastal erosion is vital. Surveys conducted now and regularly in the future will help scientists understand the short- and long-term impacts of climate change, El Niño years, and sea-level rise on a populated and vulnerable coastline.
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Satellite image of study area, showing forests, a bay or inlet, and estuaries and rivers.

PS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System

The CoSMoS model is currently available for most of the California coast and is now being expanded to support the 4.5 million coastal residents of the Puget Sound region, with emphasis on the communities bordering the sound.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
PS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System

PS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System

The CoSMoS model is currently available for most of the California coast and is now being expanded to support the 4.5 million coastal residents of the Puget Sound region, with emphasis on the communities bordering the sound.
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An interactive mapping application in which the user can choose parameters from the menus to create a computer model of flooding

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...
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Two maps illustrate two states of computer modeling scenarios around a large bay and coastal area.

CoSMoS-Groundwater

The USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) team has extensively studied overland flooding and coastal change due to rising seas and storms. Interactions with coastal stakeholders have elucidated another important question; will rising seas also intrude into coastal aquifers and raise groundwater tables? The CoSMoS-Groundwater (CoSMoS-GW) modeling effort seeks to provide initial insight into...
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
CoSMoS-Groundwater

CoSMoS-Groundwater

The USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) team has extensively studied overland flooding and coastal change due to rising seas and storms. Interactions with coastal stakeholders have elucidated another important question; will rising seas also intrude into coastal aquifers and raise groundwater tables? The CoSMoS-Groundwater (CoSMoS-GW) modeling effort seeks to provide initial insight into...
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Map of a western coastline with stretches of the coast labeled to identify data set regions.

CoSMoS 3.1: Central California

CoSMoS v3.1 for central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms)
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
CoSMoS 3.1: Central California

CoSMoS 3.1: Central California

CoSMoS v3.1 for central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms)
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Map background with colored blocks drawn on top if it to depict data regions or study areas, each area is labeled with words.

CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California

CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California

CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California

CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).
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Map shows the outline of a coastal area with a bay inlet and an outline along the coast showing a study area.

CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River

Building on the initial work in the Bay Area and Outer Coast, CoSMoS 2.2 adds river flows to help users project combined river and coastal flooding along the northern California coast from Bodega Head to Point Arena.
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River

CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River

Building on the initial work in the Bay Area and Outer Coast, CoSMoS 2.2 adds river flows to help users project combined river and coastal flooding along the northern California coast from Bodega Head to Point Arena.
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Pulsating animation shows a bay and estuaries and changing water depth during two days' worth of tidal cycles.

CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay

With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).
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Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay

CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay

With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).
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Web browser screen showing an application with different parameters and controls on left and the resulting map on right.

CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)

Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)

CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)

Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.
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Map shows the outline of a coastal area with a large bay inlet with two oval study areas demarcated in the north and south bay.

Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay

The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay

Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay

The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).
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CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) modeled flood hazards for King County, Washington CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) modeled flood hazards for King County, Washington

This data release consists of flood hazard maps from compound coastal hazards--specifically sea-level rise (SLR), projected coastal storms, and streamflow. Products include projected flood depths, flood extents including uncertainties, water elevations, velocity hazards, and flood duration. These are generated using a suite of numerical models driven by outputs from Global Climate Models...
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) modeled flood hazards for Pierce County, Washington CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) modeled flood hazards for Pierce County, Washington

This data release consists of flood hazard maps from compound coastal hazards--specifically sea-level rise (SLR), projected coastal storms, and streamflow. Products include projected flood depths, flood extents including uncertainties, water elevations, velocity hazards, and flood duration. These are generated using a suite of numerical models driven by outputs from Global Climate Models...
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Digital elevation models (DEMs) of the beach and nearshore in Santa Cruz, California Digital elevation models (DEMs) of the beach and nearshore in Santa Cruz, California

This data release presents digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from bathymetric and topographic measurements collected offshore of Santa Cruz, CA, from 2014 to 2024. Bathymetry data were collected using two personal watercraft (PWCs), each equipped with single-beam echosounders and survey-grade global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers. Topography data were collected on...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Shoreline data for Ocean Beach, San Francisco, California, 2004 to 2021 Shoreline data for Ocean Beach, San Francisco, California, 2004 to 2021

Beach shoreline positions were derived from 221 approximately monthly beach topography surveys from 2004 through 2021 at Ocean Beach in San Francisco, California. Shoreline shapefiles for local Mean High Water (1.619m NAVD88) and local Mean Sea Level (0.975m NAVD88) were created from each survey.
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Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Future coastal groundwater hazards in the Puget Sound region, Washington, U.S.A. Future coastal groundwater hazards in the Puget Sound region, Washington, U.S.A.

This data release contains model results for groundwater response to sea-level rise (SLR) in coastal areas around Puget Sound, Washington. The high resolution (50m) models predict steady-state unconfined groundwater heads under long-term (17y) average recharge conditions, with spatially variable hydraulic conductivities (Ks) from published models, and include model runs with Ks increased...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Coastal hazards assessment associated with sea level rise and storms along the Whatcom County, Northwest Washington State coast Coastal hazards assessment associated with sea level rise and storms along the Whatcom County, Northwest Washington State coast

This product contains several datasets that map exposure to future forecasted hazards related to coastal flooding and extreme wave heights accounting for sea level rise (SLR) and climate change along the Whatcom County coast of northwestern Washington State in the Salish Sea. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available science and...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Projections of shoreline change for California due to 21st century sea-level rise Projections of shoreline change for California due to 21st century sea-level rise

This dataset contains projections of shoreline change and uncertainty bands across California for future scenarios of sea-level rise (SLR). Projections were made using the Coastal Storm Modeling System - Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool (CoSMoS-COAST), a numerical model run in an ensemble forced with global-to-local nested wave models and assimilated with satellite-derived...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast

This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms for three States (Florida, Georgia, and Virginia) along the Atlantic coast of the United States. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available science and with enough resolution to support a suite of...
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Future coastal hazards along the U.S. North and South Carolina coasts Future coastal hazards along the U.S. North and South Carolina coasts

This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms along the North and South Carolina coast. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available, science and with enough resolution to support a suite of different planning horizons. The storm scenarios are...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Northern California 3.2 (ver. 1h, December 2025) Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Northern California 3.2 (ver. 1h, December 2025)

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future scenarios. CoSMoS 3.2 for Northern California shows projections for future scenarios (sea-level change and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Ocean wave time-series data simulated with a global-scale numerical wave model under the influence of historical and projected CMIP6 wind and sea ice fields (ver. 2.0, October 2024) Ocean wave time-series data simulated with a global-scale numerical wave model under the influence of historical and projected CMIP6 wind and sea ice fields (ver. 2.0, October 2024)

Hourly time-series of waves at the 20m, 50m, and 100m isobaths, along all U.S. open coasts for the historical (1979-2014) and projected (2020-2050) period: Those data (estimates of historical and long-term future conditions) were developed by running the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) WaveWatch3 wave model forced with winds and sea ice extents from four separate...
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Surveillance and reports of Brown Treesnakes on Saipan, 1980-2020 Surveillance and reports of Brown Treesnakes on Saipan, 1980-2020

Available active surveillance efforts for Brown Treesnakes on the island of Saipan via nocturnal visual encounter surveys and trapping from 1999-2018 were collected and summarized into 3 csv files (TRAP1999, BTSRRTSaipanTRAP, and BTSRRTSaipanVISUAL). Location and date of non-confirmed reports of snakes 1982-2013 via passive surveillance were compiled into a fourth file (Saipan...
By
Fort Collins Science Center

Sand waves at the mouth of San Francisco Bay, California Sand waves at the mouth of San Francisco Bay, California

A multibeam bathymetric survey that produced unprecedented high resolution images of the mouth of San Francisco Bay was conducted in 2004 and 2005. The survey, performed over forty-four days by the Seafloor Mapping Lab at California State University, Monterey Bay, consisted of 1,138 track lines, 1.1 billion soundings, and covered an area of 154 km2 (60 mi2). The goals of this survey were...
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Under the Golden Gate Bridge — Views of the sea floor near the entrance to San Francisco Bay, California Under the Golden Gate Bridge — Views of the sea floor near the entrance to San Francisco Bay, California

San Francisco Bay in Northern California is one of the largest and most altered estuaries within the United States. The sea floor within the bay as well as at its entrance is constantly changing due to strong tidal currents, aggregate mining, dredge disposal, and the creation of new land using artificial fill. Understanding this dynamic sea floor is critical for addressing local...
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
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Mitigating flood risks in urban estuaries: Tidal dynamics, shoreline hardening, nature-based solutions, and floodgates in San Francisco Bay Mitigating flood risks in urban estuaries: Tidal dynamics, shoreline hardening, nature-based solutions, and floodgates in San Francisco Bay

Hydrodynamic models are valuable tools for understanding the primary factors influencing daily and peak water levels and for guiding discussions on potential adaptation strategies for managing flood risk in coastal areas. This analysis uses the Delft3D San Francisco Bay-Delta Community Model to simulate water levels and incorporates the effects of a number of adaptation measures in the...
Authors
Kees Nederhoff, Rohin Saleh, Patrick L. Barnard, Mark T. Stacey
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Are equilibrium shoreline models just convolutions? Are equilibrium shoreline models just convolutions?

Yes. Equilibrium shoreline models, which simulate wave-driven cross-shore erosion and accretion, are mathematically equivalent to a discrete convolution (i.e., a weighted, moving average) of a time series of wave-forcing conditions with a parameterized memory-decay kernel function. The direct equivalence between equilibrium shoreline models and convolutions reveals key theoretical...
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Daniel D. Buscombe, Eduardo Gomez-de la Peña, Kit Calcraft, Mark A. Lundine, Kristen D. Splinter, Giovanni Coco, Patrick L. Barnard
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Nature-based solutions extend the lifespan of a regional levee system under climate change Nature-based solutions extend the lifespan of a regional levee system under climate change

Nature-based solutions are receiving increasing attention as a cost-effective climate adaptation strategy. Horizontal levees are nature-based adaptation solutions that include a sloping wetland habitat buffer fronting a levee. They can offer a hybrid solution to reinforce traditional levees in estuarine areas—plants on the horizontal levee can provide wave attenuation benefits as well as...
Authors
Rae M. Taylor-Burns, Borja G. Reguero, Patrick L. Barnard, Michael W. Beck
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Predicted exposure of communities in southeastern United States to climate-related coastal hazards Predicted exposure of communities in southeastern United States to climate-related coastal hazards

A rigorous analysis of 21st Century multi-hazard exposure for U.S. Southeast Atlantic coastal communities indicates that up to 70% of residents will be exposed daily to shallow and emerging groundwater by ~2100, 15 times higher than from surficial flooding alone. This threat further exacerbates other coastal stressors, such as flooding, subsidence, and beach erosion, that impact these...
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Peter W Swarzenski
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Projections of multiple climate-related coastal hazards for the US Southeast Atlantic Projections of multiple climate-related coastal hazards for the US Southeast Atlantic

Faced with accelerating sea level rise and changing ocean storm conditions, coastal communities require comprehensive assessments of climate-driven hazard impacts to inform adaptation measures. Previous studies have focused on flooding but rarely on other climate-related coastal hazards, such as subsidence, beach erosion and groundwater. Here, we project societal exposure to multiple...
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Kevin M. Befus, Jeffrey J. Danielson, Anita C Engelstad, Li H. Erikson, Amy C. Foxgrover, Maya Kumari Hayden, Daniel J. Hoover, Tim Leijnse, Chris Massey, Robert T. McCall, Norberto Nadal-Caraballo, Kees Nederhoff, Andrea C. O'Neill, Kai Alexander Parker, Manoochehr Shirzaei, Leonard O. Ohenhen, Peter W Swarzenski, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Killian Vos, Nathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Jamie Jones
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Scalable, data-assimilated models predict large-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise Scalable, data-assimilated models predict large-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise

Coastal change is a complex combination of multi-scale processes (e.g., wave-driven cross-shore and longshore transport; dune, bluff, and cliff erosion; overwash; fluvial and inlet sediment supply; and sea-level-driven recession). Historical sea-level-driven coastal recession on open ocean coasts is often outpaced by wave-driven change. However, future sea-level-driven coastal recession...
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Kilian Vos, Kristen D. Splinter, Kai Alexander Parker, Andrea C. O'Neill, Amy C. Foxgrover, Maya Kumari Hayden, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards

Accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and changing storm patterns will increasingly expose barrier islands to coastal hazards, including flooding, erosion, and rising groundwater tables. We assess the exposure of Cape Lookout National Seashore, a barrier island system in North Carolina (USA), to projected SLR and storm hazards over the twenty-first century. We estimate that with 0.5 m of SLR...
Authors
Jennifer Anne Thomas, Patrick L. Barnard, Sean Vitousek, Li H. Erikson, Kai Alexander Parker, Kees Nederhoff, Kevin M. Befus, Manoochehr Shirzaei
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Correction to A regime shift in sediment export from a coastal watershed during a record wet winter, California: Implications for landscape response to hydroclimatic extremes Correction to A regime shift in sediment export from a coastal watershed during a record wet winter, California: Implications for landscape response to hydroclimatic extremes

In the referenced article, the authors would like to correct text in the first paragraph on page 2571, Figure 9 and its caption. The changes reflect an error made in the processing of the rainfall intensity-duration data used to compare storms to published debris flow triggering thresholds. The correctly processed data does not change the interpretations made in the paper but does...
Authors
Amy E. East, Andrew W. Stevens, Andrew C. Ritchie, Patrick L. Barnard, Pamela L. Campbell‐Swarzenski, Brian D. Collins, Christopher H. Conaway
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

A dataset of two-dimensional XBeach model set-up files for northern California A dataset of two-dimensional XBeach model set-up files for northern California

Here, we describe a dataset of two-dimensional (2D) XBeach model files that were developed for the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) in northern California as an update to an earlier CoSMoS implementation that relied on one-dimensional (1D) modeling methods. We provide details on the data and their application, such that they might be useful to end-users for other coastal studies...
Authors
Andrea C. O'Neill, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Li H. Erikson, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Patrick L. Barnard
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Transdisciplinary research supports the sustainability of barrier island systems threatened by climate change Transdisciplinary research supports the sustainability of barrier island systems threatened by climate change

The management of developed barrier islands is often piece-meal and reactionary despite the complex, dynamic nature of these systems, and sustainable practices will become increasingly difficult due to heightened pressures of climate change. Adaptation actions, including nature-based solutions, need to be thoroughly evaluated prior to implementation to understand system-wide impacts and...
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Davina L. Passeri
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change

Climate change is an existential threat to the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of the coastal zone and impacts will be complex and widespread. Evidence from California and across the United States shows that climate change is impacting coastal communities and challenging managers with a plethora of stressors already present. Widespread action could be taken that would...
Authors
Karen M. Thorne, Glen M. MacDonald, Francisco P. Chavez, Richard F. Ambrose, Patrick L. Barnard
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)

State of California sea level rise guidance: 2024 Science and policy update State of California sea level rise guidance: 2024 Science and policy update

No abstract available.
Authors
Susheel Adusumilli, Patrick L. Barnard, Daniel R. Cayan, Laura Engeman, Gary B. Griggs, Benjamin D. Hamlington, Kristina Hill, Felix Landerer, Phillip Thompson
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Non-USGS Publications**

Barnard, P.L., Owen, L.A. and Finkel, R.C., 2004. Style and timing of glacial and paraglacial sedimentation in a monsoonal-influenced high Himalayan environment, the upper Bhagirathi Valley, Garhwal Himalaya. Sedimentary Geology, Volume 165, p. 199-221, doi:10.1016/j.sedgeo.2003.11.009
Barnard, P.L., Owen, L.A., Sharma, M.C. and Finkel, R.C., 2004. Late Quaternary (Holocene) landscape evolution of a monsoon-influenced high Himalayan valley, Gori Ganga, Nanda Devi, NE Garhwal. Geomorphology, Volume 61 (1-2), p. 91-110, doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2003.12.002
Barnard, P.L., 2003. The Timing and Nature of Glaciofluvial Erosion and Resedimentation in the Himalaya: the Role of Glacial and Paraglacial Processes in the Evolution of High Mountain Landscapes. Published Ph.D. Thesis, University of California, Riverside, 295 pp.
Davis, R.A., Jr. and Barnard, P.L., 2003. Morphodynamics of the barrier-inlet system, west-central Florida. Marine Geology, Volume 200 (1-4), p. 77-101, doi:10.1016/S0025-3227(03)00178-6
Finkel, R.C., Owen, L.A., Barnard, P.L. and Caffee, M.W., 2003. Beryllium-10 dating of Mount Everest moraines indicates a strong monsoonal influence and glacial synchroneity throughout the Himalaya. Geology, Volume 31, p. 561-564, doi:10.1130/0091-7613(2003)031<0561:BDOMEM>2.0.CO;2
Owen, L.A., Finkel, R.C., Ma, H., Spencer, J.Q., Derbyshire, E., Barnard, P.L. and Caffee, M.W., 2003. Timing and style of Late Quaternary glaciation in northeastern Tibet. Geological Society of America Bulletin, Volume 115 (11), p. 1356-1364, doi:10.1130/B25314.1
Owen, L.A., Ma, H., Derbyshire, E., Spencer, J.Q., Barnard, P.L., Zeng, Y.N., Finkel, R.C. and Caffee, M.W., 2003. The timing and style of Late Quaternary glaciation in the La Ji Mountains, NE Tibet: evidence for restricted glaciation during the latter part of the Last Glacial. Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie, Supplemental Volume 130, p. 263-276, ISBN 978-3-443-21130-1
Owen, L.A., Spencer, J.Q., Ma, H., Barnard, P.L., Derbyshire, E., Finkel, R.C., Caffee, M.W. and Zeng, Y.N., 2003. Timing of Late Quaternary glaciation along the southwestern slopes of the Qilian Shan, Tibet. Boreas, Volume 32, p. 281-291, doi:10.1111/j.1502-3885.2003.tb01083.x
Van der Woerd, J., Owen, L.A., Tapponnier, P., Xiwei, X., Kervyn, F., Finkel, R.C. and Barnard, P.L., 2003. Giant, ~M8 earthquake-triggered ice avalanches in the eastern Kunlun Shan, Northern Tibet: characteristics, nature and dynamics. Geological Society of America Bulletin, Volume 116 (3), p. 394-406, doi:10.1130/B25317.1
Barnard, P.L., Owen, L.A., Sharma, M.C. and Finkel, R.C., 2001. Natural and human-induced landsliding in the Garhwal Himalaya of Northern India. Geomorphology, Volume 40, p. 21-35, doi:10.1016/S0169-555X(01)00035-6
Davis, R.A., Jr. and Barnard, P.L., 2000. How anthropogenic factors in the back-barrier influence tidal inlet stability: examples from the Gulf Coast of Florida, USA. In: Pye, K. and Allen, J.R.L. (Eds.), Coastal and Estuarine Environments: sedimentology, geomorphology and geoarchaeology. Geological Society, London, Special Publication Number 175, p. 293-303, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.2000.175.01.21
Barnard, P.L. and Owen, L.A., 2000. A selected bibliography for Late Quaternary glaciation in Tibet and Bordering Mountains. Quaternary International, Volume 65/66, p. 193-212
Barnard, P.L. and Davis, R.A., Jr., 1999. Anthropogenic vs. natural influences on inlet evolution: west-central Florida. Coastal Sediments ’99 Conference Proceedings, Fire Island, New York, Volume 2, p. 1489-1504
Barnard, P.L., 1998. Historical Morphodynamics of Inlet Channels: West-Central Florida. Master’s Thesis, University of South Florida, 179 pp.

**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.

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