The impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic Oceans can vary tremendously. Thus far the vast majority of national and international impact assessments and models of coastal climate change have focused on low-relief coastlines that are not near seismically active zones. Furthermore, the degree to which extreme waves and wind will add further stress to coastal systems has also been largely disregarded. By working to refine this area of research, USGS aims to help coastal managers and inhabitants understand how their coasts will change.
Why research on climate change and sea-level rise is important
Climate change and sea-level rise are already impacting coastal communities in many locations worldwide, including the U.S. west coast, Alaska, Hawaiʻi, and U.S. affiliated Pacific islands.
In the western tropical Pacific, elevated rates of sea-level rise (up to 1 centimeter/year) affect coastal infrastructure, freshwater resources, and terrestrial and marine ecosystems on U.S.-affiliated islands like the Marshall Islands, American Samoa, and the Northern Marianas. Alterations in storm patterns, contamination of freshwater aquifers by saltwater flooding, and permanent inundation by rising sea level—all fueled by climate change—threaten long-term human habitation on many of these atolls. Efforts to relocate coastal inhabitants from some low-lying Pacific Islands are already underway.
Along Arctic shores of Alaska, shoreline erosion and habitat loss are accelerating due to increasing permafrost thaw and sea ice forming much later in the year, leaving the coast more susceptible to waves and storm surge. Alaskan government agencies and land-use planners are relocating some Native Alaskan villages and critical airstrips farther inland from eroding shores, such as Kivalina on the northwestern coast.
The U.S. west coast is vulnerable as well. In California alone, roughly half a million people and $100 billion worth of coastal property are at risk during the next century. In highly developed coastal areas such as San Francisco Bay and Puget Sound, hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent on restoration of nearshore ecosystems, which protect shorelines from erosion by waves and provide habitat for socially and economically important species. But resource managers remain uncertain whether outcomes of these efforts will be resilient to projected sea-level rise.
Because the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic vary considerably, no single solution can mitigate the impacts. Coastal communities, along with federal, state, and local managers, need better scientific information and tools to plan for the particular threats they may face from saltwater flooding, shoreline erosion, and habitat loss.
Historically, simple “bathtub” models of future sea levels have assumed a static coast—one that is neither subsiding nor rising, neither retreating nor growing seaward—and they calculate future flooding based on just sea-level rise and tides, ignoring the impacts of storms. Those models cannot adequately account for the diverse influences that affect most coasts, including sediment input, how the coast is shaped, and “forcings”—atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that force the environment to change (for example, wind and circulation patterns, wave heights and directions).
Thus, in tectonically active coastlines like the U.S. west coast, USGS seeks to develop models that incorporate sea-level rise projections combined with storm impacts, as well as potential changes in wave heights and storm patterns associated with climate change.
What the USGS is doing
We are developing rigorous research tools to understand the physical impacts that climate change and sea-level rise will have on dynamic geologic settings along Pacific and Arctic coasts. This research covers an enormous range of coastal settings: from permafrost coasts, to the Puget Sound estuary, the California coast, and low-lying Pacific atolls.
By understanding the effects of extreme storms, including coastal flooding, changes in the shoreline, and movement of sediment, we can develop better models for understanding long-term vulnerability of sea-level rise in various coastal settings, and help coastal managers and businesses plan for a changing climate.
Our areas of study include the following, with brief descriptions of each.
Climate impacts to Arctic coasts
The Arctic region is warming faster than anywhere else in the nation. Understanding the rates and causes of coastal change in Alaska is needed to identify and mitigate hazards that might affect people and animals that call Alaska home.
Low-lying areas of tropical Pacific islands
Sea level is rising faster than projected in the western Pacific, so understanding how wave-driven coastal flooding will affect inhabited, low-lying islands—most notably, the familiar ring-shaped atolls—as well as the low-elevation areas of high islands in the Pacific Ocean, is critical for decision-makers in protecting infrastructure or relocating resources and people.

Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.
The west coast of the United States is extremely complex and changeable because of tectonic activity, mountain building, and land subsidence. These active environments pose a major challenge for accurately assessing climate change impacts, since models were historically developed for more passive sandy coasts.
Estuaries and large river deltas in the Pacific Northwest
Essential habitat for wild salmon and other wildlife borders river deltas and estuaries in the Pacific Northwest. These estuaries also support industry, agriculture, and a large human population that’s expected to double by the year 2060, but each could suffer from more severe river floods, higher sea level, and storm surges caused by climate change.
Climate impacts on Monterey Bay area beaches
For a beach town like Santa Cruz, preserving beaches by mitigating coastal erosion is vital. USGS scientists conduct regular surveys of the beaches in the Monterey Bay region to better understand the short- and long-term impacts of climate change, El Niño years, and sea-level rise on a populated and vulnerable coastline.
Collaborators
Collaborators include USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program colleagues in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, and St. Petersburg, Florida, and researchers with the USGS Western Ecological Research Center on Mare Island, California. Academic collaborators include those from University of Hawaiʻi, Oregon State University, University of Alaska, University of California, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and University of Cantabria (Spain). Also involved are colleagues and federal partners from such agencies as the U.S. National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Department of Defense, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Below are all of the research topics associated with this project.
Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.
Low-lying areas of tropical Pacific islands
Climate impacts to Arctic coasts
Using Video Imagery to Study Coastal Change: Santa Cruz Beaches
Climate impacts on Monterey Bay area beaches
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
Using Video Imagery to Study Wave Dynamics: Unalakleet
Using Video Imagery to Study Coastal Change: Sunset State Beach
Using Video Imagery to Study Sediment Transport and Wave Dynamics: Nuvuk (Point Barrow)
Estuaries and large river deltas in the Pacific Northwest
Coastal Change Hazards
Below are data releases associated with this project.
Model parameter input files to compare the influence of channels in fringing coral reefs on alongshore variations in wave-driven runup along the shoreline
Wave model results of the central Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska
Modeled extreme total water levels along the U.S. west coast
Model parameter input files to compare locations of coral reef restoration on different reef profiles to reduce coastal flooding
California shorelines and shoreline change data, 1998-2016
A GIS compilation of vector shorelines and coastal bluff edge positions, and associated rate-of-change data for Barter Island, Alaska
Modeled 21st century storm surge, waves, and coastal flood hazards and supporting oceanographic and geological field data (2010 and 2011) for Arey and Barter Islands, Alaska and vicinity
Projected responses of the coastal water table for California using present-day and future sea-level rise scenarios
Coral reef profiles for wave-runup prediction
Model parameter input files to compare wave-averaged versus wave-resolving XBeach coastal flooding models for coral reef-lined coasts
Physics-based numerical model simulations of wave propagation over and around theoretical atoll and island morphologies for sea-level rise scenarios
Projected flooding extents and depths based on 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year wave-energy return periods, with and without coral reefs, for the States of Hawaii and Florida, the Territories of Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
Below are publications associated with this project.
A numerical study of geomorphic and oceanographic controls on wave-driven runup on fringing reefs with shore-normal channels
Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast
Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States
Digital Twin Earth - Coasts: Developing a fast and physics-informed surrogate model for coastal floods via neural operators
Projecting climate dependent coastal flood risk with a hybrid statistical dynamical model
Assessment of barrier island morphological change in northern Alaska
Drivers of extreme water levels in a large, urban, high-energy coastal estuary – A case study of the San Francisco Bay
Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems
Global-scale changes to extreme ocean wave events due to anthropogenic warming
Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines
The value of US coral reefs for flood risk reduction
The application of ensemble wave forcing to quantify uncertainty of shoreline change predictions
Below are data releases associated with this project.
Future Coastal Flooding
Prediction of Flooding Now and Into the Future: a geonarrative on coastal storms
Coastal Change in Alaska
Alaska's north coast has been home to indigenous communities for centuries. Changing coastlines threaten important infrastructure and historic sites that support indigenous communities. Changing coastlines also can potentially reduce habitat for Arctic wildlife, such as polar bears, shorebirds, and walruses. Oil- and gas-related development sites and U.S. Department of Defense installations
The Role of U.S. Coral Reefs in Coastal Protection
U.S. Geological Survey scientists have shown that along with providing food, tourism, and biodiversity, coral reefs also protect dollars and lives. This interactive geonarrative introduces the USGS research to understand the role of US coral reefs in coastal protection.
National Shoreline Change
Exploring Shoreline Positions of the United States From the 1800s To The Present. This geonarrative explains how the USGS derives shorelines from various data sources, and how shoreline change rates are generated from these data. The Natural Hazards Mission Area programs of the USGS develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation.
Real-Time Forecasts of Coastal Change
U.S. Geological Survey researchers develop tools to forecast coastal change hazards. This geonarrative features research and tools developed to forecast real-time coastal change.
Our Coasts
USGS Coastal Change Hazards research provides scientific tools to protect lives, property, and the economic well being of the Nation. The mission of the USGS Coastal Change Hazards Program is to provide research and tools to protect lives, property, and the economic well-being of the Nation. This is a story map that introduces the value of our coasts and the threats they face with global change.
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Below are partners associated with this project.
- Overview
The impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic Oceans can vary tremendously. Thus far the vast majority of national and international impact assessments and models of coastal climate change have focused on low-relief coastlines that are not near seismically active zones. Furthermore, the degree to which extreme waves and wind will add further stress to coastal systems has also been largely disregarded. By working to refine this area of research, USGS aims to help coastal managers and inhabitants understand how their coasts will change.
Why research on climate change and sea-level rise is important
This nearly century-old whaling boat rests along the Beaufort Sea coast near Lonely, Alaska in July, 2007. The boat was washed away to sea just a few months later. Climate change and sea-level rise are already impacting coastal communities in many locations worldwide, including the U.S. west coast, Alaska, Hawaiʻi, and U.S. affiliated Pacific islands.
In the western tropical Pacific, elevated rates of sea-level rise (up to 1 centimeter/year) affect coastal infrastructure, freshwater resources, and terrestrial and marine ecosystems on U.S.-affiliated islands like the Marshall Islands, American Samoa, and the Northern Marianas. Alterations in storm patterns, contamination of freshwater aquifers by saltwater flooding, and permanent inundation by rising sea level—all fueled by climate change—threaten long-term human habitation on many of these atolls. Efforts to relocate coastal inhabitants from some low-lying Pacific Islands are already underway.
Two photographs of Mitchell Cove beach on the west side of Santa Cruz during the 1997-1998 ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) winter. The top photo was taken under relatively normal conditions in November 1997, prior to the big storms. The bottom photo was taken during an El Niño storm in February 1998. Along Arctic shores of Alaska, shoreline erosion and habitat loss are accelerating due to increasing permafrost thaw and sea ice forming much later in the year, leaving the coast more susceptible to waves and storm surge. Alaskan government agencies and land-use planners are relocating some Native Alaskan villages and critical airstrips farther inland from eroding shores, such as Kivalina on the northwestern coast.
The U.S. west coast is vulnerable as well. In California alone, roughly half a million people and $100 billion worth of coastal property are at risk during the next century. In highly developed coastal areas such as San Francisco Bay and Puget Sound, hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent on restoration of nearshore ecosystems, which protect shorelines from erosion by waves and provide habitat for socially and economically important species. But resource managers remain uncertain whether outcomes of these efforts will be resilient to projected sea-level rise.
Because the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise around the Pacific and Arctic vary considerably, no single solution can mitigate the impacts. Coastal communities, along with federal, state, and local managers, need better scientific information and tools to plan for the particular threats they may face from saltwater flooding, shoreline erosion, and habitat loss.
Historically, simple “bathtub” models of future sea levels have assumed a static coast—one that is neither subsiding nor rising, neither retreating nor growing seaward—and they calculate future flooding based on just sea-level rise and tides, ignoring the impacts of storms. Those models cannot adequately account for the diverse influences that affect most coasts, including sediment input, how the coast is shaped, and “forcings”—atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that force the environment to change (for example, wind and circulation patterns, wave heights and directions).
Thus, in tectonically active coastlines like the U.S. west coast, USGS seeks to develop models that incorporate sea-level rise projections combined with storm impacts, as well as potential changes in wave heights and storm patterns associated with climate change.
What the USGS is doing
Severe bluff erosion, along the southern end of Ocean Beach, San Francisco, California, including damage to the guard rail of the Great Highway (Calif. Hwy.1). The severe winter erosion led to lane closures of the highway and an emergency, $5 million revetment along the base of this bluff. This storm damage occurred during the 2009-2010 El Niño, which, on average, eroded the shoreline 55 meters that winter. We are developing rigorous research tools to understand the physical impacts that climate change and sea-level rise will have on dynamic geologic settings along Pacific and Arctic coasts. This research covers an enormous range of coastal settings: from permafrost coasts, to the Puget Sound estuary, the California coast, and low-lying Pacific atolls.
By understanding the effects of extreme storms, including coastal flooding, changes in the shoreline, and movement of sediment, we can develop better models for understanding long-term vulnerability of sea-level rise in various coastal settings, and help coastal managers and businesses plan for a changing climate.
Our areas of study include the following, with brief descriptions of each.
Climate impacts to Arctic coasts
The Arctic region is warming faster than anywhere else in the nation. Understanding the rates and causes of coastal change in Alaska is needed to identify and mitigate hazards that might affect people and animals that call Alaska home.Low-lying areas of tropical Pacific islands
Sea level is rising faster than projected in the western Pacific, so understanding how wave-driven coastal flooding will affect inhabited, low-lying islands—most notably, the familiar ring-shaped atolls—as well as the low-elevation areas of high islands in the Pacific Ocean, is critical for decision-makers in protecting infrastructure or relocating resources and people.Sources/Usage: Public Domain. Visit Media to see details.Photograph showing timber pile bulkheads built to protect residential property from erosion. Ledgewood Beach on the west side of Whidbey Island. Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.
The west coast of the United States is extremely complex and changeable because of tectonic activity, mountain building, and land subsidence. These active environments pose a major challenge for accurately assessing climate change impacts, since models were historically developed for more passive sandy coasts.Estuaries and large river deltas in the Pacific Northwest
Essential habitat for wild salmon and other wildlife borders river deltas and estuaries in the Pacific Northwest. These estuaries also support industry, agriculture, and a large human population that’s expected to double by the year 2060, but each could suffer from more severe river floods, higher sea level, and storm surges caused by climate change.Climate impacts on Monterey Bay area beaches
For a beach town like Santa Cruz, preserving beaches by mitigating coastal erosion is vital. USGS scientists conduct regular surveys of the beaches in the Monterey Bay region to better understand the short- and long-term impacts of climate change, El Niño years, and sea-level rise on a populated and vulnerable coastline.Collaborators
On March 2, 2014, 5-meter-high waves with 15-second periods struck Roi-Namur Island, Kwajalein Atoll, during spring high tides, causing the largest overwash event in the Republic of the Marshall Islands since 2008. Collaborators include USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program colleagues in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, and St. Petersburg, Florida, and researchers with the USGS Western Ecological Research Center on Mare Island, California. Academic collaborators include those from University of Hawaiʻi, Oregon State University, University of Alaska, University of California, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and University of Cantabria (Spain). Also involved are colleagues and federal partners from such agencies as the U.S. National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Department of Defense, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
- Science
Below are all of the research topics associated with this project.
Dynamic coastlines along the western U.S.
The west coast of the United States is extremely complex and changeable because of tectonic activity, mountain building, and land subsidence. These active environments pose a major challenge for accurately assessing climate change impacts, since models were historically developed for more passive sandy coasts.Low-lying areas of tropical Pacific islands
Sea level is rising faster than projected in the western Pacific, so understanding how wave-driven coastal flooding will affect inhabited, low-lying islands—most notably, the familiar ring-shaped atolls—as well as the low-elevation areas of high islands in the Pacific Ocean, is critical for decision-makers in protecting infrastructure or relocating resources and people.Climate impacts to Arctic coasts
The Arctic region is warming faster than anywhere else in the nation. Understanding the rates and causes of coastal change in Alaska is needed to identify and mitigate hazards that might affect people and animals that call Alaska home.Using Video Imagery to Study Coastal Change: Santa Cruz Beaches
Two video cameras atop the Dream Inn hotel in Santa Cruz, California, overlook the coast in northern Monterey Bay. One camera looks eastward over Santa Cruz Main Beach and boardwalk, while the other looks southward over Cowells Beach.Climate impacts on Monterey Bay area beaches
For beach towns around Monterey Bay, preserving the beaches by mitigating coastal erosion is vital. Surveys conducted now and regularly in the future will help scientists understand the short- and long-term impacts of climate change, El Niño years, and sea-level rise on a populated and vulnerable coastline.Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...Using Video Imagery to Study Wave Dynamics: Unalakleet
USGS scientists installed two video cameras atop a windmill tower in Unalakleet, Alaska, pointing westward over Norton Sound, to observe and quantify coastal processes such as wave run-up, development of rip channels, bluff erosion, and movement of sandbars and ice floes.Using Video Imagery to Study Coastal Change: Sunset State Beach
Two video cameras overlook the coast at Sunset State Beach in Watsonville, California. Camera 1 looks northwest while Camera 2 looks north. The cameras are part of the Remote Sensing Coastal Change project.Using Video Imagery to Study Sediment Transport and Wave Dynamics: Nuvuk (Point Barrow)
Two coastal observing video cameras are installed atop a utility pole near the northernmost point of land in the United States, at Nuvuk (Point Barrow), Alaska. The cameras point northwest toward the Arctic Ocean and the boundary between the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and will be used to observe and quantify coastal processes such as wave run-up, bluff erosion, movement of sandbars and ice floes...Estuaries and large river deltas in the Pacific Northwest
Essential habitat for wild salmon and other wildlife borders river deltas and estuaries in the Pacific Northwest. These estuaries also support industry, agriculture, and a large human population that’s expected to double by the year 2060, but each could suffer from more severe river floods, higher sea level, and storm surges caused by climate change.Coastal Change Hazards
Natural processes such as waves, tides, and weather, continually change coastal landscapes. The integrity of coastal homes, businesses, and infrastructure can be threatened by hazards associated with event-driven changes, such as extreme storms and their impacts on beach and dune erosion, or longer-term, cumulative changes associated with coastal and marine processes, such as sea-level rise... - Data
Below are data releases associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 13Model parameter input files to compare the influence of channels in fringing coral reefs on alongshore variations in wave-driven runup along the shoreline
An extensive set of physics-based XBeach Non-hydrostatic hydrodynamic model simulations (with input files here included) were used to evaluate the influence of shore-normal reef channels on flooding along fringing reef-lined coasts, specifically during extreme wave conditions when the risk for coastal flooding and the resulting impact to coastal communities is greatest. These input files accompanyWave model results of the central Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska
A three-level SWAN (version 41.31) nesting grid has been developed for the central Beaufort Sea coast to simulate waves over the hindcast period 1979 - 2019. The model includes the implementations of sea ice by Rogers (2019) and includes both 1) a dissipation source term and 2) a scaling of wind input source as functions by sea ice. The bathymetric dataset used for the model is the InternationalModeled extreme total water levels along the U.S. west coast
This dataset contains information on the probabilities of storm-induced erosion (collision, inundation and overwash) for each 100-meter (m) section of the United States Pacific coast for return period storm scenarios. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will respondModel parameter input files to compare locations of coral reef restoration on different reef profiles to reduce coastal flooding
This dataset consists of physics-based XBeach Non-hydrostatic hydrodynamic models input files used to study how coral reef restoration affects waves and wave-driven water levels over coral reefs, and the resulting wave-driven runup on the adjacent shoreline. Coral reefs are effective natural coastal flood barriers that protect adjacent communities. Coral degradation compromises the coastal protectCalifornia shorelines and shoreline change data, 1998-2016
This data release contains mean high water (MHW) shorelines along the coast of California for the years 1998/2002, 2015, and 2016, extracted from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) digital elevation models using ArcGIS. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) was used to calculate net shoreline movement (NSM) between the pre-El Nino (2015) and post-El Nino (2016) shorelines, as a proxy for sA GIS compilation of vector shorelines and coastal bluff edge positions, and associated rate-of-change data for Barter Island, Alaska
This dataset consists of rate-of-change statistics for the coastal bluffs and shorelines at Barter Island, Alaska, for the time period 1947 to 2020. Rate calculations were computed within a GIS using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 5.0, an ArcGIS extension developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. A reference baseline was used as the originating point for the orthogonal transecModeled 21st century storm surge, waves, and coastal flood hazards and supporting oceanographic and geological field data (2010 and 2011) for Arey and Barter Islands, Alaska and vicinity
Changes in Arctic coastal ecosystems in response to global warming may be some of the most severe on the planet. A better understanding and analysis of the rates at which these changes are expected to occur over the coming decades is crucial in order to delineate high-priority areas that are likely to be affected by climate changes. The data provided in this release are part of a study that assessProjected responses of the coastal water table for California using present-day and future sea-level rise scenarios
Coastal groundwater levels (heads) can increase with sea level rise (SLR) where shallow groundwater floats on underlying seawater. In some areas coastal groundwater could rise almost as much as SLR, but where rising groundwater intersects surface drainage features, the increase will be less. Numerical modeling can provide insight into coastal areas that may be more or less vulnerable to hazards asCoral reef profiles for wave-runup prediction
This data release includes representative cluster profiles (RCPs) from a large (>24,000) selection of coral reef topobathymetric cross-shore profiles (Scott and others, 2020). We used statistics, machine learning, and numerical modelling to develop the set of RCPs, which can be used to accurately represent the shoreline hydrodynamics of a large variety of coral reef-lined coasts around the globe.Model parameter input files to compare wave-averaged versus wave-resolving XBeach coastal flooding models for coral reef-lined coasts
This data release includes the XBeach input data files used to evaluate the importance of explicitly modeling sea-swell waves for runup. This was examined using a 2D XBeach short wave-averaged (surfbeat, XB-SB) and a wave-resolving (non-hydrostatic, XB-NH) model of Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands. Results show that explicitly modelling the sea-swell componenPhysics-based numerical model simulations of wave propagation over and around theoretical atoll and island morphologies for sea-level rise scenarios
Schematic atoll models with varying theoretical morphologies were used to evaluate the relative control of individual morphological parameters on alongshore transport gradients. Here we present physics-based numerical SWAN model results of incident wave transformations for a range of atoll and island morphologies and sea-level rise scenarios. Model results are presented in NetCDF format, accompaniProjected flooding extents and depths based on 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year wave-energy return periods, with and without coral reefs, for the States of Hawaii and Florida, the Territories of Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
This data release provides flooding extent polygons (flood masks) and depth values (flood points) based on wave-driven total water levels for 22 locations within the States of Hawaii and Florida, the Territories of Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. For each of the 22 locations there are eight associated flood mask - Multimedia
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 93A numerical study of geomorphic and oceanographic controls on wave-driven runup on fringing reefs with shore-normal channels
Many populated, tropical coastlines fronted by fringing coral reefs are exposed to wave-driven marine flooding that is exacerbated by sea-level rise. Most fringing coral reef are not alongshore uniform, but bisected by shore-normal channels; however, little is known about the influence of such channels on alongshore variations on runup and flooding of the adjacent coastline. We con-ducted a parameAuthorsCurt D. Storlazzi, Annouk Rey, Ap van DongerenCharacterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast
Traditional methods to assess the probability of storm-induced erosion and flooding from extreme water levels have limited use along the U.S. West Coast where swell dominates erosion and storm surge is limited. This effort presents methodology to assess the probability of erosion and flooding for the U.S. West Coast from extreme total water levels (TWLs), but the approach is applicable to coastalAuthorsJames B. Shope, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Curt Storlazzi, Katherine A. Serafin, Kara S. Doran, Hilary F. Stockdon, Borja G. Reguero, Fernando J. Mendez, Sonia Castanedo, Alba Cid, Laura Cagigal, Peter RuggieroGlobal and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States
This report and accompanying datasets from the U.S. Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force provide 1) sea level rise scenarios to 2150 by decade that include estimates of vertical land motion and 2) a set of extreme water level probabilities for various heights along the U.S. coastline. These data are available at 1-degree grids along the U.S. coastlineAuthorsWilliam Sweet, Ben Hamlington, Robert E. Kopp, Christopher Weaver, Patrick L. Barnard, David Bekaert, William Brooks, Michael Craghan, Gregory Dusek, Thomas Frederikse, Gregory Garner, Ayesha S. Genz, John P. Krasting, Eric Larour, Doug Marcy, John J. Marra, Jayantha Obeysekera, Mark Osler, Matthew Pendleton, Daniel Roman, Lauren Schmied, Will Veatch, Kathleen D. White, Casey ZuzakDigital Twin Earth - Coasts: Developing a fast and physics-informed surrogate model for coastal floods via neural operators
Developing fast and accurate surrogates for physics-based coastal and ocean mod- els is an urgent need due to the coastal flood risk under accelerating sea level rise, and the computational expense of deterministic numerical models. For this purpose, we develop the first digital twin of Earth coastlines with new physics-informed machine learning techniques extending the state-of-art Neural OperatoAuthorsP. Jiang, N. Meinert, H. Jordão, C. Weisser, S. Holgate, A. Lavin, B. Lutjens, D. Newman, H. Wainright, C. Walker, Patrick L. BarnardProjecting climate dependent coastal flood risk with a hybrid statistical dynamical model
Numerical models for tides, storm surge, and wave runup have demonstrated ability to accurately define spatially varying flood surfaces. However these models are typically too computationally expensive to dynamically simulate the full parameter space of future oceanographic, atmospheric, and hydrologic conditions that will constructively compound in the nearshore to cause both extreme event and nuAuthorsD. L. Anderson, P. Ruggiero, F. J. Mendez, Patrick L. Barnard, Li H. Erikson, Andrea C. O'Neill, M. Merrifield, A. Rueda, L. Cagigal, J. M. MarraAssessment of barrier island morphological change in northern Alaska
Arctic barriers islands are highly dynamic features influenced by a variety of oceanographic, geologic, and environmental factors. Many Alaskan barrier islands and spits serve as habitat and protection for native species, as well as shelter the coast from waves and storms that cause flooding and degradation of coastal villages. This study summarizes changes to barrier morphology in time and spaceAuthorsAnna I. Hamilton, Ann E. Gibbs, Li H. Erikson, Anita C. EngelstadDrivers of extreme water levels in a large, urban, high-energy coastal estuary – A case study of the San Francisco Bay
Reliable and long-term hindcast data of water levels are essential in quantifying return period and values of extreme water levels. In order to inform design decisions on a local flood control district level, process-based numerical modeling has proven an essential tool to provide the needed temporal and spatial coverage for different extreme value analysis methods. To determine the importance ofAuthorsKees Nederhoff, Rohin Saleh, Babak Tehranirad, Liv M. Herdman, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Mick Van der WegenMultiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems
As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens theAuthorsPatrick L. Barnard, Jenifer Dugan, Henry M. Page, Nathan J. Wood, Juliette A. Finzi Hart, Daniel Cayan, Li H. Erikson, David A. Hubbard, Monique Myers, John M. Melack, Samuel F. IacobellisGlobal-scale changes to extreme ocean wave events due to anthropogenic warming
Extreme surface ocean waves are often primary drivers of coastal flooding and erosion over various time scales. Hence, understanding future changes in extreme wave events owing to global warming is of socio-economic and environmental significance. However, our current knowledge of potential changes in high-frequency (defined here as having return periods of less than 1 year) extreme wave events arAuthorsJoao Morim, Sean Vitousek, Mark Hemer, Borja Reguero, Li H. Erikson, Merce Casas-Prat, Xiaolan L. Wang, Alvaro Semedo, Nobuhito Mori, Tomoya Shimura, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Ben TimmermanTwenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines
Sandy coastlines adjacent to tidal inlets are highly dynamic and widespread landforms, where large changes are expected due to climatic and anthropogenic influences. To adequately assess these important changes, both oceanic (e.g., sea-level rise) and terrestrial (e.g., fluvial sediment supply) processes that govern the local sediment budget must be considered. Here, we present novel projections oAuthorsJanaka Bamunawala, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Ali Dastgheib, Robert .J. Nichols, A. Brad Murray, Patrick L. Barnard, T. A. J. G. Sirisena, Trang Minh Duong, Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher, Ad van der SpekThe value of US coral reefs for flood risk reduction
Habitats, such as coral reefs, can mitigate increasing flood damages through coastal protection services. We provide a fine-scale, national valuation of the flood risk reduction benefits of coral habitats to people, property, economies and infrastructure. Across 3,100 km of US coastline, the top-most 1 m of coral reefs prevents the 100-yr flood from growing by 23% (113 km2), avoiding flooding to 5AuthorsBorja G. Reguero, Curt Storlazzi, Ann E. Gibbs, James B. Shope, Aaron Cole, Kristen A. Cumming, Mike BeckThe application of ensemble wave forcing to quantify uncertainty of shoreline change predictions
Reliable predictions and accompanying uncertainty estimates of coastal evolution on decadal to centennial time scales are increasingly sought. So far, most coastal change projections rely on a single, deterministic realization of the unknown future wave climate, often derived from a global climate model. Yet, deterministic projections do not account for the stochastic nature of future wave conditiAuthorsSean Vitousek, Laura Cagigal, Jennifer Montaño, Ana Rueda, Fernando Mendez, Giovanni Coco, Patrick L. Barnard - Web Tools
Below are data releases associated with this project.
Future Coastal Flooding
Prediction of Flooding Now and Into the Future: a geonarrative on coastal storms
Coastal Change in Alaska
Alaska's north coast has been home to indigenous communities for centuries. Changing coastlines threaten important infrastructure and historic sites that support indigenous communities. Changing coastlines also can potentially reduce habitat for Arctic wildlife, such as polar bears, shorebirds, and walruses. Oil- and gas-related development sites and U.S. Department of Defense installations
The Role of U.S. Coral Reefs in Coastal Protection
U.S. Geological Survey scientists have shown that along with providing food, tourism, and biodiversity, coral reefs also protect dollars and lives. This interactive geonarrative introduces the USGS research to understand the role of US coral reefs in coastal protection.
National Shoreline Change
Exploring Shoreline Positions of the United States From the 1800s To The Present. This geonarrative explains how the USGS derives shorelines from various data sources, and how shoreline change rates are generated from these data. The Natural Hazards Mission Area programs of the USGS develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation.
Real-Time Forecasts of Coastal Change
U.S. Geological Survey researchers develop tools to forecast coastal change hazards. This geonarrative features research and tools developed to forecast real-time coastal change.
Our Coasts
USGS Coastal Change Hazards research provides scientific tools to protect lives, property, and the economic well being of the Nation. The mission of the USGS Coastal Change Hazards Program is to provide research and tools to protect lives, property, and the economic well-being of the Nation. This is a story map that introduces the value of our coasts and the threats they face with global change.
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Below are partners associated with this project.